We'll review the first pro season performances of the Giants 2015 draftees. Just for fun, we'll assign a letter grade to the performance. Keep in mind the letter grade is for the current performance only and does not necessarily predict the future nor does it grade their overall value as a prospect. Once again, it's just for fun.
Round 1 Pick #18 Phil Bickford, RHP. Rookie AZL: 0-1, 2.01, 22.1 IP, 6 BB, 32 K's, GO/AO= 1.29. Over his last 3 starts, Bickford struck out 18 batters against just 2 BB's in just 8.1 IP. These numbers at a higher level would merit a solid A, but the Giants were cautious with their prized first rounder. Grade B+.
Round 1 Pick #31(Compensatory) Chris Shaw, 1B. Short Season: .287/.360/.551, 12 HR. Can't ask for a better pro debut than this. Shaw led the NWL in HR's by 2 and in SLG% by almost .050. Already the arguably the premier power hitting prospect in the organization although Mac Willamson might have something to say about that. Grade A!
Round 2 Pick #61 Andrew Suarez, LHP. Rookie AZL: 0-0, 1.80, 5 IP, 1 BB, 6 K's. Short Season: 1-0, 1.40, 19.1 IP, 2 BB, 15 K's. High A: 1-0, 1.80, 15 IP, 2 BB, 16 K's. The High A numbers are for the regular season only. Suarez also pitched 9 innings in the Cal League postseason with 7 K's against 1 BB. For a pitcher to make high A in his pro debut and then dominate a hitter's league like the Cal League plus get postseason experience is quite the accomplishment. Grade A!
Round 3 Pick #95 Jalen Miller, SS. Rookie AZL: .218/.292/.259, 11 SB in 174 AB. Started off hot at the plate then cooled off. Got high marks for his fielding and athleticism. Grade C.
Round 4 Pick #126 Mac Marshall, LHP. Rookie AZL: 0-0, 2.57, 7 IP, 5 BB, 11 K's. Short Season: 0-0, 6.59, 13.2 IP, 10 BB, 18 K's. 29 K's in 20.2 IP show a high ceiling. The walks are something he will have to overcome to get there. Grade C.
Round 5 Pick #156 Ronnie Jebavy, OF. Short Season: .263/303/.419, 8 HR, 23 SB in 270 AB. Started slow out of the gate, but hit .281 in the second half of the short season. Very nice combo of power and speed. Gotta worry just a bit about how the BA plays at higher levels. Grade B.
Round 6 Pick #186 Steven Duggar, OF. Short Season: .293/.390/.367, 1 HR, 6 SB in 229 AB. Hit .333 over his final 10 games. Love the BA and OBP. What else does he give you? Grade B.
Round 7 Pick #216 Jose Vizcaino, Jr. 3B. Short Season: .288/.351/.457, 6 HR, 5 SB in 184 AB. Big college SS immediately moved to 3B. Had to fight for PT with Miguel Gomez. That's a problem going forward with Jonah Arenado in the 3B mix for the lower minors too. Otherwise nice numbers for a pro debut. Grade B.
Round 8 Pick #246 Cory Taylor, RHP. Short Season: 2-0, 2.45, 33 IP, 12 BB, 50 K's, GO/AO= 1.87. Dominant numbers out of the bullpen for Salem-Keizer for this jumbo sized RHP. Grade B+.
Round 9 Pick #276. David Graybill, RHP. Rookie AZL: 0-0, 18.00, 3 IP, 4 BB, 2 K's. Big RHP who did not pitch a lot in college or in his debut. His relatively high draft position tells me the Giants think they can develop him along the lines of Big Joe Biagini. Grade F*.(asterisk means he is a project with upside).
Round 10 Pick #306. Tyler Cyr, RHP. Rookie AZL: 0-1, 2.25, 4 IP, 1 BB, 7 K's. Low A: 2-1, 5.60, 17.2 P, 18 BB, 20 K's. A bit on the wild side after aggressive early promotion to Augusta. Grade C-.
Saturday, October 17, 2015
Thursday, October 15, 2015
Hot Stove Preview: Top Tier Starting Pitchers
It's no secret that the Giants will be shopping for starting pitching this offseason and all indications are they won't be looking in the bargain bin or scouring dumpsters. No, the Giants absolutely have to acquire at least 1 high end SP and could use 2. With almost $50 M coming off their 2015 payroll, and only one current obligation beyond 2017 and with a much stronger farm system than they are generally given credit for, they are in good position to compete for the top tier of free agents this offseason if they so choose. In my mind, there are definitely 2 FA pitchers who qualify at "top tier" and possibly 3. David Price and Zack Greinke(assuming he opts out of his contract with the Dodgers, which he almost certainly will) are definite top tier. I will add Johnny Cueto, although current injury concerns make him more of a 1.5 tier in my mind. Let's take a closer look at these 3 pitchers:
David Price: Price is rare big LHP at 6'6", 220 lbs. He is a hard thrower whose average FB velocity of 94 MPH in 2015 is actually an increase over his prior 2 seasons. He just turned 30 years old on August 28, so the first season of his new contract will be his age 30 season. Here are his career stats:
104-56, 3.09, 8.57 K/9, 2.32 BB/9.
He has pitched his entire career in the AL with most of it for Tampa Bay in the hitter-friendly AL East. He has a history of struggling in postseason starts which may be just a sample-size issue.
Zack Greinke: Greinke is in the 3'rd year of a 6 year contract with the Dodgers. He is owed $71 M over the next 3 seasons, but can opt out after this year. Seeing as how his last 3 seasons have been among the best in all of baseball, he can certainly get a much larger total package than the $71 M he is guaranteed if he does not opt out. Greinke will turn 32 years old in a few days so the first year of his possible new contract will be his age 32 season. Here are his career stats:
142-93, 3.35, 8.11 K/9, 2.18 BB/9.
His numbers over his last 3 seasons with the Dodgers are significantly better than he career averages with a 3 year run which is, again, one of the best in all of baseball over that span. His average FB velocity has remained stable at just under 92 MPH for the past 3 seasons after averaging 94 in his rookie year. He has limited postseason experience, but has performed well in a small sample. Although he won't be cheap, his extra 2 years of age might be expected to yield a contract that is 1-2 years shorter than David Price's and $40-60 M less in total cost. On the other hand, the Dodgers can still give him a Qualifying Offer if he opts out, so signing him would cost a first round draft pick whereas Price and Cueto would not.
Johnny Cueto: Cueto has pitched in an extremely hitter friendly park in Cincinnati for most of his career and still put up top tier numbers. He was traded to KC, a much more pitcher friendly ballpark at the deadline this year, but inexplicably had a string of subpar performances after missing some time earlier in the season with some vague injury concerns. He did have a strong performance yesterday and will have more looks as the Royals advanced in the AL playoffs. Here are his career stats:
96-70, 3.30, 7.42 K/9, 2.60 BB/9.
Prior to the hiccup after the trade to KC, Cueto had been a very steady performer putting up consistent numbers, again in a very hitter friendly ballpark. His average FB velocity has remained just above 92 MPH over the past 5 seasons. He does have a history of a couple of oblique strains and there was something funky with his arm before the trade. How he performs the remainder of the postseason could be a big factor in how teams assess his future risk. He is actually the youngest of the 3 top tier guys and 2016 will be his age 30 season. A team convinced he is fully healthy will place a big value on him.
Again, the Giants are in an excellent position to go after one of these top tier guys if that is what they want to do. The fact that they have not rushed to lock up Mike Leake tells me they may well be keeping their powder dry for a run at one of them. Price will be the priciest with Max Scherzer's contract being the benchmark. That contract was 7/$210 M, but is structured very oddly with no single season costing more than $15 M, but the Nationals paying him that much through 2028! If there is a pitcher who is likely to stay healthy for the duration of a contract like that, Price seems like the guy to me.
Zack Greinke will come a bit cheaper, at least in total cost, although the AAV may be as high as for Price or higher. Greinke's last 3 seasons have been as good as any in baseball. The downside of Greinke would be he would cost a draft pick, but a huge positive is the negative impact on the Dodgers if the Giants signed him away. Yeah, I think that's worth a late-mid round draft pick!
I see Cueto as being a fallback option if Price's price is just too ridiculous and if Greinke just signs an extension with the Dodgers. I have to say, the injury concerns on Cueto give me enough pause that I might prefer to go for a second tier guy like Leake who may be healthier.
David Price: Price is rare big LHP at 6'6", 220 lbs. He is a hard thrower whose average FB velocity of 94 MPH in 2015 is actually an increase over his prior 2 seasons. He just turned 30 years old on August 28, so the first season of his new contract will be his age 30 season. Here are his career stats:
104-56, 3.09, 8.57 K/9, 2.32 BB/9.
He has pitched his entire career in the AL with most of it for Tampa Bay in the hitter-friendly AL East. He has a history of struggling in postseason starts which may be just a sample-size issue.
Zack Greinke: Greinke is in the 3'rd year of a 6 year contract with the Dodgers. He is owed $71 M over the next 3 seasons, but can opt out after this year. Seeing as how his last 3 seasons have been among the best in all of baseball, he can certainly get a much larger total package than the $71 M he is guaranteed if he does not opt out. Greinke will turn 32 years old in a few days so the first year of his possible new contract will be his age 32 season. Here are his career stats:
142-93, 3.35, 8.11 K/9, 2.18 BB/9.
His numbers over his last 3 seasons with the Dodgers are significantly better than he career averages with a 3 year run which is, again, one of the best in all of baseball over that span. His average FB velocity has remained stable at just under 92 MPH for the past 3 seasons after averaging 94 in his rookie year. He has limited postseason experience, but has performed well in a small sample. Although he won't be cheap, his extra 2 years of age might be expected to yield a contract that is 1-2 years shorter than David Price's and $40-60 M less in total cost. On the other hand, the Dodgers can still give him a Qualifying Offer if he opts out, so signing him would cost a first round draft pick whereas Price and Cueto would not.
Johnny Cueto: Cueto has pitched in an extremely hitter friendly park in Cincinnati for most of his career and still put up top tier numbers. He was traded to KC, a much more pitcher friendly ballpark at the deadline this year, but inexplicably had a string of subpar performances after missing some time earlier in the season with some vague injury concerns. He did have a strong performance yesterday and will have more looks as the Royals advanced in the AL playoffs. Here are his career stats:
96-70, 3.30, 7.42 K/9, 2.60 BB/9.
Prior to the hiccup after the trade to KC, Cueto had been a very steady performer putting up consistent numbers, again in a very hitter friendly ballpark. His average FB velocity has remained just above 92 MPH over the past 5 seasons. He does have a history of a couple of oblique strains and there was something funky with his arm before the trade. How he performs the remainder of the postseason could be a big factor in how teams assess his future risk. He is actually the youngest of the 3 top tier guys and 2016 will be his age 30 season. A team convinced he is fully healthy will place a big value on him.
Again, the Giants are in an excellent position to go after one of these top tier guys if that is what they want to do. The fact that they have not rushed to lock up Mike Leake tells me they may well be keeping their powder dry for a run at one of them. Price will be the priciest with Max Scherzer's contract being the benchmark. That contract was 7/$210 M, but is structured very oddly with no single season costing more than $15 M, but the Nationals paying him that much through 2028! If there is a pitcher who is likely to stay healthy for the duration of a contract like that, Price seems like the guy to me.
Zack Greinke will come a bit cheaper, at least in total cost, although the AAV may be as high as for Price or higher. Greinke's last 3 seasons have been as good as any in baseball. The downside of Greinke would be he would cost a draft pick, but a huge positive is the negative impact on the Dodgers if the Giants signed him away. Yeah, I think that's worth a late-mid round draft pick!
I see Cueto as being a fallback option if Price's price is just too ridiculous and if Greinke just signs an extension with the Dodgers. I have to say, the injury concerns on Cueto give me enough pause that I might prefer to go for a second tier guy like Leake who may be healthier.
Wednesday, October 14, 2015
Down on the Farm: DrB's 2015 Giants Top 50 Prospects Review- Dominican Dandies
Kelvin Beltre, SS. Rookie AZL- .239/.375/.348 in 46 AB. The Giants obviously think highly of Beltre, but he needs to find a way to stay on the field to develop. Stock- Stable.
Manuel Geraldo, MI. DSL- .328/.383/.432, 3 HR, 18 SB in 274 AB. I was surprised that Geraldo repeated the DSL. He put up great numbers the second time around. His name is on the list of Arizona Instructional League invitees which is generally a good sign that he'll be playing stateside next year. Stock- Up.
Mecky Coronado, C/DH/OF. DSL- .340/.398/.440, 2 HR in 191 AB. From the numbers and positions he's played, Coronado profiles as a pure hitter who may struggle to find a defensive position. He's listed on the instructional league roster, so should be playing in the states next season. Stock- Up.
Robinson Medrano, 1B/OF. DSL- .294/.372/.434, 5 HR, 7 SB in 235 AB. Nice numbers but he played 1B almost exclusively which is going in the wrong direction defensively. I did not find his name on the instructional league list, which is ominous for him. Stock- Stable, but at risk of losing prospect status if he does not come stateside.
Deiyerbert Bolivar, LHP. Rookie AZL- 2-1, 2.08, 30.1 IP, 14 BB, 30 K's, GO/AO= 1.38. Successful stateside debut. Stock- Up.
Prebito Reyes, LHP. DSL- 5-3, 3.22, 72.2 IP, 21 BB, 57 K's, GO/AO= 1.21. Good season but not on the instructional league roster which is a bad sign as this was his second DSL season.
Victor Concepcion, RHP. DSL- 6-0, 0.42, 43 IP, 7 BB, 45 K's. Tremendous second DSL season. I can't think of any reason except injury to not bring him to the states, but he is not listed on the instructional league roster. Stock- Up?
Jose Morel, RHP. Rookie AZL- 5-1, 1.91, 33 IP, 11 BB, 28 K's, GO/AO= 1.75, 3 Saves. Finally made it to the states and continued to put up strong numbers. Stock- Up.
Pitchers Sandro Cabrera and Melvin Adon were on the instructional league roster posted in BA. Missing names included Concepcion, Sandro Fabian, Francisco Medina, Beicker Mendoza and Hengerber Medina.
Manuel Geraldo, MI. DSL- .328/.383/.432, 3 HR, 18 SB in 274 AB. I was surprised that Geraldo repeated the DSL. He put up great numbers the second time around. His name is on the list of Arizona Instructional League invitees which is generally a good sign that he'll be playing stateside next year. Stock- Up.
Mecky Coronado, C/DH/OF. DSL- .340/.398/.440, 2 HR in 191 AB. From the numbers and positions he's played, Coronado profiles as a pure hitter who may struggle to find a defensive position. He's listed on the instructional league roster, so should be playing in the states next season. Stock- Up.
Robinson Medrano, 1B/OF. DSL- .294/.372/.434, 5 HR, 7 SB in 235 AB. Nice numbers but he played 1B almost exclusively which is going in the wrong direction defensively. I did not find his name on the instructional league list, which is ominous for him. Stock- Stable, but at risk of losing prospect status if he does not come stateside.
Deiyerbert Bolivar, LHP. Rookie AZL- 2-1, 2.08, 30.1 IP, 14 BB, 30 K's, GO/AO= 1.38. Successful stateside debut. Stock- Up.
Prebito Reyes, LHP. DSL- 5-3, 3.22, 72.2 IP, 21 BB, 57 K's, GO/AO= 1.21. Good season but not on the instructional league roster which is a bad sign as this was his second DSL season.
Victor Concepcion, RHP. DSL- 6-0, 0.42, 43 IP, 7 BB, 45 K's. Tremendous second DSL season. I can't think of any reason except injury to not bring him to the states, but he is not listed on the instructional league roster. Stock- Up?
Jose Morel, RHP. Rookie AZL- 5-1, 1.91, 33 IP, 11 BB, 28 K's, GO/AO= 1.75, 3 Saves. Finally made it to the states and continued to put up strong numbers. Stock- Up.
Pitchers Sandro Cabrera and Melvin Adon were on the instructional league roster posted in BA. Missing names included Concepcion, Sandro Fabian, Francisco Medina, Beicker Mendoza and Hengerber Medina.
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
Down on the Farm: DrB's 2015 Giants Top 50 Prospects Review- Honorable Mention Part 6
Greg Brody, RHP. DNP. Injury? Stock- Down.
Mason McVay, LHP. High A: 2-2, 4.79, 20.2 IP, 7 BB, 21 K. Voluntarily retired after pitching on 5/22/2015.
Travious Relaford, IF. Low A: .237/.313/.292 in 312 AB. Relaford has kicked around the low minors for several years now. Things were looking up when he hit .293 for S-K in 2014, but he struggled in Augusta. Stock- Down.
Hunter Cole, OF. Low A: .275/.370/.425 in 40 AB. High A: .313/.373/.493, 6 HR in 217 AB. AA: .292/.338/.464, 3 HR in 192 AB. 26'th round draft pick in 2014. Hit just .239 in his pro debut at S-K. This was a breakout season which he carried through 3 levels. Stock- Up, Way Up!
We'll do the Dominican Dandies next followed by a review of the 2015 draftees.
Mason McVay, LHP. High A: 2-2, 4.79, 20.2 IP, 7 BB, 21 K. Voluntarily retired after pitching on 5/22/2015.
Travious Relaford, IF. Low A: .237/.313/.292 in 312 AB. Relaford has kicked around the low minors for several years now. Things were looking up when he hit .293 for S-K in 2014, but he struggled in Augusta. Stock- Down.
Hunter Cole, OF. Low A: .275/.370/.425 in 40 AB. High A: .313/.373/.493, 6 HR in 217 AB. AA: .292/.338/.464, 3 HR in 192 AB. 26'th round draft pick in 2014. Hit just .239 in his pro debut at S-K. This was a breakout season which he carried through 3 levels. Stock- Up, Way Up!
We'll do the Dominican Dandies next followed by a review of the 2015 draftees.
Monday, October 12, 2015
Down on the Farm: DrB's 2015 Giants Top 50 Prospects Review Honorable Mention Part 5
Again, this is a REVIEW of the 2015 list. There will be a new 2016 list after the Winter Meetings:
Ethan Miller, RHP. DNP. Listed as Voluntarily Retired.
Eury Sanchez, RHP. Rookie AZL: 2-1, 1.04, 8.2 IP, 2 BB, 13 K's. Low A: 1-2, 3.20, 19.2 IP, 9 BB, 23 K's.
Seemed to miss some time, perhaps due to injury? Pitched well in a SSS. Stock- Stable.
Hector Mercedes, SS/IF. DNP. Still listed as being in the organization. Stock- Down.
Chase Compton, 1B. Low A: .212/.287/.282 in 85 AB. Short Season: .308/.400/.500 in 52 AB.
Terrible numbers in Augusta. Rebounded in a SSS in S-K. Stock- Down.
Richard Amion, 2B. Short Season: .229/.318/.299, 7 SB in 201 AB.
Not good numbers for a hitter's league. Stock- Down.
Luis Lacen, OF. DNP. Very athletic looking, but young and raw when drafted. Not sure why he DNP in 2015. Stock- Down.
Kevin Rivera, 2B. Rookie AZL: .292/.330/.393 in 89 AB.
Needs to move up to a higher level to get some traction on his career. Stock- Stable.
Rayan Hernandez, RHP. Short Season: 2-0, 6.46, 23.2 IP, 11 BB, 17 K's.
Finally moved up from rookie ball, but the results were not particularly encouraging. Stock- Stable.
Rodolfo Martinez, RHP. Low A: 1-2, 2.54, 46 IP, 14 BB, 44 K's, GO/AO= 1.38.
Hard throwing righty couldn't hit the broadside of a barn in 2014, but turned that around in Augusta getting stronger as the season progressed. Stock- Up, Way Up!
Kendry Melo, RHP. Rookie AZL: 2-0, 4.15, 30.1 IP, 15 BB, 43 K's.
21 year old repeating rookie ball is generally not a good thing, but improved on a K/BB of 19/21 from 2014. Promising international prospect who did not sigh until he was 20 yo, so could be just a late bloomer. If he has a good season in Augusta at age 22, he will be on track age wise. Stock- Up.
Ethan Miller, RHP. DNP. Listed as Voluntarily Retired.
Eury Sanchez, RHP. Rookie AZL: 2-1, 1.04, 8.2 IP, 2 BB, 13 K's. Low A: 1-2, 3.20, 19.2 IP, 9 BB, 23 K's.
Seemed to miss some time, perhaps due to injury? Pitched well in a SSS. Stock- Stable.
Hector Mercedes, SS/IF. DNP. Still listed as being in the organization. Stock- Down.
Chase Compton, 1B. Low A: .212/.287/.282 in 85 AB. Short Season: .308/.400/.500 in 52 AB.
Terrible numbers in Augusta. Rebounded in a SSS in S-K. Stock- Down.
Richard Amion, 2B. Short Season: .229/.318/.299, 7 SB in 201 AB.
Not good numbers for a hitter's league. Stock- Down.
Luis Lacen, OF. DNP. Very athletic looking, but young and raw when drafted. Not sure why he DNP in 2015. Stock- Down.
Kevin Rivera, 2B. Rookie AZL: .292/.330/.393 in 89 AB.
Needs to move up to a higher level to get some traction on his career. Stock- Stable.
Rayan Hernandez, RHP. Short Season: 2-0, 6.46, 23.2 IP, 11 BB, 17 K's.
Finally moved up from rookie ball, but the results were not particularly encouraging. Stock- Stable.
Rodolfo Martinez, RHP. Low A: 1-2, 2.54, 46 IP, 14 BB, 44 K's, GO/AO= 1.38.
Hard throwing righty couldn't hit the broadside of a barn in 2014, but turned that around in Augusta getting stronger as the season progressed. Stock- Up, Way Up!
Kendry Melo, RHP. Rookie AZL: 2-0, 4.15, 30.1 IP, 15 BB, 43 K's.
21 year old repeating rookie ball is generally not a good thing, but improved on a K/BB of 19/21 from 2014. Promising international prospect who did not sigh until he was 20 yo, so could be just a late bloomer. If he has a good season in Augusta at age 22, he will be on track age wise. Stock- Up.
Sunday, October 11, 2015
Thoughts on Bad Calls and Bad Managing
The bottom of the 7'th inning of last night's NLDS game between the Mets and Dodgers was a comedy of errors by Mets manager Terry Collins and the Replay Umpires, whoever they are. The inning started with the Mets leading 2-1. Mets starter Noah Syndergaard who had been brilliant, but also pitched out of a jam or two, was nudging his pitch count above 100. He started the inning by striking out Yasmani Grandal, but then walked Enrique Hernandez. The TV camera panned to the Mets bullpen where Collins had two RHP's, Bartolo Colon and Addison Reed, warming up. I figured the Mets must not have any LHP's in their bullpen, otherwise, why would you have two righties warming up? When Chase Utley was announced as a PH, 3 of the next 4 Dodgers hitters would be left-handed.
Syndergaard had been excruciatingly slow to home plate with runners on and the one thing Collins did not want was a successful SB by Hernandez who is not exactly a speed merchant. He could have brought in Colon at that point, who is almost certainly quicker to home plate than Syndergaard. Syndergaard stayed in and Hernandez stole 2B. Utley followed with a single over the outstretched glove of 2B, Daniel Murphy putting runners at first and 3'rd with 1 out. Collins now brought in Colon to face Howie Kendrick and all hell broke loose.
Kendrick hit a bouncer up the middle that was fielded by Murphy. He fed the ball to SS Ruben Tejada who tried to make a spectacular DP, but was upended by a Utley who came in late and high and clearly was not aiming for the bag. There was a violent collision between the jumping, twisting Tejada's legs and Utley's head. The Ump called Utley out, the run scored and Tejada lay face down on the ground in obvious severe pain. Tejada was eventually carted off the field with an inflatable immobilizer on his right leg and was eventually diagnosed with a fractured fibula. Utley was apparently no worse for the wear. Then, the Mets appealed the out call at 2B.
The Replay clearly showed that Tejada missed the bag by maybe 1 inch at the most. Utley, who had never touched 2B during the play and then run off the field, was called safe and allowed to go back to 2B. The explanation from MLB was that the "vicinity" rule was not in effect because the feed from Murphy was offline. Utley could be ruled safe despite not touching 2B because the ump had erroneously called him out on the play. So, we ended up with a situation where 1. Utley clearly made no attempt to touch 2B while taking out the SS who was the relay man on the DP attempt. 2. A "vicinity" rule that was not allowed despite the relay man clearly attempting to complete a DP. 3. A runner called safe despite having never touched the base or even trying to touch the base. 4. A SS with a broken leg and Chase Utley standing at 2B with just 1 out instead of 2.
I suppose there are reasonable arguments to be made on both sides, but I am personally much more comfortable with the call the ump made on the field than what was eventually ruled by the Replay Umpires. Replayed calls are supposed to be overturned only if there is clear evidence of a wrong call. Yes, Tejada's foot was clearly off the bag, but Utley still could have been reasonably called out for his clear takeout intent, for the "vicinity" rule and, well, because he never touched the base! I like Instant Replay up to a point, but I have to say I am increasingly uncomfortable with calls being overturned when to my eye, the video is inconclusive. Instant Replay has progressed from making calls more correct to fairly drastically changing the way the game is played. I think that is something MLB is going to have to look at this offseason. Oh, and this play also confirms that the Dodgers are an evil, despicable organization well deserving of the fear, loathing and hatred we all give them! I mean, any organization that can make a New York team seem like the Good Guys is a truly evil organization!
Now, back to Terry Collins. He took Bartolo Colon out of the game and replaced him with Addison Reed, a pitcher us Giants fans came to know and love as a gas can for the Arizona D'Backs. Reed somehow managed to get the left-handed batting Corey Seager out on a soft flyball to LF, but you just knew he would not fare so well against Adrian Gonzalez. Sure enough, AGone doubled down the RF line to drive in the go-ahead run plus an insurance run. Justin Turner followed with an RBI double and the game was essentially over. Collins took Reed out of the game and brought in……..Jonathan Niese? You mean to tell me Collins had a pretty good LHP in his bullpen all this time when 3 of the previous 4 batters were left-handed? What in the name of Bruce Bochy is going on here? I mean, there is a darn good reason why the Giants have insisted on keeping at least 2 LHP's in their bullpen and paid a premium price to do it all these years! It was just horrible bullpen management by Terry Collins who somehow managed to make Don Mattingly look like a managing genius by comparison!
Syndergaard had been excruciatingly slow to home plate with runners on and the one thing Collins did not want was a successful SB by Hernandez who is not exactly a speed merchant. He could have brought in Colon at that point, who is almost certainly quicker to home plate than Syndergaard. Syndergaard stayed in and Hernandez stole 2B. Utley followed with a single over the outstretched glove of 2B, Daniel Murphy putting runners at first and 3'rd with 1 out. Collins now brought in Colon to face Howie Kendrick and all hell broke loose.
Kendrick hit a bouncer up the middle that was fielded by Murphy. He fed the ball to SS Ruben Tejada who tried to make a spectacular DP, but was upended by a Utley who came in late and high and clearly was not aiming for the bag. There was a violent collision between the jumping, twisting Tejada's legs and Utley's head. The Ump called Utley out, the run scored and Tejada lay face down on the ground in obvious severe pain. Tejada was eventually carted off the field with an inflatable immobilizer on his right leg and was eventually diagnosed with a fractured fibula. Utley was apparently no worse for the wear. Then, the Mets appealed the out call at 2B.
The Replay clearly showed that Tejada missed the bag by maybe 1 inch at the most. Utley, who had never touched 2B during the play and then run off the field, was called safe and allowed to go back to 2B. The explanation from MLB was that the "vicinity" rule was not in effect because the feed from Murphy was offline. Utley could be ruled safe despite not touching 2B because the ump had erroneously called him out on the play. So, we ended up with a situation where 1. Utley clearly made no attempt to touch 2B while taking out the SS who was the relay man on the DP attempt. 2. A "vicinity" rule that was not allowed despite the relay man clearly attempting to complete a DP. 3. A runner called safe despite having never touched the base or even trying to touch the base. 4. A SS with a broken leg and Chase Utley standing at 2B with just 1 out instead of 2.
I suppose there are reasonable arguments to be made on both sides, but I am personally much more comfortable with the call the ump made on the field than what was eventually ruled by the Replay Umpires. Replayed calls are supposed to be overturned only if there is clear evidence of a wrong call. Yes, Tejada's foot was clearly off the bag, but Utley still could have been reasonably called out for his clear takeout intent, for the "vicinity" rule and, well, because he never touched the base! I like Instant Replay up to a point, but I have to say I am increasingly uncomfortable with calls being overturned when to my eye, the video is inconclusive. Instant Replay has progressed from making calls more correct to fairly drastically changing the way the game is played. I think that is something MLB is going to have to look at this offseason. Oh, and this play also confirms that the Dodgers are an evil, despicable organization well deserving of the fear, loathing and hatred we all give them! I mean, any organization that can make a New York team seem like the Good Guys is a truly evil organization!
Now, back to Terry Collins. He took Bartolo Colon out of the game and replaced him with Addison Reed, a pitcher us Giants fans came to know and love as a gas can for the Arizona D'Backs. Reed somehow managed to get the left-handed batting Corey Seager out on a soft flyball to LF, but you just knew he would not fare so well against Adrian Gonzalez. Sure enough, AGone doubled down the RF line to drive in the go-ahead run plus an insurance run. Justin Turner followed with an RBI double and the game was essentially over. Collins took Reed out of the game and brought in……..Jonathan Niese? You mean to tell me Collins had a pretty good LHP in his bullpen all this time when 3 of the previous 4 batters were left-handed? What in the name of Bruce Bochy is going on here? I mean, there is a darn good reason why the Giants have insisted on keeping at least 2 LHP's in their bullpen and paid a premium price to do it all these years! It was just horrible bullpen management by Terry Collins who somehow managed to make Don Mattingly look like a managing genius by comparison!
Saturday, October 10, 2015
Thoughts on Clayton Kershaw and Don Mattingly
Clayton Kershaw's postseason struggles continued last night as he lost to the Mets and Jake deGrom to remain winless in postseason competition. Once again, those struggles were tied to questions about the timing of Dodger Manager Don Mattingly taking him out of the game. Last year against the St. Louis Cardinals, the consensus seemed to be that Mattingly left him him too long, most likely because the Dodgers' bullpen was not trustworthy. Last night, most of the criticism seemed to be that he took Kershaw out too soon, that he should have left him in to face David Wright.
The situation was that Kershaw had pitched brilliantly all night except for a solo HR to Daniel Murphy. That the score was still 1-0 is a tribute to both pitchers because it was a hot, dry evening in SoCal and balls were carrying like crazy, much to the befuddlement of Michael Cuddyer in particular. The Mets had been fouling off quite a few pitches all night, many of them coming on an umpteen pitch AB by David Wright in the first inning. As the 8'th inning wore on and Kershaw's pitch count climbed above the century mark, you could see him tiring before your eyes. He started dropping his elbow and failing to finish off breaking pitches. After a couple of pitches with nothing on them, to the last batter, I wondered if Kershaw had enough energy to even walk back up to the top of the mound. He did summon some reserve on the last pitch to Granderson which was just outside but otherwise a really good pitch. Kershaw pounded his glove and grimaced, knowing that was the pitch he really, really needed. David Wright had not done much against Kershaw all night, but he did have that long AB in the first inning. With Kershaw clearly running out of gas, having walked 3 batters already in the inning and with Wright coming to the plate, Mattingly took him out for Pedro Baez. Baez looked like he had good stuff, but Wright kept the AB alive and eventually singled up the middle to drive in 2 insurance runs which proved to be the difference in the game.
Afterwards, Mattingly said the reason he took Kershaw out was because of the pitch count, which stood at 112 pitches and because this would be Wright's 4'th PA against him. To his credit, Mattingly avoided saying anything that could be construed as a criticism of Kershaw, such as saying he was out of gas or had lost control of the strike zone. In the TBS panel discussion on the postgame show, both Dusty Baker and Gary Sheffield criticized the reasoning, saying Wright had not had good swings against Kershaw all night and it would not have been different in a 4'th PA. They did not mention the long AB in the first inning. I have a hard time understanding Pedro Martinez, but it sounded to me like Pedro thought Kershaw was showing signs of being out of gas and if anything, Mattingly left him in too long. Pedro put the blame on pitching coach Rick Honeycutt for being too focused on pitch counts and not looking at the pitcher's mechanics on the mound.
My opinion, for what it's worth, is that 1. Kershaw appeared to be out of gas. 2. He had lost control of the strike zone. 3. He had thrown 112 pitches on a hot night. 4. Even if David Wright was not likely to get a good swing at that point, which I think is a dubious assumption by Baker and Sheff, he was likely to grind out another AB with a high probability of running Kershaw's pitch count about 120 and still drawing a walk. Mattingly made the right move. Once again, his bullpen was not up to the task. If you are going to blame anyone, blame the GM for once again not building a better bullpen. And once again, let's marvel at just how great the Giants "Core Four" bullpen has been over the past 5 seasons.
The situation was that Kershaw had pitched brilliantly all night except for a solo HR to Daniel Murphy. That the score was still 1-0 is a tribute to both pitchers because it was a hot, dry evening in SoCal and balls were carrying like crazy, much to the befuddlement of Michael Cuddyer in particular. The Mets had been fouling off quite a few pitches all night, many of them coming on an umpteen pitch AB by David Wright in the first inning. As the 8'th inning wore on and Kershaw's pitch count climbed above the century mark, you could see him tiring before your eyes. He started dropping his elbow and failing to finish off breaking pitches. After a couple of pitches with nothing on them, to the last batter, I wondered if Kershaw had enough energy to even walk back up to the top of the mound. He did summon some reserve on the last pitch to Granderson which was just outside but otherwise a really good pitch. Kershaw pounded his glove and grimaced, knowing that was the pitch he really, really needed. David Wright had not done much against Kershaw all night, but he did have that long AB in the first inning. With Kershaw clearly running out of gas, having walked 3 batters already in the inning and with Wright coming to the plate, Mattingly took him out for Pedro Baez. Baez looked like he had good stuff, but Wright kept the AB alive and eventually singled up the middle to drive in 2 insurance runs which proved to be the difference in the game.
Afterwards, Mattingly said the reason he took Kershaw out was because of the pitch count, which stood at 112 pitches and because this would be Wright's 4'th PA against him. To his credit, Mattingly avoided saying anything that could be construed as a criticism of Kershaw, such as saying he was out of gas or had lost control of the strike zone. In the TBS panel discussion on the postgame show, both Dusty Baker and Gary Sheffield criticized the reasoning, saying Wright had not had good swings against Kershaw all night and it would not have been different in a 4'th PA. They did not mention the long AB in the first inning. I have a hard time understanding Pedro Martinez, but it sounded to me like Pedro thought Kershaw was showing signs of being out of gas and if anything, Mattingly left him in too long. Pedro put the blame on pitching coach Rick Honeycutt for being too focused on pitch counts and not looking at the pitcher's mechanics on the mound.
My opinion, for what it's worth, is that 1. Kershaw appeared to be out of gas. 2. He had lost control of the strike zone. 3. He had thrown 112 pitches on a hot night. 4. Even if David Wright was not likely to get a good swing at that point, which I think is a dubious assumption by Baker and Sheff, he was likely to grind out another AB with a high probability of running Kershaw's pitch count about 120 and still drawing a walk. Mattingly made the right move. Once again, his bullpen was not up to the task. If you are going to blame anyone, blame the GM for once again not building a better bullpen. And once again, let's marvel at just how great the Giants "Core Four" bullpen has been over the past 5 seasons.
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