Christian Arroyo, SS. B-R, T-R. 6'1", 180 lbs. DOB: 5/30/1995.
Rookie AZL: .326/.388/.511, 19 BB, 32 K, 184 AB.
With the recent advent of a televised amateur draft in MLB, you have to wonder what impact having pundits instantly analyze a team's choices might influence decisionmaking. While I am not accusing any teams of playing to the pundits, I think we all know there is at least one team that doesn't give a $#@% what the pundits say! No team took more heat after the 2014 draft than the San Francisco Giants, mostly for their selection of Christian Arroyo in the first round, #25 overall.
One thing that continues to mystify me is that with all the people out there proclaiming how great sabermetric knowledge is and how it leads to superior decisionmaking, the Giants continue to be one of the most vilified teams in MLB by these self-proclaimed wise men despite decisionmaking by the Giants which follows both classic and cutting edge sabermetric thought. Arroyo is one example.
Sabermetrics has long held that the hit tool is the rarest tool and the most difficult to develop. The opening chapter in Moneyball is a flashback to when Billy Beane was a prospect and running 60 yard dash times for scouts, the point being that those 60 yard dash times didn't mean a lot without a hit tool. Christian Arroyo is a solid enough all-around player. He's athletic enough to play SS in HS and for Team USA. On the other hand, he does not have outstanding speed or size or a cannon for an arm. What he does have is a very good hit tool, and that is why the Giants drafted him.
A great performance in rookie ball the summer of the draft does not make or break a future MLB career, but the Giants have to be pleased as punch with the early returns on their much maligned draft pick. Arroyo started off a little more slowly than the Giants second round pick, Ryder Jones, but he kept getting stronger as the season went along and finished with the 5 highest BA in the league and led the league in OPS at .896.
Now, I'm sure this comes as news to those who continue to loudly proclaim that the Giants know nothing about sabermetrics and do not value plate discipline, but in the last several years, they have quietly exhibited a strong trend toward drafting hitters who control the strike zone with relatively high walk rates and low K rates with excellent K/BB ratios. Not that they do it in every case, but the trend is definitely there.
Just for fun, I compared the BB% and K% for Arroyo and several other heralded draft picks who played in the AZL and performed very well:
Christian Arroyo- 9.1 BB%, 15.3 K%
Travis DeMerritte- 16.6 BB%, 28 K%
Clint Frazier- 8.7 BB%, 31.1 K%
Josh Williams- 5 BB%, 21.7 K%
Billy McKinney- 8.3 BB%, 14.1 K%
Interesting that the one guy who comps the closest in that list is McKinney who was drafted by none other than Billy Beane himself. Some of those guys are bigger and faster than Arroyo and may well end up having a bigger impact at the MLB level, but after years of seeing the the Giants draft "tools" players who couldn't hit a lick, I am more than ready to see if a guy like Arroyo, who turns that equation on its head might also turn out to be a better investment. My comps for Arroyo, mostly off the top of my head, are Nomar Garciaparra, Ryne Sandberg and Craig Biggio. The common denominator of those guys is they were not big guys and did not have outstanding tools except they could all hit.
Arroyo should be the starting SS for the Augusta Greenjackets in 2014 in what should be a most interesting first full season for him.
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Was Arroyo anywhere on your radar last year ? Or were you taken completely by surprise?
ReplyDeleteHey, Ryne Sandberg sounds great!
Who are some of the names you thought the Giants should have grabbed given your pre-draft rankings? It's a fun/lame game to ponder the shoulda/woulda/coulda's of bygone drafts.
Bring on the Sally for the future 2B.
I had not heard of Arroyo until late in the draft process. Once Kiley McDaniel broke the story that the Giants were in on him, I went on record as saying I thought there was some fire behind that smoke. There was just something about him and the story that rang true as the type of player they might go after.
DeleteI would not consign him to 2B just yet.
After seeing the Peguero's, Schierholtz', Burriss', Kieschnick's and Brown's of the world come through the system in recent years, I have no problem at all with the Giants taking guys whose bats stand out. Joe Panik may not have the flashy tools of others, but I really think he'll have some success in the majors, riding that steady bat all the way. He may not ever really have any power though... My hope is that Arroyo will develop some pop as he goes along. I know this is a term that most bloggers and stats-oriented fans hate, but Arroyo truly is a "ball-player." He won't wow you, but he seems to have the intangibles and makeup of a kid that's headed for success. It's alreay pretty obvious to see. That's why the Giants drafted him, and why most of the talking heads hated the pick. Honestly, I think it's the highest compliment you can give someone in baseball. He knows how to play the game, understands who he is as a player, and has the confidence in his abilities to succeed. There are so many other prospects out there who the tools, but not a lick of the other stuff.
ReplyDeleteIf you are right about the highest compliment, then, being a 'ballplayer' is even rarer than the hit tool.
DeleteThen sabermetrics is wrong, from the start, if it's wrong about the rarest tool. We have to get the most basic stuff right.
It was like drafting Joe Panik with a little more upside with the bat. Perhaps.
DeletePanik gets that "ballplayer" tag as well. Excited to see Joe play this next year. I live in Grizzlies' territory.
I think you're right about being a "Ballplayer". It's a tool. Buster Posey doesn't run fast, have an elite arm, and wasn't projected for much power coming out of school. He for sure could hit. But I think his tools are/were underrated. He was athletic enough to be a freshman All-American SS, and then made a seamless switch to catching. In high school as a pitcher one scouting report called him the "Closest thing to Greg Maddux he's ever seen." He wouldn't win a baseball player decathlon but when it comes to turning his physical tools into baseball skills Buster Posey is a savant.
DeleteArroyo with his swing, and thicker bottom half actually reminds me a bit of Posey. He may have that "ballplyer" trait as well, where the game just comes easier to him.
Maybe out of highschool... Posey had a 94mph FB as a closer in college. His arm is about as well above average for a catcher.
DeleteSo, he has sabermetric numbers but saber fans thought he was a bad pick?
ReplyDeleteMaybe Sabean is just not media savvy, I guess. Gotta get someone to write a book about you, perhaps.
My comp for Arroyo is LSU's Alex Bregman, who got hurt early in the draft hype process. He can hit the hell out of the ball, but doesn't have a firm position. Right now he's fighting the good fight to stay at SS at a premier college program, and playing for Team USA. This is what the Giants did: prevent Arroyo from reaching campus and being hyped to an extreme level, which Bregman will likely do (top 5 overall).
ReplyDeleteI'm glad the Giants strike out on their own path, and are known for that type of different thinking. Consensus is for suckers.
I'm not quite ready to proclaim the newfound profile of a Giants hitter a success. It will take several more years to see how it all pans out, but the early returns are cautiously encouraging.
DeleteI remember you liked Bregman a lot and it does look like he's gonna be a very high draft pick next go-around.
"Consensus is for suckers." They should put that on a banner and fly it above the park... with all the other flags that fly forever. Personally, I'm damn proud the Giants buck the trend. Makes winning the rings that much sweeter when everyone else says you can't do it.
DeleteCovechatter, drafting is hard.
DeleteNo one can really know for sure. That's why some seek shelter in consensus.
It takes guts for Sabean to say, forget the 'sabermetrics is great knowledge' pundits. I am going with the ballplayer.
Getting MLB hitters is hard as hell. I've been looking back at Sickels different system ratings, you're in there discussing that very subject back in the mid to late 00s.
DeleteThere tends to be a lot of frustration about the Giants lack of 'impact' - but if you look at all the top 100 the overwhelming majority is players drafted in the first 15 picks of the past 4-5 drafts, plus IFA guys. Then some sneaky sneaks of lower draft rounds, the kind you want to win.
The Giants get shrugged off for Posey, Sandoval, Belt and Crawford. Plus the farm system landing 2 other pieces in Scutaro and Pence. Plus reclamations in Blanco and the pieces for the Pagan trade. Instead of being happy, HAPPY with that, its pick on what they don't have.
Who knows how Arroyo will turn out, but to me he looked like an interesting pick at the 25 spot. And he has the Team USA MVP on his jacket, that's something that is total prove out. Sure its down a couple levels from where you want to be, but its an intangible. That's interesting to me. Just be glad Keith Law is nowhere near our organization, that guy couldn't carry any water.
I hear Keith Law is quite adept at boiling water and even getting the pasta to come out al dente.
DeleteI don't know guys. I think it is extremely interesting and somewhat encouraging that the Giants appear to actually have a well thought out game plan for scouting, drafting and developing hitters that makes some intuitive sense and appears to follow well established sabermetric principles. On the other hand, I don't know if I want to get all triumphalistic and irrationally exuberant about it until the proof is more in the pudding stage of things. The downside of this strategy is that they may end up with a team full of Marco Scutaros, not that he's a bad player by any stretch, but you wouldn't want 8 of him in your lineup.
DeleteIt's great stuff to write about and discuss, but I'll reserve the crowing until a few more of them at least get a little closer to the majors.
I'm always skeptical when it comes to young players. But I'm very encouraged by John Sickels' ratings. In his estimation there are 11 players that are B- and above and there are at least 9 C+ prospects after that. As he says in his write up, the Giants have a middle of the pack farm system. That's an improvement from years past, so things really do seem to be heading in the right direction.
DeleteI agree. Sickels doesn't give out B grades lightly and C+ for him means he thinks there is a good chance for future improvement. I see his grades as validating what we've been saying about the depth and potential in the system.
DeleteHow many players do you need to win it all?
DeleteIn 2010, our A players were Posey, Lincecum, Cain, and Wilson (maybe A-).
In 2012, they were Posey, Sandoval, Cain, Bumgarner, Romo (maybe A-) and Vogelsong (maybe A-).
In 5 years, who will be our A players - Posey and Bumgarner, plus?. We may need to come up with 3 more. I am just doing some rough calculation here.
That should be 'How many A players do you need..."
DeleteWhoa there, BLSL. 5 years is a long time! I think the only guy on the team who is projected to still be under contract by then is Buster Posey and we can only hope he is still a star player by then. Obviously, you would hope that Crick is an ace by then and that at least 3 guys out of the Escobar/Mejia/Stratton/Blackburn/Flores/Gregorio/Mella cohort are contributing to the rotation. Hopefully they can find a position starter or two out of the current crop too.
DeleteYeah, that's looking a bit to far I guess, but I hope our window of opportunity is still open then and I believe it's possible, if we continue to draft and develop well....more Arroyo's and more Cricks, and more Dominican dandies.
DeleteIts been a sea change in draft/development since the Timmy draft. It was miserable to have a B-list product on the field and punting picks at the same time. As far as exuberance, you really can't get better than winning the world series twice with home grown talent. I think that a lot of Giants fans still don't quite want to put the credit where its due.
DeleteOn the other hand, its a brand new day, and the Giants have had bad draft position for the past 4 drafts, and the results haven't exactly been quick to market. But we've been spoiled as hell, not only with the blue chip guys like Cain, Timmy, Bum and Posey but also Belt, Crawford and Hector Sanchez being rushed up as well.
I'm not saying the Giants are something hugely special. But they do comp just fine to the Cards in the past 10 years including the punt draft (the Cards jumping ahead lately with their stellar work in 2009, but our 2011 guys are about to come on line...). There is a tendency to not credit the Giants for anything, and that's weak sauce. If you have one bonafide MLB'er in a draft, you've done well. And what the Giants did from 2006-08 is extremely special including the results. But sure, past performance is no guarantee of future success.
My comment above was directed more at the drafts starting with Panik, which is about the time the Giants started noticeably looking for the low K/BB hitters that other teams were maybe sleeping on. The Paniks and Arroyos are the guys I want to see a little more of before I get too excited by this strategy.
DeleteDrB do you participate in the community prospect voting list on MCC?
ReplyDeleteI do when I am over there. I don't go over that often so don't vote in every one.
Delete