Thoughts on Eric Surkamp

Eric Surkamp's story makes a nice case study in the differences between scouting and statistical analysis in how they impact the evaluation of baseball prospects.  The Giants drafted Surkamp in 2008 in the 6'th round out of North Carolina State where he was part of a 1-2 starting pitcher tandem with the much more heralded Andrew Brackman.  Surkamp put up strong numbers for NC State, but scouts were less impressed by his stuff.  Here is a pre-draft scouting report from PG Crosschecker, a scouting oriented site:

"...Surkamp does not throw particularly hard and his stuff is marginal by pro standards.  His fastball is just in the 86-89 mph range though will touch 90, but he has an advanced feel for pitching and can keep hitters off balance with a 3 pitch mix...He has a good changeup and an average breaking ball, but needs to spot those pitches, along with his fastball, consistently to be effective."  An update later in the college season said, ".....a good feel for pitching but ordinary stuff."

He signed fairly late in his draft year and pitched just 17.1 innings between Arizona and S-K. He knocked around a bit, but had a solid 23 K against 5 BB's with a 1.55 GO/AO.  He put up remarkably consistent and quite dominant numbers over the next 3 seasons while moving up one level per season:

2009  11-5, 3.30, 131 IP, 39 BB, 169 K, GO/AO= 1.16.
2010   4-2,  3.11, 101.1 IP, 22 BB, 108 K, GO/AO= 0.91.
2011   10-4, 2.02, 142.1 IP, 45 BB, 170 K, GO/AO= .97.

I googled Eric Surkamp Scouting Report and found a lot of interesting articles from this period mostly making the case that Surkamp's numbers trumped his mediocre scouting reports.  I remember a few internet legends sprouting up.  One was that the secret to his success was a devastating curveball and another that his velocity was actually closer to 92 MPH.

He was called up from AA in 2011.  I had never actually seen him pitch in the minors so I watched his first MLB start with some anticipation and curiosity about his stuff.  I remember being disappointed.  The scouting reports were remarkably accurate.  His fastball might have touched 90 mph once, but sat at around 88 and tended to be up in the zone.  The curveball, which was supposed to be his big strikeout pitch was more of a slurve and did not appear to do much on it's way to the plate.  The changeup certainly did not make anyone forget Noah Lowry's MLB debut.  He made a total of 6 starts and finished with line of 2-2, 5.74, 26.2 IP, 17 BB, 13 K, GO/AO= 0.68.
I read a PitchFx analysis of his MLB stint which confirmed that his average FB velocity as just under 88 MPH and tended to be up in the zone.

John Sickels of Minor League Ball who is a statistics oriented analyst ranked him at #7 in his 2012 Giants Top 20 prospect list 1 slot ahead of Kyle Crick.  I think his comment is most interesting and stands in contrast to the earlier PG Crosschecker comments:  "Doesn't throw hard, but has the statistical components of a power pitcher, excellent K/IP's and few hits, in the minors anyway.  Was more tentative in the majors once the scouting reports got aroundand was hit hard.  I think he can adjust and become a solid number 4 starter." His comment about Crick, "High ceiling arm, potential for four major league pitches with a workhorse body, still refining command.  Could be a top prospect in the system in 2 years but isn't there yet."

I think you can sense the distinct difference in tone between Sickels, who looks at Surkamp's numbers and sees dominance, and his relatively faint praise for Crick's raw talent as opposed to PG Crosschecker's fairly open disdain for Surkamp's stuff.

I saw Surkamp pitch in spring training of 2012 against a relatively weak Mariners travel squad, but came away more impressed than I was from what I saw in 2011.  His fastball seemed to have a little more life and he commanded his 3 pitch mix well keeping the Mariner batters off balance.  He outpitched none other than Felix Hernandez that day!  I thought he would start the season in Fresno but be the first option for a callup and I was optimistic that his second chance in the majors would go a lot better than his first.  Of course, the 2012 season was the lost to injury and ultimately TJ surgery.

Surkamp came back from TJ around mid-season of 2013.  He pitched well for Fresno winning 7 games with a sub-3 ERA, but his K/9 took a hit coming in just under 7 and he continued to show a strong flyball tendency.  He got 1  MLB start and was hammered as we all know.

He got caught in a numbers crunch and was DFA'd from the 40 man MLB roster yesterday to make room for Mike Morse and Ryan Vogelsong.  This does not automatically spell the end of his Giants career, but certainly puts up a huge question mark around his future with the team.  Just the fact that the Giants apparently prefer to keep Hunter Strickland on the 40 man roster than Surkamp probably tells you a lot.  Personally I was willing to chalk up the drop in K rate and the shellacking he took in the MLB start to not being back to full strength from the TJ surgery.  I was kind of looking forward to seeing what he could do in his first full season back, figuring he would start out in Fresno where we might see a return of the high K numbers.  I did make note that Sabes sounded annoyed with his performance at the end-of-season press conference and wondered if that might be a sign of trouble ahead for Surkamp's Giants career.  I guess we found out yesterday!

The story is not finished yet, and the ending may be forever inconclusive because of the injury that came at a key moment in his career, but as it currently stands, the lesson is, don't trust minor league stats if they are not supported by the scouting report!