2022:
Austin Slater 106 G. .264/.366/.408, 7 HR, 12 SB, 325 PA, -6.2 UZR, -15.4 UZR/150, 2.1 fWAR.
Mike Yastrzemski 93 G. .214/.305/.392, 17 HR, 5 SB, 558 PA, 3.7 UZR, 8.4 UZR/150, 2.2 fWAR.
Lewis Brinson 15 G.
Mauricio Dubon 14 G
Steven Duggar 12 G
Bryce Johnson 7 G
Luis Gonzalez 6 G
Stuart Fairchild 5 G
Thairo Estrada, Lamonte Wade Jr. 1 G
2023:
Mike Yastzremski
Austin Slater
Outcome: Slight upgrade due to YtY taking over at least strong side platoon role( but Mitch Hanigar has to stay healthy and take most games in RF).
Comment: The dilemma here is YtY has awful splits against LHP's over the past two seasons while Slater had very poor defensive metrics in CF with bad eye test to back that up. Slater's CF metrics in previous seasons were much better so perhaps he can hold down the short side of the platoon? While neither YtY's or Slater's bats really play in the corners, they are both more than adequate for CF. If they can both play league average D they should put up a combined fWAR in the 4-5 range.
Haniger and Conforto have both logged innings in CF in the past, neither had good defensive metrics, but I am sure we will occasionally see them sliding over but their main contributions should be to free up YtY and Slater to form a 2-man CF platoon. If any of the starting OF's go down with injury, we are staring into the abyss. Maybe Heliot Ramos gets it together this year? Maybe Luis Matos finds some helium? Vaun Brown? Grant McCray?
Last season, per the above, Slater's UZR/150 was almost twice as negative as YtY's positive UZR/150. So, if the latter plays nearly two times as many games as the former this year, their combined UZR/150 will be nearly neutral (almost zero).
ReplyDeletePerhaps Slater just had a down year defensively in CF, and will revert (regarding his much better metrics in previous seasons). Or maybe his playing time needs to be limited to minimize exposure (Did he play more games in CF than ever in 2021?). Another possibility - it's not about the number of games played, but that his CF D is in the beginning phase of decline.
Again, it shows how much it helps to have your own young stars. In this case, a CF starter who can hit left-handers and right-handers, and can play good D.
My hopeful money is on Ramos. Give him a long look in spring training. If he performs, then go with him. If he continues to perform, bonus! If not, then go with the Slater/Yaz combo that leaves a bad taste in our collective mouths. Bottom line, we're done waiting on Ramos. This is his year, sink or swim.
ReplyDeleteAgree it's make or break for Ramos but I think he's going to have to make it in Sacramento before he gets another chance in the majors.
DeleteI think pretty much everyone was off last year on D, Slater was uncharacteristically sloppy at times. Doesn't seem like a decline in athleticism issue. So I expect a defensive bounceback. That'll give you 3-4 WAR so why would that combo leave a bad taste? There are far greater worries elsewhere.
DeleteOne of the too many areas that the Giants were deficient in 2022, and perhaps their worst statistically, was their defense: they allowed 84 unearned runs which was 2nd most in MLB (the Cubs were worst of the 30 teams with 89 unearned runs).
ReplyDelete2B/SS/CF for the Giants, especially when Crawford was not playing, was generally horrid: only he and YtY had positive dWARs (both 0.1) of the players who were in 30 or more games (playing 2B/SS/CF). All 3 catchers had positive dWARs of 0.2 or more.
Interestingly, the Giants were 62-51 in Crawford's starts, for a percentage that would have won 89 games, 2 more than Philadelphia.
Notwithstanding Slater's gross defensive regression, his offensive splits against LHP are good, better even than YtY's against RHP – especially last year across the board. Slater, 2 years younger than YtY, has improved his oWAR for four consecutive years while YtY's has decreased.
But, as pointed out, Doc, if Slater's recent dWAR fall was an outlier, they make a very complementary pair for CF. To improve on 2022's 81 wins, they must.
There remains a competency gap at 2B – can Estrada improve? Without help from shifts, he will be even more exposed.
Will it be Will Wilson's path to MLB?
I'm interested to see how Vaun Brown does at higher levels this year. What a fascinating draft pick. 2021 10th round draft pick, 5th year college senior, $7,500 signing bonus. Bochy compared him to Hunter Pence, Will Clark mentioned him as one of his favorite players in the system. Question is can he make the adjustments so that his offense approach plays at the higher levels. It will be a fun story if/when he gets called up to the majors
ReplyDeleteOnce the CFer of the future, Hunter Bishop, now just 25 yo, if he could get his K-rate under control, has the tools: speed and athleticism to play.
ReplyDeleteBeset by multiple physical injuries, Covid (getting it and the disruption), and his swing-and-miss approach have worked against him.
If the coaching magicians can straighten him out, he will be CF until Matos or Brown or someone else comes around.
The current popular choice, Grant McCray, has a significant K-problem himself. 2½ years younger, he has time on his side.