Well, THAT cat's out of the bag! Some random guy on Twitter saw Larry Baer at the Bellagio in Vegas and put 2+2 together. Yeah, Larry Baer was part of a contingent that met with Bryce Harper and Scott Boras last week. With the rain pouring down on one of the saddest sack Fanfests in recent memory, expectations of a surprise signing announcement reached a level of irrational exuberance. Farhan Zaidi cracked first. Yeah, it's hard to keep a secret when your CEO "gets made" in the casino. Ha ha! Wink wink! That kind of forced Larry Baer to say...well... something. Larry blushed, looked at his feet and stammered out something along the lines of yeah, we had a date. One thing led to another. Two hours turned into 4. We fell in love! Oh, BTW, Bryce just LOVES Buster! Ha, ha! Does that sound a lot like another "business man" with questionable negotiating skills turned leader we've heard from recently? Yup, it does!
You know what, Larry? Just ST*U! If you really think you have a chance to sign Bryce Harper AND have the money, or are willing to spend the money, you wouldn't be here at Fanfest yucking it up with Farhan and Boch. You'd have spent the rest of the week hammering out a deal and had Bryce here at Fanfest with you, or else you would be skipping Fanfest to be back down there getting him signed. This is like the high school kid who comes back from the prom bragging about getting to second base after the girl tells him to get the **** lost.
Man, I hope I am wrong! Look, I am OK with the Giants not signing Bryce Harper. He's not a great fit for the ballpark and the back end of that contract is going to get ugly. But I've seen this movie a few too many times. If they aren't going to sign him, that's fine, but don't go getting our hopes up trying to pacify us with yet another story about how we were this close, but dang it, we just didn't get that rose! Yeah, I'm calling you out on this one, Larry. Get it done now or I'm calling a great huge steaming pile of BS!
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BTW, isn't Fanfest supposed to mark the official end of the Hot Stove League? Why does it feel like that ol' boiler is still just warming up?
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Madison Bumgarner doesn't like Openers. No, Bum didn't show for Fanfest, but Bochy told how he got a text from Bum saying if Boch used an opener in his game he'd walk right out of the ballpark! Maybe I'll write a post about Openers. I have some thoughts on the subject and they probably fall somewhere between Bumgarner's and Zaidi's. That's all I'll say on that subject for now.
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Thanks, Doc. Simply the best sizing up of this really puzzling (and quite annoying) public flirtation with Harper yet. My fear is that Baer's rather stunningly good hire of Zaidi is going to get derailed somewhere along the way. From a purely baseball perspective, now just doesn't seem like the greatest time to put so much into one bat -- it just isn't going to be enough, I'm afraid. As you point out, he isn't even the ideal fit for this ballpark or this lineup.
ReplyDeleteAs far as Buster's comments to just "get it done," I respect the heck out of that man. But of course he's going to say "sign him!" Fanfest to me got a little crazy when the players started being the biggest cheerleaders for a deal. Kind of like, who's running this show?
Would very much enjoy your perspective on Openers. As a traditionalist and Madbum fan, such a use of relievers as starters makes me cringe. Sabermetrics gone awry?
I think the Giants can contend in 2019. I also think Bryce Harper would give them a better chance to compete in 2019. I'd be happy if the Giants sign him. I also understand why they might not think he's THAT player who they want to make the centerpiece of their payroll for the next 10 years. The prospect hound in me is also curious to see if Farhan can cobble together a 6+ fWAR OF out of the roster he already has. So I'm good if they sign Bryce or if they don't. It just feels like Larry Baer and Zaidi are trying to have it both ways. Trying to make me think it wasn't their decision if they don't sign him.
DeleteHere's the cynical take - Fan Fest would have been a dud without something to get excited about, so rather than sign BH, let's whip up the excitement about him -- then go back to business as usual. Two experienced outfielders is all that is left to acquire from Zaidi's pre-off-season tasksheet - someone else will sign Harper and MGonzalez and they'll have to DFA someone or trade someone to make room - I think that's what Zaidi is waiting for...
DeleteOn other news, from Friday, Hunter Pence signed a minor league deal with the Texas Rangers.
ReplyDeleteLet's see if Pence can stay healthy and productive for a full season. I wish him the best.
DeleteBob Nightengale reporting on twitter that the Giants plan to offer Harper a "short term lucrative deal", and have no interest in offering the 10 year $300 mil contract he turned down with the Nats. Stay tuned.
ReplyDeleteHypothetical situation: Bryce still has the Nationals 10 yr/$300 M offer on the table. Giants offer 1 year/$45 M. The Nats offer may not be what Bryce was hoping for, but I don't see how he turns down that kind of long term financial security for the 1 year offer, no matter the AAV.
DeleteYeah, stay tuned!
Farhan is a smart guy and this will be his first real test. Can he outwit Boras for arguably the biggest prize on the free agent market in over a decade? A 26 year old perennial MVP candidate like Harper does not come around every offseason, this is the opportunity of a generation plain and simple.
ReplyDeleteIt is going to take a ton of creativity to pull it off but I would put together an offer that was front loaded and had multiple opt outs. Something like $35 million over first three years with an opt out for Bryce after three. Year 4 if he stays would be for 1 year at $45 million with a another opt out after that. This puts him at 30 years old and gives him the option to enter the FA market or stay with the Giants for the team friendly portions of the contract which would be another 6 years at $150 million.
Total value would end up being around $300 million and gives Bryce the option to enter the FA market several more times but entices him to stay as well with what will probably be a good deal for both player and team throughout the length of the deal. This is a similar deal in $ and years that would have been committed to Stanton last offseason if he had wanted to be here.
Nice work, anonymous - it's still the 10 years $300M left on the table in DC but the player-friendly opt-outs might entice the Bryce (that's my rhyme for picket signage if a public demonstration has to happen) -- only thing is that after 4 years $25M will probably be near the QO figure. The worst case scenario Harper declines due to injury and you're carrying a Pence/Cain for six years...see Ellsbury, Kemp, etc for further parallels. The Bonds parallel is wonderful but Bonds was one of a kind...no one seems to get that lucky with long-term contracts these days.
DeleteI agree with your idea, but think it needs to e enriched somewhat to entice Bryce Harper. Here is my suggested offer:
Delete1. 3 years @ $40M per year
2. A fourth year player option at $45M, and
3. A fifth year team option at $50M
Total package $215M for 5 years.
It would make Bryce Harper the highest paid player in MLB and allow him to opt out after three years (age 29) and negotiate another contract. If he decides to accept the fourth year, then the Giants get to decide on the fifth year.
Note: I'd leave the offer on the table for 72 hours.
As a fan you need to ask yourself one question. Would you rather watch the Giants sign Harper and not win a World Series for the next 10 years but regularly make the playoffs while Harper is the star of the Giants OR would you rather watch a rebuilding team that has 20% chance to win a world series in 5 to 10 years?
ReplyDeleteWith the option of getting Harper it would be a lot like the injection Bonds gave this team back in 93 when he brought back to life a team that hadnt done much. That team consisted of Clark, Williams, and Thompson who all were better and came together when Bonds showed up. Sounds a little like our current core of Posey, Belt, and Panik who could all rally around Bryce.
The other option is to wait and see. Take the next 5 years to allow our new GM/VP to tinker and wheel and deal and use high draft picks and stealth moves to create a World Series worthy team that at best will likely have a 20% chance for a 4-5 year period of winning a world series. Sounds great now but does anyone else reslly want to wait 5 years for a 20% chance?
If you think Harper will get the Giants to the playoffs several times over the next 10 years, then you think the chances of winning the WS with Harper is around 20%. Or even higher - getting to the division series give you about a 1/8 chance to win the whole thing (12.5%), so if we lower that to 10%, but Harper-led Giants get to the playoffs "regularly" every third year for 10 years there's a 30% chance of a title. And conversely there is no guarantee that a rebuild will lead to playoffs or the WS - or even a 20% chance. It worked for the Astros and Cubs and even the 2010 Giants, but not for perennial high drafters like SD, Seattle, Arizona, As, Rays, Miami etc. Being bad for 5 years isn't an automatic ticket to being good the next 5 years. Injuries, bad picks, and going up against super teams can derail rebuilds - the a team might win over 95 but still just get the Wild Card and then lose the 1-game lottery.
DeleteIMO, the problem is a Harper super contract might be like ARod to Texas or Howard in Philadephia - just a lot of losing and a huge payroll. That it might lead to something like Bond's first contract - one 103 win year and then a 4-5 years of suck anyways until the next crop of players comes good might mean that a 8-10 year deal is better for the Giants than a 3rd year optout. The justification for a long deal is that Harper might do well once or twice with Posey and the Brandons 2019-2021... and then Bart and crew in the mid/late 2020s.
Harper wants to play in the West and ST in AZ, but the Giants aren't going long term contract to "beat" Stanton or commit.
ReplyDeleteFor short term, why would he go to probable loser rather than a contender?
Unless they could offer 2 or 3 mega years @ $35M, an opt out, then a long time for $20M per year to make the overall value to beat Stanton, knowing he won't take it after the option.
For CBT, the contract gets spread, doesn't it?
Unless he faceplants.
Oracle Park is not a great place for a hitter to build value for a future contract.
DeleteGood point, and he's not Barry Bonds.
DeleteIs he worth a mega contract?
He had the one Barry Bonds year (2015) and 2 good years (2012 & 2017), but 3 of his 7 years were at BasRef substitute level (0-2 bWAR).
In his last FIVE years, 2014-2018, the WAR of his ONE big year is greater then the SUM of the other 4 years!
He'd be nice to have, but is there something to support that he'll have $300,000,000 worth of WAR in the next 10 years.
Is 37.2 WAR (double the last 5 years including the BIG one) enough? Maybe at $8,000,000 per WAR unit.
Baltimore projects to have Trey Mancini, 26 yo (.242/.299/.416 -- 24HRs), Cedric Mullins, 23 yo (.235/.312/.359), and DJ Stewart, 24 yo (.250/.340/.550 --47 PAs) line up as the primary outfielders.
ReplyDeleteThey should be in the Harper Bazaar! Would get their payroll over $100M.
if Harper signs it is a quality of life choice ... Northern Cal is wonderful and if you are making millions per year why not?
ReplyDeletemaybe I am biased since I grew up here but I would not play for Philly for all the tea in China
Could the Giants pressure San Diego into going all in for Harper, loosening up one or two OFs from the Padres. Maybe then a Longoria for Wil Myers bad contract swap, and sign Marwin Gonzalez to play 3B, RF or LF. Pablo right there for 3B or sign Moustakis to compete as well. That'd seem to bring in as much offense as Harper. Within the division I know, but SD needs a 3B, we need an OF - let's go
ReplyDeleteJust the fact the folks keep posting proposed trades for Wil Myers shows why the Padres don't think they have to take back a bad contract in return for him. I'd like to see the Giants trade for Wil Myers to play LF, but SD is not going to take Longoria's contract in return.
DeleteMac Williamson yesterday per Schulman:
ReplyDelete“Obviously, Bryce is a tremendous player...If we’re able to get him, he’s going to help the team win games. There’s no shock there. From a personal perspective, I think I and Duggar and Shaw and Slater bring a lot more to the table than people realize.”
And Ferguson.
The Giants have an outfield glut!
Of the 5 position players key to SF success (without Harper or Myers): Posey, Belt, Panik, Crawford, and Longoria, the one most love to hate won't have the worst year of the 5.
SF starting RF hit .226 with 4 HR's all year ... team shed that monster contract and no doubt will get more production no matter who they trot out ... Gorkys had a good year - not sure they can replace his offensive stats but I'm eager to see what Duggar can do
DeleteCan't replace Gorkys? Surely you jest.
DeleteHis 0.5 WAR, 0.1 dWAR (Baseball Reference) helped the Giants to 70 wins, with .162/.220/.286 slash in the 2nd half.
He was a good Giant, wish him well in Pawtucket!
Parra signs, Maybin is next?
ReplyDeleteIt IS an outfield glut but that's what Zaidi wants -- competition.
The Giants will get more out of their 2019 OF than last year even without Cutch, Mac could replace him, Duggar will fill center all year, and there's a spot left with a half dozen candidates none named Harper or Gonzalez.
It's not a GREAT outfield, but SF success next year is spelled
PoseyBeltCrawfordPanikLongoria -- even Harper would require positive resurgence from them to make the Giants relevant.
Good starting pitching will help, too, and since there won't be many 3-run HRs, 4+ eked out will win a lot of games lost last year.
Dumpster diving continues unabated with Trevor Gott the latest.
ReplyDeleteThat's gotta be it -- cold there be anyone left in the dumpster after Gott?
He'll be DFA's by Friday and signed to a minor league contract to join Zaidi's legions in AAA.
This is excitement?