The Giants are coming off one of the more successful runs in baseball history with 3 World Series Championships in the last 5 seasons. While us fans and the Giants are still appropriately celebrating this remarkable accomplishment, it is never too early to take stock of where the team is and where it is going in the future. MLB "Dynasties" typically have a shelf life of about 5 seasons, give or take a season or two. Players peak years in the game are remarkably few. Historically, teams that try to hang onto their core players for too long end up with an expensive, aging core that can't keep up the pace. The current Yankees and Phillies would be examples. On the other hand, you don't want to blow up a team too soon depriving fans of a chance at sustained success. Over the years, the Marlins would be an example of a team that built a winning team for 1 year then blew it up, twice! The D'Backs of the 2000's might be another.
In all the euphoria over the Giants 3'rd championship in 5 years, serious Giants fans can detect a whiff of decline in the "dynasty." The Homegrown Core is getting expensive to maintain and is starting to show some age. Tim Lincecum has been losing velocity steadily and may not have much left in the tank. Matt Cain is coming back from elbow surgery. Brian Wilson has been effectively gone for 3 seasons now. Pablo Sandoval and Sergio Romo are free agents. Pablo will be extremely expensive to re-sign and Romo may command a bigger price than the Giants should meet.
On the brighter side of the big picture, while Buster Posey and Hunter Pence are expensive, they are both coming off productive seasons and appear poised to maintain their excellence for some time. The Brandons, Belt and Crawford, still have controlled contracts and are still on the upswing of their careers. Madison Bumgarner has one of the more team-friendly contracts in place and is only getting better after a remarkable season. Joe Panik, while probably not a future superstar or even All-Star, looks ready to hold down the 2B job for at least the next 6 seasons. Young reserves like Matt Duffy, Andrew Susac and Ehire Adrianza are probably good enough to start for some teams, but are blocked at their best positions in San Francisco.
So, what is Brian Sabean's roadmap to the future? He has some very big and tough decisions to make starting almost immediately after the Parade is over, maybe before. Does he commit another big, longterm contract to Pablo Sandoval, who has been a great Giant, but who clearly continues to struggle with his weight, or maybe he doesn't struggle with it enough! If Sandoval leaves, who plays 3B going forward? Does he let Sergio Romo walk and place his faith in Hunter Strickland's bigger fastball, but tendency to give up the longball? What is he going to do about Left Field? The starting pitching after Madison Bumgarner was in a shambles by the end of the World Series. What does he do to shore that up?
As for financial resources, the Giants continue to be in a solid position. Their ownership group is headed by a multibillionaire. Their ballpark is the best in baseball and a destination for people from around the world. They have a solid, though maybe unspectacular TV revenue situation. Winning the World Series will bring in another windfall of revenue. On the other hand, the Giants seem determined to remain "good citizens" within the MLB community and not flirt with the luxury tax which puts a self imposed cap on how much they will spend to bring in free agent reinforcements. I am OK with this as the track record of teams that bust through the salary cap and the track record of large, multi-year contracts around MLB is quite dismal.
The main route through which the Giants keep their talent replenished will likely continue to run through the farm system. While there is plenty of talent on the farm, the bulk of it is still in the lower minors and impact talent may still be at least a year or two away. On the other hand, impact talent is in the eye of the beholder. Nobody was calling Joe Panik an impact talent at this time last year. He may still not fit the definition for some analysts, but he sure impacted the outcome of the 2014 season!
We will get into the State of the Giants in more detail as we move into the offseason with analysis of position depth charts, the free agent market, the trade market and the farm system. For now, I would say the Giants continue to be as well positioned for the future as any team in baseball, but we may be in for a year or two of transition for the roster as the Homegrown Core continues to age and get more expensive.
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I might change my mind later, but it seems this year's championship blooded team achieved more with less.
ReplyDeleteMadison in the 8th and 9th inning of the 7th game, instead of Casilla or Romo? The 2010 team seems to be the most talented, on the pitching side, for sure.
Right now, my belief or I have faith that if we can get into postseason play, with Bochy and the chemistry/character of the players - championship DNA - Sabean puts together, we cam always dream we go all the way, even if that always brings out the worst in Ray Ratto.
I definitely think on the "age" we are at a fork in the road. Either we reload or we have some down time. I honestly don't think Panda back; too much money, too long, too fat. We let Uribe walk, we didn't go after Wilson (after his injury), etc. I also think they let Peavy go; while at the end of the season, I would have had a different view, he was just horrible in the post season and we already have issues with the Tims. I think we sign Petit and let Tim v. Petit fight out No. 5. So we need a 4. Based upon what happened, in the playoffs, I really think we dodged a bullet wih only one starting lefty, and that the Giants will give one of their kids a shot (Blach--is Fleet a lefty too)? Perhaps there is someone else out there, but I just think we need to balance and promote. Longer term (2 years plus), we're in great shape hence another reason why we don't do something drastic.
ReplyDeleteOn starting, I think Panik will be an all star. After the play he made, he's every bit as good as Gordon. Plus he hits better. It will be interesting whether we do a long term deal with Belt, but I can see Posey taking over there. Although Belt's defense was pretty good too so maybe not. We will be solid at 2b, SS and Catcher (from a depth and starting stand point). OF is set at starter in RF and CF. I think Carbonell works his way into the equation as back up, and maybe replacement of CF after Pagans' contract is up. We also have the kid who got hurt in A ball to take over for Pence. I also wonder if Brown forces his way into the equation, and then maybe Carbonell is also in the equaton at RF.
The obvious holes are LF and 3b. There were times that both carried the team, but hardly season wide. I'm hoping we sign Tomas (which is a long term solution). Maybe Parker becomes part of the equation. If we do that, Duffy at 3b works ok for me.
I think the pen is in solid shape. Between the kids coming up,the guys under contract, we'll be fine.
Lot of ifs, hence the fork.
ps, thanks Doc. As a SF fan living in hell (LA), you are a life line.
At first I was optimistic that the Giants would sign Yasmany Tomas for LF. But, with winning the World Series without Cain and Pagan and a cheap contract in Morse and Blanco in LF I think they are thinking that they do not need to add a big bat to be competitive. I would be surprised if they shell out a huge contract this offseason unless the player's name is Pablo Sandoval. I am guessing they will try to get Pablo on a nice 4-5 year deal which he will probably decline and move their target to Chase Headley on a 1-2 year deal. He plays good defense and has a lot of potential at the plate where it would be low risk considering the amount of runs he protects on defense. As far as LF is concerned they could go get a guy like Nick Markakis on a 3-4 year deal or Morse on a 2 year deal.
ReplyDeleteStarting pitching is another issue. Peavy just completely fell apart in the postseason so I am not sure what he has left for next year. He was great in September but that was very short lived. I definitely do not think they make a run at Lester or Scherzer. I like James Shields but I cannot see offering a 32 year old anything more than 3-4 years which he will most likely get 5-6 somewhere else. There is Ervin Santana who has been pretty good the last few years and might be a cheaper alternative to Shields. Maybe Edinson Volquez who did well for the Bucs.
Even with Sandoval and Romo probably leaving I still think we will be competitive hopefully with a healthy Cain and Pagan and a full year of Panik. I am expecting a quiet offseason for the Giants. I do believe it is possible that the Giants make a trade to fill some wholes with the surplus of arms in AA. Tomas seems unlikely but I would love to see it happen. The way Abreu and Puig have hit the scene you have to be very optimistic about Tomas. I have heard that people see Tomas as a better impact player than Castillo. I am excited no matter what we do because of the nice core we have.
Yasmany Tomas!
DeleteI heard Sabean say that the Giants have about 30 million to work with to fill roster. OF, 3B, RP, and SP. There is the Giants Way which is to overpay and keep Panda. Then, there is the new school way like a comp to the Cardinals which is to let him go and take the draft picks. As Boston as favorites that gives you a second rounder...yuck. There first round is protected. Giants can point to Pence and tell Pablo that Hunter took less money because he wanted a ring! You can try to sell him on that idea, but my guess is Pablo will leave and take more money. That being said I'm ok with Arias or Duffy playing 3B. Giants are built on pitching and defense anyway. The hitting they lose with Panda, Giants can hope they can recover with a full year of Panik, Belt, and Pagan.
ReplyDeleteWith the Giants being built on pitching the guy I want is Lester. One because he is a lefty. Second, he has strikeout stuff which you need as you can see in postseason. Thirdly, he won't cost a draft pick. Yes, he will eat up the 30 million Giants have to spend but, the other areas of team can be found internally with rookies or the favorite of Giants... non-roster invitees. I think Romo is gone with the evidence of Bochy's man crush on Homer Strickland. Keep talking about the kids makeup...that Hunter is a great guy. You have Kontos also. If you can get Lester in the 6yr 120-130 area do it. Pull the trigger. Sell him on Rings! Mad Bum needs to be watched closely next year. Don't really know what to expect from Cain. Hudson hit a wall in second half. Lester would be a good fit for NL, the Giants and is a proven starter. He also extends that window another 5 years. It's not the money with Panda. I mean if he signs a 5 yr contract...his body scares me in the last 3 years of that deal. The babies in minors are still at least 2 years away. Lincecum and his 18 million is again the 5th starter for sure unless he is traded, but he has no trade clause. Please thank Peavy, but can't be re-signed.
I also think Blanco should start in center and Pagan moved to LF and of course, Pence stays in RF. Carbonall is the wild card. The way he is playing in AFL makes me believe he isn't ready yet. Perez can be 4th OF.
On draft picks, as I understand it, whether a team is draft protected has no bearing on the team losing the player. So, Giants get a first round comp pick if they offer a qualifying offer ($15mm ish) and Panda signs elsewhere. Boston doesn't lose their first if they sign him, but we still get a comp 1st. This was discussed a bit when Seattle made a run at Timmy.
DeleteThat is correct, PLB. Giants would receive a Compensation Round draft pick for Pablo no matter who signs him. The draft pick that the signing team loses disappears.
DeleteOr a comp to the Royals...a little.
DeleteBy that I mean, speed and back end bullpen. We have a great bullpen, but I wonder if we can have a pen like that, since we are going to have a couple of open spots there, as well as in the outfield (not sure if Bochy will use speed to their extent).
Their starters of Guthrie and Vargas are OK, but that Ventura kid, he did a very good job.
You have an interesting idea about Lester. I think he'll be priced out by huge demand, but it's a good idea. There are actually a few SP on the market for once, so maybe one can 'slip' to the Giants.
DeleteI don't know how the money breaks down or who will be available. My thoughts are:
ReplyDelete1. Cain and Pagan will be back (perhaps Pagan needs a platoon or more regular days off?)
2. Our starting pitching was starting to melt down by the end
3. Romo and Sandoval will command too much money for my blood
That being said, I think the Giants need to spend their money on another SP and another OF. I think the Sabean regime can find a bullpen arm off the scrap heap. Otherwise, we need to hope that Belt stays healthy and continues to progress and see what Panik, Susac and Duffy can do for a season. The pitfall I can project happening is investing all this money in some guys who may have already peaked only to see the team plunge into a downward spiral (ala the Phillies).
I don't think "blowing up" the roster is needed now. I definetly would not over pay for Pablo and the team needs at least one younger, more dependable starter than Timmy, Peavy or Hudson. I like Lester alot and think it would be a bold move but in light of the rest of the pitching in our division, almost a necessisty.
ReplyDeleteI think we have a couple of trade pieces in Crawford and Pagan ( we have proven we can win without him and their was an article that thought he might be a fit for the Tigers) without having to raid the minors and clear some payroll. That said, Crawford could also move over to third and cover for Panda and let Ehire play SS. We would not skip a beat in terms of defense. To me, if Belt ever lives up to his potential and stays healthy we could asorbe the loss of offense in a couple of other areas if need be.
I think we also let Romo walk (who are we kidding, he's going to be a Dodger) and maybe Guiterez and try to shore it up some more with either internal guy like a Strickland or go get a value FA veteran.
Overall, I think the Giants are in good shape to make some moves, not break the bank and keep the core guys. We have a chance to keep the run going a bit but we are going to need another big time pitcher for sure to keep up with the Jones in the league.
I would think Pagan needs to prove he is healthy for the Giants to find a trade partner for him.
DeleteDoc,
ReplyDeleteYou got thrown under the bus in the comments section of the parade post at Giants Extra for your dislike of the Bum pick in '07. Who did you want the Giants to go after at the time? Was that Hayward? I seem to remember that you were a BIG Hayward fan going into the draft.
I wanted either Heyward or Beau Mills, but yeah, I liked Heyward a lot.
DeleteBut I also wanted Sabean fired at that time so a lot has changed since then.
DeleteWell, to be honest, who amongst us has never, at one time or other, thought he or she could do a better job?
DeleteDoc, do you think we have more, less or the same number of holes to fill today versus a year ago?
ReplyDeleteI would like to hear your comment to that question with respect to team itself and relative to other teams in the division and the rest of the league.
Oh, and relative to the money available to spend now versus then, as well.
DeleteAbout the same number of holes to fill and about the same in terms of money to spend as last year. Second base got fixed but 3B is now open. LF continues to be a problem area. They need at least 1 SP and a reliever or 2.
DeleteIf we could do patch up those holes to where we are today, perhaps we can do it again and look forward to where we will be in 12 months...with a little luck.
DeleteAccording to Ray Ratto, we lucked out with a little help from Uggla. Our success was due to desperation. The world has nothing to learn from Sabean (presumably because we only need to learn from Beane, as I have never read anything dark nor humorous from him about the Monyeball guru).
Interesting. A bunch of reports are saying Panda wants to be back and Giants want him. May be posturing, but maybe they will drop 100mm on him. Apparently, Panda also said he doesn't need a Pence deal so not sure what that means, but certainly sounds like a home team discount.
DeleteI think Pen gets fixed interanlly. We still have Kontos who came on (it seemed like he wasn't in shape at begining of season). Cordier pitched well. I think Stricklandi is the real deal, and will benefit from Rags' attention. Yes, he's got gofer problems but he also has some major stones. Just got work on a secondary pitch.
I really got the feeling from the way Panda was talking at the end of the Series that he likes being a Giant and he really likes the team and they like him.I think he knows he is on something special. Plus, if I recall, he is not represented by some high priced agent, I seem to recall it is by a friend or something so maybe they can work something out. However, if those big offers start flowing from other teams, all bets are off. Sabean has done a good job in the past of taking them off the market before that happens and he is going to have to act very quickly with Panda if he is going to have any luck.
DeleteDesperation is the mother of invention and it happens to other teams as well. Remember when the A's had Scott Sizemore penned in as their starter at 3B and Adam Rosales as the backup plan. Well, both of them go hurt within a few days of each other so they threw a failed catcher prospect named Josh Donaldson out there and all he did was become a top 5 3B.
DeleteI think the Giants priorities are
ReplyDelete1. Try to re-sign Pablo. It's gonna be hard, but Headley is the only other option out there, and I think he'll have lots of suitors as well.
2. Try to add a SP. I don't think Vogey or Peavy should be back. I'd like the Giants to go after someone like Liriano or this offseason's version of Phil Hughes.
3. Try to add OF depth. I think I am okay with waiting to see what Mac Williamson does next year before the Giants think about getting a permanent OF. BUT, if 3B is gonna be manned by Duffy, I think they should try to add an OF this offseason.
Personally, I would be okay with next year being one where Susac gets a chance to develop as a catcher/hitter, with the idea that he can take over in 2016, thus allowing Buster to move to 1B. Belt could then either be moved to LF or traded to fill whatever holes we might have.
i believe that the current giants org is patterning itself like the cards and atl
ReplyDeletedrafting and developing players who fit and to fit into the giants system....and doing the same with trades
this way of running a club leads to long term success
nobody can win the ws every year....but one can be consistently competitive and entertaining
and im looking for 2015 to be another down year
and as much as pablo brings to the club and sells crap for the club, they would be insane to hand him a 5 year 150 mil contract...he just doesnt work hard enough....
quick note....mr panik has now become the team's heart throb....poor craw is all but forgotten
bacci
It works for the Cardinals, maybe not so much for the Braves.
DeleteDon't know about heartthrobs and don't care, but Crawford seriously needs to do something different with his hair.
i think his wife digs the hair
Deleteand chicks dig the baby faced players....and i was amazed at how many females were in the crowd at this year's parade...and how many said that panik was their fav player
know you dont care...but marketing in a huge part of selling the game....and if you cant sell it, you cant spend it
bacci
5 year, $150 million? AAV for 30mil/year. Yeah that's probably WAY too high. But I'd have to think real hard before passing up a 5 year 95-115mil?
DeleteI'm sure the Giants FO is taking steps to address their closing window of opportunity. No team says it drafts based on the needs of the big league club, and this is speculation on my part, but I think they drafted Beede since he was in their estimation the highest ranking college arm available rather than selecting a potentially higher ceiling high school pitcher who would take longer to develop. The somewhat curious choice of Aramis Garcia, a strong defensive catcher with a useful bat from the college ranks, leads me to think he is meant to back up Susac when Posey moves off of catcher during or after 2016. The Giants offensive plan right now seems to be putting together a lineup that is not so much "fearsome and strong", but instead is "solid and long". Slots 1 through 8 are tough outs who keep the line moving as Boch likes to say. Any hitters signed this offseason to play a major offensive role will likely not be an all or nothing slugger since that just would not fit with the Giants scheme. I don't see them signing a headliner starting pitcher either. After Bummy, a healthy Cain and Petit slot in at 2 and 3. Huddy would presumably be #4 and Boch will likely baby him a bit more to make sure he doesn't run out of gas late in the year. That leaves Peavy, Timmy and perhaps Vogey to battle it out for #5. There is some quantity there, if not top notch quality, but the Giants make try to make do with that until Beede, Blackburn, or other promising arms in the lower minors are ready. The bullpen should be fine. Boch and Sabes are masterful at constructing and utilizing the bullpen and I am confident they will continue in that regard. Then again, the Giants may totally cross everyone up and do something unexpected. And you know what? I have learned to just trust them. They have certainly earned it.
ReplyDeleteThe Giants need at least one frontline starting pitcher. Look around at the Dodgers and the Nats and you can assume all roads to the WS are going to lead through them next year and we can't hope that we can get through it with some guys on the back end of their career and hope Cain and Lincecum are going to be able to bounce back. The WS proved that at this point we have one legit starter and the rest are questions marks over the long haul. To me, that is where we spend the most of our budget and make it work in the other areas.
ReplyDeleteReminder that Vogey, Peavy, Hudson, Petit, and Lincecum gave up 2 runs in the LDS. And Lincecum pitched 1.2 scoreless in the WS (which matches or surpasses some of the games started by Peavy and Hudson).
DeleteLooking at it only from the 5 Giants FAs. The interesting thing is how you value your FAs based upon regular season vs post-season play. Both are important and neither can be discounted.
ReplyDeletePablo Sandoval - you either pay him The Pence Plus or let him go and earn the SS draft pick. The thing is the Giants are going to have to spend similar moneys somewhere over the next two years. Is it on Pablo, a Cuban OF, or 3rd, 4th and 5th starters by 2016? Where do you spend your money, because you will spend it. Pablo fits very well as a) he's homegrown and popular and you retain your own in this era, b) he fills a position with no comparable replacement options available from the farm or FA, and c) he's a proven star in the post season and solid in the regular season especially his D. I don't think he'll exceed his contract ala Pence or MadBum, but I don't think he'll be a complete bust ala Rowand. Giants best bet is to Pay the Panda, he's earned it.
Jake Peavy - Given his season saving regular season performance (discounting Boston stats) and his mess the bed playoff performance, Peavy has questions, questions that will get worse with age. I think Peavy is who we have seen, probably a little worse in the regular season and the same ugly in the post season. Plus I think Peavy will not give the Giants/Bochy a hometown discount. This is his last big contract and he already has rings. He will want too much in AAV and 3+ years term. I say pass on more than 2 years. But we better pray that Cain returns to pre-perfect game ace status and the farm coughs up some real deal starters.
Sergio Romo - Love the guy. But, it's time to start turning over the bullpen to new blood as the old contracts expire. Plus his stats are trending down. Hunter Strickland or Kontos replace Romo. Romo goes to the Bums or Tigers and gets paid well.
Michael Morse - Keeper. If we don't keep Pablo, then you must retain the Beast. Morse regular season, when not overexposed, gives the Giants a long lineup, dingers from the bench, a DH for interleague play, backup for LF and 1B, and an inspired player who wants to be here. In the playoffs Morse proved his value, period. Morse should be retained on a two year deal, he's not blocking any rooks at this time either.
Ryan Vogelsong - With Cain a question mark, Huddy turning 40, Peavy gone, Petit a new starter, and Timmy who knows what, the Giants need to retain real options for starters. Think of him as starter insurance. Plus I think he likes playing for the Giants and winning rings.
its clear that peavy cannot pitch in the al anymore
Deleteso that's half the mlb out of the bidding
he loves playing for bochy...he may not give a hometown discount, but it may weigh in on his decision
i think they should give vogey another year contract, with the same terms...
everyone seems set with petit in the rotation, but that has been tried before....with not good results....he works great as a long rp and spot starter
prob with morse is that he is gonna get some very good offers to go to the al as first base and dl and would be crazy to give up the money offered
romo is gonna be in blue next season....will make his grandfather very happy
bacci
There was an article on Fangraphs looking at how Rags has worked with Petit to change his curve to a tighter, harder pitch and how that has been a big difference maker for him. He may do better in the rotation this time around.
Deletemaybe
Deletestill an iffy proposition
but giants may have no choice at the moment
i cant see them getting into a bidding war for any of the good fa pitchers on the market and none of the kids on the farm will be ready come april 1
gonna be a very interesting hot stove season for sabey sabes and his crew
bacci
as an aside, monell is an fa. giants need depth in the catching position...i wonder if they try to bring him back
Petit has proven success at the long man role. Starting record at ATT has been solid, on the road not so much. I think Petit can pitch well in the West's pitchers parks, not at Coors. No question Petit's success towing the rubber as an every 5th day starter remains an open question. But he has earned his shot.
DeleteThat's in part why bringing back Voggie as starter insurance is important.
I'd keep Vogey over Peavy too. Morse is a goner though, no place for him to play defensively.
ReplyDeleteTrade Belt for Starling Marte. Lincecum in the pen replaces Romo. Sign Ervin Santana to a 1 year deal. Let Panda go and try Posey there just to see if he can and if not, he replaces Belt at 1st and Susac becomes starter at some point. Duffy or whoever plays 3rd if Posey can't cut it. Could also go after Alex Rios. Just a few ideas but what do I know, I was one of the few who was good with the Morse and Hudson signings last year. Then again I also wanted Sabes to trade for Revere and Utley before the trade deadline. I actually think this might be one of Sabes best offseasons.
ReplyDeleteWhen I was trying to make a list of possible trade chips for the Giants, Belt was the clear #1, so I would not dismiss that. I doubt Pittsburgh give up Marte for him, though.
DeleteWhile I don't know if the Giants can afford to use a roster spot on Morse for 2015, his bat was an asset in the first 2 months of the season and in the postseason. I doubt the Giants even make the postseason let alone win a championship without him.
While I think Belt is the Giants #1 trade chip, I don't think he should be dealt this offseason.
DeleteThe Giants need to let him have a healthy season next year and produce in a fashion similar to what he did in 2013.
Assuming he does that, I think the time to trade him would be next offseason when the Giants have a better idea of what holes they need to fill. By that point we will have a better idea of what our pitching prospects, Mac Williamson and Susac can do and where they fit.
It's weird to transition so quickly from the joy and euphoria of winning another World Series to trying to re-construct the team. I suppose that's what we arm-chair GMs do.
ReplyDeleteHere are my two cents:
Pablo is the obvious factor in how things play out this offseason. It'll determine how much money we have to spend (or not) depending on if he's back or not. For what it's worth, I hope he is. But not to the detriment of starting pitching and the bullpen. With Panda back, I'm perfectly content with improvising in LF (a mix of Blanco, maybe some reps for Belt, and whoever our 4th OF is--Morse?).
In regards to plugging other holes and considering options if Panda does leave, Duffy could play a role here, as could someone like Asdrubal Cabrera. Neither are natural 3B, but they may be serviceable at the position. Another name to consider is Emilio Bonafacio. He wouldn't be our 3B, but he has experience there and can be a 4th OF, and backup 2B and 3B. He'd give us depth on the bench and some added speed. He and Duffy filling in every other day could add a fun dynamic to the lineup. Now, this would be a more rag tag approach, but it gives Bochy a lot of flexibility and moving parts. If Morse were brought back to share time with Blanco, PH, DH for inter-league games, and be an extra 1B, he's the power off the bench.
OF: Pagan, Pence and Blanco (Morse and Bonafacio)
IF: Belt, Panik, Crawford, Cabrera, Posey (Duffy, Arias, Susac)
On to pitching:
I'd love to see us go spend on Andrew Miller. Yes, he's a lefty. And yes, that would be a lot of money tied up in another reliever (especially if Timmy comes out of the bullpen). But he's tough to hit and would be a huge, huge boost to the bullpen. As for our starters, I'm torn. We can't afford one of the top three, nor should we try. Ervin Santana would be the best in the next tier, but even that's a gamble if it's a multi-year contract. But we don't know how Cain will recover, Vogey and Peavy are huge question marks, and Hudson belongs at the end of the rotation. And then there's Timmy and Petit. I imagine one of them earns a starting role (the other is the long man), which means we have Vogey and Peavy to chase, or a FA for the final spot. Santana would be an upgrade over those two, and could form a nice 1-3 with MadBum and Cain, but is he worth the risk of inconsistency and/or injury?
Lucky