No sooner had the Giants leaked out that they are not interested in signing Bryce Harper to a long term deal, Harper's camp responded that he is not even considering a short term deal. So where does that leave us? Well, if you hear Taylor Swift singing We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together in the background, well, there's probably a reason. My experience with these things is once the team and player start negotiating in the press it's all over.
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Meanwhile, the Giants continued their bottom-feeding frenzy with 3 more signings and another DFA that needed to happen anyway.
Steven Vogt C. DOB: 11/1/1984. B-L, T-R. 6'0", 225 lbs. Drafted 2007 Round 12(Rays).
Vogt missed all of 2018 except for 9 minor league PA's due to a shoulder blowout and subsequent surgery. There are serious questions about whether Vogt will ever fully recover from this injury, so expect him and the Giants to take it slowly and for him to start his season late and in the minors. Oh, and this was a minor league deal. When healthy, Vogt is a good hitter who bats LH which is a very valuable commodity in a catcher, so worth taking a small chance on.
Gerardo Parra OF. DOB: 5/6/1987. B-L, T-L. 5'11", 210 lbs.
2018 MLB(Rockies): .284/.342/.372, 17 2B, 6 HR, 11 SB, 7.2 BB%, 16.9 K%, 443 PA, 0.0 fWAR.
Can't say I'm at all excited by this one even though it's a minor league deal. Parra is coming off a 3 year contract with the Rockies in which he posted a cumulative fWAR of -1.1. Yeah, it's a minor league deal but we all know what Bruce Bochy will do when it comes down to a choice between a 32 year old veteran who will give you a nice safe 0 fWAR and, say, Anthony Garcia, who might give you 30 dingers. Might as well have just kept Gregor Blanco.
Jose Lopez, RHP. DOB: 9/1/1993. 6'1", 205 lbs. Drafted 2014, Round 6(Reds).
2018 AAA(Reds): 5-13, 4.47 ERA, 141 IP, 7.47 K/9, 2.62 BB/9, 0.63 GB/FB.
When I saw the name, I thought the Giants might have picked up the former Mariners 2B of the same name who last played in 2012, but this Jose Lopez is an actual prospect. The Reds tried to sneak him through waivers and the Giants claimed him while DFA'ing Josh Osich. Lopez seemed to be rising start in the Reds system after posting sub-3.00 ERA's at two stops in 2017, but his 2018 AAA season was disappointing. He throws 4 fairly average pitches. Fangraphs had him ranked as the #25 prospect in the Reds system. He has 2 options so the Giants can easily send him to AAA for more seasoning and for depth. As for Osich, I still think there is hope for him, but he desperately needs a change of scenery so I hope another organization gives him a chance.
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Giants haven't found the bottom of the dumpster yet -- they just got Gott! Could Gio be next?
ReplyDeleteWonder if Parra May bin the last?
I like they way we are restocking one of the worst Farm Systems / Team Depth at little or no cost.
ReplyDeleteI also thought it was smart to show interest in Harper.
I have no complains over how the Team is being managed to this point.
Not sure how anyone would call this “restocking the farm system.” I would call it more building depth for the MLB level.
DeleteTalent we have added has more potential / more upside than those they replaced, better chance to find a Diamond in the Rough among than what we cast loose.
DeleteYou mean like replacing Huntley with Rupp, Rivera and Vogt? Or replacing Blanco with Parra?
DeleteBergen, Gott, Lopez, Venditte, Ferguson have more upside at this point in their careers than what we had on the 40 before Z. I'm not a Fan of Parra, Rivera at this point in their careers I would prefer Aramis and one of the younger OF's.
DeleteAs Rule 5 picks go, I like Bergen and Ferguson more than most. Gotta has allowed 22 ER in his last 22 IP or something like that. Not sure how anyone sees upside in Venditte. He’s been around close to forever. Lopez scouting report does not sound high upside to me.
Deletevs Osich? Law? Agree on the Two Way RP though.
DeleteI still hope Z will trade the two Lefty RP's and upgrade the Team even more. I'm ok with trading Bum too if the price in talent is right
Zaidi is playing the same game with the bottom of the roster he did with the Dodgers. Claim a player another team is trying to sneak through waivers then turn around and try to sneak them through our waivers. If it works, you build AAA depth. If not, you haven’t risked much. He might uncover a hidden gem or two, but it’s not like the Giants have never found a hidden gem before.
DeleteAs for trades, maybe some opportunities will open up after Harper signs, but I’m not holding my breath. Zaidi is not going to hold a firesale before the season starts and there just isn’t that much on the market that upgrades immediately. I think the most likely scenario is they will see if they can compete with Bum, Watson and Smith. If not, try to trade at the deadline when the focus will be more on prospects in return.
DeleteFor those lamenting the Giants (or anyone's) lack of interest in signing a long-term deal with Harper (or anyone), think Andruw Jones who was phenomenal through 25 (better than Harper) -- even through 29, hitting 51 and 41 HRs the last 2 years -- plus was an outstanding centerfielder, but the bell curve caught him and he was toast at 30.
ReplyDeleteCurrently, Adam Jones is severely past his peak (was @ 28 yo) and his only hope is a very limited DH deal in the AL, one year with maybe a 2nd year club option.
Boras is too smart to "let" Harper sign a short deal. Since he wants to stay West, maybe the Padres will do something stupid and then free Wil Myers! Good chance he's peaked, too, though.
I agree Harper seems like a player who may not age that well. IMO, Machado is a better long term investment, though not impressed with his attitude in the postseason with the Dodgers. Apparently the Dodgers didn’t dig his attitude either.
DeleteI agree and think Zaidi is waiting for Harper and MGonzalez to sign elsewhere and see what kind of OFs are DFA'd to make room OR become surplus OFs on a team willing to deal. Wil Myers just turned 28 with a lifetime .328 OBP - surely he's in Zaidi's strike zone with the Padres motivated to shed his contract...
DeleteMaybe Zaidi has a secret plan nobody else can see, but right now, I’m not drinking his Kool Aid.
DeleteBarry Zito was the biggest FA one year - yes a pitcher, but his arm remained healthy after his big contract, he too had peaked ... GM's must keep a perspective before shoveling money at these FA's
Delete2015 - 2018 Kool Aid has been replaced with Z-Aid
DeleteParra is a good signing - I read an article a while back about analyzing 'Wins Above Average' rather than 'Wins Above Replacement' and I think Parra was the highest ranked free agent OF for that stat over the past 5-6 years - well above Harper. It's a no risk minor league contract with invitation to ST. I think the Gs have enough OFs to compete in Scottsdale for the 25-man roster - add Maybin only if he will sign minor league deal with invitation to ST to compete with Ferguson for the RH CF platoon spot. Leaves Parra, Williamson, Shaw, Slater (and Maybin?) competing for the corners - I really hope Mac is fully back to where he was, how great would that be?
ReplyDeleteNot sure how Wins Above Average wouldn’t run parallel to WAR. Parra was 0.0 last year and -1.1 over the past 3 years. Not sure how anyone can construe that as better than Harper. To me, all Parra can do is get in the way of players with much higher upside.
DeleteI wish I could remember the article - it may have had something to do with OBP - but the WAA was being discussed as an alternative, less impressive figure by comparing player performance to the MLB league average rather than Minor League replacement - in any event, G Parra outranked B Harper on that list!
DeleteI am sure if you look hard enough you can always find some metric for which any given player is better than any other given player. I would not give any credibility to one that ranks Gerardo Parra ahead of Bryce Harper. Parra hasn’t even been all that good defensively over the last 3 seasons.
Deletehow Wins Above Average wouldn’t run parallel to WAR
ReplyDeleteEssence of article was that teams replace replacement players (WAR) with average players (WAA), so suggestion was to remove 1 WAR for more accurate evaluation.
Interesting article that I can't seem to locate.
Perhaps the article you are referring to is from Beyond the Boxscore, April 24, 2012. I read it through and basically all they are doing is normalizing for number of Games, Innings and PA's so that longevity and playing time are taken out of the equation. I would also point out that Parra was a lot better player in 2012 than he has been for the last 3 seasons.
DeleteI would also point out that I made similar adjustments for Gregor Blanco for his peak years with the Giants and got criticized by folks who said that if he played more his numbers would suffer because of overexposure(shrugs). See, you can't win in these discussions!
DeleteJohnny Cueto's disclosure to Henry Schulman that he's been hiding pain for 3 years makes you wonder if he was damaged goods at the end of 2015 when he was ineffective with the Royals, although he was very good in that WS against the Mets and in 219 IPs for the Giants in 2016, while pitching through pain, as he admits.
ReplyDeleteAnd how amazing that he was so good to begin last year.
He's definitely a competitor -- if he comes back strong he could earn his last 2 years as the Giants ace in 2020 and 2021.
Read:
https://www.sfchronicle.com/giants/article/Giants-Johnny-Cueto-20-pounds-slimmer-ready-13617653.php
Cueto missed starts here and there for 2-3 yrs before undergoing surgery so I don't see this as any big surprise.
DeleteIMO Zaidi is trying to push San Diego into raising the ante for Harper to mess them up in the '20s when the Giants may be on ascendancy..
ReplyDeleteSD is up-and-coming, IF their hot prospects pan out, they are the next class of the NL West. If SD is pushed to unwise things (10-year big commitments), that will hurt them as the youngsters mature.
Harper has too many "so-what" years in his resume, he's has some mega years left but may well be done after 31 yo.
Let someone else have the equivalent of declining Posey-Belt-Crawford-Longoria-Melacon-Samardzija-Cueto salaries in 2020 later on.
Giants have $125,500,000 booked for those 7 players in 2020 and Belt will be the youngest at 32 yo, and 5 other, less expensive roster players this year, will be gone in 2020.
2019 is a window for success but long-contract Harper is too much for just that year.
How to win next year before the core is gone or in serious decline is the trick.
Perhaps Zaidi was willing to give Harper $40M for one year to make SF viable with Bum's last year and maybe Cueto in September.
The right guy next year could salvage the venerable veterans, but the early 20s are destined for serious decline.
Then the new crop of kids come.
Spend next year but don't take on bad contracts this year.
Just sayin'
I think adding a Harper ( Bonds ) helps the younger players develop faster.
Delete