Andrew McCutchen RF- 1 for 2, 2 BB. BA= .265. Cutch reaches base safely 8 consecutive PA's including yesterday's 5-hit game. OK, I am not sure why folks are relentlessly ragging on Cutch. We all know he's not Mike Trout and he's not the player he was a few years ago, but his fWAR is 1.4 which is 1.6 higher than the Giants fWAR for RF last year. I challenge the Cutch raggers to show me a reasonable scenario where the Giants do better than that for the same cost or less.
Evan Longoria 3B- 3 for 4, 2B, HR(12). BA= .262. Longo went 8 for 18 for the 4 game series and is hitting .357 in 10 games since coming off the DL. His dinger turned around a 97 MPH FB from Archie Bradley for the game winner.
Derek Holland LHP- 5.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K's. ERA= 3.88. Holland was not really in trouble when Bochy removed him in the 6'th inning, but with Paul Goldschmidt and Steven Souza, 2 power-hitting RH batters coming up, he wanted RHP Reyes Moronta to face them. Moronta walked Goldy but got Souza to fly out and then got the switch-hitting Ketel Marte to pop up.
Ray Black RHP- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K. ERA= 2.53. Ray Black has now pitched 10.1
scoreless frames since his rough MLB debut.
Will Smith LHP- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's, Save(7). ERA= 1.27. Another lights out 9'th for Will Smith.
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With the Win, the Giants gained a game back on the D'Backs who dropped back into a tie for the NL West lead with the Dodgers. The Giants trail by 5 games with the Rockies 2 back in 3'rd place.
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The Giants come home to face the World Series Champion Astros with Young Dereck Rodriguez facing Charlie Morton.
The Cutch raggers challenge:
ReplyDeleteSince WAR is cumulative and McCutchen leads the team in games player, the direct WAR comparison is skewed.
Mccutchen has 3.5 times the games Slater has, 3.9 times Williamson, and 5.4 times Duggar.
Plus he's terrible defensively -- any of the other Giants OFers would have caught the pop down the RF line that, had it been fair (inches foul), would have turned the game around for AZ.
You could make a case that Hernandez is less valuable than McCutchen but it's close.
We'll never know because this year the "kids" won't have enough games but Williamson, Duggar, and Slater is a "sounder" OF and wouldn't sacrifice "butts in the seats" anywhere but Pittsburgh.
Player games WAR dWAR & WAR/games (times 100)
McCutchen 109 1.4 -0.5 1.3
Hernandez 98 1.0 0.1 1.0
Slater 31 0.8 0.1 2.6
Duggar 20 0.7 0.3 3.5
Williamson 28 0.5 0.2 1.8
Pence 60 -0.3 0.1 0
Williamson in left, Duggar in center, Slater in right -- works for me -- the Giants can finish 4th in the NL West with or without McCutchen and have beaucoup millions more money!
Pretty flawed stats analysis there, Anon!!
DeleteThe whole point of actually playing and obtaining REAL WAR value is that you can't just do it over a 9-game stretch. I'm as disappointed as any that Williamson had the concussion when he did, but when he returned he hit .154 (!) in June before being sent to AAA. So comparing his WAR vs Cutch, and finding he was the more productive player, means you don't understand where stats are meaningful and where they're meaningless..
Duggar has played well. Over 74 at bats!! Slater? 73abs. Without a learning cushion, there's a strong chance both these players would be EXPOSED by advanced scouting over a deeper sample size. They need time, and Cutch provides productivity while allowing them to acclimate.
McCutchen's defense is not what it once was, but he's been a critical part to the SF team this year. Replace him with one of the kids to start the year, and the Giants in 2018 are a never-was. Again, for the same price - tell us who could have replaced his 408 ABs w/ 1.4fWAR and .783 OPS.
First of all, projecting WAR from a Small Sample Size is not a valid way of analyzing these things.
DeleteWilliamson has been terrible since suffering the concussion both at the MLB and AAA levels. Ok to run him out there and take his lumps if you want to sacrifice this year for the future. Giants clearly are not ready to do that yet. Duggar got off to a very slow start to the season. Now that he is going good, he's needed in CF rather than RF. Slater should have been called up a long time ago, but for LF rather than RF.
I can understand pointing out Cutch's limitations from time to time. I don't understand the sustained absolute hatred and hammering on how terrible he is day after day after day.
Just a suggestion for the Cutch Raggers: Time to find another topic!
NL has only 4 teams below .500, 11 teams are still (sort of) in the hunt.
ReplyDeleteAL has only 6 teams above .500, 9 are still "in" contention.
In the NL, if the season ended right now, either LAD or AZ would be in, the other would be out altogether, no WC.
In the AL, if the season ended right now, Yankees would play the WC for the chance to play Boston who just swept them in 4 games. In the WC, NY would play the A's who are 4-2 against them. 1 and out?
Maybe Stanton would like a do-over!
The direct WAR comparison is skewed, says Anon, and produces some SSS to skew it backwards. Well, who is the closest offensive match for Cutch on our team? He is about as offensively valuable as Buster Posey: both men have a wRC+ of 117; both men have a wOBA of .342; both men have an OPS OF .782. Eliminating a Posey-level offense from the Giants and settling for fourth in the West without it “works for” Anon, but I’m guessing that there are others like me, who don’t find inner peace in being the rich, bedraggled tail behind strutting LAD, COL, and ARI.
ReplyDeleteI hastily hit the button on another anti-Cutch comment and can't get it back. Apologies to whoever submitted it. If you want to re-submit I will post it and offer a response.
ReplyDeleteEveryone was right to attack what seemed to be foundation of my argument. That was easy because even I, although definitely an old schooler, know what SSS is, what it means, and that you can't project it after 20 or 30 or 40 games.
ReplyDeleteIn my defense, that WAS my point: no one can be compared to McCutchen because no one had a chance, whether injury (Mac), Duggar (kept in AAA long after it was clear that Jackson was not the CFer), or forgotten (Slater).
Doc's argument is unassailable because there is no one to compare! The only fair comparison would be Hernandez who put up lesser but comparable numbers for $561,500 compared to $14,750,000, and played a much harder position much much better.
As someone pointed out before, McCutchen is not the worst RFer in the major leagues, and according to ESPN MLB Player Fielding Stats - As RF - 2018, McCutchen is 13th in dWAR for players with at least 70 games in RF.
I have no personal animosity toward the man, I've been a fan a long time and admire the way he has played the game, his poise, his achievements, his persona. The Giants may be better because he's a Giant, but they are puttzing along with a frustrating offense and may or may not put it together.
Fortunately the way a team plays the first 113 games doesn't dictate the way they'll play the last 49. You can't project wins just as you can't project WAR. But we all hope they will turn it around because, right now, they are not a lot of fun to watch. They blow leads, they don't hit with power, they don't keep the line moving, and they run the bases not so great. Their OF play has been mostly bad, second and third have been problematic. Injuries to a not very deep team have been devastating.
But like 2016 post ASG, we keep hoping they'll put it together and I'll keep watching and hoping, too.
I don't know. Time is short. Wild Card is pretty unlikely because so many teams are above the the Giants. I think 7. Only 2 of 7 of them have to play well to ace the Giants out.
DeleteThe division is the only real hope, "only" 3 teams to jump. After Tuesday's game, Giants are 6 out, and under .500. Does not look much better there.
The Astros beat the Giants the way the Giants used to win. Tight close games, with outstanding pitching. 33-14 the rest of the way to get to 90 wins. Not impossible, but I don't see how this team gets that done.