OK, team! Let's take a break from grinding through DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects and the depressing Hot Stove Updates, let our hair down and have a little fun. It feels like Farhan Zaidi has spent the Hot Stove League season buying up lemons. Let's see if we can turn those lemons into lemonade! Here's the premise: Zaidi is essentially done with his roster building, at least until midseason and next offseason. The Giants go into spring training and the season with the roster they have. What if we project the best case scenario for every player on the roster? What kind of a season would the Giants have? Would they compete for a postseason berth?
Let's break it down(disclaimer: We all know a season never plays out they way you draw it up on paper. Some players may have better seasons than you project. Others will be worse. There will be injuries with players shuttling between AAA and MLB as well as midseason additions and/or subtractions. This is just for fun and to get a rough idea of what this team's absolute ceiling might be, AKA Irrational Exuberance!):
C Buster Posey: Giants hopes to compete in 2019 probably begin and end with Buster Posey's health. At this point there appears to be no likely scenario that they have any semblance of a replacement plan for him. So, Best Case Scenario Buster starts the season in the best shape of his life. We'll curb our enthusiasm just a bit and say Buster bounces back to a 3.5 fWAR season. That's not completely out of the question, right?
1B Brandon Belt: Belt finally stays healthy for a full season and gets into a groove at the plate. Career year of 4.0 fWAR. Again, not out of the question, right?
2B Joe Panik: Panik also stays healthy for a full season, gets some BABIP luck going and puts up a fWAR of 3.0. Could happen, right?
3B Evan Longoria: Longo stays healthy, has had a season's worth of looks at NL pitching. 3.0 fWAR.
SS Brandon Crawford: Crawford stays healthy and has a modest bounceback. 3.0 fWAR.
LF Mac Williamson/Anthony Garcia: One of these 2 guys breaks out and hits 30 dingers. Give up a bit on defense, but good enough for 2.5 fWAR.
CF Steven Duggar: Gold Glove defense in CF will go a long way toward an fWAR of 3.0.
RF Drew Ferguson: OBP of .360 and solid RF defense get him to an FWAR of 2.5.
Bench: With the starters all enjoying healthy and productive seasons, there is not as much opportunity coming off the bench but we'll project 5 players to accumulate a total of 2.0 fWAR.
So far we have 26.5 fWAR from the 13 position players. Let's move on to the pitchers:
SP Madison Bumgarner: Best Shape of His Life. PO'd at trade talk. Pitching for a contract. Stays healthy all season. 4.0 fWAR.
SP Jeff Samardzija: Shakes off whatever was bothering his shoulder last year. 3.0 fWAR.
SP Derek Holland: Repeats 2018 with an fWAR of 2.0.
SP Drew Pomeranz: Stays healthy and bounces back to a 3.0 fWAR.
SP Chris Stratton: Consistently inconsistent. Might not make it through a full season in the #5 role. 1.0 fWAR. Derek Rodriguez and Andrew Suarez will likely start the season in Sacramento but will be a quick bus ride away.
RP Will Smith: Repeats 2018. 2.0 fWAR.
RP Tony Watson: Repeats 2018. 1.8 fWAR.
RP Mark Melancon: Modest improvement. 1.0 fWAR.
RP Sam Dyson: Repeats last year. 0.5 fWAR.
RP Ty Blach Repeats last season. 0.8 fWAR.
RP Reyes Moronta: Repeats last season 1.0 fWAR.
RP Travis Bergen: Irrational exuberance! 1.0 fWAR.
12 pitchers total 21.1 fWAR.
25 Man Roster= 47.6 fWAR
Fangraphs Replacement Team Wins = 52(per Wikipedia).
52 + 47.6 = 99 Wins(rounding down)
We have not projected any one player to have a career year(except Brandon Belt, barely). We have not projected any one player to have a crazy fluke Andres Torres season.
Conclusion: It is possible with wearing a nice pair of Rose Colored Glasses, a little Irrational Exuberance and some California Dreaming to project a best case scenario of not just competing for a postseason spot but winning the darn NL West!
Now, wasn't that fun?
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Brand new quote from Farhan Zaidi himself: "Our goal this offseason has been to surround our core of players, which we still believe is a championship core of players, with the right complementary players."
ReplyDeleteNow THAT is some kind of spin! Sounds like he is California Dreaming and wearing Rose Colored Glasses too!
We also did not count Johnny Cueto's 1.0 fWAR in September and amazing postseason run.
ReplyDeleteLOL. Great stuff. They've been underperforming for a few years now, which is why it seems they REALLY do need an impact player to come in and take some of the load off of the middle lineup guys. That said, these are great players, and it's a very good bullpen right now.
ReplyDeleteWith an addition mid season, DRod having a 2nd breakout campaign, and Bum + Samardzjia going off, yeah it could be another fun year, and something to build upon (at the trade deadline!!).
Always fun to project and then the season starts. lol
ReplyDeleteAll of that looks like it's possible, Dr B, except that there is no shade of rose in my glasses that makes me see Longoria at 3.0 WAR. That's OK, the rest of the dream would still gather 96 wins in this dream scenario...
ReplyDeleteThe hope here is Posey bouncing back and the OF accumulating 8 WAR.
ReplyDeleteA stretch for Samardzija and Pomeranz totaling 6, but with D-Rod and a mature Suarez, they'll fill the 6.
Without his injury, Longoria would have been over 2 WAR. Unless he is in full decline at 32, he'll be good for 2.5-3.
10 from Joe and the Brandons? It's all about staying healthy.
Knock 3 off for the OF, another 3 for the IF, and 3 more for the pitching, and you get 90 wins.
Cueto in September plus a stud in July = 92 wins: a lock.
If, unlike 2016, the BP comes through, it will be the first odd-year world series since '89 -- 30 years is long enough!
I guess the point is, while it may be irrationally exuberant, it is not completely insane to see a competitive scenario for the Giants even if Zaidi has doused the Hot Stove.
DeleteI still think Giants have to add a solid OF. I am not talking about Harper, just someone who has done it before. I don't like starting the year with all almost-rookies.
ReplyDeleteYou predictions are not not unrealistic, just hopeful, and quite possible if everyone stays healthy.
They are not really predictions, more like possibilities.
DeleteI agree with you which is why I wanted them to go after Pollock even if they had to overpay, but he might not have picked the Giants over the Dodgers at any price.
Other than Harper, I just don't know what's out there that is that much of a better bet than the current motley crew.
DeleteRe OF:
DeleteIt's true that there's nobody exciting out there on the list, but I'd support bringing in at least 1 journeyman (Maybin? CarGo? Span? ,etc.) as long as they came cheap just as insurance. Not that I'd be expecting much, but at least it won't ruin their future if they fail which can happen with young players.
Ferguson starting in RF (over Slater) because he's a Rule 5 pick and has to remain on the roster? Maybe Giants will keep five OFs and won't have to make a choice. Here's hoping Garcia and Ferguson have good spring camps ... and Slater at some point finds a little more gap-to-gap power.
ReplyDeleteI think Slater has an option left and Zaidi loves to use AAA as an extension of the roster. Also, I think Zaidi is going to be more dictatorial about the roster and he clearly prioritizes walk rates and OBP. Slater's is not terrible, but Ferguson's are better, at least in the minors.
DeleteSlater has 2 options left according to RosterResource(https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-san-francisco-giants/).
DeleteIMHO, Pollock was the only fit for the Giants in free agency and I would have been willing to "overpay" if there were escalators for games played, but it would have had to be an over-over-pay to keep him from LA, plus they gave him a player option for a 5th year with extra escaltors.
The Giants have lots of contracts concluding over the next few years so it wouldn't be a burden however ugly paying for not playing because of an injury or decline would be, but this could have been a bidding war like Sandoval and Boston with LAD having all tie-breakers.
All the leaves are brown, and the sky is gray.
ReplyDeleteSeems like a good place to drop off my thoughts. I think the current group of pitchers has the potential to be a pretty good group, good enough to bring the Giants to .500, and perhaps competitive for the playoffs, if enough of the above happens.
ReplyDeleteThe way the Giants won from 2009 to 2012 was having a co-ace situation, with okay starters in the rest of the rotation. Bumgarner is one, I don't believe he's in decline, and if Pomeranz can return to health, he should be able to co-ace with Bumgarner. Then the Giants need three okay starters out of Holland, D-Rod, Suarez, Stratton, and Samardzija. All had good stretches of 10-20 starts in recent years for the Giants, and with Zaidi resting guys, I think he can mix and match guys to maximize production of good starts out of this bunch. Even if Pomeranz ends up being okay, not ace-like, that enough of the rest can mix and match to get co-ace type of production while the rest of the rotation is simply okay.
And our bullpen was pretty good last year, overall, and they'll have Smith for the full season, and perhaps Moronta can do better now that he got a year under his belt. Melancon is what he is, but Watson should be pretty good, and Dyson should be good enough. Then Black and Okert will probably cycle up and down with Barrett and Venditte, to fill out the bullpen, while providing cover for possible trades of bullpen arms when opportunity strikes for Zaidi.
On top of the above, Bochy made mistakes that held back the 2018 team. He picked the wrong guy for leadoff (.270 OBP) until he put Cutch up there. I used the lineup calculator, and if Bochy had batted his leadoff guy 7th, and moved everyone up, it would have added 3-5 wins. Duggar should be an improvement even if he only hit what he did in 2018 in majors, and hopefully even better. And his defense is 1-3 wins better than what the Giants got in CF in 2017-18. Bochy and the front office also forced Samardzija to pitch in the majors, where the team went 2-8, costing around 2 wins (rest of SP were around .500). They also had Cueto pitch in July, when his arm wasn't healthy, going 1-3, costing another win. Altogether 6-8 wins just for these bad moves.
The Giants were 68-68 at the end of August, and with these changes they would have been at 74-76 wins, which was more than the Dodgers or D-backs had at that point of the season. And that's with all the crazy injuries and bad performances and all that crap happening still.
So I think if the Giants can add someone like Marwin to play one of the corner OF positions, who hits okay and plays good defensive anywhere, and thus be able to give rest to a variety of starters without a big step down in production, plus Duggar leading off, and the SP just doing what they had done over extended stretches (but over a full season), they are capable of being competitive, hence why I think they can be at least .500 in 2019, and it would not surprise me if they are competitive for the division title, if they can just have some health for one, with their starters.