Friday, February 22, 2019
All Questions Answered
Hey team! Wrapping up the Top 50 Prospects series and the day before spring training games start seems like a good time to have a Q/A. I'll answer any reasonable question related to baseball, Giants prospects, draft, spring training, state of the Giants, fantasy baseball. Fire away! Feel free to chime in with your own opinions. I may not get to answers until later in the day.
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Longenhagen at Fangraphs had a positive note on Andrew Caraballo and a 60 raw power on Genoves. Also, said Canario had best bat speed in instrux and the same raw power as Joey Bart. Giants might actually get some international help.
ReplyDelete2 questions :
ReplyDeleteAny chance for a vintage Bumgarner this year ?
Given the state of the team, would you make a splash now ( Harper) or would you wait until July ?
1. Yes. Bumgarner looked lean and mean and was throwing heat in spring training last year then broke his had. I think he lost his edge during the layoff and just never got it back. Excellent bounceback chance here, IMO.
Delete2. I believe the Giants can compete this year and should give it their best effort. Signing Harper is one way to do that, but not the only way. It's getting late for trades, though, and there is not much else left on the FA market that will be a significant upgrade.
MadBum commented a week ago that he rushed back from injuries the last two years. His 2017 velocity before the bike was actually back to like 2014 levels.
Delete....er broke his hand......
DeleteI meant in 2017 before the motorcycle accident. His first couple starts his velocity was back up from 2016 levels. In 2018 spring training he was looking great, but by the time he recovered from the hand injury, his velocity just wasn’t there.
DeleteI agree with you, Bryce I was replying to myself and you must have sent your comment while I was typing, sorry if it looked like I was correcting you.
DeleteDr. B,
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think of 8yr/$330M for Harper.
First 3 years at $50M each
Years 4-6 at $40M each
Years 7&8 at $30M each.
AAV= $41.25M
Bryce can opt out after years 3 and 6. For the Giants sake it’s not a 10 year deal and for Bryce it’s still the biggest contract in MLB history.
And if Bryce doesn’t sign with SF I would trade for Jay Bruce & give Mac a legitimate shot as the other corner OF. If we take on most of, if not all of Bruce’s contract, I don’t think we would have to give up much.
Just my thoughts on acquiring an OF.
Jose
I don't pretend to have any inside information into what the Giants can afford and what they can't. From everything I read, they can easily afford to give Bryce Harper the largest contract in FA history. On the other hand, that is no small investment and not one you make for just any star player. It has to be for an elite talent. The Giants just need to ask themselves a few simple questions:
Delete1. Is Bryce Harper the elite talent you are willing to give an historic contract too?
2. Will the contract impede future acquisition of talent down the road?
If the answer is yes to #1 and no to #2, then they should do what it takes to get him signed already.
At the same time, Bryce needs to take a good look in the mirror and ask himself what will make him happy? If he hates Philly and loves SF, would getting the biggest contract in FA history from Philly really be worth it?
Jay Bruce hits dingers and but does not give you much else. He can't play RF in Oracle Park. He's probably not who I would like to see the Giants trade for.
I would add that the Giants should not sign Harper to a mega-contract just to compete in 2019. They should sign him to a mega contract if they believe he will help them compete every year for the next 7-8 years.
DeleteIs it possible to design a contract that gives Harper a record $326M, but one he'll opt out of before it's done?
DeleteLike $32.5M for 4 years ($130M), $14M for 14 years ($196M), with an opt out every other year beginning in 2020?
By the end of the contract, if Bryce is still around, his contract is about 50% in today's dollars (~-3.5%/year).
Unless he's Aaron Rowand, he's long gone by then.
Of course a contract like that is possible, one I would think the Giants would try to avoid if possible. You only have to look as far as Johnny Cueto to see how a contract like that can backfire on you.
DeleteI was discussing this with a friend. How much would Harper need for one year to sign? $60m? A 10 year deal can essentially be looked at as 2 five year deals put together. You’re paying him 5/250 for his peak and 5/50 for his 31-35 and averaging out. Then you just hope he outperforms the first part before he breaks down. I think to entice an opt out, it’d have to be like 3/140-7/190 and he’s hoping he gets another big deal at 29.
DeleteIf Farhan DFAs an NRI, would he have to clear waivers before he could participate?
ReplyDeleteSince they are not on the 40 man roster, DFA is not a factor. The younger ones can probably just be sent down to Sacramento. The veterans probably have opt out clauses in their contracts which says they can refuse assignment and become FA's again.
DeleteThanks for the reply Dr. B. I’ve been reading your blog since 2011 and I can’t thank you enough for all of the incredibly hard work you put in and how much I’ve learned about prospects and the Giants from you. I agree with you if the Giants identify Harper as the guy to bring in to put them in position to compete for titles over the next 7-8 years then they should get it done and it’ll be money well spent.
ReplyDeleteIf Harper does end up signing elsewhere do you think it would open up the trade market for outfielders or is it to late at this point? At the very least I think we need one more established OF with power to help our offense and chances at contending this season.
Thank you, Jose. I agree the Giants need at least 1 solid upgrade in the OF to be any more than a long shot to contend. I have to say I am skeptical that Harper signing elsewhere is going to open up the trade market for OF's all that much, especially now that spring training has started. Farhan might have to roll with with the dumpster dives and hope 1 or 2 pan out.
DeleteThere are 23 relievers battling for two spots in the bullpen and one has a guaranteed contract. Should they trade for a major league outfielder or stock up on more lower level prospects from your perspective? Tom W.
ReplyDeleteSo, if the Giants want to use Will Smith or Tony Watson as trade bait, I don't think they are going to find an MLB upgrade with years of control. That leaves either a matching swap of 1 year rentals or going for prospects. A trade now would definitely have to look for an OF upgrade at the MLB level. That market looks quite barren to me. If they are looking for prospects, they can get those at the deadline if they fall out of contention.
DeleteIn summary, they most likely start the season with Smith and Watson on the team and yeah, there are about 23 pitchers competing for 2 bullpen spots.
Depth is a good thing but at some point, you're not really adding any value and just creating confusion and chaos. It has been proven over and over that spring training competition, while it may be fun to discuss, is a terrible way to make roster decisions.
Delete2019 draft : should the Giants draft the best player available or the best best pitcher available with their first pick?
ReplyDeleteBest Player Available which is likely to be a college bat.
DeleteDoc and everyone out there, who is on your draft wish list, realistically speaking of course? I think Kameron Misner easily tops my list and as of now is projected to be available when the Giants pick, but I could see him being taken very early if he has a good junior year. Next would be Spencer Jones, who could be a stud at the plate, on the mound, or both- if a forward-thinking organization (which I hope the Giants are becoming) drafts him and lets him develop as both a hitter and pitcher. If Andrew Vaughn drops I'd like to see the Giants draft him- not sure how he'd fit into their future plans, but if he's there, you just have to take the BPA and see how things eventually work out with the big league team. There aren't any pitchers that really intrigue me, and not too many other position players for that matter either.
ReplyDeleteAny of the 3 you mentioned would be great choices. I would add Bryson Stott, the SS from UNLV.
Delete