It wasn't quite a blockbuster trade, but pretty significant. The Angels, D'Backs and ChiSox pulled off a 3-way deal with Mark Trumbo ending up in Arizona, Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago in Anaheim and Adam Eaton on the South Side of Chicago. There were a couple of minor leaguers exchanged between the Angels and D'Backs to boot. So, where to start with this?
Last year, the D'Backs unloaded all their power hitters who struck out too often in favor of gritty, scrappy dudes who got on base a lot. This deal would appear to be a renouncement of that strategy just 1 year later. Trumbo is a guy who strikes out a lot, doesn't walk much and is poor on defense, except at first base, and he ain't gonna be playing there in Arizona. What he does is hit a lot of dingers and drive in a lot of runs. The Sabers may scoff at that, but it's not nothing. Looking over his UZR's, it looks like he is not as terrible in LF as he is at 3B or RF or it could be just a sample size thing. As a Giants fan, I was pretty happy when they traded away all their power hitters and I think they are just a bit more dangerous with Trumbo in the lineup, although there are trade-offs as is almost always the case.
The D'Backs have a surplus of pitching. Skaggs was a highly touted pitching prospect as recently as last offseason, albeit one I always thought was a bit overrated. He had a terrible season and showed reduced velocity. Some analysts are saying the reduced velocity is due to mechanical changes the D'Backs forced on him, but I'm always skeptical of theories like that.
Adam Eaton is a darling of the Sabermetrics crowd due to prodigious walk rates in the minors and in a partial MLB season. At one point he appeared to be the guy the D'Backs were going to build their future around, well, him and Paul Goldschmidt. He lost about a year due to TJ surgery and was not as effective when he returned from the layoff last year. he may still be that rare high OBP leadoff guy, but I suspect MLB pitchers have figured out they don't have much to worry about by challenging him in the strike zone and he will struggle until he proves he can make them pay. The D'Backs have Tony Campana who can play a similar role and a young OF named Alfredo Marte who may have more upside than Eaton.
In short, I don't think the D'Backs gave up as much as some people are thinking to land Trumbo.
The Angels were in desperate need of starting pitching and got two lefties with MLB experience. They come with some risk of both busting, though, and the Angels could have still used Trumbo as a DH even with the acquisition of David Freeze and the emergence of Kole Calhoun. They might have been better off to add pitching via free agency, but they seem to be quite desperate for money which really bodes ill for their future what with their ridiculous commitments to Pujols and Hamilton and Trout's expensive years looming in the future.
The White Sox lose a decent SP and gain a lottery ticket in Adam Eaton as discussed above.
So, could the Giants have landed Trumbo? The answer is clearly no, because they do not have SP's with MLB experience to trade. End of story!
Today, Brian Sabean did not even bother to talk about trading for a LF. He is spending most, if not all, of his time bragging about how desperately other GM's want to get their grubby mitts on his prized pitching prospects, and why not? He should be proud of them!
I notice that he also spent a significant amount of time singing the praises of Juan Perez who he called a "different player" the second time he was called up last year. Perez is having a pretty good winter ball campaign too, and we know Sabes pays attention to winter ball. At this point I have to think there is at least a 75% chance, if not higher, that the Giants open the season with a platoon of Gregor Blanco and Juan Perez in LF, or maybe CF if they move Angel Pagan to left. I know it's not a popular sentiment, but I'm OK with that.
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From mlbtraderumors, looks like Alejandro De Aza might be in play and the White Sox want a catcher (H Sanchez, perhaps) plus a pitcher. De Aza had a heck of a year and I believe he's only 22. Might be just what the Giants need.
ReplyDeleteI"m pretty sure De Aza is older than 22. I'll look it up.
DeleteI like De Aza but he is 30 yo on 4/11/2014. If they can pick him up cheap, I'd be OK with it.
DeleteCan't believe the ChiSox are going to give him away, though.
DeleteYou're right, not sure where I saw the 22. Thought it sounded a little strange.
DeleteThe Halos getting 2 young controllable LHP's and saving $4 mil in payroll is good for them, alot better then signing a Joe Blanton type pitcher again. Trumbo and Goldscmidt in the Dbacks lineup is scary. Very encouraging comments about Giants prospects in Pavolics and Baggs columns this week. A scout mentioned that the San Jose rotation is the best he's seen on any minor league team in a decade! Esobars pitching mix reminds another scout of Odalis Perez, who was pretty good #2 starter. Ty Blach being compared to Tom Glavine & Jimmy Key. Can't wait to see these young SP's become major league ready..
ReplyDeleteLG
Odalis Perez had a wicked changeup. Jimmy Key. There's a name. Fine pitcher. Finished 2nd in the CY twice.
DeleteTrumbo could be 40 HR scary in AZ. Goldschmidt too. That's murderers row for Lincecum when he's up. Cain too.
We do have a shining pipeline of phenomenal pitching and I do daydream about it more often than I like to admit, but as Dr.B mentioned the other day, nothing is etched in stone when it comes to prospects, and so, we all have to temper our expectations a bit (wiping off the saliva in my mouth).
DeleteWow, this is why Sabean angers people...IMO, he's a complete fool if he thinks some stiff named Juan Carlos Perez based on something like 50 ABs at the end of a down the drain year is a possible solution to the LF and power void that he himself talked about but has seem to have forgotten how important it is because he wasted money on questionable pitchers like Lincecum and Vogelsong....
ReplyDeleteAll I know is you cant' go into the season with a perfectly good 4th OF like BLANCO sharing (or starting) LF with punch and judy/limited on base guy like PEREZ who is only suited as a 5th OF, AT BEST......Again SABEAN is a fool if the he thinks he can copy the mistaken strategy of last year in LF and not suffer the same results...
OTOH, you trade or sign for a guy that, at the least can be a strong platoon with BLANCO and has some power, you are protecting yourself somewhat at ALL THREE OF positions because it's hard to believe that Pagan and the crazy legs Pence won't be on the DL this coming season. Going with Blanco and Perez means you are dead in the water--maybe not from the start but, at the least, later in the season and if and when one of Pence/Pagan has an injury...
But perhaps this coming year is not about winning but setting the course for when the young pitchers will be ready for the MLs as Giants or trade chips...
We'll see.
SteveVA
I have to completely agree with you Steve. I have been trying to get this point across with little success but you said it really well here, Sabes is trying to win with the same formula that clearly didn't work last year. Juan Perez is a nice story but at best he is Darrin Lewis and at worst he is a minor leaguer with no business getting starts on a team with any realistic playoff hopes. I don't think Sabes is a fool but my constant criticism of him is that he does the bare minimum instead of making bold moves. He has made it work twice in 10 & 12 but the other years we saw the glaring weaknesses get exposed and LF should have been a clear need for this team going into the offseason. This team was over 10 games under .500 last year and I don't see how a healthy Pagan and Hudson are going to make up the 35-40 games it would take to win the division. He is hoping that everyone stays healthy and has career years which just isn't realistic. Right now if Perez is his back up plan than he doesn't really have a back up plan and that will bite him in the ass sooner than later.
DeletePato - I am still a backer of Sabean and have some faith, but I really do not like his off-season moves this year...Maybe the "band back together" will work this year when it hasn't the last two times but I just think it is too much to HOPE for to have EVERYBODY bounce back..or play at their peak levels......
DeleteHowever, I will admit that this was a much better team with PAGAN in the lineup (say, 10 games over .500) and maybe Sabean thinks that and Hudson for Zito is all the team needs...I don't know...He could be right, but I think it's a huge risk and why not cover all the bases and your arse by getting as good an LFer as you can (within reason)...Be prepared for everything rather then looking at a disaster with an injury to an OF?
SteveVA
They were 16 games back last year, not 35-40.
DeleteSpencer
The Gregor/JCP platoon is in play, but I still think that's more like 35-40% likely vs 75%. Sabean has not acted desperate, but he still seems to be pretty proactive in vetting out all the options. Prices may come down after January 1, and/or they could looking at below-the-radar moves like signing or trading for 4-A type players.
DeleteOMG! Blanco has put up a fWAR of 5.1 over the last 2 seasons. His 2.8 last year put him well into the top 30 OF's in all of baseball. Ditto for his OBP. He is more than a good 4'th OF!
DeleteAs for Perez, we're talking about no more than approximately 1/4 of the available PA's for the position.
For the umpteenth time, the 2014 season will be a success or failure on the SP rotation, not on who is playing LF!
Pitching and defense.
DeleteI think they need to play better defense in 2014. Panda under 250 lbs will help. Sabes is talking a possible deal in spring. My guess is he will have a great season...maturity at last! I think Lincecum evolves as a pitcher and surprise people. Like the Redsox, we will do fine if a few key players re-emerge.
Be my guest, stick your head in the sand about LF and power from the bench....yes, indeed the starting pitching was the main reason the team stunk last year and probably will this year given the Vogey and Lince signings...... but the play from LF and lack of bench power also did their best to contribute to the mess and made everything harder....Also, excuse me for wanting to improve it and in thinking that Blanco is a much better player as a reserve (all positions) then when he has the pressure on him to start/quasi-start..But hey, let's just leave everything as is and hope, hope, hope...
DeleteSteveVA
Nobody is sticking their heads in the sand. Everybody would like an upgrade at every position it they could. LF is a reasonable position to look at. So far, I have yet to see a credible alternative presented by anybody that is a sure-fire upgrade on what they already have. Increased depth? Maybe, but no sure-fire upgrades.
DeleteSabes also has to look at the talent available and the budget. When a guy like Raj Davis goes for $10M for 2 years, I'd be inclined to say that Juan Perez can probably do the job probably better and for a bunch less money. From their comments I think Sabes and Bochy are a little surprised at the escalation of the salaries early on. Making a move, just for the sake of making a move is not the answer. It is still early, we can be patient.
ReplyDeleteCan't agree more. This isn't fantasy league baseball. Get over it Pato, Sabean and the rest of his team are doing everything they can to improve the team. Stop complaining and be happy we're not 20+ other teams who have bad front offices and the teams perennially suck.
DeleteBut he overpayed for everybody else and he can't do the same for a postion of need when they have said money isn't an issue? I don't buy that..It's his job to make the team better....He has in the past, I don't see it this off season.....
DeleteSteveVA
Steve, Steve, Steve! Exactly who do you want Sabes to overpay for in LF? Give me a name, any name and we'll analyze it. Just keep in mind that by more than one measure, Gregor Blanco would have been the best OF for about 10 teams last year.
DeleteHonestly, I don't Have a name or player picked out..I just want Sabean to due his due dilligence :) and improve on last year with money (to a reasonbale degree) not being a concern.....Last year, LF (and the bench) was devoid of power and offense..IMO, that needs to be addressed and likely with the same player....You keep throwing Blanco out at me, and I have no problem with him being part of the 4 OFs. I like him as a Giant...And he was good at the beginning and end of the season...I gather this measure of Blanco is WAR? which in his case is highly influenced by his defensive component of WAR ..However, these stats of Blanco also don't mean that much to me.....the ones I want to see are the same WAR stats of when he was really counted on to carry the load, in the months of July and AUgust, because this is what we are talking about if we are not getting anybody else of note...Just going on memory, he didn't play or hit very welll in that capacity...and that's the capacity that matters to me.....Now, you get somebody with a little thunder in
Deletetheir bat to share LF with Blanco, who can also play defensively elsewhere. and...I'm happy with that....
SteveVA
If you judge every player on the Giants by their worst months, you'd blow up the whole thing and rebuild from scratch. The only fair way to compare is to look at the overall production of the player over the course of the season. By that measure, Blanco had the 19'th highest WAR among OF's with 500 PA's or more and the 19'th highest OBP. Last time I checked OBP was not a defensive number and is, in fact, a pretty darn important offensive one.
DeleteWorst months under the conditions where he was really being counted on with PAGAN out and him wearing down....There was a correlation..And why I don't want him to be the only LF on the team but to be platooned with another player that can add some pop form the right side....Not just for LF, but also from the bench, which people are forgetting...
DeleteSteveVA
Sabe-haters, remember when Sabean wrapped up Hunter Pence for 90m, only to see Jacoby get a fat payday? Seems like he knows what he's doing in the OF. Remember when he found Cody Ross, a "cast away" with no future - even a crappy team didn't want him on top of the scrap heap? Repeat all: Andres Torres, Pat Burrell, Nate Schierholtz anyone? Remember when Marco Scutaro only cost a handful of pennies and a Charlie Culberson?
ReplyDeleteGive me a break on the "he's going with a strategy that doesn't work" garbage. Sabean knows value when he sees it (Scutaro, an old Renteria, Cody Ross, etc.), he knows when to pass when it's not worth it, he knows how to lock a guy in to reasonable contracts considering the market (Cain, Bumgarner, Pence) and he clearly doesn't think there is $10m worth of value in Rajai Davis when you can have Juan Perez at the minimum.
Point out the Wheeler deal, the Beltran walking, the Zito contract, etc. - every GM in baseball has just as long of a laundry list of crappy deals. The guy has built a bullpen, caught lightening in a bottle at the trade deadline and has a pipeline of phenomenal young pitching on the way in the coming years. Quit your bitchin'
#BOOM. Andy in SD
A good GM gets it wrong less often then he gets it right.
DeleteYou can still be a good batter even if you get it wrong more often then you get it right...3 out 10 is good enough.
Maybe the Wheeler deal is, if I read Andy in SD correctly, crappy (I did bit bring this up), but Sabean got a lot of other deals right, as I have always said.
I am so far from a Sabean-hater it isn't funny...Heck, I was praising the original Huff and Renteria signings and getting ridiculed left and right, with some justification...I even liked the Beltran deal, even in hindsight, I love that he went for it...I'm not gona go over all his moves but, suffice to say, Overall, I think he's one of the better to best GM's in the game....Does that mean I have to praise everything the guy does like a blind lemming? Doesn that mean that I don't recognize that he didn't get the job done in 2 of the last 4 years while performing amazingly the other two?
Deleteso, if I am allowed to think and have an opinion, I just do not like the way he has spent all of his money this off season..neglecting one hole that he himself yammered about and signing TWO BIG ?'s for the staff...
ANd of course, I realize that the off season is FAR from over and the LH/Bench bat can b filled any time in the next 4 months...Until then, I will have my reservations about that and the staff..
SteveVA
Steve, I may disagree, here...a little (I see more agreements than disagreements though), I respect your opinions. And that's the way it should be. We are all dealing with opinions here.
DeleteSteve,
DeleteI would not say that Sabes has exactly yammered about LF, if that is what you are referring to. It has always been no better than his #6 priority after Pence, Timmy, Huddy, Lopez and Vogey, or at least the #5 SP. He has said it would be difficult to upgrade when you take the total contribution of the players into consideration. He was clearly referring to Blanco and his defense there. He has said from the get-go that he will not give up the draft pick and will not make another longterm salary commitment that may jeopardize future payroll flexibiliity.
Now with those parameters in mind, show me a player, any player who would be a definite upgrade in LF.
I am okay with the Lincecum signing because I truly believe he could come back to form to some extent. But, I think his dominant days are over. Vogey on the other hand I think is done. I don't think we should have re-signed him and just gave him an invite to Spring Training. I believe Petit can do a similar job as Vogey and save about 5-6 million.
ReplyDeleteLeft Field is a huge issue with me. In my opinion the #14 pick in the draft is not that big of a deal. In the last 10 years only 3 players have really made it (Lincecum #10, Bumgarner #10 and Posey #5). All 3 players were taken in the top 10. I saw a study done of the top 100 prospects that covered a 13 year period. 69% of position players were busts and 77% of pitchers were busts. So why is this pick so important. The chance of it becoming someone like Posey is so low. I would much rather have someone like Nelson Cruz or Shin Soo Choo that risk everything on a pick that at best we won't see in the big leagues for 3-4 years. The next crop of minor league players will be coming 2015-2016. Wouldn't it be nice to have a really competitive team so they can just fill a couple holes here and there. I say punt the pick and get an everyday LF. I know Cruz has PED issues so he might not be the best but don't let this pick turn us away from anybody to make the team better.
You do realize that none of those pitchers you referred to were selected within the first 10 draft choices? Drafts aren't always as strong as this year's appears to be; and Posey, Lincecum, Cain, Wheeler, Crick and Sussac are all actually reasons why NOT to punt our highest picks. The same study you mentioned should probably have also mentioned that players drafted in the first two round ares 20x more likely to make the pros relative to later round picks.
DeletePersonally, you trade for a Dominic Brown and lose a good prospect, but you essentially count that as gaining your #14 pick who (this year) has a solid chance to as good or better a prospect as was traded. Hence, a large net gain...if you get a worth while guy in like Brown, that is.
Roger, is that 77% of pitchers drafted in the 1st Rd were busts?
DeleteIn that case, the chances of two consecutives 1st RD pitchers failing is 0.77 x 0.77 = 0.59, or 18% less.
You can do it for 3 consecutive years 0.77 x 0.77 x 0.77 = 0.46.
By keeping that pick, you increase your odds by 18% doing it 2 years in a row, instead of one, or 13% more if you do it 3 years in a row, instead of 2 and so on. The biggest impact is between one year and two consecutive years.
Since the study shows it is hard, one can interpret the data to make an entire different, in fact, opposite case that, precisely because of that, our team should not give it away...but it is imprecise.
Drafting 3 years in a row, and spending, say $1.5 million per year on signing bonus, (I am guessing here), totaling close to $5 million and you have100%- 46%, or 54% chance of not failing, almost even money. Then the guy can pitch at league minimum for output comparable to $7 - $8 million of worth, say. And he does it for 2 or 3 years, saving a total of $20 million? That versus the 3 year cost @ $5 million cumulative at about 54% of success, which is like $10 million for 100% of success, I guess, roughly speaking. The net is you save about $10 million, over the first 3 years of that draft pick's pitching career.
Just a back of the envelop calculation.
Roger,
DeleteSabes has said he will not give up the draft pick and will not take on another big longterm contract that could limit payroll flexibility in the future. I believe that is the right position to take, especially with LF.
1. Blanco is not nearly as terrible as you and others are making him out to be. He would have been the best OF on at least 10 MLB teams last year.
2. This team will succeed or fail on the SP rotation. End of story!
To me, It's not the End of the story....Say all the team in the West get good pitching..What you get out of LF, evenif it only matters a vfew games, can be the difference between making and missing the POs...If I want to win, I don't leave that up to chance...I try to be proactive and find a player that can help the team..
DeleteSteveVA
A run saved is just as valuable as a run scored. Someone did the math over on MCC, yes MCC! Defensive runs saved are actually slightly more valuable than runs scored!
DeleteYou don't give up a #14 draft pick and you don't lock yourself into a potentially crippling longterm contract when you already have one of the 20 best OF's in all of baseball manning the position.
Just in case anyone wants to see the article. Pretty interesting.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects
Not all teams suck at the same rate on draft picks. Just because the overall success rate is 23% does not mean that is the Giants success rate. They hit on 5 of 8 in the 2000's. The jury is still out on 2010 on. I fully support Sabes protectionistic stance on the draft pick.
DeletePlease tell me Jeff Baker is being courted as a Bench/Utility IF/5th OF player and not for 3rd/4th OF.Decent move if the former. Don't even want to talk about the latter
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
Let's see if the third time is the charm :
ReplyDeleteWhat do you folks think of Jeff Baker?
Pass on Jeff Baker.
DeleteLoaded questions for Dr. B since he has been touting Blanco's WAR totals as justification for his value:
ReplyDeleteMark Trumbo and his 34 HRs,100 RBI's accumulated 2.5 fWAR last year.
Blanco with his defense and walks accumulated 2.8 fWAR.
Was Blanco more valuable than Trumbo? Going forward? Should smart GM's be phoning Sabean about his availability?
Curious how you and others view WAR in this light.
I'm not sure why this is a loaded question. Trumbo is a name I have talked about as a nice trade target. Unfortunately, the Giants were not a fit as trade partners due to what the Angels needed to get in return, MLB ready pitching.
DeleteHaving said that, if you take both offense and defense into consideration, I am not sure Blanco is not the better player, particularly if you are planning to stick Trumbo exclusively in the OF(he was actually a positive defender by UZR at 1B). There probably is no significant difference between a 2.5 and 2.8 fWAR. It's just that one player earned his mostly on offense, the other mostly on defense, although Blanco's OBP comes out as a very solid offensive contribution to his WAR.
Yes, other GM's, seeing that the Giants are looking to upgrade LF would indeed be smart to inquire about Blanco. I'm guessing they have and I'd bet Sabes said no way!
Just thought you might care to comment on discrepancies between WAR and perceived value.
DeleteHow about this one?
2013 Juan Uribe = 5.1
2013 Adrian Beltre = 5.2
If it isn't rude for someone other than DrB to hop in here, and maybe add to the argument by adducing rWAR instead of fWAR, simply to put more figures in front of our eyes: Uribe has a rWAR of 4.1 for 2013, negative rWAR for the previous two years, just over 1 in his last year with the Giants, and 3.5 rWAR in 2009, following three years with an rWAR under 1; Beltre has had rWARs over 3, typically well over that, for the last ten years, for a total of over 70 in 16 years, while Uribe has 18.3 rWAR in thirteen years. When Uribe does well, it's an outlier; when Beltre does, it's an expectation. Both men are 34, so it's not likely that Uribe will suddenly grow to become a Beltre-like player.
DeleteObviously a weakness of any ranking of individual players, such as WAR, is that it has no way of accounting for a player's strengths on a given team, as to the surrounding personnel, the park, the player's role in a lineup, the player's volatility (consistency vs. boom-and-bust at the plate) within a lineup, and the like. Perceived value for one team may deviate from WAR more than for another team. But for AT&T with its wide spaces, I would say that DrB is absolutely right-on about Blanco.
Not rude at all. Thank your for hopping in. Here's one for you: without peaking at the #'s, how much better (or on par) is Gerardo Parra than Gregor Blanco?
DeleteRyan,
DeleteUribe had a very good year in 2013, so I'm not at all surprised that for that one season he performed as well as Beltre. If you were going to bet on one or the other repeating that in 2014, Beltre has been much more consistent in his career, so you would obviously take him.
Ryan, whatthehell is this? 20 random questions?
DeleteOK, I peeked at the numbers. Parra's WAR's the last 3 years: 2.7, 1.8, 4.6. Blanco has put up 2.3 and 2.8 in his 2 years with the Giants. They are both plus defenders but a lot of Parra's WAR spike was due to a huge spike in his UZR which can be unreliable from 1 year to the next. Parra has a little more power and Blanco has a better OBP. I know WAR is supposed to be park neutral but you have to believe Parra's power would take a hit if he played half his games in AT&T Park instead of in Arizona.
Overall, accounting for 2014 as a likely outlier, they are very similar players and of approximately equal value.
So Franklin G is now being linked to the Giants what can you all tell me about him and how he would fit the currents team?
ReplyDeleteFranklin Gutierrez plays first class defense and has some upside with the bat. He would provide depth with possible upside in the OF. I would be OK with picking him up as long as he costs virtually nothing.
DeleteI saw the Giants connected to Guiterrez ..Can't say I know much about him.....I looked at his stats over the last three years or so and was not impressed one iota....Very weak and injury plagued they appear at first glance...Was hoping somebody could convince me otherwise with out having to go back to his two good seasons which seems like eons ago.
DeleteSteveVA..
His Mariners career started with much promise, but was derailed by constant injuries. Can't remember his Mets highlights (if any)...
DeleteSpeaking of M's: sign Corey Hart to 1 yr deal and trade fireballer Capps for Logan Morrison...lotsa LH 1B power...sound a bit familiar?
I like Blanco as well. Move him & JCP to CF & put an Angel in LF.
Keep the updates coming, Doc! Great stuff.
NWGiantsFan
DtF!!!
I like Blanco and Perez as a platoon to start the season as well. I think they would be better in CF as well but you always have to wonder if Pegan can handle LF. Nelson Cruz has the bat for LF but he cost the Rangers big time in the World Series with his defense. For 15 million a year for 3 years, no thanks. Here is to Mac Williamson hitting 25 HR's over the first half to be promoted to LF at AT&T, it could happen!
ReplyDelete