Heath Hembree, RHP. 6'4", 210 lbs. DOB: 1/13/1989.
AAA 1-4, 4.07, 55.1 IP, 16 BB, 63 K, 31 Saves.
MLB 0-0, 0.00, 7.2 IP, 2 BB, 12 K's.
Heath Hembree was what has become recognizable as a typical Giants college relief pitcher draft pick when they nabbed him out of little known College of Charleston in round 5, 2010. He almost immediately started ringing up strong strikeout ratios while developing a reputation for throwing a high 90's fastball. He moved up quickly in the organization reaching AA in the second half of his first full season, 2011.
He started 2012 in AAA with some anticipation that he could be an early callup to the majors, but ran into command and arm fatigue problems. He as back in AAA for 2013 and in May and June it was starting to look like he might have reached his ceiling, putting up a 5.73 ERA in May which ballooned to 7.84 in June. Reports of his velocity seemed fine, but he was reportedly relying on the velocity with poor command and essentially no secondary stuff. The Giants Pitcher Whisperers went to work and his numbers improved considerably in the last two months with sub-3 ERA's in both July and August. Even though his full season ERA was only slightly better than 2012, his K/9 and BB/9 were both significantly improved.
The improvement got him a September callup where he was most impressive in his 9 appearances. I saw several of his appearances on TV. He had a FB that registered 92-94 MPH on the radar gun but appeared to get on hitters quicker and harder than that. It also appeared to have excellent life with late movement. He also had a tight slider or cutter with a late hooking, downward break that was a swing and miss pitch.
Best of all, he looks just a little bit crazy or off-center out on the mound which, IMO, is an essential quality for an ace MLB closer or setup man. He is similar in size to Brian Wilson. Whereas Wilson had that kind of crazed, vacant stare, Hembree has this nasty lip curling thing that he does with a slightly different look in his eye, but just as inscrutible as BWeezy's.
There has been some carping about his velocity being lower than advertised. I believe this is a purposeful dialing back to gain command and movement. That he was able to do it and add the effective secondary pitch in such a short period of time, bodes well for the future, IMO.
Barring injury or a complete loss of command, I see Hembree as a lock to make the Giants 25 man roster pitching out of the bullpen where he should continue his dominance. This proximity to the majors coupled with a high probability of success and an eventual ceiling as high as MLB closer is what got him the #3 ranking on my 2014 Giants Top 50 Prospects list.
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Major controversy with Hembree at #3 !!! Only kidding. This ranking is more of a reflection of the uncertainty of the guys behind him, let's say 4-10. I think most astute Giants fans get the feeling that Hembree will be an important cog in the bullpen. He may not be Craig Kimbrel, but maybe he's got something along the lines of Jim Johnson or Addison Reed in him. If the guys behind him on your list were banging on the door louder (and closer to the bigs) they'd probably have gotten the nod. Personally, I think Susac is going to be a more desirable piece within the Giants system. I don't take an .820 OPS in the EL while grinding behind the dish lightly.
ReplyDeleteI like Susac a lot. The slash line, in particular, is most impressive. The one question I have about him is is durability behind the plate. I think he still needs to prove he can handle the pounding back there.
DeleteHe may never become Yadier Molina behind the dish, but with enough reps he should hone his skills enough to become big league competent.
DeleteDo you see Susac more as trade bait or as part of the solution to move Buster Posey out of the catching position? Buster Posey is the catcher of the Giants for _____ more seasons.
I don't think that the chess moves are mapped out that precisely. I believe that after Posey's injury in 2011, the Giants sensed a need for organizational depth at catcher. Right now, that's what Susac provides. The Giants will worry about sorting out the possible future logjam/blocking issues when the time comes. It's not here yet.
DeleteAlso, the concern for Susac behind the plate is not that he cannot hone his skills. I am quite sure he can. What I am not sure of is if he can physically take the pounding.
DeleteCan Buster Posey "physically take the pounding"?
DeleteI am very worried about the physical toll catching is taking on Buster Posey.
DeleteIs there a rough rule of thumb that can convert a .820 OPS catcher in the Eastern League to an equivalent leftfielder in the same league around the same age? What would that left fielder's EL OPS be?
DeleteThere actually are projections of what Susac might be expected to do if he were to jump directly from AA to the majors. We'll cover all that in his writeup, but he projects very well.
DeleteBTW, Steamer projects Hembree to have a 3.51 ERA over 45 MLB innings in 2014.
DeleteYay! Someone who agrees with my assessment of Heath Hembree. I have him #2, as I see him (and Crick) as both making the big leagues and doing quite well there. The uncertainty factor, for me, knocks down Escobar, Susac, Mejia, Williamson, et al just enough to influence my ranking.
ReplyDeleteI'll be especially curious to see where you rank Flores and Law.
Of course, I hope all of them help the Giants to several pennants in the next decade.
i would again caution against getting too hung up on exact rankings here. The main benefit is a chance to get better acquainted with the prospects in the Giants minor league system. As you say, we hope all of these prospects are successful and help the Giants win many more pennants.
DeleteHopefully Hembree is leading the charge for the next generation of bullpen arms for the Giants. Cheaper, more heat, less steak knifes, and maybe some crazy. Looking forward to seeing Hembree ply his craft in the majors. Love how his ball seems to explode with some late movement on hitters. Also DocB, totally agree with your #3 ranking.
ReplyDeleteIt would be a positive sign if Hembree becomes an important cog in the bullpen in 2014. They didn't get enough help from the farm in 2013 according to Sabean which contributed to their downfall. The Giants could use a young hard throwing potential setup man/closer, hopefully Hembree is up for the job.
ReplyDeleteLG
A key reason for ranking Hembree this high is I have seen him get MLB hitters out, which is more than I can say for any of the other pitching prospects, and in very impressive fashion. It's admittedly a very small sample size and whatever went wrong in May and June could come back with a vengeance, but to me, seeing a player actually get the job done against MLB competition is a huge plus.
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