2022:
Mike Yastrzemski 104 G, .214/.305/.392, 17 HR, 2.2 UZR, 5.2 UZR/150.
Luis Gonzalez 92 G, .254/.323/.360, 4 HR, 10 SB, -2.6 UZR, -6.4 UZR/150, 0.3 fWAR.
LaMonte Wade Jr. 33 G, -1.3 UZR, -7.3 UZR/150.
Joc Pederson 18 G, -1.5 UZR, -18.9 UZR/150.
Austin Slater 14 G, 0.6 UZR, 15.7 UZR/150.
Heliot Ramos 8 G
Bryce Johnson 4 G
Darin Ruf 3 G
Austin Dean, Ka'ai Tom, Jason Vosler 1 G.
2023:
Mitch Haniger(Steamer Proj) 133 G, .251/.323, .442, 24 HR, 590 PA, -1.0 UZR(2022), -4.2 UZR/150, fWAR= 2.0.
Outcome: Upgrade
Comment: Haniger is a clear offensive upgrade and only a slight defensive downgrade from the combined effort of last season. Of course that is predicated on him staying healthy all season, something he has struggled to do throughout his career, although most of his injuries were admittedly freakish in nature.
Like other positions, there is not much of a safety net if Haniger goes down. YtY could slide back over to RF but who would play CF? Slater is a much better defender in RF than CF so perhaps he could move over and the Giants could promote or trade for a CF partner for YtY? Perhaps Luis Gonzalez has had time to meditate on his mental mistakes of last season and will be more ready if needed again? Otherwise it is the same suspects as we reviewed for CF.
Interesting how much credence is given to Yastrzemski and a 2023 "rebound."
ReplyDeleteAccording to bWAR (fWAR differs), he has had a steady decline since his 2nd year peak in Covid-shortened 2020, but he has better numbers projected for next year (bWAR and fWAR).
Why? Not that it's so great: 229/.313/.424/.737 up from .214/.305/.392/.697, but why would age 32 bring a reversal? And is an OPS of .737 anything to laud? Last year his OPS+ dropped to 96, actually lower than Curt Casali.
It's easy to be a Yaz fan – he brings so much vitality to the game – but a projected WAR of 2.2-2.4 is just a beginning to get to the playoffs: someone needs to take the mantle of Posey-Crawford. And that guy is probably not going to start the season on the Giants roster.
I don't think YtY is an option for corner OF anymore. If he can maintain his offensive production(admittedly not great) and maintain is D in CF, then his WAR should go up just from the position value. If Slater proves to be an adequate platoon partner to limit YtY's exposure to LHP's, I think they can coax as much as 4 WAR out of the CF position.
DeleteIf SF can average 3 WAR from the four OF/DH positions (keeping Pederson's D off the field) and a couple each from SS/2B/C & maybe Davis, they'll have a good year, even 88 wins as long as the pitching doesn't collapse (not losing much more than half of Rodón's contribution).
DeleteThat's the upside.
Realistically, given the ages and past injuries, can the Giants even expect half of that (WAR)? Until the system pumps new life into the tent, the 81-81 model will likely prevail.
That's about right. I forgot to put in the Opportunity for Upside section here but it's really just Haniger has to stay healthy and hit at least 30+ HR's, which I think is possible but everything has to go right like almost every position.
DeleteHeard Pav's on a podcast say he saw Pederson and Kap at the niners game(go niners) and Pederson looked to be in great shape, good news since they'll need him to DH and spell Comforto occasionally in left field. Would be great if Ramos tears up AAA for a couple of months and put himself back in the outfield conversation
DeleteHope that's true about Joc. I saw a photo of him and Kap at the game. His face looked.....well it looked round.
DeletePav's did say when spring training starts we'll get stories that Joc is If not in the best shape of his life is in very good shape. We'll see.
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