The 2012 Arizona Fall League is in the books. Here are the final stat lines for Giants prospects with some comments:
Chris Dominguez(OF)- .317/.364/.585, 3 HR, 2 BB, 17 K's in 43 PA. We've seen Chris hit like this in small samples in the past, but the frightful K rates eventually catch up to him. You could say you'll accept a very low BA in return for the dingers, but when he's not hitting, he doesn't hit HR's either. At age 26, time is running out. He probably needs a full season at Fresno to see if there is any ray of hope. If not, then he needs to take his incredible arm to the mound.
Gary Brown(OF)- .313/.357/.375, 0 HR, 2 SB, 3 CS, 5 BB, 14 K's in 69 PA. Much better results than last year's AFL. With a full season of AA experience plus a successful AFL under his belt, he should start the season in Fresno where I expect him to put up very good numbers. The CS continue to be an issue and are starting to be a serious concern as SB's figured to be a significant part of his value.
Ricky Oropesa(1B)- .234/.373/.362, 2 HR, 11 BB, 16 K's in 58 PA. Considering he was coming off his first professional season and has not played AA ball yet, I think Ricky did OK. He has a relatively high K rate but also draws a lot of walks. My personal observation is that Ricky's selectivity gets him into a lot of 2 strike situations which inflate his K's. Given the Giants overall philosophy, I wouldn't be surprised if they work on getting him to swing earlier in count.
Joe Panik(SS)- .205/.295/.269, 1 HR, 10 BB, 7 K's, 4 SB, 0 CS. Once again, fascinating numbers from Panik as he hit for a low BA while putting up reversed K/BB. The fantastic K and BB numbers had Fangraphs Scout Leaderboards ranking him as the 4'th best hitter in the AFL! Oh, and he had twice as many SB's as Gary Brown. Again, Panik has not played AA ball yet hopefully this experience against more advanced competition is good preparation for 2013.
Chris Gloor(LHP)- 2-2, 2.70, 30 IP, 11 BB, 22 K's. Gloor had a successful conversion to SP in AA Richmond last year and he built on that here. Does that get him a AAA gig next year? Nice write up in current BA. He says relieving helped him develop his slider and now he has 4 pitches he can command. Ceiling is a back of rotation starter or left-handed relief specialist.
Jacob Dunnington(RHP)- 0-1, 6.75, 9.1 IP, 4 BB, 14 K's. He allowed 3 runs in 0.1 IP in his next to last outing to inflate his ERA. K rate looks promising. Very small sample size.
Heath Hembree(RHP)- 0-0, 3.00, 9 IP, 3 BB, 12 K's, 2 Saves. I think the main thing Hembree proved here is he is healthy. I see him starting out in Fresno with a high probability of a mid-season callup. Outside shot to make the 25 man roster out of spring training.
Dan Runzler(LHP)- 1-1, 3.38, 8 IP, 7 BB, 11 K's, 1 Save. Not really a prospect anymore. This was more of a rehab assignment for Runzler who got a special dispensation to play in the AFL. Overall, he pitched really well except for his next to last appearance when he gave up 2 runs and 3 BB's in 0.0 IP. With 2 bullpen lefties under contract and Mijares probably coming back too, it's not clear where Runzler fits in with the Giants. With a shortage of LH pitchers in MLB, it would seem like a trade could be in the offing.
Ryan Bradley(LHP)- 0-0, 9.00, 2 IP, 2 BB, 2 K's. Bradley was a late add to the AFL roster appearing in just 2 games. He's the son of Giants minor league pitching coordinator Bert Bradley. I would expect to see him pitching in Richmond in 2013 as younger pitching prospects will be flooding the roster in San Jose.
In other winter league action:
DWL: Juan Carlos Perez- .265/.292/.426. Todd Linden- .253/.380/.493. Roger Kieschnick- .228/.308/.391.
VWL: Ehire Adrianza- .268/.378/.390. Boof Bonser- 0-2, 3.65, 24.2 IP, 8 BB, 14 K's.
Roberto Clemente League(Puerto Rico)- Johnny Monell- .273/.429/.409.
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Was Kieschnick's winter league work something closer to rehab since he missed a chunk of the season this year? I liked his numbers in Fresno before he got hurt and was hoping he might have an outside shot at showing what he has in LF some time this year.
ReplyDeleteThe Giants have a history of rewarding players who do winter ball regardless of the numbers. It will, of course, depend a lot on what happens this offseason, but I would think Roger K will get a long look this spring.
DeleteAlso, Kieschnick did very well in AAA until his injury, so that along with his winter work bodes well for him getting a chance to be one of our utility OF and probable spot starter in LF should Blanco stalls offensively at some point (which appears likely, but we'll see, maybe he'll make the leap).
DeleteAnybody know if Blanco is playing winter league this year in V? Hard to top being MVP last season, but he probably could use more reps.
Just realized a bit of an anomaly. At the end of the season, Blanco was hardly starting at all, as Nady was getting most of the starts, and while Gregor got some, Belt got just about as many there too. Yet, during the playoffs, it was all Blanco.
Now parts of that I understand. We faced mostly RHP during the playoffs, plus, as we saw from his stellar defense, it appears that Bochy wanted the best defensive unit out there. But that appears to be a clear change in handling by Bochy.
Thus, that dichotomy suggests that the meme that Bochy lucked out with Ross since Guillen was suspended is false, as Ross was clearly the hotter hitter than Guillen by the end of the season, and clearly better defensively, and thus he would have most likely started in 2010's playoffs even if Guillen had not been suspended. Just a thought.
Guillen grounded into a game ending double play in game 161. That turned out to be his last AB as a Giant. I upset a whole room full of sauv blanc sippin' ladies with a loud curse, my wife was mad at me for half the night... I agree, Bochy does emphasize defense, and Ross was clearly the superior defender. I think the Guillen/Nady comp is good though, 2 guys almost past their expiration date just trolling for some power. That's the story I get from all this.
DeleteTablesetters Brown/Panik are now 2 year vets of the AFL showcase. Is it a reflection of what's in the Giants system or what the Giants think of them? I think both. Maybe I'm emphasizing contact rates a little too high, but I am going back to the pre-season reviews of both players as well as the reactions right after they were drafted. My conclusion is that they are both getting nitpicked and put into a top prospect bracket that really doesn't fit them. Prospects fail all the time, but their early stumbles followed by solid play gives me hope, not scorn. A lot of scorn has been thrown up for them from national prospect writers as well as the Gints interwebz. Big seasons next year for both. I bet Brown gets a long look at camp, and they'll make a determination whether to placehold for him or give him a shot. Panik has to brave the big bad Eastern next year. That'll be interesting.
ReplyDeleteOn the RP arms front, I love Runzler's stuff but I just can't believe in his ability to throw strikes in leverage situations. I think you're right about trade bait, but his potential makes him hard to let go of. Very psyched for Hembree's health, and I hope that secondary pitch is coming along. Both these hard throwing gents would look awful pretty in our pen, if those issues get worked out.
On Ricky O - I hope you're right, I'm really rooting for him. The contact rate is in the low 70s, and as much as I want to throw a hopeful Pat the Bat comp on him, Burrell hit 300 in the minors to go with the Ks and BBs and HRs. I wouldn't say it was a bad first year, but Ricky does need to make some adjustments, and the low BA to go with the low contact rate does scare me a bit. But here is where Giants prospect hounds might be getting unrealistic and impatient with our last couple years of drafting. Give him a couple years before burying into a Chris Dominguez comp.
I do think that's what the Giants are doing though - taking a shot on the contact issue light-tower-power guys, hoping to cure the contact issues enough to get out of Kingman/Deer territory. Mac Williamson's good contact rates in low-A might be a success, but might be a college guy feasting on bad pitching.
Any thoughts on Johnny Monell breaking through? I got laughed off the minorleagueball thread for suggesting him as a sleeper. LH batting catchers don't grow on trees.
I think Johnny Monell could be a backup catcher for a MLB Team at some point.
DeleteI think that Monnell could break through as a backup catcher as well. His 2009 suggests that he has some batting discipline skill there to tap into, though he's been wild most years swinging. He has not hit that badly either, particularly for a catcher, and especially in EL this season. Being a lefty helps as well, in terms of being a bat on the bench. He showed a little speed lower in the minors, stealing and triples, in SJ, maybe he can be a little bit of everything: good enough bat, some speed, some power, some patience, some defense, off the bench. He could be like Stewart, though, and not stick in the majors until his 30's.
DeleteI think it is a reflection of both what the Giants think of them and that they want to see how they do against better competition, gives them a better framework than the regular season, where there is lumpiness in talent faced. And, yeah, of what is in the Giants system too.
DeleteI agree that they are being nitpicked. It is the tyranny of being a "first round pick". As my draft research showed, not all first round picks are alike, those, like them, in the back third of the first round, are really more like the prospects following them than the ones ahead of them, because the odds of finding a good player is just that much less in that part of the draft.
It is the other side of the same coin for the prospects who are not "top prospects", and one bad season spoils the whole barrel for some people, like Pablo as he was rising up the system, he had that one hiccup and even when he had a good season in a subsequent season, he couldn't even break the Top 30 by BA.
Also, people's impression is strongly affected by the early impressions. Since they both struggled early on, attention fades and few notice how well they do later, particularly since all you see is seasonal batting lines, not monthly splits. That is why I focus more on trends, particularly with prospects, over a season, sure, SSS is in effect, but when there is a sharp and sustained change, I think that is significant. But a lot of people don't think much of this analysis, I've gotten a lot of flack over the years on this.
yes, big seasons, but I'll be OK with another stumble followed by pretty good hitting. They are not top prospects expected to be great players in the majors, like Posey was or even Belt, they are good prospects, top for us because we've been winning and we traded our clear #1 away in Wheeler.
That's why I think MLB GM's generally appear to not really scout that well, that they use BA as a shortcut sometimes. Sabean can trade away the Top 10 prospects he has that is not on his Keeper list, as that has cache for the opposing GM. But I noticed that when he has trouble making such trades, it is because he has a clear keeper and the other teams are stuck on their BA Top Prospects book, and demand that keeper, whether Cain, Lincecum, Bumgarner, or Posey. I think Belt belongs on that list as well.
I agree that Brown will get a long look in camp, even longer if we end up not signing Pagan or another clear starting CF. I think Panik will get a long look too, because he's getting closer to the majors. Panik might do well in EL because it is usually the big homerun hitters who get messed up there, the free swingers.
I have to wonder what amount of stat watching the Giants (and other teams do) compared to working on improvements that get relayed from the manager to the front office. I think the managers opinion counts for a helluva lot more than the stat line. We forget, but its really about grinding away. You do your job, you master what you're told to master, and then if there is room above you, you move up the depth chart and onto the next level of the organization.
DeleteI still think Brown has the chance to be a special player, not just a solid regular. Panik, I think he is more of a solid regular type as an upside. Sure, these guys can totally be 4th OF/utility IF types, that happens all the time. But I'm not conceding that over 2 slow months to start the year. That's not enough rope.
I've read that part of a minor league manager's job is to file a progress report on every player after every game. I would hope they are not doing all that work just to have it filed somewhere while a stats guy in the back office just looks at an end of the year stat line.
DeleteShankbone, I totally agree with your assessments of Brown and Panik, and totally with the usual caveats. The biggest issues, to your point somewhere here, is his puzzling inability to utilize his stellar speed into stolen bases. He seems like a smart guy, so that to me suggests that this is a coaching/instructor issue. Just hire some ex-Giants with SB-ability to teach him intensively during spring, like Billy North, Randy Winn, Darren Lewis, heck, give Rickey some love and he'll come a-running.
DeleteTablesetters Brown and Panik I view differently.
ReplyDeletePanik seems to be in line for 2B starting in 2014/5 and playing along the lines of Freddie Sanchez or Scoots. Solid D and a gritty put-the-ball-in-play hitter. I think his track record of second half improvements shows an ability to learn his craft at a level. Yup, the Eastern is going to be a BIG test for him. Don't see him dominating, but if he improves over the year I will be very happy. Just see Panik as a solid player learning his craft.
Brown concerns me more. I see him possibly getting overmatched at the MLB level. I think pitchers will be able to overpower him and he will tend to do more looking, reaching and guessing than really hitting. The CS is also big red flag. If his offensive position and value is leading off, then steals need to be part of his game - and they are critical to the Giants scoring runs. If his speed is an 80, yet his CS is a 30, then this ain't much good. Maybe you can't steal 1B, but so far Brown can't steal 2B either.
Like what Mac W has shown so far. Let's ee more of those contact/power stats this year.
Runzler's saving grace is he is a LHP with stuff. He will be getting opportunities until his mid 30s. Let's hope he can show more command this Spring, as the Giants ideally will need a cheaper LOOGY when Lopez gets too expensive in 2014.
Re: Gary Brown. The SB/CS rate is not up to snuff. He has 80 speed, but either his training or his instincts aren't up to snuff. There's an article on sfgiants about the AFL and he's quoted about it, talking about the need to approach it like an AB. Ideally you want 80% success rate. Brown went 53 and 19 SB/CS in SJ for a 73% rate. Last year in Richmond he goes 33 and 18 for a 65% rate. No bueno. I imagine he got exposed against pitchers with advanced pickoff moves and better backstops. I do not have the amount of pickoffs, but I did listen in to games and read summaries, and the guy got picked off 1B a lot. No bueno.
DeleteThe pitchers overpowering him, I'm not so sure about. He has a bad split in Richmond against RHP, which is a concern. He has excellent bat speed and he's stronger than he looks. I don't think he'll get overpowered as much as outsmarted until he makes mechanical adjustments. But I gotta go back to initial reviews of the guy, he is a natural hitter, with 300 BA potential. I think a couple rough months in the eastern is a punch in the mouth but not a knock of that potential. But I do think its a valid concern, the struggles against righties. Is he too ingrained/stubborn to adjust? I don't think we get that answer in Fresno, it'll come in the big leagues.
Good points.. I'm wondering if the Giants have a base running coach to work with G Brown on his base running instincts during Spring Training? Maybe the perfect coach to bring in is Brett Butler..
DeleteDrb Thanks for posting the AFL stats.. Great stuff..
Happy Thanksgiving...
LG
Shank, yeah I know I being too "gut-feel" on Brown so thanks for the feedback. I just think he has relied on his speed and innate natural ability too much. In the bigs you got be able to adjust AB to AB, so talent can get you there, but smarts allows you to stay. I think Brown is in for a rough intro when he steps onto Willie Mays Plaza field.
DeleteLG, it sure would be interesting to learn from Brown what process, coaching, etc., the Giants have provided to him to improve his base stealing.
I think Roberto Kelly has some experience teaching baserunning. Maybe he could work with Gary B.
DeleteGreat point. Roberto Kelly managed Burriss in Augusta I think, and they ran wild that year. Come to think of it, maybe Kelly was Burriss' guardian angel on the Gints all these years.
DeleteI was going to put what Shankbone put, when Kelly managed for us, we had a bunch of guys running wild, using their speed. Our minor league baserunning instructor last season was Henry Cotto. And he was roving instructor. Nothing against him, but he wasn't that great a base stealer in the majors.
DeleteWe used to have Darren Lewis (who Bake named his son after) as our instructor previously. I would have loved to have secured Dave Roberts but he's a SD native and wanted to return to them. Given all that money we gave him, felt he owed us something more.
What's Willie McGee doing nowadays? Brett Butler would be fine (saw his name somewhere) but he grew up loving the Dodgers, whereas Willie was a Bay Area native. Heck, Rickey Henderson is looking for a job, I think, maybe give him a shot.
Looking at the minor league teams in the media book, it struck me that there is a hitting and pitching coach on each team, but no base stealing/running coach. I can't imagine that they are paying these coaches that much money, but that could explain why Brown is still getting caught so much, he needs better tutoring. Heck, given his significance, maybe the team should just hire one guy to work with him all the time, or just make it "Fresno" only, as if it is only for AAA but really for Brown to learn, this is not acceptable with him entering AAA next season. That was the only real setback I felt Brown had in 2012, that his CS just still looks so bad.
Stealing Rickey would be funny. Hey, ya'll took Chili Davis, we're taking Rickey.
DeleteI can't prove this is true, hard to tell league by league, but the thing that impressed me about Brown was that he learned to hit better in every league he has been in, and in college was able to dominate. In the Big West, out of the 7-8 seasons I could find up to Brown's season, there were only three hitters who hit as well as Brown did: Evan Longoria, Kurt Suzuki, and a third guy who appears to not going to make the majors, Kyle Blumenthal. And Brown outdid both Longoria and Suzuki.
DeleteHere is what I wrote back then:
Plus, Brown was the top hitter for one of the top teams in the nation that regularly makes the College World Series. And he was the top hitter in a conference that produced both Evan Longoria and Kurt Suzuki, both of whom he out-hit. And Fullerton is also one of the highest ranked teams in the U.S. by Boyd's World, 5th by Iterative Strength Ranking, 8th by RPI, showing how good the team was, and he was the best hitter on that team, even better than Christian Colon.
Brown (2010): .438/.485/.695/1.180, ISO 257 (9 BB/12 SO in 210 AB)
Colon (2010): .358/.444/.630/1.074, ISO 272 (32 BB/18 SO in 257 AB)
Longoria (2006): .353/.468/.602/1.070, ISO 247 (40 BB/29 SO in 201 AB)
Blumenthal (2005): .410/.511/.557/1.068, ISO 147 (39 BB/21 SO in 183 AB)
Suzuki (2004): .413/.512/.702/1.214, ISO 289 (50 BB/25 SO in 252 AB)
I think this part of the equation gets glossed over. I really feel like Brown has a special bat. Sure, the prospectin' is littered with failures, but the other factor that gets trotted out is him being "old". Everybody seems to expect him to move at the pace of a Posey/Clark type, and that I find unreasonable.
DeleteDo you think there is any chance that Chris Dominguez could come out spring training as a power threat off the bench and work in as a backup 1B, LF, or emergency 3B option for Bochy? I know this may seems crazy, but who is going to serve as the backup at 1B this year? I am not advocating the giants do this, but think it could be a possibility.
ReplyDeleteI don't think anyone written about here is ready to be a significant contributor next year. Hembree might play a role, but these numbers indicate that no one else is ready. With Posey and Pablo, the Gs don't need a true backup first baseman. If they hang on to scoots, they will still an everyday outfielder to play either center or left. Not sure where they turn for that. Need a Sabean scrap heap special.
ReplyDeletePosey makes sense as the other 1B. Somehow I missed that, thanks
DeleteI believe Brown and Dominguez will start the season in AAA and Ricky O and Panik will be in Richmond. Gloor will be either AA or AAA. Hembree in Fresno. Dunnington probably in AA. Runzler??????
DeleteWill they go with 3 catchers?
ReplyDeleteIf they do, could Monell be one of them?
The Giants had plenty of opportunity to go with 3 catchers in 2012 and passed. I don't see the doing it in 2013. They will need to have someone playing at Fresno who could be called up at any time in event of in injury to one of their catchers. Monell could be that guy with CStew and Eli both Yankees now(that is just amazing!).
DeleteI think Williams is probably first in line to take over for Eli as the org #3 catcher...
DeleteBench gets too thin with two backup catchers,mleaves only three utility players. Only way that works is if you have one who plays all infield pos, one who plays all OF, and one who can play all over, like DeRosa could, he played LF, RF, 2B, 3B all at high defensive value, too bad he. Did not pick the right doctor. Burriss, if he could just hit for some power, appeared to be groomed for that. He supposedly has strong forearms but then nothing when he hits.
DeleteGiants add Nick Noonan, Edwin Escobar, Jake Dunning, Chris Heston and Juan Perez to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. No word on any drops.
ReplyDeleteFrom what I recall, they had a lot of space on the 40 after releasing Hensley and sending Burriss to Fresno and other moves.
DeleteGo Noonan!
Yeah OGC! Noonan is finding his way back in the mix. Love it.
DeleteI was surprised at Juan Perez but he did put up nice stats in the Eastern.
I can see Gloor getting poached like Joe Paterson the other year. And as somebody who was a tad angry about the Gints not protecting him, I have to add that the D-backs sent him down early and left him there last year. Sometimes we get fired up about silly stuff. Even though Sabean said something about they should have protected him, its also a low on the totem pole priority. Just noting this one, because its not looking like the great loss some thought it would be.
Yeah, I could see some team that is starved for pitching out there taking a Rule 5 flyer on Chris Gloor. Is he eligible?
DeleteYup. I can also see some team taking a chance on Brock Bond. Thoughts? Although the rule 5 is really dropping out of favor. The Yanks are very active though and they appear to love our fringe guys.
DeleteIs Escobar Rule 5 vulnerable? How many years has he been with the organization?
DeleteCan someone explain?
Yep, Escobar is now protected from the Rule 5 - he has 5 years of pro ball under his belt. It's 5 years under 18 at time of signing, 4 years over 18 at time of signing. He came over from Texas. He is only a year older than Mejia and put up very nice numbers and innings at Augusta. I'm liking him a tad more than Mejia at this point.
DeleteThanks!
DeleteDunning - they like their shortstops turned pitchers.
ReplyDeleteHow does he compare with Nathan at this stage?
Would you mind doing a hypothetical post? I realize it is a pipe-dream, but am curious to see what you and your regulars think would be a good list of prospects and or current roster members for one OF from Florida named Stanton. Normally power, for me anyway, isn't very important...however, with his tools!!!!
ReplyDeleteThanks for all you do Doc.
Tom in Thailand
fish wont be trading mike. he is still cheap and their only draw. and when they are ready, the asking price may be too high
Deleteand while baseball is a biz, its a crime to send a single player to the fish
bacci
OK, as long as we understand that it ain't gonna happen, I'll take a stab and say it's 4 for 1: Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, Kyle Crick and Heath Hembree. Would I pull the trigger on that trade? Yeah I would. Ain't gonna happen. First of all, I don't believe Stanton is on the block and secondly, there are teams out there who could put together better packages.
DeleteSubstituting Hector Sanchez for Panik might be a stronger package, but doesn't change the basic dynamic.
DeleteThe thing you have to remember is the Marlins ARE actually trying to win (at SOME point). Albeit under relatively extreme financial limitations.
DeleteIt would be an huge bummer if the Marlins win the World Series, say in 2015 or 2016. This methodology sucks.
I think Doc is right. While Stanton isn't completely unavailable, it would take a TON for the Marlins to bite.
Looks like Jonny Gomes is gonna be off the market. 2 year deal with the Red Sox coming down the pipe apparently. Cody Ross - too much demand or too out there with his own demands? We'll see in a bit...
ReplyDeleteCody Ross seems like a nice, unassuming guy, but also seems to have always had an inflated opinion of his own market value.
DeleteUnassuming guys don't usually flip the bat like that. : P
DeleteYeah, shame about Gomes. Seemed like a nice fit.
I know, right, DrB? Though I have to put a large part of the blame on the agent too. It is his fiduciary responsibility to let his client know when his bargaining position does not match up with the market in a gross way. Reminds me of Aurilia wanting something like 4 years, $40M, and instead he ended with a one year deal with the Mariners for like a tenth of that total size. Hey, this works out for us if Pagan should fall through, and he might even get a multi-year deal, if he finally realizes that he's asking for way too much. I think the Giants would be open to multi-years at the right salary.
DeleteYeah, too bad about Gomes, thought he might like to play for the Giants, but I don't blame him for not wanting to wait to see how Pagan situation works out when he has a 2 year deal in the hand, can't keep that team waiting too long.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8657402/mlbpa-leader-michael-weiner-good-fight-inoperable-brain-cancer
ReplyDeletethe above totally sux
probably the best labor leader in the entire country
since he took over, not a single issue has come up and new agreements are signed without incident, with all sides being happy (sans minor leaguers)
by all accounts, a very good man too
put a man on the moon...created the net....but we cant kill cancer?
bacci
Sorry to hear that. Brain, Pancreas and Lung CA's are real SOB's. Key seems to be early detection. Haven't made much progress on that front with these bad boys.
Delete