Several sources report that Blake Snell LHP agreed to terms with the Evil Empire for 5 years/$182 M. Reports say $60 M is deferred reducing the AAV for "Luxury Tax" purposes from $36.4 M to around $32-33 M. The deal includes a signing bonus of $52 M, no opt-outs, a partial no-trade clause and a $5 M "assignment bonus" in the event of a trade.
This news likely comes as a blow to a large segment of the Giants fanbase but it may be a blessing in disguise in the long run. Snell is for sure one of the best pitchers in baseball when he is healthy and has his pitches going. On the other hand, that is a whole lot of money to commit to a guy who is not getting any younger and and has only had 2 seasons with an fWAR 4.0 or above. bWAR is even more brutal. While fWAR credits him with 2 other seasons >3.0, bWAR shows two seasons of 7+ WAR but no others greater than 2.2. The rap on Snell is he has trouble putting a whole season together, a notion he did not dispel last season, and he has trouble getting past the 5'th inning in his starts, also not dispelled last season.
Of course, since it's the Dodgers watch him win 5 consecutive Cy Young Awards. On the other hand, the Dodgers have a horrendous recent record with injured pitchers. Perhaps the last thing their roster needs is another injury-prone pitcher? Maybe they figure if they stockpile enough, five will be healthy at any given time?
Blake Snell would have checked off a lot of boxes for the Giants but perhaps spending less $$ on a couple of pitchers who will keep them in games and get to the 6'th and 7'th innings more often will check off more?
What concerns me about this isn’t the pitcher or even where he has gone, it is how pointless the draft system and luxury tax fines appear to be.
ReplyDeleteSurely something more impactful such as a win deduction or percentage win deduction would be more impactful and stop certain franchises literally spending whatever they want.
Maybe this is a naivety or lack of understanding from a UK reader but how the Dodgers can continue to play a system and spend the money they do beggars belief. This isn’t a fair playing field.
At this point the "Competitive Balance Tax" is a ridiculous misnomer. The Dodgers, with a lot of help from Shohei Ohtani, figured out a giant loophole in the form of deferred payments. It's way past time for the commissioner to step in and make a ruling that in the best interest of the game, deferred payments cannot exceed a certain percentage of the total package and start voiding contracts that clearly evade the CBT.
DeleteYou are correct- it isn't a fair playing field. But thanks to local broadcast revenue that isn't shared amongst all teams, the big market teams can spend like this and still make a ton of money......
DeleteI look at football (soccer) here and yes you have teams with far more spending power and who attempt to find loopholes.
DeleteHowever, some teams have had 6-10 point deductions for financial irregularities. Surely the same should happen?
Anyway, I’m just jealous because the Giants can’t spend this way and I really want it to be 2009 again to relive!
I didn’t want Snell back because I knew he would cost too much and doesn’t pitch enough to be worth it. He wasn’t going to be the difference maker and maybe there isn’t one or two or three guys that will make a difference. Problem is they need to get a star or two and if they sit on their hands while the dodgers spend like the world is going to end then fans will turn on Posey immediately.
ReplyDeleteThere will be no grace period or understanding and it will send a clear message that ownership is the problem and has been all along. If nothing has changed after firing Farhan how can you expect anyone to believe Posey is going to be any different? Optics are more important than reality here and they need to do something quick to show the fans that this isn’t just a business for the Johnsons like it is for Fisher.
They own the NorCal market now and 10th in the league in spending isn’t good enough. Next years free agent class is nowhere near as deep as this year so it should be clear that if they don’t spend now then might as well do a full rebuild and try to compete in 2027-2028.
I didn't think the Giants had a a chance for Snell or any legitimate player this off season..but it still bothers me... I really envy Dodger fans..having a team and organization striving for greatness and finding creative ways to do it while the Giants have Big Market owners and perhaps an in over his head POBO striving for mediocrity by seemingly going back in time to a formula focused on hard workers, grinders, lost causes, support players and hoping to catch chemistry lightening in a bottle....That just does not work anymore..Unless you have 4-5 studs in the pitching rotation and all the Giants have right now are one overworked ace and a bunch of question marks..I hope i see evidence to the contrary form buster and the new GM soon..for both the staff 9as Doc pointed out) and position players where there are so many holes
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
The Giants do have a long list of young pitchers who could take the next step and be really good or they might not. Does Buster put his faith in them or hedge his bets with a veteran SP or two? And if he does bring in a veteran pitcher, does it need to be an ace level pitcher to take some of the heat off Webb or go with a couple of less expensive options who will eat up a lot of innings and give the bullpen a breather?
DeleteTwo articles on the Athletic today perfectly sum up the pathetic state of the Giants- thanks to their ownership. "Snell signs with the Dodgers" and "Giants exicted to get Madison Baumgarner back".........Until Until Johnson and Company sell the team to a group that actually wants to win, and is willing to put their $ where their mouth is, The G's will continue to be an after thought in the backwaters of MLB...
ReplyDeleteI saw the headline about MadBum and just went "oh no!"
DeleteRemember when Tony La Russo hired Dave Stewart...
DeleteI give Buster the benefit of the doubt till Christmas!
ReplyDeleteRichard in Winnipeg
I don't have a lot of faith in Buster's abilities as a GM at the moment. He's going to have to show me. But, let's let the man settle in for a bit. The Giants have monumental problems, and even signing a superstar like Soto (NEVER going to happen) will not solve them. This is going to take some time.
DeleteAgree. I'm not even holding Buster to a postseason appearance in 2025. I just want to see some tangible signs the team is headed in a better direction. A lot of that will involve sorting out the cluster****. of "intriguing" prospects and recent prospects FZ rushed up. There were so many in such a short period of time they kind of accordioned on each other.
DeleteAnd if he has not filled our stockings by Christmas > we should call him names > say things like > you were as catcher nothing compared to Randy Hundley > you made Melky Cabrera cry > your mother wears army boots > I could beat up your old man .
ReplyDeleteThen spend the next few years castigating him until he is fired.
Nobody is going to change the course of this team in their first 90 days.
I'm all in to see what spring training roster looks like.
That said Happy Thanksgiving from Canada we had our turkey dinner in October.
Thanks Doc for your terrific imput and commitment to this great blog
Richard in Winnipeg.
The Giants may be stuck between a rock and a hard place. Perhaps the best path would have been a complete rebuild in the past couple of years. So maybe if this season does not start well, then to a tear-down rebuild should occur. However, I don't see that happening with ownership not wanting to completely disappoint the fan base.
ReplyDeleteMy sense is the fanbase has become apathetic which may be a worse situation from the Giants perspective than if they were angry.
DeleteThere are 15 teams that draw from a larger metropolitan area than the Giants, which, until 2025 they had to share with the A's.
ReplyDeleteTheir spending has been better than the middle of the pack, usually close to 10th rather than 16th.
Because of the 0 attendance just 4 seasons ago and the slow rebuilding of fan draw - which has depended on a lot of discounts - the Owners have not been stashing cash.
The Johnsons own about a quarter of the team, so if they wanted to spend more, they can't do it unilaterally. You can depend that they will not be spending like LA, the 2 NY teams, and several others.
If they are not going to spend a lot more, to be compete they must spend smarter than they have.
And, perhaps that's Posey's charter: get more for the buck.
Brewers '24 payroll was $100 mil.
DeleteYellich got $22 mil - 73g 315 PA.
Team record - 93-69
Spend smarter is exactly right!
I contend that a good management team should be able to field a consistent postseason team within the constraints of the CBT.
DeleteHappy Thanksgiving. In 2023 mets won 75 games. They hire David Stearns from the Brewers to run their baseball operations. In 2024 they won 89 games and finished as a wild card team. A high payroll team like the Mets need a good GM also like Stearns to put together a contending team.
DeleteIt’s absurd that the Dodgers can be a mile above the tax level, but also the favorites to sign Roki Sasaki as an IFA. The penalties need to be much more severe. They should have zero in their signing bonus pool, and no picks left for the upcoming amateur draft.
ReplyDeleteMLBTR normally does an excellent job of predicting Free Agent salaries, possibly because they seem to be fair and they are used as guide for teams and agents (and, of course, the players).
ReplyDeleteIn their write-up on Snell they disclose:
"The money is significantly higher than we projected, and the No. 5 free agent is off The Athletic’s Big Board. For the Dodgers, it’s a great solution for their biggest issue last season: starting pitching depth. Not that it mattered in the end."
Also, it is reported that Teoscar Hernández wants to resign with the Dodgers, but the Dodgers are holding him off to see if they can buy Juan Soto and won't need the All-Star, Silver Slugger, and MVP candidate.
Were the 2003 Florida Marlins and the 2015 Kansas City Royals the last low-budget teams that won the World Series?
The playoff structure gives low budget teams a chance, but they have to be pretty lucky to run the table.
A glimpse of the mountain to climb:
ReplyDeleteRosterResource — 2025 Estimated Luxury Tax Payroll
SF $182,277,143
LA $303,967,884
OTOH, the Giants haven't started spending yet...
You wonder how, already being over the highest threshold, the Dodgers are thinking Juan Soto, or, their consolation prize, Teoscar Hernández, and who knows what else.
The $121,690,741 difference is more than what ⅓ of the major league teams spend.
Dogs sign Edman to new 5-year, $74 million contract extension, 2025 Estimated Luxury Tax Payroll now: $308,190,189
DeleteOh yeah, some of it is deferred to reduce the impact...