I thought I would do a series of bios and scouting reports on some of the prospects who might be available for the Giants to draft in 2013. With the draft order set for the first round and set for everything but some possible trades of supplemental round picks and a FA or two re-signing with their team, the later rounds are close to set, at least close enough to look at players who might be available in that general area of the draft. Of course, it's easiest to project players for the first round, but as we go along, we'll try to find hidden gems who could be good pickups later in the draft. I think we did a pretty good job of that in 2012.
Overall, the 2013 draft is shaping up to look similar to the 2012 which has been labeled by many observers as relatively weak, but I think will prove to be underrated. One thing you have to understand when reading about a draft is that most draft experts rate a draft based on the top 5-10 picks, and there are very good reasons for that. What I find interesting about the 2012 and 2013 drafts is that while the top 5-10 picks are indeed relatively weak, teams found and will find prospects that are almost as good as the top picks as late as the 2'nd and even third rounds.
Ordinarily, you would not want to be holding a top pick in a year like these, because you would be spending $$$ on a player who is not much better than one you could get for a lower bonus much later in the draft. With the new bonus cap rules, though, teams with high picks can do what the Astros did and draft a player who will sign for significantly under slot and then use the leftover money to draft overslot players later in the draft. This proved to be the likely best strategy for the 2012 draft and 2013 will likely be similar. On the other hand, if you have a year in which the top 2 or 3 picks are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the pack such as a Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper, a team might want to use the lions share of their bonus cap to pay the top pick and then draft college seniors with the rest of the top 10 picks. Drafting as late as the Giants have in the last few drafts takes away the luxury of moving money around in the draft, mostly because there is not much money to move around! In this situation, it's probably better to just go vanilla and take the best player available at each spot.
The Giants have been careful to avoid losing draft picks in recent years and with changes in free agency rules that is likely to be the case in 2013 too. I did raise my eyebrows just a tad when I saw a note on MLBTR yesterday that the Giants may have interest in signing Nick Swisher who was offered a qualifying contract by the Yankees. Swisher does not seem like a great fit for AT&T Park to me and that may keep him from signing with the Giants even if they are interested, but if he were to sign with the Giants, they would lose the 27'th pick in the draft, which I suppose is a small price to pay for a solid MLB player like Swisher.
The first prospect to catch my eye in early draft prognostication who seems to be hovering on the fringes of the first round and thus might be available for the Giants to draft is HS RHP Chris Oakley. You all know how much I like big pitchers and Oakley is certainly big, listed at 6'8", 230 lbs. Oakley is from St. Augustine Prep in New Jersey. He is committed to North Carolina, so could be a bit tough to sign. His BD is 8/20/1994, so will turn 19 shortly after the draft, although I don't worry about age as much with pitchers.
The scouting report on Oakley is a fastball that runs 89-92 and touches 94-95. He has projection for more velocity in the future. He has a pretty good bender already that projects as a possible plus pitch and he's working on a split-change.
From videos I've seen, he is very well proportioned for a big, tall kid. He has a very simple, upright delivery with a short stride that he seems to repeat well. The uprightness of the delivery gives his pitches a nice downhill plane. He might be able to add velocity with a longer stride and more drive in his legs, but would he lose command?
There are multiple videos available on Youtube. I'd urge everybody to check them out and make your own judgements about him. I would be happy to see his name next to the Giants at #27 on draft day. There are many other players that would make me happy though.
I have to acknowledge Matt Grabusky and Big League Futures for much of the information for this writeup.
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You like them big pitchers, and apparently so do the UNC coaches, they are constantly recruiting giant giant kids.
ReplyDeleteI got a friendly disagreement on those lines, insanely tall pitchers scare me to death.
That Swisher note scared me a bit, but I think his price will be too rich with 6 teams involved. The one thing to note about the draft pick order is it is a moving target - depending on who signs these comp offer guys, the Giants could move up from the 27 potentially all the way to 20, although it'll most likely only be a couple places, maybe the sweet #24!
I went to ESPN home run tracker for Swisher and Hunter and overlaid PacBell on their 2012. Swisher would be heavily frustrated by the RF notch, and Hunter's were almost all LF no-doubters. I'm on team Hunter, although the news that Ned Coletti and his checkbook are in pursuit dampens my hopes a bit, we don't want to go chasing him, we want him to take 2/20MM to come and win a ring.
Saw the Affeldt comments on another post, I agree. I expect a 3/18MM and some serious teeth knashing, but I think its a great sign, just a tad expensive because he's the best lefty and one of the best RPs overall on the market.
That note in MLBTR caused me to look up Swisher's splits. His L-R BA's are about equal but he hit 19 of his 24 HR's LH. I was ready to pounce on the notion that Yankee Stadium's short porch was a huge help to him, but his Home-Away HR split was equal. I agree, though, it seems like his power would shrivel up in SF and that is a huge part of his value.
DeleteGood point about the potential to move up in the draft due to the new CBA compensation rules. Lost draft picks now go poof instead of transferring to the team losing the FA.
DeleteFYI, study by BP found that, for whatever reasons, the older prospects drafted in round one tend to be overrated, whereas those younger then to be underrated, and thus tend to be the best picks.
ReplyDeleteThat's very interesting because I would have thought it was the other way around. Age vs level is almost a religion with BA and most other draft/prospect watching sites.
DeleteWhat's great is that the Giants are in a good draft position to not be reaching for "need" picks. Power in the outfield would seem to be their only big position weakness. Otherwise more pitchers please.
ReplyDeleteGood point, MS. They are also in good shape to have flexibility in drafting HS vs College so they should be able to truly go Best Pick Available.
DeleteLast year worked out nice because the BPA for both the first and second rounds happened to be exactly where the need was, pitchers who could move fast and be ready by 2014 or 2015.
BTW, Weren't the GM meetings this week? Did they even happen? Haven't heard a peep of news about them. Didn't Brian Sabean skip it altogether last year, or am I misremembering?
ReplyDeleteya...beane voted exec of the year
Deletethey were supposed to discuss rule changes
did you know that sakata is back in the cal league with the rox? was there all season as manager
and think he isnt a bit miffed over never getting even a single nibble to manage in the bigs?
http://seattletimes.com/html/mariners/2009341304_sakata16.html
I like Sakata. He did a good job managing the SJ Giants once upon a time. Is Lenn Sakata more deserving of a MLB managing gig than Ron Wotus or Steve Decker? Roberto Kelly? There are just 30 MLB managing jobs at any given time. Not everybody who is qualified is going to get that chance.
DeleteAmy G did an interview with Mrs. Flannery and Tim's wife made a great point. She tells girlfriends and wives of young players who are sitting on the bench or playing part time that Tim is an example of how it's possible to carve a nice long career in baseball without ever being a star or even a starter or the GM or manager. Tim has accepted his role, performs it with joy and enthusiasm, has his music and his family to give him joy outside of baseball. He's just a happy guy!
There are a lot of people out there who would feel like they lived a dream if they could have a career in baseball like Lenn Sakata's.