It's an off day for the Giants and no minor league games tonight either. I thought I'd try something I've been toying with in my mind for awhile. Q/A's seem to be popular on other blogs. Let's try it here. Might be great or it might bomb.
I'l try to answer any baseball related question, Giants, MLB, Prospects, draft, fantasy, whatever is on your mind, baseball related of course.
Fire away. Feel free to join in the discussion at any time.
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Here's an interesting one:
ReplyDeleteBest prospect on each Giants' affiliate? I.e. best SJ Giants prospect, best Grizzlies prospect, etc.
Julian,
ReplyDeleteGood one.
Criteria: Still with organization, still a prospect by BA criteria, spent most of year at given level or finished year at given level:
AAA Fresno Grizzlies: C Hector Sanchez (I'm not counting the final brief stint at San Jose which was just a place to stash him or a few days).
AA Richmond Flying Squirrels: OF Francisco Peguero; RHP Heath Hembree (Tie).
High A San Jose Giants: OF Gary Brown
Low A Augusta Greenjackets: OF Rafael Rodriguez
Short Season Salem-Keizer Volcanoes: SS Joe Panik.
Rookie AZL: OF Leonardo Fuentes.
Dominican Summer League: LHP Adalberto Mejia
This isn't so much a question as it is seeking feedback:
ReplyDeleteFor some reason, I'm not that excited about Peguero. There's something about his inability to draw a walk that concerns me.
Also, tell me something encouraging about Belt. I know the yo-yo story, and am convinced it impacted his development negatively, but I've still found myself a tad disappointed with him. What makes him different from other former Giants prospects that should have been good, but weren't?
Finally, will Crawford be our starting SS next year? WIll he hit enough to make his defense that valuable?
Thanks,
Lucky
I think that being in the PCL, and Dodd (not sure about Richmond), hurt the development of Giants position players. If you had the choice, where would you put the Giants' AAA and AA affiliates, taking into account proximity to SF as one of the factors, and why?
ReplyDeletewhich goes first?
ReplyDeletewilson's beard...or bochy's mind
Aloha Drb, Who would you rate as the top 10 prospects in the Giants Organization? I'm sure a few of the players mentioned above are on this list.
ReplyDeleteLG
Drb,
ReplyDeleteHave you noticed anything watching Brandon Belt play that has left you wondering maybe he may not be as good as the hype surrounding him? I think Belt was called up too soon, but will develop as a good major league hitter given time. Is he still the #1 Giants hitting prospect?
Hello Doc,
ReplyDeleteI have 2 questions about the catching depth in the Giants organisation :
Buster, Sanchez, Susac, Joseph,
How do you rank them today and where do you see them in 3 years ?
Buckart, Murray, Burg(?), Monell and Williams (!), which one will have a shot at the ML level ?
GIP
DRB,
ReplyDeleteTaking your absolute best guess, does Belt ever become a good MLB player? By good, I mean a starting 1B (when Huff gets out) that puts up 20-30 HR, nice OBP, etc.
Seems like you've been asked tons of questions about Belt and sorry to add to the pile, but just wanted an explicit "yes" or "no" in terms of your opinion on his future. I'm not claiming to know anything about swing mechanics, scouting, etc...but just looking at him now, I'm seriously questioning the scouts' (namely, Keith Law) ravings over Belt.
-Luke
DRB,
ReplyDeleteI was looking forward to Rodriguez's progress in Augusta, but his numbers have been absolutely underwhelming. What are your reasons for choosing him? Wouldn't Bretty Bochy and Duvall (granted they are a bit older) be consideration for the better prospect in Low A?
Wow! Thanks for all the questions! That's more than I was expecting, and that's a good thing.
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, I again totally forgot about Surkamp when I did the top Prospect for AA Richmond. I'll add him and call it a a 3 way tie. How's that?
Lucky,
ReplyDeleteI cut a bit across the grain of most prospect analysts these days and do not pay much attention to walks in the minors. Pablo Sandoval did not start drawing appreciable numbers of walks until he was well established in the majors. I know a lot of folks would ridicule this, but the single most important stat I look at in hitting prospects is BA. #2 is power. You can use either HR or SLG%. If the player does not have power, then I look at SB's. If they have both power and SB's that's great, but very rare. I don't ignore OBP but I would much rather have a prospect hitting .320 with an OBP of .340 than a prospect who its .250 with an OBP of .350. I know goes against current sabermetric dogma but a prospect has to be able to make conistent hard contact, and they have to have a certain amount of aggressiveness up there. In short, I'm still high on Peguero.
I will answer all the Belt questions in a separate comment.
Short of signing Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins as FA's, yes, I think Brandon Crawford should be the shortstop next season. Hopefully Posey can come back at catcher and take some of the pressure for offense away from the SS position. I think Crawford will eventually hit given his approach at the plate.
Brandon Belt:
ReplyDeleteI think Brandon Belt was rushed too fast and then yo-yo'd to death. I think the yo-yo'ing may have hurt his prospects long term, which is a shame.
His strengths are his size and athleticism. His one big weakness, oddly enough, is his height and extraordinarily long arms. He's got to find a way to cover the inside corner of the plate. I have seen him do that, but not consistently. The fact he has done it on occasion gives me hope that he can eventually do it consistently.
I've noticed that he's been choking up varying amounts on the bat. I don't know if this is to help him get wood on inside pitches or if it was to compensate for the broken hand. I think he should choke up at least 3/4 inch a la Barry Bonds and Hunter Pence. He has enough natural leverage in his arms that it won't hurt his power or his ability to reach outside pitches and hit will help him get around on the inside stuff.
Lastly, He needs consistency. The Giants need to decide if they think he's learned all he can in the minors. If so, he needs to be starting at either 1B or LF next year and be allowed to stay in one place long enough to work through whatever adjustments he needs to make. If he still has things to learn in the minors, he needs to go there and stay most of the season and get them learned.
Still high on Belt, but time to retrench and re-think his development needs.
Anon,
ReplyDeleteDodd Stadium in Norwich, CT was absolutely detrimental to Giants hitting prospects. I think Richmond is fine, although they might want to consider moving the fences in a bit. I like the challenge the hitters face in the Eastern League and think all Giants hitting prospects should spend at least half a season there to toughen them up.
Fresno is a fairly neutral stadium, but because of the division the Grizzlies play in, they play way too many games in high elevation desert cities where sinkers don't sink, breaking balls don't break and flyballs fly forever. The hitters aren't challenged and so don't develop like they should. As to where they would move, that's tough. What about Portland Oregon? The climate there is closer to what they will be playing in when they get to the majors.
Bacci,
ReplyDeleteIt's WAY past time for Wilson's beard to go.
Current Top 10? This is just off the top of my head, so don't hold me to it:
ReplyDelete1. Gary Brown
2. Joe Panik
3. Tommy Joseph
4. Heath Hembree
5. Eric Surkamp
6. Francisco Peguero
7. Chuckie Jones
8. Leonardo Fuentes
9. Jesus Galindo
10.Rafael Rodriguez
11. Adalberto Mejia
Catcher depth chart?
ReplyDelete1. Buster 2. Tommy Joseph 3. Hector Sanchez 4. Susac
Susac could leapfrog to #2 depending on how he performs in the pros next year. Love Sanchez' ability to switch hit. With his progress on defense, Joseph has turned himself into a serious prospect. Think Mike Napoli with at least average defense.
As for the others, I think Burg has a great shot at being a reserve due to his ability to play several positions and his ability to hit. Monell has a great shot at having a long career as a backup/fringe starter due to his ability to hit lefthanded.
Rafael Rodriguez? Don't forget he did not turn 19 yo until late this season. He was very young for the level, even though it was low A. He can repeat the level for another full season and still be young for his level. The SAL in general and Augusta in particular are tough on hitters. All he had to do in my mind was hold his own in that environment. While his numbers didn't look good at first glance, they also did not crater, which they easily could have. I'm still a big RafRod fan. High risk but very high ceiling. His biggest challenge will be the same as Belt's. Don't let his height become a negative.
ReplyDeleteHey,that was great everybody! Keep em coming!
ReplyDeleteWhich one is real ?
ReplyDeleteB.Bochy and his 53 SO in 39 innings or K.Bilodeau and his 0.00 ERA in 14 inning.
GIP
Hey, two french names there! Bochy's numbers are much more real than Bilodeau's, although way too early to draw much of a bead on Bilodeau's potential.
ReplyDeleteWith the return of AnVil, where do the 1B play next year? I would like him to start in SJ, but I think that job is already slotted for Oropesa. Does that bump AnVil to Richmond? That is a tough assignment for a guy who has been out of baseball for a year plus.
ReplyDeleteWhy do you think the org has not retired 22 yet? My heart says it is only a matter of time, but it is over 15 years now since played for The Good Guys, so I am beginning to lose faith.
ReplyDeleteOne more...
ReplyDeleteOverall, how do rank the '07 draft now, 4 completed drafts later?
Sure, we got Bum, and essentially Franchez out of the draft, but to have 5 first rounders, and have 4 of them completely bust out is NOT good.
OK, Doc, here you go:
ReplyDeleteAt the end of the season, avid reader Bill Neukom shocks the press by firing GM Brian Sabean and hiring as GM an expatriot physician/baseball-nut now living in the Inland Empire. Neukom tasks the doctor with restructuring the team with the concurrent goals of contending for the WS in 2012 and contending for the division consistently over the next half dozen years. Neukom gives him only a bit of flexibility in the budget.
Describe the team's moves in the doctor's first 90 days.
calsnowskier,
ReplyDeleteRemember Angel has not been in the organization for a few years so most likely he will be in the Dominican Republic until he shows the scouts that he can even make it. Also, he needs to get a Visa to come back and that might take a little time. I think that we shouldn't get all worked up about him because I think the Giants may be just taking him back to avoid a lawsuit and don't really plan to move him fast through the organization. I hope he comes back swinging hard and supposedly he has lost some weight. But lets not forget about Pill. He is hitting great in AAA and now in the majors albeit only 2 games. If Huff keeps playing like he is then maybe Pill will be playing first next year. I am not buying into the Price Fielder or Albert Pujols sweepstakes. Giants do not need a 20-25 mil/year bat who can only play first.
Roger,
ReplyDeleteThe Visa issue is legit, but I have read that it is really just a formality. ASSUMING he gets that settled, I think the Giants will get him out of the DR and NEVER let him return. Maybe starting him in Augusta is the right play, though.
CSS,
ReplyDeleteAngel Villalona is a wild card right now. It isn't even official, as far as I know that the Giants have settled with him on his lawsuit. Assuming they do, I wouldn't be surprised if next year is treated like a rehab year in Rookie Camp and the Arizona League. That is not out of character for how the Giants handle rehab cases.
CSS,
ReplyDeleteI believe retired numbers for the Giants are reserved for HOF'ers. Since I don't expect Will the Thrill to make the HOF, I don't expect to see his number retired.
CSS,
ReplyDeleteAlthough a lot of people had higher expectations for the 2007 draft, a lot of teams would be deliriously happy to have Madison Bumgarner be the only product of their draft, so it's a success before you go any further.
As you mentioned, Tim Alderson turned into Freddy Sanchez without whom the Giants might not have won the World Series.
Still too early to write off Noonan or Culberson as busts.
Later rounds of the draft produced Dan Runzler, Joe Paterson, Steve Edlefsen, Dan Otero and Johnny Monell, so there are still several players in the organization and out who have or might make an impact.
I think the big problem with the 2007 draft has more to do with unrealistic initial expectations than a failure to produce.
Jim,
ReplyDeleteI actually think the Giants are as well positioned for the long term future as any team in baseball so I'm not sure I would restructure anything.
If there is money left over to sign some FA's after the pitchers get paid, I'd try to focus it all on one big bat, most likely Beltran, hopefully for no longer than 3 years.
Otherwise, I'd just keep on doing what Brian Sabean has been doing. Drafting well and building up the farm system and work those guys in as they are ready.
Big decisions coming up: Which young players(pitchers) to sign long term. I think they have to try to keep Timmy and Cainer even if it takes 6 year contracts. I'd trade Wilson before signing anything long term with him. Probably Sandoval too. I don't trust Sandoval long term with his weight issue.
Thanks for the Q&A Dr. B!
ReplyDeleteI agree with you to a point on your low emphasis on walks in the minors, but I do place a fair amount of value on K rates vs walk rates since it gives an idea of plate discipline and how well a prospect can control at bats. If a prospect shows a lack of discipline that does not get resolved while moving up the ladder it does not bode well for continued success at the ML level, unless, as you mention, the prospect has some other tool that can offset the shortcoming, such as elite power or speed.
Doc you're awesome. thanks a lot.
ReplyDeleteI would add to DrB's excellent reply that picks in the late 1st round, like Alderson and Fairley, did not turn out to be a good MLB player in roughly 90% of the picks over an 18 year period (80's and 90's picks), from my study of the draft.
ReplyDeleteSo it is not unusual that the Giants failed so far in that 2007 draft with so many picks in the late first round and the supplemental round after that (people refer to that as part of the first round but I am loathe to call it that, as the rate of finding good players drop even further there).
Take for example the A's famed 2002 draft, they had 6 picks from 24-39 (16 total picks) and the best they could do was Joe Blanton, who has been serviceable, but not what I would call a good player. The rest fizzled, though Teahen got a lot of ABs, but his WAR is still negative according to BB-REF so I would not call him a success at all.
In 2003, 3 picks from 25-33, three nothings (but lucked out with Ethier at 62).
in 2004, 4 picks from 24-40, only Huston worked out. I would not call him a very good player, but good enough to count if you want.
13 picks, Huston, Blanton, and pretty nothing else.
My study of picks in that range showed similar results for other teams that were consistently winners over a good period of time, Braves, Yankees, Giants.
And looking at the drafts, year by year, it is clear that identifying good players is still very much an art, even with the top picks of the draft, though those picks are like fishing in a barrel compared with trying to find a good player in the last third of the first round (picks 21-30). And it just gets exponentially tougher from then on.
I agree with most of what DrB wrote in comments, I think he had great answers, thanks!
ReplyDeleteAbout Peguero, I agree that not taking walks is not a non-starter for me either. I think that the player's contact rate (opposite of k-rate basically) is an important peripheral to watch for. Peguero is just short of what I would consider a good level for that, despite playing in leagues where he's in the main age range, so he will need to develop more, in my mind, to be considered a good prospect, and taking more walks would be part of that. Had he been younger for the league, I would have been more OK with his lack of walks.
My question: given the recent revelations that Sabean was not the lead in signing Zito or Rowand, have you seen any article addressing who was responsible for the AJ Pierzynski trade?
ReplyDeleteMagowan made a cryptic comment about that trade, basically, had he known about the trade, he would have vetoed it, but didn't finger Sabean directly. And Sabean presumably should have known which trades to run by him. It was also about that time that Colletti was raving to the press about how Sabean gives everyone a lot of leeway to do things outside of their normal job duties and purview, including engineering trades. I think Colletti did the trade, but have not seen anything tying him to the deal. Have you seen anything?
ogc,
ReplyDeleteI have seen LOTS of stories / comments about Sabean not being responsible for Zito, but this is the first I have seen anyone clear him of responsibility for RoRo. Have you seen this reported somewhere (or inferred)??
OGC and CSS,
ReplyDeleteI think it was Baggs who has basically said that according to his information Sabean would not have done either the Zito or Rowand deals if he was acting alone.
Probably no way to unravel the AJ trade. Even if you buy that Colletti did it, giving Colletti that kind of power was probably not good management on Sabean's part.
Look, I don't see why we have to absolve Sabean of every bad signing and every bad trade he might have made. He's had good ones and bad ones. Every GM has good ones and bad ones, even the very best in the business.
What's more important is that since 2006, when the Giants drafted Tim Lincecum, Brian Sabean has had the team headed in the right direction. He has added as much homegrown talent to the MLB team during that span as any GM in the business. The quality of drafting, even in the later rounds, has improved year by year. The farm system has continued to get deeper and deeper in talent.
All that, and I haven't even talked about the fact that Brian Sabean is the most successful GM in the history of the Giants franchise since John McGraw. He's won the only WS since the team moved to SF. His overall winning percentage as GM of the Giants is top 10 for all GM's in baseball since 1950.
Brian Sabean isn't perfect, but he's a darn good GM. Giants fans should be proud of his accomplishments instead of bad-mouthing him and appologizing for him on message boards all over the internet.
BTW, a heartfelt thank you to everybody who has submitted questions. These are great questions and I've had a blast answering them. Keep em coming. I will keep checking back for a day or two and try to answer new ones that come along.
ReplyDeleteogc,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the perspective on the Giants '07 when compared to the A's plethora of late round picks/bust on 02-4.
FWIW, my opinion:
Belt will be a .300/.400/.450 if the Giants will just get out of his way. Completely agree with Doc: Come up with a gameplan for Belt, and don't deviate.
Doc, quick question. After trading Wheeler, the Giants insist they have to arms to fill out the Giants Roster for the foreseeable future. I'm not sure I buy this. What do you think?
Kelly,
ReplyDeleteThe Giants have plenty of arms, but none who have both the high ceiling projection plus strong probability of achieving it that Wheeler gave them. This is a fortuitous question here because I was just coming back to write an addendum to what I would do if I were to somehow magically become GM. I would focus the next couple of drafts plus international scouting on pitching, pitching and more pitching. The Giants minor league system is currently heavily tilted toward hitting.
It's not totally barren, though. Surkamp looks like he can stick now as a solid #4/5. Hembree might be the closer of the future. Blackburn has been a nice surprise from this draft. Kickham had a strong finish in Augusta. I'm still really high on Seth Rosin and hope the Giants haven't given up on him as a starter. Chris Heston has been impressive for SJ. Demondre Arnold looks like he has potential and I haven't even mentioned Supplemental round pick Kyle Crick. The the two Dominican Dandies Mejia and De Jesus look interesting. Gregorio seems to have upside.
I think at least 3 or 4 of those guys should break out in the next year or two, but there is nothing in that bunch that compares to Wheeler in my mind.
Aloha Drb,
ReplyDeleteJust finished reading a nice BA article on Richmond's Chris Dominquez. The quote from John Barr that sticks with me is, "you're always looking for tools that can make a difference at this level". The kid has a nice toolset. He also said the Giants are pleased with his progress. I've always been intrigued by him while I sense other prospect watchers are not. How would you rate Dominquez as a major league prospect? High? Low? or somewhere in the middle? Thanks.
Oh, I'm very intrigued by Dominguez. Talk about light tower power! While his numbers slipped after an initial barrage upon callup to AA, I thought he handled the transition quite well. He's a huge guy with surprising athleticism. There is still a strong possibility that he won't make enough contact at the MLB level, but the ceiling is extremely high.
ReplyDeleteHe may have to play 1B in the majors, which reduces his value. If pressed for a projection, I might say .230-.240 BA with 35 HR's. Hey, that would make him one of the best 2-3 hitters on this Giants team!
Doc, thanks for the writeup and addendum. I agree. It's hard for we part-timers to say much about these guys in the low, low, low minors, particularly the Latin kids who come in out of nowhere and so young. Awfullyhard to get a bead based on a scattering of teenage-league at-bats and pitches. (But that's why we rely on you!)
ReplyDeleteAs for the big-league club, I suspect Sandoval will be solid through his twenties. He showed some mettle and purpose about conditioning this year, which bodes well. Around thirty is where that weight thing will really, really test him.
And for next year, I think they really need a solid, older catcher who can fill in if Buster just needs more time or needs more time off. Hernandez or Barajas look like good options, if available and not Type A.
Jim,
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see Hector Sanchez get some PT the rest of the way just to see what he can do.
A lefthanded/switch-hitting bat at the backup catcher position is a very nice thing to have.
Doc, thanks for your answer about Giants' pitching on the farm. I'm pretty much in agreement with what you've said. I totally supported the Beltran trade. But now, with things as they are, I'm feeling a little buyer's remorse about losing Wheeler. Not to mention, I'm worried about the Giants feeling pressured to keep Beltran to address both the loss of Wheeler and to address our anemic offense next year.
ReplyDeleteKelly,
ReplyDeleteI think the biggest pitfall for the Giants this offseason is the temptation to overpay for a veteran bat. I'm no so worried about the $$$ because it's not my money and I think the Giants are swimming in it, but length of contract is a big concern.
Baggs seems to think SF is pretty close to the last place Carlos Beltran want's to sign up for though.
Here's a couple of more modest FA signings that might make some sense for the Giants: Coco Crisp and Omar Infante. I wouldn't do more than 2 years on Crisp, but he gives you legitimate speed at the top of the lineup and can cover CF. Infante would be what the Giants hoped they were getting in Mark DeRosa. A guy who can play anywhere and give you a solid performance.
Another thought: David De Jesus might be interested in a 1 year deal to rebuild his value. If that's what he wants, he might be looking for a more hitter-friendly park to do it in though.
Would really love to see Coco Crisp in SF on the right deal.
ReplyDeleteI hope you're right on Beltran. However, this would be his last big contract. (Meaning he doesn't need to stack numbers for another big payday after this one.) I wouldn't think he's even a marginal threat to go to the Hall. So he's not going to worry too much about the offensive falloff of AT&T) If the Giants offer a big enough contract, and sell the fact that they will competitive for year to come, they could be attractive to Beltran. I HOPE NOT.
Don't get me wrong, for the right price and (as you point out) length of contract, he's a good addition. We won't get either of those.