Here's a not so hypothetical ranking question I would like some input from the community on. Say you have a highly ranked prospect, and that prospect suffers a severe injury that he may recover completely from, but if he doesn't, it could be the end of his career. Think Buster Posey having his injury while he was still a prospect or Gustavo Cabrera's current situation. How would you handle that in ranking said prospect? I'll make it multiple choice:
1. Assume they will fully recover and rank them as if the injury did not occur.
2. Assume the worst until proven otherwise and not rank them at all.
3. Split the difference. Rank them, but rank them lower knowing that the outcome is more likely to be either #1 or #2 rather than somewhere in between.
What say you?
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Since the ranking has no actual consequences, I would suspend judgment, assuming nothing, best, worst, or in between. This is the sensible wait-and-see that this site adopted with Villalona.
ReplyDelete+1
Delete3. Split the difference. Every prospect list has a degree of risk/reward. Every prospect is a random injury from never playing again. If I were doing a Sickels-esque ABC grading, I'd bump Cabrera down from plus to minus (or two pips). So if I thought he was B+ he'd become B-, if I thought he were B, he'd become C+. I think I did something similar with Angel Villalona and his legal then visa problems - but I bumped him down a full letter. Th difference: Cabrera may miss some development time, but I don't think he'll miss as much as Villalona.
ReplyDeleteIf I thought he might be #2 or 3 in an organization's prospect list he'd take the letter hit, and in the Giants org, that drops him below the cluster DrB has talked about 3-15.
A nice thing about top 10 lists is they basically show the top tier of prospects. Any list beyond that (especially for a single organization or even all of MLB) gets real muddled, with issues like this. Certainly, just because Cabrera is hurt now, doesn't mean we should stop watching his progress or monitoring his status. For me, the rewards on Cabrera merit a teens position, even with a chance of never playing again, because "He is one to watch, and could make a big impact on a MLB team, but we just are not sure because of X."
Great response. What you said.
DeleteI would defientely go with Number 3.
ReplyDeleteI am no prospect guru, but the way I see a prospect is not who has the most talent or potential but who could become the best Major League Baseball player.. Sometimes they are the same, sometimes they aren't. ..In the case of a talented prospect, a serious injury and the POSSIBLTY that player may never recover definetley, in my eyes, reduces his chance of becoming the best MLer possible and lowers his ranking.....But you also can't discount the possibility that he comes back as strong as ever...JMWO..
SteveVA
I think I would lean more towards #2, simply because Gustavo isn't expected to play next year. In the case of your top 50, I'd maybe slide him in somewhere toward the back. But I wouldn't use a top 10, 15, or even 20 at this point, with all the uncertainty.
ReplyDeleteI think the great thing about a top 10 list is it is always changing. A top prospect like Gary Brown or Joe Panik starts in the top 10 because of the potential and then they prove it at the lower levels which keeps them within the top 10. Once they slip whether it is from injury, a down year, or whatever other reason, they get bumped down until they have earned the top 10 spot again. Keep it up to date constantly and let the prospects work their way back into the list when they deserve to be there not just because they have potential to be there. Stratton is one that I think is on the list simply because of where he was drafted and because of his pedigree but to me he hasn't shown that he deserves to be there still and I would like to see prospects taken off the list quicker when their performance doesn't coincide with their potential.
ReplyDeleteIt seems like the LF issue is still a big concern to not only myself but others as well and one thing I am starting to accept is that Sabes isn't going to do something on a large scale to solve the problem at this point and the more I think about it the more I think I am going to be ok with it. One thing that will be interesting to follow will be the success of all of these low level prospects as they rise through the system and how their trade value increases. If Sabes tried to trade a guy like Blackburn this offseason for example, he wouldn't be able to get the return he would be able to get say after he puts up another good year and advances up the system. Next offseason his trade value will be substantially more if he continues along the path everyone is predicting. Maybe Sabes realizes that by next offseason he is going to have a farm system filled with very attractive prospects that will net him a much more impactful bat in a year than they would have this offseason and it is worthwhile waiting for them to develop before making a move.
So maybe the best move is to sign a couple of guys like Corey Hart, Raj Davis, or Jason Bay for a year and take a flyer on them to see if they can contribute. If they don't work out there is always the trade deadline or next offseason to upgrade. I want so badly to not have to worry about certain players in our offense because I think there are so many to worry about as it is but this is the formula that has worked in the past and they should be able to make it work again. I am anxious to see who Sabes goes after for LF and that will be one of the storylines that keeps my interest going into next season.
A somewhat related question.
ReplyDeleteJust how serious was the injury and what is the prognosis of a full recovery at this point? Maybe we can incorporate that information into his ranking consideration.
I don't think we know enough details to be able to answer those questions. Was there nerve damage or just tendon damage? We haven't been told. He reportedly started moving his fingers and started therapy about the time of the news release but can he move his whole hand or just part of it? Again, we do not know.
DeleteAt this point I do not believe anyone but his doctors, therapist, him and some people in the Giants management know enough to be able to answer your questions.
giants not as deep at catcher anymore
ReplyDeletemonell traded to o's for cashe (good trade for johnny. he is from the east, so will be closer to home and might actually have a shot at the backup roll)
jackson williams signed with rox....kid is a great defensive catcher....may also have a good shot at backup in a place that doesnt need the backup to be an offensive threat
bacci
Posey, Sanchez, Quiroz, Susac. Monell and Williams would have been no better than 5'th on the depth chart. The Giants have plenty of depth at catcher.
DeleteWe got cash for Monell. That should help, a little.
DeleteWonder if we could have done the same with Williams.
I read we have tried, unsuccessfully, to trade Peguero.
Tommy Hanson was non tendered by the Halos today. That is they type of guy that I would take a flyer on. He was really good 2 years ago.
ReplyDeleteI would not give Tommy Hanson anything more than a minor league deal with a ST invite but if he'll sign for that, sure. He does have upside.
DeleteBTW, great trade by the Nationals in getting Fister for a prospect, utility infielder and a reliever....I'm thinking Sabean could have beaten this instead of the big gamble on Vogelsong..
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
I'm thinking Ronnie Ray could be on par with Edwin Escobar. Could be a notch above as well so maybe this is a good deal for Detroit
DeleteAgree but at least he didnt give Kazmir 22 million! Billy must have outsmarted himself on this one and gotten the buy low sell high strategy mixed up. One ok year after 4 forgettable ones gets is worth 22 million now? Maybe Grady Sizemore is his next target. I would have taken Colon another year for 8 million personally.
DeleteAll of these mediocre pitchers who are getting huge contracts is starting to bother me. I thought it was a fluke when Kyle Lohse got such a good deal last year and that was after a great season and holding out until spring training before signing. Now it seems like journeymen pitchers are all the rage! Then you have Detroit giving an early X-mas present to the Nats for a bag of hot garbage. If Fister were a FA he would be getting 4 years/50 million easy yet Detroit needs a few more 25th men for their roster?
I thought it was a steal when I first saw it. Now, I'm not so sure. I think everybody is looking at Lombardozzi but the two pitchers are good prospects. One is a lefty reliever with MLB experience that Detroit found out they needed the hard way after getting torched by David Ortiz. The other is a promising AA prospect.
DeleteI'd say it's the equivalent of the Giants giving up Hembree and Escobar.
$22 M for Kazmir? How many teams does that guy have to burn before GM's learn? I really thought Billy was smarter than that. Of course he will probably go out and win the Cy Young Award now!
DeleteDrB - True, but when you have the talent to go for it all and have the chance to get a pitcher like Fistier to add, you can't be afraid to give up prospects from a deep pitching prospect pool that both Washington and the Giants have..you want the Ring? Gotta give to get...I wish the gIants had given rather than the risky re-signing of Vogey...JMWO
DeleteSteveVA
I looked up Fister's stat line on Fangraphs. Yeah, the Nationals got themselves a very nice deal. Not sure what Dombrowski is thinking on this one.
DeleteI think the Coliseum can make many pitchers look good.
DeleteWhat are Kazmir's numbers there?
To answer your question DrB, I plan to split the difference. For me, that puts Gustavo Cabrera at #21 on my Top 30 list. Without the injury, he'd probably be around #12-14 for me.
DeleteYour mileage may vary.