The Top 50 list is coming along. I have identified 86 Giants prospects to consider for the list. I think I have a pretty good handle on the top 20 at this point. Now gotta pare down the remaining 66 to 30. Great problem to have though!
Aaron Nola is a RHP from LSU. He is a pitchability guy with a 4 pitch mix(4S, 2S, Curve and Change), all at least average to above average with plus command. He's on the small side for a pitcher at 6'1", 183 lbs. He has a low release point, a bit Romo-esque. Here's his college numbers:
2012 7-4, 3.61, 89.2 IP, 7 BB, 89 K.
2013 12-0, 1.68, 118 IP, 17 BB, 117 K.
He will be LSU's Friday night starter and is expected to dominate in his Junior season.
BLF has him ranked #27. Matt Garrioch at Minor League Ball has him at #28 while BA has him at all the way up at #10 with the comment that he has "excellent life on a low 90's fastball and a plus changeup.".
Nola probably does not fit the profile of what the Giants look for in a first round pitcher.
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He may not have the body/velocity profile, but man, those are some of the most impressive numbers I've seen in any of these draft profiles. A 1.68 ERA at LSU... he must be doing something right!
ReplyDeleteNeither did Tim Lincecum. If Nola is available when the Giants pick, he should be given serious consideration.
ReplyDeleteWell, Timmy didn't have the classic body, but he did have the velocity and he had much higher K numbers, although the BB's were a lot higher too. If you read between the numbers lines, Timmy had much better stuff and just needed to harness it better while Nola is likely getting everything he can out of his stuff right now. Maybe that is all he needs to be successful in the pros too, but IMO, Timmy had much higher upside coming out of college.
DeleteIt's a deep draft and I've noticed rankings are various, depending on the ranker, which just might mean that we could be looking at some good choices in the 2nd Rd., even if we go for pitching back to back.
DeleteI'm one of the few ones who think we will see more prospect for prospect trades. I think if you can get a second round pitcher and develop him to be equal in value to a first round hitter, you create value. And because we can scout and develop pitchers, that's one area to focus on to 'create value,' whereas if we are not good at scouting and developing hitters, we should 1) get better scouts and teachers and/or 2) avoid, until then, drafting 1st round hitters and let them turn into 2nd or 3rd round hitters.
I agree with BLSL here. Unless Buster Posey is sitting there on a platter, avoid drafting hitters in the first round. Just a rule of thumb to avoid wasting draft capital: defer to the best pitcher available in the 1st and probably 2nd as well.
DeleteGotta take the best player available hitter or pitcher. First of all, the Giants sample size for first round hitters is so miniscule you cannot judge anything by it. Secondly, the jury is still out of both Brown and Panik. Thirdly, the success of Belt and Crawford shows that they can draft and develop hitters.
DeleteIt's not like the early returns on Chris Stratton are all that impressive.
You're right about taking the best available player.
DeleteThe conventional wisdom is that the Giants are better at drafting pitchers than hitters.
But conventional wisdom can be wrong... a lot of times.
My own impression is, notwithstanding your examples, that the Giants are average, at best, when it comes to drafting hitters, and above average, at least, when it comes to drafting pitchers.
That may be because the Giants simply draft more pitchers than hitters. The Giants have had their share of failures with developing pitchers Their track record with international pitchers, for example, is downright abysmal. Do you think they are great at developing American pitchers, but are clueless about international pitchers? Remember Ainsworth, Foppert and Williams? Dan Runzler? I'm drawing a blank on his name, but there was the lefty reliever who once hit 104 on the radar gun. For every Sergio Romo there are 3 guys like Dan Turpen.
DeleteLet's count it up:
Current homegrown pitchers: Matt Cain, Bummy, Timmy, Romo.
Current homegrown position players: Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford.
Seems pretty even to me.
I think what sticks out in people's mind is the phenomenal back-to-back success of Timmy and Bummy, but remember that is an extremely small sample size out of the whole of the organization and Buster Posey's success has been no less spectacular from a similar draft position.
...er make that 10 guys like Dan Turpen!
Delete104 MPH - Threets?
DeleteThat's it! Erick Threets! I actually saw him pitch one night in San Bernardino. Threw unbelieveably hard, but talk about a wild hair!
DeleteThanks for adjusting my impression.
DeleteMaybe that will put to rest the complaint that we can't develop hitters...thought I can hear the other side's counter argument that it's Cain, Bumgarner, Timmy, Romo AND Vogelsong on the pitching side, whereas on the hitting side, (not the positional player side, per se), we have Posey and Sandoval, with Belt still yet completely proven and Crawford more a player overall, and defense in particular, but not much a hitter. And looking at the pipeline, pitching prospects out-number hitting prospects.
Then the counter-counter argument might return us to your position that we have always drafted more pitchers.
That may be how this plays out.
Although pitchers are more susceptible to injuries, I believe they also develop faster and peak earlier, at least in terms of velocity so the early returns on draft picks are going to tend to favor pitchers.
DeleteDr. B: Nola's numbers in 2012 were off the chart for a college pitcher. Very few college pitchers go 12-0 with 117 strike outs with just 17 walks in 118 innings pitched. I don't recall personally seeing Nola pitch, but he must have something exceptional given his ability to pound the strike zone continually.
ReplyDeleteDo you remember a pitcher named Kirk Saarloos? His stuff was pedestrian but he had off the charts numbers in the minors. The Sabers were salivating over him like you wouldn't believe. He never made it! Just didn't have enough stuff to get big league hitters out even with the great command. Not saying that's the deal with Nola, but I would be very cautious about getting too excited over college numbers if the stuff is questionable.
DeletePitchability guys with unspectacular stuff but good control often excel in college and the low minors. Nola sounds like he has a bit of a funky delivery which also means he could be getting by with some deception. He might already have peaked physically. This kind of pitcher can struggle in the high minors facing more advanced hitters, and funky deliveries are not as deceptive in the majors after teams get a book on them. Nola is not the typical Giants draft pick... big and strong as a hoss, exceptional but raw stuff, projectable but definitely a project.
DeleteNeed to let these guys pitch a senior season before getting too hyped about them.
ReplyDeleteDrB, was that really you in a fangraphs thread about Grant Balfour or is somebody hijacking your handle?
No, I did not comment on Balfour.
DeleteI hope you could tell that is not my style of writing.
DeleteIt was over the top. It sure as heck seemed like somebody was parodying you. Interesting swap of relievers for A's and Baltimore. Who wins?
Delete