The Giants lost a meaningless final game of the season. Key Lines:
Justin Christian- 2 for 5, 2B. BA= .255. I really like this guy(Can't really call him a kid). He had a terrific minor league campaign and hit .345 over his last 10 games in the majors, raising his BA from .136 to .255 in the process. I wouldn't mind him as a 5'th OF option next year.
Mark DeRosa- 2 for 4. BA= .279. DeRosa might make a pretty good bat off the bench for some team next year. Probably not with the Giants, although if all that's out there are minor league deals, it might be worth a MLB deal with a low base salary and lots of incentives.
Andres Torres- 1 for 2, 2 SB(19). BA= .221. Not sure what to make of Torres. I definitely wouldn't tender him a contract for abitration. Maybe he'll realize that free agency might not be a friendly pool to jump in and he'll accept a deal for $800-1000K.
Jeff Keppinger- 1 for 4. BA- .277. Can't see keeping him around if FSanchez is healthy. Maybe they go ahead and re-up him, then trade him in spring training if he's not needed?
Eric Surkamp- 4.2 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 5.74. I really think Surkamp has a higher ceiling than this. He just needs to get confident at this level. On the other hand, this shows why scouting reports and velocity matter. You can't just look at stat lines on prospects.
Well folks, that's all she wrote for this season. Wait 'til next year!
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thx for all your hard work
ReplyDeletesurkamp has some work to do in the offseason
velocity matters but so does movement and accuracy
couple things...rollins says he wont leave the phils unless offered a 5 year....cya
and then there is this
J.J. Hardy was among the shortstops considered by the Giants last winter, but he went to Baltimore in a very low-risk deal with the Twins. Hardy hit his 30th homer for the Orioles on Wednesday night, and he led all AL shortstops in fielding percentage.
there was my parting "eff you sabes" shot for the year
and yes i know tb is a bandbox....but still
Thanks Doc! YOU had a great year, anyway!
ReplyDeleteI don't know if anyone had a chance to watch all of the Wild Card races last night, but they were phenomenally entertaining.
Atlanta goes extras to lose to the Phillies in 13 and out. What was the lead they blew in Sept???
Boston leads the Orioles 3-2 into the bottom of the 9th and Papplebon blows the save!!! Before the Red Sox even get to the locker room:
The Rays complete an 8-run comeback on the Yanks: 6 runs in the 8th, 1 run to tie in the 9th, and Longoria goes yard in the 12th to win it.
Camden Yards was PACKED with Red Sox Fans. It was absolute bedlam after the Orioles win. You'd have thought THEY were going to the playoffs.
Check the Yankee pitching line. 11 pitchers. Were they even trying to win against the Rays?
September 1st leads in the Wild Card:
ReplyDelete8.5 for Atlanta
9 for Boston
Wow. Epic collapses.
Papelbon had two outs and two strikes on Reimold too.
Thanks, Doc, for all your labor of love on this blog. I still think the Giants would be in the post season if not for all the injuries. The loss of Posey seemed to knock the Giants' universe off its axis, as John Madden would say. The rest of the injuries just added on but the Giants season was actually lost back in May. Despite the disappointing ending I have followed the team and your blog to the end. I hope you will still be writing during the off season and especially look forward to anything you have to write about the AFL, winter league ball, and especially your prospect write ups. Thanks again!
ReplyDeleteHey, thanks everybody!
ReplyDeleteJJ Hardy had a great season, but don't forget he had missed the better part of 3 seasons before that with back problems. The Giants were fortunate to get a rebounding Huff in 2010, the O's were fortunate Hardy stayed healthy in 2011. Luck does play a role in these things.
The Wild Card races were indeed gripping affairs. Add an extra playoff spot and all that drama goes away. Something to think about. Too bad the Giants played so poorly in LA and Arizona or they might have been in the thick of all that.
It's pretty tough to believe that Buster Posey alone wouldn't have been worth at least 3 more wins over the course of the season. With as many low scoring games as this team lost, probably more. Add up all the other injuries and I have to believe you add on another 2-3 wins. All that adds up to an indentical record as last year and another post-season berth. Injuries were clearly a huge difference maker. Even then, they might have overcome if Huff and Torres have seasons anywhere in the vicinity of 2010. They both had 5+ WAR seasons in 2010 and were even or possibly negative WAR in 2011.
All things considered, the team did amazingly well. I just don't understand all the hate for Bochy and Sabean. I think Bochy may have done a better managing job this year than last and the Giants are still as well positioned for the future as any team in baseball except maybe the mega-spenders and what's Boston doing this post-season?
I will be posting from time to time this offseason, but I will not be holding myself to a daily post. Just when the spirit moves me and I have something to say. That might be close to every day or it might not. I will plan to post my DrB's Giants Top 50 Prospect list around the first of January and then will make daily posts running it down going into spring training.
Dr B Thanks for a great read all year. Can't wait for the Top 50. Its a relief this season is over.
ReplyDeleteJJ Hardy's stats make him a white whale, but he was hurt the first 6-8 weeks of the season, and the luck with injuries we had it would have been worse. The O's got a nice deal on him, but Sabean signing Tejada lowered their asking price a lot I think. Still, a terrible rushed signing on his part.
Huff and Torres playing below replacement instead of top 20 is huge, Buster is the biggest blow by far, his leadership stops that August slump. Not having clutch hits from Burrell and Uribe (hey clutch hits aren't a stat - they don't exist!) made a huge difference as well. The most frustrating aspect for me was the pile of proven veteran suck at shortstop. And Brandon Belt. But mainly the injuries just killed.
Bashing Bochy is popular these days, I think when people take a step back he didn't have much choice. It would be nice for him to have a set lineup, it gets pretty frenetic at times. If Sabean could only get him only one proven veteran toy this year to play with it'd be nice, but I'll still take him over 75% of the managers out there. He handles the pen really well.
Anybody getting their blood up should look at what happened to the Braves last night - both Venters and Kimbrel were absolutely gassed from overuse and they got taken down. Considering how Dusty and Felipe treated our pitchers, our obvious strength, take a moment to thank Bochy for that. Our starters are absolute rocks. Finally, Ryan Vogelsong was one of the coolest stories in a long time, and it was really fun to watch him pitch, especially at home.
Its going to be a very interesting off season with some hard decisions. Last year there was talk of Carl Crawford - look how that's worked out. Sometimes the best moves are made creatively without much money.
Thanks much for a great read again. Go Gigantes!
Good point on Bochy and handling the Giants pitching Shank.
ReplyDeleteI hope the Giants are patient this off season. Yes, a couple of bats would be nice, but I'd much rather use that money to keep the core of our pitching together for at least 2 more years. Get the right FA deal at the right price, or none at all. As poorly as standing pat seems to have worked this year (and the injuries didn't help) I'd rather see that than an overpay for Reyes, or, dear God no, Beltran.
Beltran is about as uninspiring player as I have ever watched. (disclaimer: I was squarely in favor of the trade at the time)
Thanks for all the great posts this year DrB!
ReplyDeleteThat's the Twins, always screwing themselves into the ground by overplaying their hand and ending up with less in a trade. Anybody remember what they got for Johan Santana, one of the best pitchers around at the time?
But if you wait around for them to make up their minds, then there might be nobody left in free agency who you could pick up. We did luck into Huff last season. That's why I like that Sabean moves fast and goes for the best option among the free agents. It is just unfortunate that best does not equal good most of the time. But that is life when you cannot fill all your position internally, you have to sign a free agent.
I would like DeRosa back, but it sounds like he really wants to be near home and Atlanta is it, so as long as they offer him a minor league deal, he should be gone.
Besides, not sure if there is space for him on bench. Torres probably on bench, I think Giants do something similar to Fontenot last off-season, and I don't think he wants to leave. Then you probably got Pill on there too. They you got Burriss and Gillaspie. That already is four spots on the bench, and we have not added Fontenot yet.
I too don't understand all the hate either, DrB. Makes me feel sad, but not as much anymore, I'm beginning to give up on the haters. I have an innate desire to save these people by showing the way to understanding, but I'm realizing that they would rather wallow in their hate than be saved.
Reminds me of guys on Usenet, they just are wired to be negative about the Giants. Like that cartoon character in the 60's on Gulliver's Travels: "It'll never WORK!" They were miserable during the 2003 season, I showed them my analysis why the Giants should have a great season, and I was patted on the head and told "nice work" but "it won't happen". FYI, first met Grant there and he was part of that group, so that might explain him to you.
Beltran I agree is underwhelming as a leader, but if he can hit .900+ OPS, that's OK because Posey should be our leader next season. Not much room for a lot of leaders in the kitchen, anyway. I'm only worried about injury, so short contract please Giants!
You have to love this article on Eugenio Velez being that he is a Dodger. I guess we got rid of him at the right time:
ReplyDeletehttp://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Perfect-Dodgers-8217-Eugenio-Velez-sets-recor?urn=mlb-wp21402
Thanks again for the comments, everybody!
ReplyDeleteEugenio has to be one of the worst, yet most entertaining players I can remember. I've gotten more pleasure and laughs out of watching him play and from the Velez jokes out there. I remember when he was with the Giants, Vin Scully loved him. One night he came in to pinch hit or pinch run or something and Vin said he was built like a "graphite shaft." LOL!
I don't really see how Beltran comes back, irrespective of the cost. The first hurdle is getting him to play LF. Nate is, accoriding to Bochy on the day after presser, pretty much penciled in to RF, largely because of his outstanding D in ATTs RF. We have lots of cheap LF options: Belt, Pill, Christian (as 5th OF) - and it is probably not a good idea to sit those guys. What we need is CF and SS. So, Beltran, as attractive as he is batting 3d, ahead of Posey, with his cost and average D is just not a priority, in my mind.
ReplyDeleteI also worry/wonder if our favorite 2011 story, Vogelsong, will be at least an average 4th starter next year...? His second half was considerably weaker than his first half. Thoughts>
Allfrank.
Allfrank,
ReplyDeleteGotta agree on Beltran after reading Baggs' summary of the postmortem. When Sabes says Beltran's market is going to take time to develop, I think he's as much as saying he ain't gonna be back in SF.
Sabes was pretty clear, actually. 1. He's going to get the pitchers signed first and then see what he has left over. 2. RF is Nate's job to lose. 3. There is no in-house option for CF. He might as well have just shouted "I'm signing Coco Crisp!"
Crisp would be good on a 1 year deal but that means Torres is gone. I am not sure that is a good idea. Torres was great in 2009 and 2010 but fell off in 2011. Was it his injury to start the season. In any case last year his line was .268/.343/.823 with 43 doubles and 16 homers. Are you willing to risk that he doesn't come close to that next year? I am not. Crisp does steal alot of bases but even with 49 he only managed to score 69 runs in 583 AB's. So that is why I have never really been big with stolen bases. Crisp's fielding % is better but Torres still plays some mean D. I am still putting my money on Torres to come back somewhere between 2011 and 2010 because 2010 was a monster year for him. Maybe it will sustain us for most of the year and the right trade could present itself from a struggling team wanting to cut payroll. My money is on Torres working out in his True Religion jeans in P.R. and getting really healthy. Also, w/o the cameras following everyone around there will be much less pressure. Let's stick what we have in the OF unless Beltran wants a 2 year deal which won't happen. Please do not sign him for more. Let him and Barry Zito walk into the sunset together. Let's focus on SS. Rollins would be nice for 3 years. He plays good D at SS and can take the pressure off of Torres and hit leadoff so he solves 2 issues at once. Put Torres in at 6th or 7th in the lineup. We lost several games with bad D at SS. Those games could have been enough to put us in the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteWe need to non-tender Whiteside and let Stewart be the backup. Lincecum likes him better anyways. Let's sign and trade Keppinger. I think he has value. Let's sign J Sanchez and hope his value goes up by the trade deadline. Maybe he can redeem himself if he just keeps the walks down. Let's sign Fontenot as the infield backup. He is cheap and is pretty clutch. Give Huff the offseason to get in shape and if he isn't producing by mid May, then dump or bench him permanently. PLEASE KEEP LOPEZ. That guy is awesome. That is it for now.
I would think Torres has no value on the open market. Maybe he would accept an offer of 800-1000K? I think he has that much value as a defensive replacement at worst.
ReplyDeleteI agree that Torres has no value on the open market. Frankly, as poorly as he did in 2011, he would be lucky to get a minor league contract. 2011 is "I told you so" for most Torres naysayers. I think a Fontenot-esque deal like last year should work with Torres. Lot of good risk-reward with him as 4th OF, I think if he can get his meds straightened out this off-season, he can have at least a good enough year for us in CF/leadoff, we don't need a 2010 to do well, if he can just be Crisp-esque, our offense would be fine next season with Posey back.
ReplyDeleteRollins has publicly said that he wants 5 years and estimates of what he will get range in the $12-14M. To that I say: no way.
I think the Giants avoided saying anything about Brown so as not to put pressure on him, but I think along with Brandon and Brandon evaluations this off-season, how Brown does in AFL will also affect their calculus.
If they think he can come up mid-season, then they might roll the dice and see if Torres (and a cheap CF competitor) can handle it in 2012, else Brown. If Brown falters, then they will look at Crisp, who fits the model of what Sabean looks for, so I agree with everyone that he's the obvious choice.
FYI: according to MLB Trade Rumors Elias estimation, Keppinger is a Type-A player if he were a free agent. Have to keep him just for that, either as backup should Franchez take longer (again) or to trade once clear Franchez is OK. Or maybe he becomes backup and jettison Fontenot, but that probably means Burriss is the backup SS then.
You guys think Torres doesn't have value on the open market? It only takes one, and his name is Ned Coletti. I agree they will most likely lowball Torres with a Fontenot offer somewhere between 1.5 and 2MM. He doesn't accept Ned will be there waiting with a pen.
ReplyDeleteCrisp has quite the injury history. I'm curious what he will get coming off a year where he put up good numbers. While 330 OBP is an improvement over what the Giants put up, I'm not sold on Crisp as a leadoff guy. My guess is Coco gets 2/16 or 3/21, and I'm not a fan of that.
I guess there's always David DeJesus who will probably be cheaper than Crisp and will also probably only want 1 year. He doesn't really have the leadoff hitter vibe that the Giants seem to be looking for though.
ReplyDeleteAngel Pagan is probably going to be non-tendered by the Mets. He'll probably be more expensive than Torres, but he also had a better season.
Big fan of Angel Pagan. Mets have to pay him 5MM, lowball him or cut him lose. His nickname is Crazy Horse, how can you not like that? His stats look like... Coco Crisp with fewer injuries and years. Cheaper with more upside than Crisp or Dejesus.
ReplyDeleteThere are more trade/non-tender possibilities out there. I'm working on a post about potential CF for the Giants next year.
ReplyDeleteSabean is basically saying that he thinks they rushed Belt, Crawford and HSanchez this year so I think they'll hit the brakes on Gary Brown. I'd say it's almost a certainty that we won't be seeing him until 2013 at the earliest.