FZ came out and broke his radio silence on the Carlos Correa situation in particular and the offseason in general. While there are still medical issues he appropriately feels he can't discuss, he is obviously feeling some vindication as Correa's situation with the Mets drags on. He directly refuted several Scott Boras assertions such as Correa was dressed on ready to go to the press conference when he first learned of the Giants concerns. FZ flatly stated the Giants informed Boras the day before about their medical concerns. He also said the Giants circled back to Boras after the Mets deal was held up but was told that Correa is focused on another team. Translation, don't expect Correa in a Giants uniform anytime soon. He also stated that any reports of disagreement between ownership and the baseball people in the process are false.
Tuesday, January 3, 2023
Hot Stove Update: Is the Giants Hot Stove League Season Completed?
FZ then spoke about the Giants offseason moves in the past tense and said he hoped the fans would understand they made some solid moves to improve the team. I think we all understand that FZ's offseason is never completely done and The Churn continues year-around, I assume all major moves are done unless an unexpected opportunity arises. I will start a series of posts looking at 2023 Giants position-by-position looking at whether they upgraded, downgraded or stood pat and speculate on how they might find upside.
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It was a good offseason, drama aside. The Giants are a better team than when the season ended. The whole "always finish 2nd" for star players narrative is bogus. What's important is the Giants are in on the bidding for the best players every year. If you build it they will come, we will land our dude eventually (Ohtani, Soto...). Our farm is intact and looking ready to produce, bring on Kyle Harrison (most exciting Giants prospect since Timmy). Farhan Zaidi is a top notch GM. Here's betting on 90ish wins and playoff baseball!
ReplyDeleteThe thing I struggle to understand about the offseason. Is how the FO thought they would replace Rodon's 6 WAR output, which was required just to get to 500. Does the path to 87-90 wins require betting on bounce backs, a better pen, plus Hanger, Stripling, Manaea, and Confront? Maybe?
ReplyDeleteOverall I think the offseason was good given the Giants risk averse strategy. All solid upside plays, but why must this team rely upon upside to succeed? The Giants should be constructed where the mean is 90 wins with one standard deviation down is still playoff spot.
Right now I see this team needing to play 1 standard deviation above the mean to make the playoffs.
Don't forget that by the end of last season the Giants were rolling out bullpen games at least 2 out of every 5 games and they were .500 in games Rodon started. They had to get a lot deeper at SP and that's what they did. As for wins, their ZIPS projection BEFORE the offseason started was 83 Wins. They have added at least 7 projected Wins to that. Of course real record could be significantly less or more. They probably have more volatility in their record than most MLB teams. In defense of the front office it appears they tried as hard as they possibly could to land a haymaker free agent but were stymied by unexpectedly bizarre circumstances.
DeleteThanks for the reply Doc
DeleteIn the fantastic Fangraphs article: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-dodgers-have-had-a-strange-offseason/. They actually have hand ledger with the most net WAR lost to free agency vs gained.
DeleteDodgers come in at a massive -14.3 net loss. Giants come in at -0.8. So this might actually lend credence to my theory that the Giants might have to depend on either upside or regression upwards.
To be a playoff team. After seeing this the loss of a Correa type signing really does sting a bit more.
FZ has built is entire career betting on upward regression.
DeleteThe Giants actually had a good off season. Haniger and Comforto are solid outfielders if they stay healthy. I'm hearing nothing but good things about Stripling and the Giants have a great track record of turning around pitchers like Manaea. Rogers will be a much needed backup to Doval closing games I'm happy that the Giants tried really hard to sign a big ticket free agent, can't blame them for The Correa fiasco. But it was a bad move to be so transparent telling everyone that they would be big players in the free agent market, coming up empty, hurting their PR. What might help now is announcing an extension for Logan Webb. Although Mike Krukow doesn't think FZ is done adding players.
ReplyDeleteFZ has shown on multiple occasions he does not know how to play the expectations game.
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