Derek Fisher is one of those players who scouts a lot better than his performance on the field would make you think. He is coming into his college junior season at Virginia. He's big, 6'3", 201 lbs., athletic and bats left, throws right. He was rated as a top 10 draft prospect out of HS, so was a real coup for Virginia.
Here are his stat lines for his first two college seasons:
2012 .288/.375/.507, 8 3B, 7 HR, 4 SB.
2013 .293/.405/.483, 7 HR, 8 SB.
He hit .333 with 6 doubles and 13 SB in 120 AB in he Cape Cod League where he also had 25 BB's against just 19 K's. He'll probably be a corner OF in the pros.
BLF has Fisher ranked #18 in the draft. Matt Garrioch of Minor League Ball has him at #15. BA has him at #16 with the comment "Powerful lefthanded swing makes him a potential first rounder, though his defense and all-around tools are more in question."
I see a little too much Jarrett Parker in him to be comfortable with drafting him in the first round, although the Giants scout the Cape Cod League heavily and like their hitters with reversed K/BB's.
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We want nothing to do with this guy. You want to see how a college hitter who is hyped should progress? Here it is:
ReplyDelete346/433/467
382/453/520
463/566/879
Yeah, I cherry picked Buster's FSU career.
Hitting in the 290s in college... That's a John Barr value pick in the 3rd or 4th round.
If Mac Williamson had been a first rounder, I don't think we'd be complaining. Between the BBCOR bats and raised seams on the balls, college baseball has become very pitcher friendly in the last few years. Let's see how Fisher does with another year of experience and the new baseballs. I can see the Giants statheads being in love with the K/BB. Ooh! It feels so good to say that! Giants statheads, that is.
DeleteMac Williamson wouldn't be a first rounder though, because of his age issues. That's what is great about the Giants, they don't penalize youth as much as the more progressive stat-nerd study believing FOs. Sure, the BBCOR bats have stiff armed power some, and the new baseballs will do something new. But BA is BA, and I'm sorry, 290s BA in college is not first round material unless the power is crazy.
DeleteAgreed. Unfortunately for the Mariners, that .400+ avg for Dustin Ackley in college hasn't materialized into a .300+ hitter yet.
DeleteHard as hell to develop hitting. Will he hit? is constantly asked.
DeleteI'd agree with you Shankbone, and that was my first impression too, but didn't they change the college bats a couple years ago to be less explosive? I believe hitting numbers have gone down as a result. Based on those numbers, even with the bat change, not a first rounder, IMO.
ReplyDeleteWell, he seems to scout better than his performance, as you say, DrB.
DeletePerhaps we put aside his stats, progressive or otherwise, for now and hear what professional scouts have to say.
Here is the first sentence of this post:
ReplyDeleteDerek Fisher is one of those players who scouts a lot better than his performance on the field would make you think.
Then DrB went on to offer 6 stats, all not particularly progressive, not in down right traditional on most of them - BA, OBP, SLG, 3B, HR and SB.
I read it as meaning he scouts better than his (traditional) stats would show.
So, I am interested in what the scouts have to say, despite the pedestrian .290 BA (without even getting into any progressive stuff) in college.
I'm not wild about drafting players who don't play up to their scouting reviews. My first reaction was that the Giants should stay far away from him. After digging a bit, though, I noticed his Cape Cod BA and his excellent K/BB there, albeit small sample size.
DeleteI think his junior year performance is worth watching and I would not be shocked if the Giants statisticians are looking at that K/BB because they have been targeting hitters like that recently.
I would also point out, as somone else already did that a .400 BA in college does not guarantee success and the Giants have had some success drafting guys with mediocre college BA's such as Crawford, Belt and Williamson.
All I'm saying is I'm keeping an open mind on Fisher.
Thanks, DrB
DeleteI think good scout reviews hint at some potential and, as you say, it's worth it to keep an open mind.