Wow! The Padres did it! They landed one of the two premier free agents on the market this year, SS/3B Manny Machado. The deal is the largest in free agent history(Giancarlo Stanton's was bigger, but it was a contract extension) at 10 yrs/$300 M. Hopefully this will quiet talk of collusion. I mean, it's the largest FA contract in history! Machado is a perfect fit for the Padres who were seen as somewhat weak at SS and 3B. I would say he should play 3B for them as he is a much better 3B than SS and the bat is obviously good enough that it doesn't matter. I wasn't thrilled with Machado's hot dog act in the 2018 postseason, but in the overall picture, that is probably a minor concern.
Not only is Machado a perfect fit for the Padres current needs, there is a good chance he will ultimately be a terrific value despite the enormity of his contract and the checkered history of other very large contracts. Not only has Machado average 4.8 fWAR over the past 6 seasons despite a couple of serious injuries, he's had 3 seasons of 6+ fWAR and 4 of 5+. Conservatively, market value for wins is $8 M/fWAR. 4.8 X $8 M= $38.4 M. Machado is only 26 yo and still has at least 6 years of close to peak performance left. It is my own belief that Machado will age pretty well and has a good chance to maintain solid production to his mid-30's when this contract finally runs out.
The big challenge for the Padres now is to build a pitching staff. I took a peak at their SP depth chart and it is ugly. Their bullpen is better, but don't forget they traded away their best pitcher, Brad Hand. So, the Padres are a much better team with Manny Machado, but I'm still not ready to proclaim them a contender unless they find a way to add a couple of good SP's
The Padres were also rumored to be interested in Bryce Harper, but word is that they won't be signing both players which seems to take them out of the running for Bryce, who....well....we are still waiting for. I would say it is almost certain that Bryce will now seek more than $300 M which many observers believe he will get. I am not so sure. For one thing, Bryce Harper's market just shrunk by one team. It is quite possible he is down to just two interested teams, the Phillies and Giants. The Phillies are almost certainly offering more total money, but the Giants may be offering a higher Average Annual Value(AAV). The picture that seems to be emerging from the rumor mill is Bryce wanting the higher total money, but not liking the situation in Philly. On the other hand, he loves San Francisco and the Giants but doesn't want to accept less total money even for a higher AAV which is understandable. At this point, it seems likely that Bryce will make us wait awhile longer while Scott Boras tries to drum up another "mystery team." Another reason I am skeptical of Harper getting a bigger contract than Machado is I don't think I am the only person who thinks he won't age as well as Machado which becomes a big issue when you are handing out 10 year contracts.
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If Harper could make SF competitive with this existing Team would it be worth paying 2-3 additional years with less payback at the tail end vs going through a longer rebuilding process with the current Team or possibly the same 2-3 years or longer?
ReplyDeleteIf Harper wants the GLORY of the BIGGEST contract ever, does that mean the deal can't have an "out" for team, like a HUGE first 3 years then a MUTUAL OPTION and enough in the last 7 years to beat Machado and Stanton?
ReplyDeleteIs a mutual option contract evaluated for the "guaranteed" value, not the possible value?
What about contracts that can be BIG with escalators for games or plate appearances, are they evaluated for the minimum or the maximum payout?
Zaidi wouldn't do a Zito-crazy contract but Johnson might, especially to mollify the locals who are unhappy with his red right republicanism.
I'm all for Harper getting the biggest-longest-best-est ever contract, and then some, as long as he earns it, like Barry did!
If Harper is so self absorbed to have to be best paid ever, he's probably not a fit.
The Out is don't take the risk, all contracts are risks today. People were saying the same thing when the Barry's signed...........will Harper be a Barry Bonds or Barry Zito only time will tell.
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