The Hot Stove got stoked to a white heat this afternoon as the Yankees landed Jacoby Ellsbury for a price of 7 years/$153 M with an 8'th year option for $!6 M more. It will be interesting to see how this works out for Ellsbury and the Yanks. I think it's pretty obvious that LH batters can't wait to play in Yankee Stadium, all that is except apparently Robinson Cano! Once upon a time, Ellsbury hit 33 HR's in a season. Since then his power has regressed dramatically. That short porch should be a nice cure for that. On the other hand, LH batters have been known to become pull happy in Yankee Stadium to their detriment. It's also an awfully long contract for a guy who has averaged 100 games played over the last 4 seasons, but you knew he was going to get it from somebody. Yanks apparently think they still have room to sign Robby Cano, but the Nationals seem to be making a run at him.
The Rockies traded Dexter Fowler to the Astros for OF Brandon Barnes and RHP Jordan Lyles. Fowler has had his ups and downs with some ugly home-road splits playing out of Coors Field. Barnes is an excellent fielding OF but with little stick. Lyles has never really broken through as a pitcher and you have to think he's going to have a rough time of it moving to Coors. Minute Maid Park is not a bad hitters park, but it favors pull hitters on either side of the ball with CF being a graveyard for drives that would be dingers in most other parks. Fowler strikes me as a guy who hits 'em more gap-to-gap. Still, the 'Stros didn't give up much and Fowler seems like a reasonable risk. I like his potential ceiling despite the squirrelly numbers.
The Rockies also signed Justin Morneau to play 1B. Morneau appeared to be on the verge of bccoming an elite hitter a few years ago, but has lost a lot of time to injuries including a stress fracture in his spine and a concussion. He may experience an offensive renaissance moving to Coors Field.
In a bit of a surprise, Salty signed a 3 year/$21 M contract with the Miami Marlins. Salty is a switch-hitter who basically can't hit LH pitching. No problem. Since LHP's are only about 25% of starters, you just use Salty as the lefthanded hitting partner in a straight platoon and you get close to the number of games you expect your starter to catch. Nice deal for the Marlins, but what can they put with him to become competitive?
Lastly, our old whipping boy, AJ Pierzynski, signed to replace Salty in Boston for 1 year/$8.25 M. I'm of the opinion that almost any 1 year deal is a good one for the team, so nice deal for the BoSox. AJ is AJ, what can I say?
Chris Haft seems to think the Giants priority at the Winter Meetings is to find a hitter to play LF with a trade being the most likely possibility. 3 names mentioned in the article are Chris Denorfia, Justin Ruggiano and Josh Willingham. I'll put my bets on Ruggiano who has been my #1 choice all offseason.
A van carrying 11 Giants prospects to a workout in Arizona was involved in a motor vehicle accident(MVA). 5 players were treated at a local hospital and released without any apparent serious injuries. The injured players included LHP Bryce Bandilla, LHP Adalberto Mejia, RHP Dan Slania, RHP Jeff Soptic and SS Kelby Tomlinson. Glad to hear everybody is safe and sound.
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Wow, some teams making some bold moves around the Bigs. .....OTOH, we have Sabean re-signing two huge question marks coming off meh to bad years for the rotation..And please help us if "3 names mentioned in the article are Chris Denorfia, Justin Ruggiano and Josh Willingham." are true...I'd take Willingham's HRs and OBP but I thought his days in the field were almost over?....IMO Rugginao is nothing but a 30 year old scrub..your basic AAAA Todd Linden type player....Honestly the aging Denorfia is the most complete of them all, a typical Giant/Padre pesky ball player.....Wow, did Sabean set his sights low this off season...Sorry, for the negativity, but Sabean'ss moves other than Hudson and reports of possible low tier moves have irked the heck out of me this off season...The Giants and Giant fans deserve and can afford better than Vogelsong and something named Denofia or Ruggiano....LInce, OTOH,was just a huge overpayment for what has turned into a 4th-5th starter
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
I agree. When you have position openings and the money to fill them properly - you want to fill your positions to make them count. Can't move laterally! Sure, next year perhaps a few of our favorite minors guys will break in and make an impact, but there will ALWAYS be another hole or two that needs to get addressed in addition. When addressing this persistent gap in the OF, just FILL THE VOID! Once and for all! Jeez, from Blanco, to Tores, to Burrel, to having Aubry Huff playing RF in 2011 - this hole has been a glaring vacancy for longer than I can remember. Sure, gems like Cody Ross were great, but they were also absolutely mild-sauce, temporary-fix commodities!
DeleteOn a contender like our team is, even if it means giving up value in one area, you cannot become great unless you take on the personnel who will actually Upgrade the team as opposed to being a piece of duct tape! If you have to trade Williamson, Mejia, Osich and Blackburn for Alex Gordon (or someone comparable) and a good relief pitcher - Do It. (Sure, Gordon is a highly priced commodity, but there's always a price - and the echelon of the player, not the actual player, is the point here.)
Case is, when you have a space to be filled - do it right. Moving laterally is moving backwards. We saw this in 2011, and though the team still had potential, the lack of offensive depth and the number of "Fill In" players (Torres, Ross, Huff, Burrell) is what caused us to force our hand, and make a very bad trade. Let's not see that repeated!
I have a hard time recalling Giants outfielders who they drafted and developed. I come up with Nate Schierholtz, then it gets foggy and historical. Having paid pretty handsome sums for Pence and Pagan, it would sure be nice if they could plug in one of their own. Bat him 7th, bring him along at a reasonable pace. But nobody is knocking on the door. Glancing at the top prospects, there's a busted Brown and a physical specimen just out of high A. Remember when Francisco Peguero was their top outfield prospect. Big Mac is the great hope here and I think Sabes is just going to be content building a flimsy bridge to get there. Here's to Gregor Blanco having the best year of his career !
DeleteOK, I get what everybody is saying here, but other than the Fister trade, I am apparently not seeing what you guys are seeing out on the market. Do you really want to pay $153 M to a guy who has averaged 100 games played over the last 4 seasons? What other moves do you think are changing the balance of power in MLB? You want AJP back? Morneau has been injured more than he's played for as long as I can remember. Fowler has some upside but do you think his home-road splits translate to AT&T Park? Come on guys! Show me these great moves that other teams are making, because I am just not seeing it.
DeleteAs for Ruggiano, yeah, he hit just .220 last year but with 15 HR and 18 SB and his .275 BABIP suggests he has some bounce back in him. Looking at what's out there, I would either go for him or just stick with a Blanco/Perez platoon.
I like those prospect(s) for prospect(s) trades - a Ben Snyder for a Escobar types.
DeleteAnd I hope Sabean can surprise us again, getting a Melky or someone we are not seeing now.
Remember, it's not how you start, but it's how you finish. Let Beane have his day in the sun...he likes being in the limelight. Can't deprive the man. Probably working with Hollywood about a movie called "How I won the Executive of the Year in 2013." Three World Series appearances and two titles since 2000 - try to accomplish that..especially winning the titles with home grown cores...he's not going to do that with Kazmir, an international free agent and all those trades.
Dr. B-- I'm really not talking taking the jump for the Ellsbury or a Granderson signing and losing the draft pick--even if I am more amenable to doing that than most on here for the right player (CHoo??)---maybe we get that number 1 pick back next year when we lose Sandoval and I also trust Sabean and Tidrow in the later rounds..-----------I think both Lince and Vogey were horrendous choices to resign....And after signing a question mark in Lince, I wouldn't have followed it up with a bigger question mark in Vogelsong and would have shelled out the money for somebody more dependable------ARROYO...or something like the FISTER trade
DeleteAnd now, with saving money on Vogelsong, you are at least able and need to do better in LF , butthen we hear he's looking at players like the three stooges mentioned in the Haft article..?
If those are all the moves to be , I could easily see a repeat of last year--collapse of starting pitching (Hudson also has some question marks).....and, at best, 2/3rds of an OF...I see Blanco as a great backup, nothing more...We need to use him where he can help this team best...getting ABs as the backup in LF and CF and a defensive replacement..
Just don't think Sabean has the right strategy this offseason...Again, hope he proves me wrong..
SteveVA
I think Timmy has a reasonable chance at a positive regression in 2014, but I was surprised to see how much he got. Way overpay, IMO. Vogey is a risk, but I see Petit, Surkamp, Escobar, et al as reasonable backup plans.
DeleteYou can complain about missing out on the Fister deal, but now it seems like a bunch of GM's are admitting they were shocked at the deal and were caught flat-footed. Who knew?
As for the FA market and other trades that have gone down, I just don't see any other deals I just need to have.
We'll see. I would actually be OK with a Blanco/Perez platoon in CF with Pagan moving to LF. We can discuss LF till the cows come home, but this season is going to be a success or failure on the starting pitching. In that regard, hoping for bouncebacks from 3 of the 5 plus Huddy coming off his injury is very dicey. Giants need at least 3 out of Cain, Timmy, Vogey and Huddy to be solid. That's a lot to hope for!
Dr. B - I really don't think we disagree all that much (even on ARROYO over one of the risks as we discussed below), except for LF where I think Blanco/Perez will be totally insufficient....Way too many, ifs, buts and "hope fors" in Sabean's strategy for my tastes...Hey, they can all come out positive, but if I was a betting man, I wouldn't put money on it..
DeleteSteveVA
I get that we weren't going to find a solid piece in LF. Ellsbury and Choo are just not in the budget and are both risks long term in my opinion. So I am just going to look at SP. Vogelsong? That bird has sung his last song. I wish him the best but he got lit up last year. With incentives he could earn around 6 or 7 million. I would much rather get a Garza/Nolasco type for 13-15 million or Arroyo if we could get him on a 2 year deal. Why couldn't we make a deal for Fister? It didn't seem like they gave up too much to get him. Sabes is just being Sabes. Giving money to his own players. That is fine when they perform well but clearly Lincecum and Vogelsong may or may not make it through the All Star Break. Lincecum could be in the bullpen in no time. I love Timmy but with his dip in velocity and now that everyone watches for his balls in the dirt he is not fooling anyone. The blueprint is out. I like the Hudson deal. He will be a good mentor for Escobar and possibly Surkamp. I just think we as fans deserved a little better product than what we are getting. It looks like a patch job until our kids from the minors get here.
ReplyDeleteGarza and Nolasco have underperformed their entire careers. Arroyo is going to get more than 2 years. Maybe the Giants could have put together a package for Fister. I really like that deal for the Nationals. We'll never know. Johnson and Haren are coming off a string of down years. What makes you think they are more likely to bounce back than Vogey or Timmy?
DeleteApart from the Fister deal which you have to tip your hat to the Nationals for, all I'm seeing in all these posts where people are carping at Sabes is a bunch of pie-in-the-sky dreaming.
One man's pie in the sky might be another man's logic...Taken as a tandem...Re-signing BOTH LINCE and VOGEY is a huge risk and, in my eyes, a mistake......One of those pitchers needed to be more dependable...If it costs an extra year for ARRYO to solidify a dependable staff (which you need for a WS), I'll do it..as I would have done a Fister trade....or maybe something else out there...Re-signing Lince AND Vogey, in addition to a 37 year old coming off a major injury, might have been PLAN Z in my book....To me, this coming year is based on a lot of Ifs and hopes rather then knowing the right talent is in place,,,.Oh well, different strokes for different folks....
DeleteSteveVA
Another possibility.
DeleteSabean talked to Detroit and said to himself, Fister for the equivalent of Dunning, Escobar and another fill in? Hmmm, wonder if I can get a LF the equivalent of Fister for the same, or a little more? Maybe I hold on to them, don't do the Fister deal but use them (and a little more) for a LF?
Gaze, gaze into the crystal ball
Who is the best fit LF of them all?
I like Arroyo on a 3 year deal too. They guy has a very easygoing delivery and I think he can maintain his performance for the 3 years. There are people who participate in these discussions here who absolutely hate the idea of Arroyo on any kind of deal. It's very hard to make everybody happy. No! Make that impossible to make everybody happy!
DeleteSo much for free agents. How about a trade for Nick Markakis? His name has been floating around and it looks like the O's would like to get rid of his contract (15M), with only a one-year commitment and a club option. My guess is it wouldn't take too much to cut him loose.
ReplyDeleteThat first trade, Monell for money - Sabes was just warming up.
DeleteExpect another one...bigger, hopefully.
Of all the possible trade options out there, I would gladly take Markakis. He's not likely going to set the world on fire anymore, but he's a solid enough player to move Blanco back to the 4th OF role... which would be ideal. Baltimore is already shedding salary (see Johnson, Jim), so maybe this would be the type of deal where the Giants could take on the money and not give up as much on the player end. He's coming off a down season, and next year is the last on his contract, but he's been a very solid big leaguer for his entire career. I know we're taught to believe that lefties can't hack it in SF, but I really don't buy into that notion all that much. If Belt can hack it as a lefty hitter at AT&T, I think Markakis would do just fine.
DeleteYou know, the more I think about it, the more I think this is the type of move Sabean needs to make. If I'm the GM of a contending team, and my team is looking to find an every day player, I'd have no problem bringing in a proven guy like Markakis. So I guess the only question is, what's it going to take?
I've also considered Markakis. After his 2013 season (lower ISO than Blanco in a hitter friendly yard), I'm sure Baltimore would love to shed that salary. Provided the Giants paid the bulk of it, they wouldn't have to send much. In fact, Sabean could probably go back in time and trade Monell for Markakis.
DeleteIf Blanco has an OBP of .340 and a higher ISO than Markakis, they whytheheck would we want to pay Markakis 3 or 4 times as much to replace him?
DeleteThat just reinforces my point that it's a lot harder to upgrade on Blanco than it looks at first glance.
But we need to remember that Blanco plays much better offensively when he is in a reserve role, or at most, a Platoon.....And he still provides zero power..An area that Sabean said we needed to improve upon..Has that changed? .Once again HOPE is the magic word..We haven't brought in a bat from the outside but are hoping that Sandoval, Belt, And Posey can all raise their power numbers and that Pence's doesn't decline all that much...and somehow magically it will appear on the bench ....Again, a lot of hope and wishful thinking instead of actually acquiring..
DeleteSteveVA
Well, a couple of people here suggested trading for Nick Markakis to play LF. Here are Blanco's and Markakis' stat lines for comparison:
DeleteMarkakis: .271/.329/.356, ISO= .085, wRC+= 87, Def= -14.1, WAR= -0.1.
Blanco: .265/.341/.350, ISO= .084, wRC+= 99, Def= +10.3, WAR= 2.8.
Blanco has a higher OBP, equal Iso and is a plus defender while Markakis is a terrible defender.
So I ask, why on Earth would you want to not only give up a prospect or 2 in trade but then pay Markakis 3-4 times as much as Blanco when Blanco is clearly the better player of the two?
I bet if I took a poll of readers here and asked them to say off the top of their heads without looking up any stats who they would rather have, Markakis would win quite handily. Unfortunately the statistics show Blanco to be the better player and it isn't even all that close! That is why I say it is more difficult to upgrade on Blanco than most people think at first glance.
I don't agree that Blanco necessarily plays better in a reserve role or if he does that it disqualifies him from starting. He had a midseason slump that looked to me like it came from him becoming enamored by his own power and trying to pull everything out of the park to RF. Once he got back to hitting gap-to-gap, he recovered for a nice finish.
DeleteNot meaning to quibble, but the lifetime numbers look different than last year:
DeleteMarkakis, lifetime (8 yrs, 4600 ABs), had this line: BA .292, OBP . 360, SLG. .441
Blanco, lifetime (5 yrs, 1555 Abs), had this line: BA .257 , OBP .341, SLG .350
Markakis is a lifetime .801 OPS guy; Blanco is a lifetime .690 guy.
If you want a leadoff type, I’d definitely go Blanco. (Hey, I LIKE Blanco!) But if you want more punch down in the lineup, Markakis is the guy. That’s why he has the big contract. True, maybe he’s dropping off, and maybe the contract is too big, but I don’t think it’s fair to say Markakis wouldn’t be an upgrade if that’s what you’re looking for.
OMG! You have to be kidding me, right? Markakis started his career like a house afire. At one point he was being drafted as a high first rounder in fantasy leagues! Have you looked at what he has done in the last few seasons? I certainly hope you are not suggesting that there is any reason at all to think Markakis is going to have some kind of bounceback season! You are not going to now compare his front end inflated numbers with Blanco, who has actually been getting better, are you? Using Markakis career numbers to compare with Blanco's in the past 2 years is downright disingenous, IMO!
DeleteI went back and reviewed Markakis' career stats on Fangraphs. He had a very good season in 2008 putting up a WAR of 6.1. His career has been in steady decline since. He ain't having no bounceback!
DeleteJust for emphasis: Gregor Blanco is not just a better defensive OF than Nick Markakis. He is a better OFFENSIVE OF too!
DeleteOK Doc, don't sugarcoat it! Tell me what you really think!
DeleteOf course Gregor Blanco is a great OF. (Just ask Matt Cain!)
But see:
Markakis 2012 (420 AB): BA .298 OBP .363 SLG .471 OPS .834
Hard to say that he's in a years-long nosedive. But I don't think it outrageous to think he might be a little better than 2013 in 2014.
OK, maybe I was a little too harsh there but Markakis did tick up a bit in 2012 but you can draw a regression line on on his stats since 2008 and it is steadily downhill. Markakis, at this point in his carreer, is not an upgrade on Gregor Blanco.
DeleteYou also have to remember that Markakis has been playing in a hitter friendly park in a division with 2 other very friendly hitter's parks.
No! Just no, on Markakis!
DrB - Chicken or egg...As a starter, maybe he thinks he has to do to much, changes his approach and helps the team little..As a reserve/part time starter, he is in his comfort zone, hits like he should and helps the team..Why should things change? or should that just be another HOPE it changes?
DeleteSteveVA
Maybe Blanco plays a little better with a game off here and there. He definitely hits better against RHP's which shouldn't be too surprising. That does not mean he has no value as a starter or hitting against RHP
Delete's. You still have to find someone who can play better than him in a starting role or against RHP's!
Blanco had over 500 PA's last year. There were only 30 OF's in all of baseball who had 500 or more. That would certainly qualify him as a starter, right? Yet, he put up better offensive numbers than Nick Markakis who had close to 700 PA's and played in a hitter's park in a hitter's division.
Blanco is more than adequate as a starter! It would be nice if he stayed out of his customary mid-season slump, but I'm not buying that starting was the cause of that. More likely with Pagan out and the whole team slumping, after hitting a few off the RF wall, he started thinking he could and should carry the team and started trying to do too much. Besides, most hitters go through at least 1 slump during the course of a season.
I have to ask, if Blanco is a more than adequate starter, then why are the Giants publicly stating their intentions to "upgrade" his position? Blanco has two full seasons under his belt, and in those full seasons he's had nearly 1,000 AB's to the tune of a .256 BA and an OBP and SLG in the .330-.340 range. He's a career .264 hitter vs RHP, and .232 career vs LHP. Yes, he plays excellent defense, but I want my everyday LF to show more with the bat. I just don't understand how someone whose bat is mediocre at best can be called a better offensive option than a 30 year-old OF who'd been above average for his entire career until the All-Star break this season. Markakis has no platoon splits, and his career line of .292/.360/.441 blows Blanco out of the water. Even in a down year, his .271 BA still tops Blanco. If Markakis is that poor on defense (I can't say I watch many Baltimore games, and I don't put a ton of stock into the defensive metrics), then Blanco can surely step in late in games... as he has so many times for the Giants.
DeleteAdmittedly, the $15M Markakis is set to earn next season would likely keep Sabean away... but Sabean's comments about having money to spend led me to believe he could afford such a move. If he cannot, then it's a moot point. But if the money is there, and the trade package isn't too steep, I'd gladly have Markakis as my everyday LF.
OMG! Markakis' career is in free-fall so why do people keep harping on his career stat line?
DeleteSabean has said he would like to upgrade LF, but also clearly put that down on his list of priorities. He is also on record as saying it might not be that easy to do when you take the complete ballplayer including defense into consideration. He was clearly referring to Blanco there. His most recent statements on the Winter Meetings would appear to throw cold water on the notion that he's going to make any significant deals.
DrB, I'm trying to be fair here and consider all of the points. But I truly am not understanding two things specifically.
Delete1) How is Gregor Blanco a superior offensive talent to Nick Markakis?
2) How exactly is Markakis' career in a free-fall?
At the All-Star break this year, Markakis was a .283 hitter with 8 HR and 43 RBI. He had a second half collapse, hitting only .253 with 2 HR. But I will add, he still maintained his walk rates, which have always been a part of his game. Just for comparison: Buster Posey's 2nd half - .244, 2 HR. Posey is certainly not in a free-fall after one poor 2nd half, so why is Markakis? It's not like we're talking about a 38 year-old vet here... the guy is only 30!
Whether or not Sabean would even consider him is kind of moot at this point, but I can't get over the fact that you don't believe Markakis is an upgrade over Blanco (based on one down season).
"OMG! Markakis' career is in free-fall so why do people keep harping on his career stat line?"
DeleteWow. You are certainly starting a trend of misrepresenting numbers, Dr. B. Not a good one to get into, for the guy who heads a blogging site. (Also, chill a little, eh? You're being very forceful of your opinion.)
Here's Markakis' average stats over the last 4 years beyond his peak in 2008, and omitting a notably horrible year in 2013:
avg /obp / slg
.292/.358/.442
That is GOOD.
Add an excellent year in 2012, posting his highest OPS since 2008 with a .471 SLG.
If you want to say "his ISO is in free fall" or "his wRC+ is in free fall", go for it. However, it seems to me like this guy, while having to consider a very mediocre 2013, is an absolutely obvious offensive upgrade over Gregor Blanco. Blanco may be the better defender, and perhaps the stathead sees that as an overall win, but man.. I can't even say how much I dislike seeing folks freak out on everyone else like they're a bunch of idiots, when the numbers clearly demonstrate some strong points on either side of the coin. It just reeks of US politics.
I mean....Blanco has barely broken .700 OPS over a single season in his career, and he hasn't done it in either of his two years here.
Sorry if I am getting a little frustrated here. "Free fall" may have been a bit too strong, but Markakis' 2013 was not just an isolated down year. Since his peak year of 2008, 2012 is the only outlier in a steady downhill trend in almost all of his offensive categories. In addition, his defense by UZR is not just poor, it is downright terrible and has been consistently so.
DeleteBlanco was better offensively in 2013 and has alway been far superior on defense. I understand the desire for offense in LF, but it really doesn't help if it comes with terrible defense.
I just don't understand why anyone would think the Giants should trade away perfectly good prospects plus pay a $15 M salarly for a guy who is on a 5 year downward trend in his career and whose most recent season was worse in almost every measure than the guy he would be replacing.
Okay, so Markakis sucks. They'd have to pull a Heath Bell and send prospect to get him off their hands.
ReplyDeleteSo how about players that may be available from the Indians. Sure, there's Stubbs and Raburn, but what would it take to pry Michael Brantley?
Cleveland believes they are contenders. They will not trade anyone who they think can help them win now unless they get in immediate upgrade in return.
DeleteI count Bourn, Murphy, Brantley, Raburn and Stubbs as OF's for CLE, w/ Swisher an OF option. Murphy may make Brantley expendable. Hembree and Gary Brown for Brantley. Who blinks?
DeleteIs Brantley really that much of an upgrade? An OPS of .728 with negative D and a WAR of 1.6 does not exactly strike me as an upgrade on Gregor Blanco.
DeleteUZR is flaky. He's a full timer that hits for higher average. Reminds me of Randy Winn, by the numbers. Low K rate, profiles as athletic gap hitter. An upgrade that would bolster the bench by putting Blanco there. BTW, Hembree plus Brown is probably a low ball. I'm sure Antonetti would ask for more than that.
DeleteBrantley has had a negative UZR 4 years out of 5 and the 5'th year was barely positive, and since when is BA the stat that established the superiority of a hitter. I don't completely discount BA, particularly for prospects, but come on guys! I think the superiority of OBP, SLG% and OPS over BA was fairly well established a long time ago.
DeleteBrantley's OPS is slightly better than Blanco's but it comes with inferior D. Not enough of an upgrade, if at all, to warrent trading two prospects for.
Guys! I would not put it past Sabes to find a trade that none of us have thought of, but if you recall, both Melky Cabrera and Angel Pagan were widely believed to be on the trading block at the time of their acquisitions. I have reviewed with potential trade candidates out there several times. The only one that is of slight interest to me is Ruggiano and you have to count on a pretty significant bounceback season from him to think he's an upgrade on Blanco, but at least he can play defense.
ReplyDeleteReally don't know how you can suggest AAAA Ruggiano after jumping all over Markakis....Talk about bottom of the barrel......But, I agree and here's where I HOPE, that Sabean comes up with a tracde out of nowhere for a decent OF ..And I am not averse to giving up a prospect or two...Doubtful, but well see....But, again, the LF may not mean much with the questionable rotation that Sabean has settled on..
DeleteSteveVA
Steve, it might help to look up a few stats before you comment on specific players being better or worse than others. Here are the stat lines for Ruggiano and Markakis last year:
DeleteRuggiano: .222/.298/.396, OPS=.694,18 HR, 15 SB, 472 PA, BABIP= .260, wRC+ 92, 0.9 WAR.
Markakis: .271/.329/.356, OPS= .685, 10 HR, 1 SB, 700 PA, BABIP= .291, wRC+= 87, -0.1 WAR.
By almost every measure, Ruggiano was a better hitter and a better player last year than Markakis and their BABIP's suggest Ruggiano has the better chance of improving on those numbers in 2014.
Dr. B - I had looked......I never said I wanted Markakis....And I wasn't comparing them...Just that they both stink...Ok, more nicely, .I don't like either player one iota...I had no problem with your reasons not to sign Markakis...But, cmon, look at this Ruggiano guy....basically a lifer AAAA hitter until the age of 29 with nothing special...Finally has a decent year for MIA and then at 31 (last year) he hits .222/.298 in a hitter friendly ball park? No thanks.....No reason to expect any better...Bottom of the garbage bin just like Markakis....Sabean can and needs to do better than these options after saving money on the very questionable Vogey signing...
DeleteSteveVA
Here's a thought to scratch the Markakis discussion: Angelos is a Greek-American, he loves his Greek-American OF. I don't think he's going anywheres...
DeleteSteve,
DeleteI agree, taken in isolation the .222 and .298 look terrible, but you left out some important numbers:
1. The difference between OBP and BA represents a pretty good walk rate.
2. Ruggiano hit 18 HR's and His SLG% was respectable. His IsoP was even more respectable.
3. He stole 15 bases in addition to the power numbers.
4. Most importantly, his low BABIP suggests opportunity for a positive regression in his BA which will only add to his other numbers.
I wouldn't pay a lot for Ruggiano, but if he is available on the cheap, he is a good risk for a bounceback season based on his advanced metrics.
I'd emphasize Ruggiano is a 1-2MM player. That should be understood, sometimes you skip a couple parts of the equation once its been discussed a few times. The problem is that's the sweet spot for Scroog McLoria, he's a good enough player there might be a premium to carve him away. They did waive their groundball righty Webb...
DeleteAnother trade happens that we are not involved in. Norichika Aoki would have been a really nice pickup. 171 hits and 55BB over just 40K! This guy gets on base and has another 4 years of team control. What the bleep is our problem?
ReplyDeleteanother upgrade over Blanco that would boost the bench by putting Blanco on it. The cost seems on par with Hembree.
DeleteI would have loved Aoki. Didn't know that he was available. KC got him for a very reasonable deal, IMO.
DeleteOnce again, a .726 OPS put up in a very hitter-friendly ballpark with negative D does not strike me as enough of an upgrade over Blanco to justify trading Heath Hembree for.
DeleteLook, I don't have the baseball mind of some on here and I don't have the baseball mind of Sabean and, especially, BOCHY who I think might be the overall best manger in the game----can guide a long season cruise and when it comes to the POs there is nobody better at utilizing his people......That's why when I hear Bochy talk (several times) about the need for power and the need for a STARTING LFer, I take that to the Bank with the impression that he is not satisfied with Blanco in anything other than a reserve role and that the team desperately needs it.....
ReplyDeleteOf course, here comes Sabean telling Giants fans (and Bochy) not to expect anything of note for the OF, the budget, blah blah..blah...Look, you've been a fantastic GM for quite awhile but you didn't do your job last year and it sure looks like you are stuck in mediocreville this off season...Get off your duff and do your job of getting the Giants back into the POs....Once again HOPING a GM that seems to be basing the off season off of hopes of players turning it around (performance or injury) can get his groove back..
SteveVA
I agree with you Steve. This is a first-class organization, but I would say 2014 is a huge year in terms of future outlook. The farm system is starting to take off again, but the 40,000+ fans who pack the stadium every night, and every other Giants fan out there for that matter, expect to be competing for the division every year. Obviously, that's how the organization feels too. But I don't think the offseason moves have matched those ambitions to this point. Hudson is a nice signing, and locking up Pence was a necessity... Lincecum, to a lesser extent, was as well. But those moves should only be the start. I don't think it's right to tell the fan base essentially, Hey, don't expect much for left field. We'll do what we can, but it's not likely that we'll get significantly better. How does that send the message that the organization is in this thing full-on?
DeleteQuietly, I've been a little upset since the Vogelsong signing, and the recent comments didn't help. Maybe there really isn't anything significant available right now, but I would hope the front office learned a lesson after last winter. You have to supplement with outside pieces. You can't just bank on everyone coming back and having career years, and the previously injured to just stay healthy and thrive... there's a bit too much wishful thinking going on for my liking lately.
What happens from now to March will go a long way in telling the fan base what to expect for next season. I sure hope a deal gets done, and Sabean achieves the goals he set in place when the season ended.
So where were you guys a week or so ago when I was screaming bloody murder that LF is a huge priority?? Let me say what I said then and maybe everyone who has jumped on the LF bandwagon can rethink it. Nelson Cruz or Mike Napoli. Either one of them is a huge upgrade over any of the names that have been mentioned. Not perfect solutions to the problem but looking at it solely from a next years lineup perspective, either of these 2 guys would give us the biggest onfield upgrade within reason at this point.
DeleteI don't really want Markakis even though he is clearly an upgrade over Blanco. Dr. B may have talked himself into a corner on the Blanco issue. As a 4th OF Blanco is a stud but counting on him everyday is so much riskier than counting on a veteran pro like Markakis every day. Stats are stats and we could talk about them till we are all blue in the face, bottom line is that Blanco is not a starter on most teams in the league. Further proof of his actual value will be clearer when he gets to free agency and other teams dictate his worth with the contracts they offer him. Before he came to the Giants he was a wash out at KC so to assume he is going to have a decent year next season is like hoping Voggie bounces back.
Pato, DrB urges you to up your game from time to time. The Giants play in the NL West. Defense is at a premium. Please take that into account. Also, try looking at the ages of these guys you push. We want the sweet spot, 26-29. we don't want 30 plus. And I've said this a few times, Cots Contracts is your friend. You have to look at long term cost at times.
DeleteMarkakis is 30 right now, he is not good defensively, and his stats are inflated by AL east parks. Blanco IS a superior NL West guy. I don't know what he might get paid later in his career means, but he's got a ways to go and he's in the wrong part of the aging curve. Most likely he won't be paid much. That isn't a judgement on his skills though, he just happens to have ones that don't get big money. HRs get big money. Just ask Hunter Pence.
The lack of defense is more than made up for with offense. What was Pat Burrell's UZR or Huffs or even Bonds? Show me again how Napoli kept his team from winning the WS last year. At some point you have to stop focusing on every stat you can find that spins these players negatively and look at this lineup and realize that Blanco isn't going to get it done. This lineup and this pitching staff essentially were 10 games under .500 last year. Is Hudson enough to make a 40 game difference? I know Pagan was injured but is he really going to turn this entire lineup around all by himself?
DeleteAnd the Giants won the WS with Blanco playing LF the last 2 months and through the postseaon in 2012. There is more than one way to get it done.
DeleteThis team will succeed or fail on it's SP which may not be enough to get it done.
According to your logic, Voggie should be solid this year as well since he too helped us win the WS 2 years ago right? 2 months of Blanco in 2012 or the entire year last year, which is the bigger sample size and which is more relevant? The pitching staff could be lights out this season but without an offense we will be seeing the all too familiar 2-1 losses again.
DeleteNo Pato, that is what you call a non-sequitor. Blanco also played a lot of RF in 2012 before Pence came over. Then moved to LF when Melky got suspended. Blanco had 453 PA's in 2012 and 511 in 2013. He put up a fWAR of 2.3 in 2012 and 2.8 in 2013.
DeleteSteamer projects him at 1.8 fWAR in 2014 but Oliver has him at 2.7.
I think there are reasons to thing Vogey might bounceback in 2014 but they have nothing at all to do with Blanco.
I also don't get why you think they will lose a bunch of 2-1 games. The reason the offense tanked last year is injuries to key players at key times and a confluence of slumps. I believe it was ogc who worked out the math an with the current Giants roster, including Blanco, if everyone stays healthy and reaches their projections which are usually quite conservative, the Giants offense should produce and average of 4.66 runs per game. That is more than enought offense for a decent pitching staff!
Once again, the Giants will succeed or fail in 2014 on their starting rotation. Who plays leftfield is a very minor concern.
I'm at a loss about Sabean's invoking the budget after his saying, and Baer's saying, that money isn't a problem. Though I have also been disappointed in this offseason action so far, I have also recalled that we have lots of time to go before ST, therefore lots of time to make deals once the free agent situation shakes out a bit more. But if the great gray-and-green bogeyman of The Budget is being hauled out, significant deals become less likely in proportion to the number of times Sabean has bogeyman boogie for us.
ReplyDeleteHas Sabean used the budget as a reason for them not looking for a LFer? If he has, I have not seen it. My understanding has been that they acknowledge there is not much out there that they are interested in. Cruz, Beltran, Napoli, Braun all have major warts that I completely understand them not wanting to deal with. Not signing someone because they are a 32 YO bad defensive catcher with serious health concerns and an attached QO does not qualify as penny-pinching, IMHO.
DeleteOn Dec 3 Chria Haft quoted Sabean as saying the team had plenty of money for a LF. The next day, on CSN Bay Area, one reads the following:
DeleteRegardless, for now, Sabean doesn't see an everyday answer in left field. “I don’t know to what extent we’ll be satisfied whether it’s in the market or by trade to have it resolved,” Sabean said. “From a manager’s standpoint we’d like to have an everyday person out there whether it’s right-handed or left-handed. I don’t know how that opportunity will present itself or how we’ll be able to fold that type of piece into the budget.”
So he hasn't used the budget as a reason for not looking for a LF, but he has now used it as a possible reason for not looking for an excellent, everyday LF. Why else bring up "fold[ing] that type of piece into the budget"? This has nothing at all to do with QOs, health concerns, age, defense, catchers, warts, or--AS YET--with penny-pinching.
Sabean cannot help himself, he loves his budget talk. I'm quite sure they realized this is a PR disaster and told him to skip it for that "there's plenty of money" talking point.
DeleteWe'll see, the Giants should be loaded for bear to take down anything that makes long term sense. But you have to respect your opportunity cost, and they have had a nice run of picking up good OFs in trades. Beltran - Cabrera - Pagan - Pence is not joke baby. Yes, it cost a little, but not that much. Its not like any of those guys would be a difference maker on our team right now.
For me its still all about Tanaka. If Sabean folds that up with quick dismissal that would be some weak sauce. At 20MM you have to be in on that negotiation.
LF could kick loose some interesting guys if teams are out of it - KC with Gordon/Cain comes to mind, if they are out of it. Toronto might part with punky brewster. Balto most likely won't part with Adam Jones but he's a hacker, the Giants will LOVE him. The AL West OFs are kind of bunk. Except for that Salmon guy. The Pirates might be tempted to give up somebody to make room for Polanco, the Cubs can give us Schierholtz back if we're desperate... There might be some chances...
I thought Sabean already categorically dismissed Tanaka? As for LFs shaking lose later in the season, why will that matter if the season, as it looks like a carbon copy of last year with all the question marks in the rotation and a hole in LF, also ends early just like last year..I do not mind the Pence signing one iota but everything after that is filled with hopes and question marks.
DeleteSteveVA
Thank you. I had not seen that reference.
ReplyDeleteIf budget ends up being an issue, then that is complete bunk. They are the ones who over-paid Timmeh for marketing reasons (I am OK with the Timmeh signing, BTW, as long as a good portion of his salary is diverted to the marketing budget) and signed Pence to an arguable over-market pact as well.
That said, I am a believer that you do not spend money just to spend money. It has to make sense. Beltran does not make sense. Napoli makes zero sense. Morse does not make sense. Markakis and Rugierro make little to no sense. But, why were they not talking to Milwaukie (assuming they were not)? Why were they not talking to Dombrowski before signing Vogey (again, assuming they were not).
Hey where the hell you been? Commenting around here hasn't been the same.
DeleteI'm with you all the way about Beltran, Napoli, Morse, et al., and also wonder how much urgent talking Sabean has done, when I see the Aoki and Fister trades. My one objection is that I do not believe it makes sense to talk about overpayment, which is based on a prospective production times a WAR market value that's in flux, with some imponderables added in (clubhouse presence, filling specific holes, . . .). What one needs to consider, to my mind, is the team's willingness to spend, even spend big, when they can make significant improvements to the team. Sabean has said that he can do that, that there's plenty of money. I am made very uncomfortable by what DrB calls his "doubletalk," esp when the doubletalk represents backsliding to the RDF-type cant (to justify a hiring can't) that we have had too much of in past years. If the doubletalk is, as Shankbone hopefully believes, simply Sabean's larynx running rogue and heading for old habits, it's just a nuisance to us Giants fans. But if the no-can-do budget talk comes after the assurances that the budget isn't a serious constraint, then there's cause for worry, and like lots of people on this site, I am worried.
DeleteI think what Sabes is referring to is big, longterm contracts like what Ellsbury got. I also think that the Giants thinking is that there may be more attractive talent available for a better price at the trade deadline than the Winter Meetings.
DeleteSabean has done some doubletalk on the budget. Doubletalking is something he does from time to time. Not sure what the story is there.
ReplyDeleteFrom everything I've read from Sabean's quotes to Chris Haft and Andy Baggerly's writings, I would say that Sabean would like to upgrade LF but realizes that it won't be easy, because of a weak market and because Blanco is a lot better than most people give him credit for. At this point I think the Giants are willing to wait until mid-season to see if better options come available if the right deal does not present itself at the Winter Meetings.
I suspect Sabean is still a bit raw about the backlash on missing out on Vlad. The local media had hyped the fact that the Giants "would" get him, and when they did not, The org was raked over the coals. Better to keep the expectations of the "Lunatic Fringe" down and give them a surprise gift than to get them hyped and then disappoint them.
DeleteI remember the Vlad madness. I was in their doing the payroll calculations with the rest of them over on sfgiants.com message board. That was where I learned, an learned well, that when Sabean says something definitive such as "don't expect any big FA signings" you best pay attention because he means it.
DeleteIt certainly was not Sabes that fueled the Vlad expectations. He said from the beginning it wasn't going to happen. The media and the fans just assumed that his comments were a smokescreen, which they weren't.