2022:
Brandon Crawford. 116 G, .231/.308/.344, 9 HR, 8.5 BB%, 21.4 K%, -3.5 UZR, 9.2 Def, 2.0 fWAR.
Thairo Estrada. 37 G, .260/.322/.400, 14 HR, 21 SB, 6.1 BB%, 16.5 K%, 1.5 UZR, 1.5 Def, 2.7 fWAR.
Donovan Walton. 14 G, .158/.179/.303, HR, 1.3 BB%, 20.5 K%, -0.3 UZR, -2.2 Def, -0.7 fWAR.
Dixon Machado 5 G, .200/.294/.200, 5.9 BB%, 29.4 K%, 0.3 UZR, 0.1 fWAR.
Jason Vosler. 1 G
2023:
Brandon Crawford
Thairo Estrada
Isan Diaz?
Brett Wisely?
Casey Schmitt?
Marco Luciano?
Will Wilson?
Outcome: Stand Pat
Opportunity for Upside:
1. Better health and a bounceback at the plate for Brandon Crawford.
2. Estrada moves over to SS full time and the Giants find another 2B.
3. Sign Carlos Correa to a short term contract(very unlikely)
4. Marco Luciano blows the doors out in Richmond, gets a midseason promotion and wins ROY(also a pipedream).
5. Trade for a reserve MI who can really pick it at SS(Not many of those available but there are a few).
Comment:
Well, the Giants tried for the big upgrade here. After torrents of outrage from sportswriters and fans alike, it now appears likely the Giants just had a really smart medical team that found something in Correa's leg others didn't and now the consensus is whatever they found is a legitimate concern. Now they are back to square one with a concern that at age 36 Crawford's regression last year could accelerate into a full blown age-driven decline and the backup plans are not looking good. On the other hand, Crawford is a year away from a .895 OPS so a positive regression with better health is not impossible.
We're talking about Crawford regression at age 36, while Correas contract would have paid him till age 41 on a bad leg. Glad it didn't work out. Schmidt is one of Will Clark's favorite prospects, but he only has 140 abs above A ball, maybe he will get a mid season callup. Hoping Luciano has a healthy 2023 season hitting 25-30 homers between AA/AAA ball with a sept callup . That would be a positive development and realistic expectation based on his talent. Alexander Canario signed by Giants that same year had a similar breakout in the Cubs system. Looking forward to seeing the progression of their minor league talent.
ReplyDeleteBaring a miracle with Crawford turning it around or Luciano comes up and proves he's an MLB shortstop, I'm not convinced we have a quality MLB short-stop anywhere in the system. Crawford was barely average last year with a few spikes in some negative defensive stats. Estrada wasn't good at 2nd base finishing in the bottom-third of all 2B in virtually all the defensive metrics and sometimes finishing bottom-5.
ReplyDeleteA really smart medical team can be a distinct advantage in knowing which comeback free agents to 'haul' and which to fold. Perhaps the perceived notion that the Giants are not afraid of signing players recently injured is not just because we simply rush in where angles fear to tread. Maybe we haven't been just playing Lotto, but using 'Big Short' type of research as a guide.
ReplyDeleteOn another note, of the four or so top SS free agent joints in the world this offseason, why did we stumble into one that is still an on-going saga? Pure coincidental?
Re. 4 SS's. I think it's just the way the cookie crumbled as they say. Trea Turner was either going to re-sign with the Dodgers or go to the East Coast. I did not see Dansby Swanson as having any interest in the Giants at all. Turns out his wife has connections in Chicago. Turns out Xander Bogaerts might have been a consideration but my goodness! I don't think we want him on the team we root for at that price. So that left Correa. He was arguably the best of the 4 until the medical issue, whatever it is, came to light.
DeleteRe injury risk, it may be as simple as short term risk for players that have an injury history is less than long term risk on players who have never been injured. So players with history of injury become an undervalued commodity. I do think there are certain types of injury and sequela that they might stay away from completely.
DeleteSpeaking of recently injured free agents, we just signed Luke Jackson, ex-Brave, who missed all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery. (Two years plus a club option for 2025.) It's a surgery that's been around for many, many years now, so teams and their medical consultants would seem to have a good handle on what kind of successful recovery to expect here. Can we still speak of differential valuing - which may come, for example, if one team assesses recovery as likely while most other teams are more negative? If not (ie. if every team has the same injury risk assessment), then the injury discount to his value should likely be about the same for all clubs, I would assume. In that case, there would be no relative undervaluing (due to this particular health factor) among the suitors.
DeleteHow many of these 12 players, listed alphabetically, might have 2.0+ bWARs in 2023?
ReplyDeleteBart
Conforto
Crawford
Davis
Estrada
Flores
Haniger
Pederson
Slater
Villar
Wade
Yastrzemski
And these possible but less likely
Diaz
Gonzalez
Ramos
IMHO, assuming the pitching performs (along with a backup catcher), 6 players with 2.0+ WAR's will make the playoffs. In 2022, they had -0-, none.
2.0 in bWAR is a "Starter."
Can you find 6 "Starters" in the list?
It's more likely to happen if Kapler does Live (and Die) by matchups...
... if Kapler doesn't Live (and Die) by matchups...
DeleteThe thing is, all of the championship teams were strong up the middle, as most are. Right now, we don't have a strong catcher, second baseman, or center fielder. A healthy Crawford is the only strength up the middle, and he's getting old. Perhaps Bart can turn a corner, but I'm not seeing a second baseman (Estrada might get better) or center fielder (nobody comes to mind. Yaz?)
ReplyDeleteYaz/Slater is decent at CF. Bart is solid and I think improving. I agree a rock at the keystone would be nice but seems like it's Thairo for now.
ReplyDelete