Saturday, November 17, 2012

Down on the Farm: Minor League Ball Giants Top 20 Prospects

John Sickels has posted his Giants Top 20 prospects for 2013 over at Minor League Ball(minorleagueball.com).  Here they are.  You might want to go check it out for his comments.

1.  Kyle Crick, RHP
2.  Chris Stratton, RHP
3.  Clayton Blackburn, RHP
4.  Gary Brown, OF
5.  Joe Panik, SS
6.  Heath Hembree, RHP
7.  Mike Kickham, LHP
8.  Martin Agosta, RHP
9.  Andrew Susac, C
10. Francisco Peguero, OF
11.  Mac Williamson, OF.
12. Chris Heston, RHP
13. Steven Okert, LHP
14. Stephen Johnson, RHP
15. EJ Encinosa, RHP
16.  Josh Osich, LHP
17.  Adalberto Mejia, LHP
18.  Edwin Escobar, LHP
19.  Adam Duvall, 3B
20.  Ricky Oropesa, 1B

Others:  Ehire Adrianza SS, Bryce Bandilla LHP, Brett Bochy RHP, Gustavo Cabrera OF, Jesus Galindo OF, Ian Gardeck RHP, Conor Gillaspie 3B, Joan Gregorio RHP, Cody Hall RHP, Tyler Hollick OF, Chuckie Jones OF, Rogers Kieschnick OF, Chris Marlowe RHP, Shilo McCall OF, Mason McVay LHP, Keury Mella RHP, Nick Noonan INF, Shawn Payne OF, Eric Surkamp LHP.

Around the League:  Melky Cabera agreed to a 2 year/$16 M contract with the Toronto Blue Jays.  I think Melky is the best value on the FA market and will tear it up in Toronto and the AL East where he should hit more HR's than in the NL West.

Giants are reportedly still focused on re-signing Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro who are testing the market.

47 comments:

  1. hate lists. think melonhead jr has a very good shot at breaking camp. giants have ok depth at every position but sabean is gonna have to dumpster dive again to fill out sp for fresno

    melky will be ok in toronto. he has friends on the team. its not a media intensive market, so he wont be facing constant ped questions and jays should be a solid team.

    would be great if the jays and the o's led the east all season...will drive the eastern media crazy

    bacci

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    1. As I say every year when I put out my list, don't get too hung up on the exact order of the list. The main benefit of the exercise is to become better acquainted with the prospects in the system.

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    2. Kickham, Heston, and Gloor will all be promoted to Fresno. Surkamp will probably be there when healthy. Not sure about the rest of the Richmond staff, but I think this year is actually the first in a couple years where the Giants will have some legit prospect reinforcements on deck for the staff.

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  2. i think his grades are fair. there are no apparent stars in the system, but i believe that panik, brown, payne and ricky have a shot to make a name as do a few of the arms

    wonder why he didnt even note chris d.

    bacci

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    1. Chris Dominguez is getting to be very old for a prospect and still hasn't hit with any consistency. Power hitters sometimes figure it out late and I wouldn't give up on Chris quite yet, but I can see why he might leave him out of the discussion.

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  3. I think I am most excited to see how Blackburn and Williamson do this year. Blackburn seems to have lights out stuff with Williamson having really good raw power. It has been awhile since we have had a corner outfielder with a lot of power and hitting from the right side will definitely help him at AT&T. I am scared that we are not developing enough LHP's. Seems like all of our top pitchers are RHP's. We saw how important that was against Detroit. Madbum and Zito were almost untouchable. Plus Detroit started 4 straight RHP's. I have to think that was a huge problem for them. Playoffs can be about momentum and if they could have captured a win early it could have changed the series. Better luck next time Detroit.

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    1. I agree that righthandedness was a problem for both St Louis and Detroit in the postseason. Giants have Kickham, Gloor and Surkamp who have pitched at AA who could eventually be middle of rotation starters. It's also possible that 1 or 2 out of Bandilla, Osich and Okert could emerge as a starter down the road. Don't forget about Mejia and Escobar too. Also, the upcoming draft is very deep for LHP's so there is opportunity to stock up there. I'm not too worried about the LH pitching.

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  4. If they like to keep 2 lefties, will they attempt to retain Zito at a short, cheaper deal?

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    1. If he pitches in 2013 anything close to how he pitched in 2012, Zito will almost certainly be back in 2014 as the differential between his option salary and buyout is about $11 M. After that, I'm hoping the Giants have some reinforcements from the farm that they can plug in.

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    2. I think even if Zito pitches like he did last year they opt him out. His market value would be about 2 years/11M, not 1 year/11M.

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    3. Well, we'll see. Right now, I say there's at least a 50% chance Zito is a Giant in 2014.

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    4. If we are paying Zito what he is worth no problem.

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    5. Well, Zito is not worth $20 M. Problem is there's this buyout thing that guarantees him $7 M in 2014 whether he plays for the Giants or not. If he's blocking a prospect who can be just as good for minimum wage, fine. If that's the case, here's the $7 M and bye-bye. If they have to find a replacement on the open market, it's going to be a bit tough to find one as good as Zito was in 2012 for under the $12 M differential between his option salary and the buyout.

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    6. If I understand it correctly, 200 IP in 2013 triggers the option ANYway.

      He's never had 200 IP as a Giant, but has had 199, 196 & 192. So, it's possible, though not likely, but (sorry to repeat) very possible that he triggers the 2014 option.

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    7. If Zito has a similar year, I do not see how the Giants do not pick up his option in 2014, other than one of our upper level pitchers pull a Vogelsong and do really well in AAA. Especially if we repeat in 2013.

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    8. If Zito pitches like he did this year it'll be a tough call for the Gints, depending on the rest of the pitching development. Everybody gets a good yuk at Zito's expense, but pitching at the MLB level is no joke. He's a good 5th starter getting paid insane overtime. His pitching backwards this year was very impressive, the stat line looked like same ol' Zito, but I think he was different. Should be an interesting year. Doubt his profile lets him get to 200 IP, but as Kelly noted, he got close a lot of the time.

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    9. I just don't see how he's worth 11M either. Nowhere close. Kuroda just had a 1year/10M deal.

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    10. Kuroda and Kyle Lohse just got 1 year/$13 M qualifying offers from the Yankees and Cardinals respectively and TURNED THEM DOWN because they think they can do better on the open market!

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    11. Indeed. I think the 4/5 starter is still getting paid duckets. Look at all those guys on Coletti's payroll in various states of injury. Zito has only been injured once, and it was most likely because of that car accident.

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  5. Last year with a ton of catchers as top prospects you knew one of them would be trade bait. Now with a surplus of pitching who would you be willing to give up to get a decent return?

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    1. I hope not. Or at least I hope the urgency is down. There will be a lot of spots to fill in the rotation over the next few years.

      There's only one catcher and there's a 25 year old MVP sitting there. So having three legit prospects behind him was a true surplus.

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    2. Kyle Crick is a kid with enough ceiling to get something of value in return, yet has some riskiness to him that might make Sabes be willing to pull the trigger.

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    3. I would be okay trading Crick if he was the centerpiece of a deal for Giancarlo Stanton. His right handed power would play in LF perfectly. That is the type of move that I would make to go for another title.

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    4. I very much doubt that Stanton is on the block and if he is, there are plenty of teams out there with more firepower to put into a trade. I really don't think he's coming here!

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    5. Yeah, I've seen some Stanton fantasy's on a couple boards. That just is not happening. It'd take a top 10 prospect, or two, and a poo poo platter of a system's top ten. Fun to dream on, but the first crack the Gints might have will be 4 years from now, and I'm sure we'll have something fun going anyways by then, as we do now.

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    6. Loria is terrible, but not stupid. It's no coincidence that everyone else is gone and Giancarlo remains. He's not going anywhere.

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  6. Brown and Panik just about held their own at a higher level, so I'll be happy that they've been topped by the pitching corps. Nice to see Oropesa make the top 20 - when I was following the AFL didn't seem like he was doing to well. I'll probably head over to MLB for more comments - I heartily recommend the site - even if the commentators can be hypboilic, reactionary and sometime suffer from either sabergroup think or i-played-NCAADiv1-ball-know-it-all-itis, there are good people in the middle ground and Sickels is transparent, honest, and open in his methodology, rationale, and rankings.

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    1. Ricky had his ups and downs in the Cal League but put up solid power numbers and led the team in RBI's which still count for something in some people's minds. EL will be a huge test. Hopefully the AFL served as a way of getting his feet wet against the level of pitching he will see in AA.

      I think Ricky did OK in the AFL considering he was one of the lesser experienced players there and only got to play about twice per week.

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  7. The great Panik debate: when do we start calling him a second baseman? In any case, Sickels still has him listed as a SS, and that is still where he is playing. Not that I blame you for putting the 2B next to his name. On the other hand, Noonan - who made the swap to SS last year in AAA - is listed as INF.

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    1. The Giants sure are stubborn aren't they? I like asking people who've made the trek to SJ about his arm, and most say its a 2B. If you believe in Crawford its a slam dunk. I look at it as Panik has extra value as being able to fill in SS handily, if Crawford is hurt, lacking or we have some 2B that comes in. But the good thing is Panik immediately becomes a plus 2B. That is good stuff. The left handed Freddy/Scutaro comps will come raining in, and then the Mike Fontenot counterclaims! Hard to tell so far, but if you look at his overall stat line I like it a lot. Over 2 years he's at 312/379/424 and that includes the slump to start the CA league. Everybody expects total domination of the CA league or else. I don't think that's fair, especially somebody with Panik's gap hitting profile. Power can fall in last as far as skills picked up.

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    2. Some sort for Freudian slip there. Changed it to SS which is what I intended in the first place. I still think Panik is going to end up at 2B, though.

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    3. Shankbone,

      Agree that expectations in the Cal League are completely unrealistic.

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    4. I think the problem with both Brown and Panik with fans is that they set their expectation that because they were our top prospects, therefore, they are potential stars. While I think that is a possibility, if every works out, where they were drafted, we are looking realistically for competent starters as our most likely hope, and prospects like that will have stumbles up the ladder, here and there. What Brown and Panik has done is disappointing from a Posey or Bumgarner point of view, but neither are on a talent level with them, so that, in my view, is not fair to them.

      Both Brown and Panik had nice seasons, I thought, not the best obviously, but I think what we should be more looking for, is areas of progress and improvement. Both, after starting slow, heated up appreciably. And both are getting more practice against tougher competition in the AFL. Brown has admitted that he didn't fully take advantage of his AFL opportunity last season, and learned from that. And Panik, while not doing well this time, I view AFL action as small samples at work, so I don't get really discouraged by AFL performance, but can get jazzed about someone.

      I think both are in a good spot for 2013 and for continued progress up the ladder to the majors. Panik is playing SS for full trade value should the Giants get an offer they can't refuse (teams always like SS prospects), I think. I would prefer keeping him but if we get someone good for him, I'll be OK. However, to me, Brown is a keeper, he fits our lineup's needs in multiple ways - leadoff, CF, on-base, speed, defense - that we don't have right now, and qualities like that is hard to get, else Pierre would never have had as long a career as he has had.

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  8. Richard in WinnipegNovember 18, 2012 at 8:26 AM

    DrB;

    I would like to know if there is any blog/ site etc where I can see ranking specifically by position, including starting pithcers/ relief / closer.
    I have done a little in the past for my own knowledge of the system. It is a very unscientific approach. Let me know. My personal email address is > rhhinds@hotmail.com
    Thanks

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    1. I am not aware of anythiing like that. I did a depth chart for each position last offseason for the Giants that probably comes as close to any. I would think any ranking system of prospects would be fairly unscientific, so yours is probably as good as any.

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    2. I enjoy that depth chart, I like looking at it from that angle instead of the standard ranking thing, which gets out of hand sometimes.

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  9. Richard in WinnipegNovember 18, 2012 at 2:07 PM

    Ok then, I will sit down over the next few weeks; and try my hand at it again. I will share my thoughts at that time. By the way, I watched game 1 and game 4 last night. Never gets stale, watching Verlander expressions, and then of course Cabrera, anitcs after Romo does him in. These Giants make me feel so warm here as winter approaches our nothern climes.

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    1. 2010 was all about just having the experience of winning one before I die. 2012 was more about respect and shutting up the people who were calling 2010 a fluke and luck. Different feelings but both really great.

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    2. Here here, DrB, totally agree!

      Yes, never gets stale, I still get all misty hearing Fleming with his Renteria call. Can't wait to buy the videos for this World Series, they will be repeat viewings in the future.

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  10. I am not familiar with a few names, such as Mella and Encinosa.

    I look forward to your annual prospect list to know more about them.

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    1. Mella pitched in the Dominican Summer League in 2012. Encinosa was a college reliever out of Miami who was one of many strong armed college relievers drafted by the Giants in 2012.

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  11. Decided to place the links here. Fanshot at MCC has interview with Giants scout in DR:
    http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2012/9/30/3432058/interview-with-a-dominican-republic-giants-scout-part-1-of-4
    http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2012/11/19/3665398/interview-with-a-dominican-republic-giants-scout-part-2-of-4

    If you go into the YouTube video, you can pull down the transcript. Guy really raves about Angel Villalona, thinks he can be in the majors in a year if he could only get his visa approved. Too bad the interviewer didn't ask if Angel can still play 3B or not, that would give us some flexibility in where to place him.

    Lots of information on other DR prospects, but I had to note the Angel reference. Oh, he also really likes Francisco Peguero as well.

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    1. OGC - that poster is SFGiantsgirl, and she is a great example of some of the cool stuff that goes on at MCC. Not all snark, my friend. Her enthusiasm is very infectious, she even has the old prospect hounds like Roger being cheerful.

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    2. Roger? Cheerful? Is that even possible? LOL! Just got through reading the discussion on Minor League Ball re. Sickels' Giants Top 20 Prospects. What a hoot! Glad I'm not a member so am not tempted to get into THAT fray!

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    3. It started very well, the Sickels conversation. It veered a bit, as it seems to do every. time. Brandon. Belt. Gets. Mentioned. That guy is a lightning rod for arguments. I think this years 20 prospects was much more positive than last years.

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    4. I know there is good stuff. Thanks, by the way for pointing them out for me. FlaGiants and you have good stuff there too. Some of the arguments drive me crazy, like the Belt stuff on sickels. Roger is the one who ripped me a new one, and unfortunately he is often in on the prospects stuff I think is the last refuge for interesting conversation. If he were one of them, it probably would not bother me as much, but I see him reply often with something I would say, so it is not like I can write him off as stupid or ignorant. I just prefer not to see his name too often, that is all, if you can sympathize.

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  12. What do you think the giants would have to give up to get andrelton Simmons? And would the giant need many more pieces than just him to get upton? Obviously people like Kyle crick and gary brown would need to be involved.

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