Sunday, October 19, 2014

Thoughts on the 2014 World Series: Pitching Matchups

Here's how the pitchers match up for the Royals and Giants in the 2014 World Series:

Starting Pitchers:

James Shields(RHP)-           14-8, 3.21, 223 IP, 7.14 K/9, 1.74 BB/9, 45.2 GB%.
Madison Bumgarner(LHP)- 18-10, 2.98, 217.1, 9.07 K/9, 1.78 BB/9, 44.4 GB%

Strong matchup.  Bummy was better in the regular season and has been stronger in the postseason.  Shields is more rested.  I'll go with the Big Guy to keep it going.  Gotta get past that first inning, though.

Yordano Ventura(RHP)- 14-10, 3.20, 183 IP, 7.82 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, 47.6 GB%.
Jake Peavy(RHP)-             6-4, 2.17, 78.2 IP, 6.64 K/9, 1.94 BB/9, 37.6 GB%

Young fireballer vs Veteran Savvy.  Peavy has been a bit shaky in both of his postseason starts.  Flyball tendency should not be a problem in either ballpark.  In fact, the Royals have several hitters in their lineup who you probably want to hit the ball in the air!  Call it even.

Jason Vargas(LHP)- 11-10, 3.71, 187 IP, 6.16 K/9, 1.97 BB/9, 38.3 GB%.
Tim Hudson(RHP)- 9-13, 3.57, 185.1 IP, 5.70 K/9, 1.62 BB/9, 53.1 GB%.

A couple of wily vets here.  We all know what a competitor Huddy is.  He's waited an entire career to pitch in the World Series.  Giants can struggle against LHP's.  Probably even-steven here, but gotta be rooting for Huddy big time!

Jeremy Guthrie(RHP)-   13-11, 4.13, 202.2 IP, 5.51 K/9, 2.18 BB/9, 43.6 GB%.
Ryan Vogelsong(RHP)- 8-13, 4.00, 184.2 IP, 7.36 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, 38.4 GB%.

Two guys who will try to hold it together through 5 then turn it over to the bullpen.  Even.


Greg Holland(RHP)-     1-3, 1.44, 62.1 IP, 12.99 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 48.1 GB%.
Santiago Casilla(RHP)-  3-3, 1.70, 58.1 IP, 6.94 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 56.3 GB%.

Holland is lights out.  Casilla had been lights out until the 9'th inning of NLCS Game 5.  Edge to Holland.


Wade Davis(RHP)- 9-2, 1.00, 72.0 IP, 13.63 K/9, 2.88 BB/9, 47.6 GB%.
Sergio Romo(RHP)- 6-4, 3.72, 58.0 IP, 9.16 K/9, 1.86 BB/9, 36.8 GB%.

Kelvin Herrera(RHP)- 4-3, 1.41, 70.0 IP, 7.59 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, 49.2 GB%
Jeremy Affeldt(LHP)- 4-2, 2.28, 55.1 IP, 6.67 K/9, 2.28 BB/9, 66.7 GB%

Jason Frasor(RHP)- 3-0, 1.53, 17.2 IP, 8.15 K/9, 2.04 BB/9, 45.7 GB%.
Jean Machi(RHP)- 7-1, 2.58, 66.1 IP, 6.92 K/9, 2.44 BB/9, 52.0 GB%

Tim Collins(LHP)- 0-3, 3.86, 21.0 IP, 6.43 K/9, 4.71 BB/9, 41.4 GB%
Javier Lopez(LHP)- 1-1, 3.11, 37.2 IP, 5.26 K/9, 4.54 BB/9, 65.8 GB%.

Brandon Finnegan(LHP)- 0-1, 1.29, 7 IP, 12.86 K/9, 1.29 BB/9, 58.5 GB%.
Hunter Strickland(RHP)- 1-0, 0.00, 7 IP, 11.57 K/9, 0.00 BB/9, 56.3 GB%.

Danny Duffy(LHP)- 9-12, 2.53, 149.1 IP, 6.81 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, 35.8 GB%.
Yusmeiro Petit(RHP)- 5-5, 3.69, 117 IP, 10.23 K/9, 1.69 BB.9, 35.5 GB%.

Tim Lincecum(RHP)- 12-9, 4.74, 155.2 IP, 7.75 K/9, 3.64 BB/9, 47.3 GB%.

This series could come down to Bumgarner vs Shields.  The starters seem evenly matched beyond that.  I do think that whichever team has the lead after 6 innings of each game has a strong probability of winning the game.  The Giants bullpen is very good, but KC's is fantastic.  I've tried to match them up as best I could but they are two differently constructed 'pens.  I don't think KC has anybody to quite match up with Petit.  I don't expect Tim Lincecum to be a factor, but he could appear if a game goes deep into extra innings or to mop up after an early blowout.


  1. They tend to issue more BBs.

    Our guys have to be patient.

  2. In the regular season, we were 62-6 when leading after six innings, and KC 65-4. The difference isn't statistically telling. So your suggestion, DrB, that wins will go to whoever has a lead in the first two-thirds of games is very sound. I assume that the Giants will have each KC starting pitcher's typical MO plotted out so that our hitters will know how and when to be aggressive so as to maximize the likelihood of scoring soon, without concern about tiring out the KC starters' arms and so having to face their extraordinary pen.

  3. key to this series

    team that makes the least amount of mistakes will win

    as a giants fan, im hoping the gmen win it all

    as a baseball fan, i will not be upset if kc wins it


    1. Oddly, I've found myself feeling this way, too.

      This whole thing about worst world series ever, however...TOTAL Bumpkis (self-fulfilling prophecy indeed!). I have a feeling this one is about it be a fantastic final series, and enough tension for the whole nation to enjoy.

    2. Ask me after the series - that's the only 'living in the present' response I can come up with. At least, that's how I believe our players will say.

      Thinking about anything other than ways to beat KC is just a distraction, at best.

  4. Get to the starting pitchers! Period.

    The Pen doesn't have to be better than KC, but they have to match them.

    Bacci, if we get swept in four, I ain't going high-fiving KC.

    1. If kc sweeps the giants, they will have done what no other team has
      Go undefeated in podt
      And that deserved a high five

    2. I'll say that if KC wins, I won't be AS upset as if, say, the Texas Rangers or the Detroit Tigers won.

      I just want the Giants to win, first, because I am a Giants fan and always want them to win and second, because I feel like if they win, they will cement HOF berths for Sabes and Boch, which would be a tremendous feather in the cap of the organization.

    3. if sabey sabes makes it to the hof, in his speech, i want him to thank "all the cockroaches that made this possible"


  5. If Bum bests Shields (which a betting man might just bet), and Ventura pitches like the young guy he is, overthrowing under the big lights and big pressure, then the Giants will have this one in the bag.

  6. There is an informative article on Fangraphs today by Eno Sarris about how the Giants hitters match up against the Royals pitchers better than the Royals hitters do against the Giants pitchers based on the hitters' strengths vs. the pitchers' strengths. I think it corroborates what we already know about the Giants hitters... they are not overwhelmed by big velocity. In fact, there are times when they seem more susceptible to soft tossing pitchers who they have not faced before. The Giants just have to maintain their sound approach at the plate and they should fare well against the Royals arms. Furthermore, the Royals two big advantages over the Giants, speed and bullpen (the latter may not even be a "big" advantage) are secondary strengths. By that I mean the Giants can neutralize both by attacking a primary weakness of the Royals: keeping runners off base by taking advantage of our pitchers' strengths vs their hitters' weakness and by attacking their starters before they can even use their bullpen to its fullest advantage.

    1. Thank you, baseballjunkie, for this comment.

      I rather focus on this than speculating about future events that will just sap one's energy. If anyone hopes to succeed via biofeedback and positive imagery technique, you have to visualize victory and only victory at this moment.

      I urge everyone to focus on only that.

      Surely, it is painful to dare to hope, because the price of dashed hope is too steep. But that's part of learning. I know, because I was there...wanting to take the easy way out - the other guy is just too good, I don't think this prospect of ours will make it, the other GM is a genius who makes gutsy moves, etc, etc. If you think like that, it is certain you will never get hurt in life...that's much is true. Or you can dare to hope, to dream and understand that's part of life.

  7. ot

    our old friend, great scribe and now great atty, gb, is gonna be on hbo real sports this tuesday

    it was real sports that first reported on concussive syndrome in the nfl, and helped to enact change....maybe this is the push needed to get the sports world to look at the conditions of the minor league system