As I have said several times already, this year's NLCS, at least on paper, is one of the most competitive in recent memory. These two teams have dominated postseason baseball now for 4 seasons with a guarantee that one of them will represent the NL in the World Series for the 5'th season in a row. On top of that, both teams are remarkably similar in construction and talent. The outcome will depend heavily on intangibles like mistakes, decisionmaking and momentum. I can easily imagine the series ending in 4 games with either team winning or going down to the final out of Game 7. The competition should be fierce and emotions could run high.
Here are my Keys to the Series for the Giants:
1. Starting pitchers stay hot. Despite all the noise about relief pitching on a lot of baseball oriented sites, starting pitching is still the biggest key to winning. Yes, the bullpen plays a bigger role than in decades past, and can certainly lose a series for you, but you have to get to the bullpen first. You also cannot ask a bullpen to go 4 or 5 innings every game, so you can't be pulling your starter in the middle of the 4'th inning every game either. Giants SP's have always turned it on in the postseason and have done so this year. That needs to continue if they have any chance of advancing.
2. Get a lead early. Giants starters have had a tendency to give up a run or two in the first inning all season. You can't do that and expect to win in the postseason. The opposition pitching is just too good. By the same token, it helps to get on top early, even if it is by just 1 run. Get on that scoreboard first and you have a great chance to win!
3. Top of the order. Scoring runs, especially for the Giants who aren't going to overpower you with HR's, is for the top of the order to get on base. Blanco and Panik came alive a bit in Game 4 of the NLDS and it was the difference in the ballgame. They need to keep that going into the NLCS.
4. Pence and Pablo. The Giants need their hackers to be a bit more under control with their hacking. Look, both of these guys are going to take their hacks, that's a given. This is no time to try to turn them into Joey Votto, and I'm not sure you ever want that anyway. On the other hand, they don't need to hit 3 dingers in the game to win. They just need to not pop up or strike out with runners at the corners. Both these guys are more effective when they hack with the pitch instead of trying to pull everything out of the park. Go the other way. Hit it up the middle. Keep the line moving!
5. Brandon Belt. He's been a force so far. I expect a key dinger or two from The Belter.
6. Defense. It was not coincidence that the 1 loss in the NLDS came when the defense broke down. Giants have an advantage on D at several positions. Defensive miscues almost always become a factor in postseason series'.
7. Manager decisionmaking. I have to tell you. While I am happy that Bruce Bochy is finally starting to get the recognition he deserves, all this talk about him being one of the best of all time is making me nervous. Talk like that can make a guy become self conscious and self consciousness is almost always a bad thing and almost always gets in the way of good decisionmaking. Let if flow, Boch! Managing was a big factor with the same two managers in 2012. Mike Matheny has had two years of a learning curve. He'll be better this time around.
Can't wait for this series to begin!
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Former catchers like Boch and Matheny seem to have a knack for leveraging the right bullpen arm against a specific hitter or two. We need 8 more wins, so I know both of these teams' bullpens will be in the ice baths and ready to throw multiple innings or back-to-back-to-back days if necessary. Personally, I think these two are so evenly matched, this may be one of those times where the manager actually does dictate the outcome of a whole series.
ReplyDeleteTonight we need to get on the board against Wainwright early. He's a horse, but getting some guys on with no outs and putting a run or two across may get him second guessing whether his elbow is worse than he thought.
Andy in SD
Getting ahead early, even if by just a run or two is a huge key to the series, IMO. Of course, that did not seem to help LA much, but the Giants bullpen is not LA's and Bruce Bochy is not Don Mattingly.
DeleteReally strange pre-game show last night for the Royals/Orioles, but thought I'd point out something cool for those who didn't watch it. It was strange because it was a talking head + Pedro Martinez + Gary Sheffield. Actually a pretty lousy team, but Pedro said something that I think may summarize why the Giants are so good in the playoffs... I'm paraphrasing, but this is pretty close to what he said:
ReplyDelete"The postseason is all about lingering. Whoever lingers the longest without showing fear or stress, the other team usually breaks at some point. From here on out in the playoffs, there will be big games won just because one team is mentally prepared to linger longer than the other."
Andy in SD
I've seen those guys do pre and post game shows for TBS. They aren't the smoothest talkers in the world and Pedro has a definite language challenge, but I like listening to their comments. It's kind of more folksy and not as polished as other talking head sports shows, but sometimes you can pick up pearls of wisdom from someone who is just talking from his heart than someone who has polished up a narrative.
DeleteExcellent summary. I'd add the battle of 2011 1st rounders: what will Panik and Wong do? Will they fade under the lights? Wong has that unfortunate gaffe on his jacket. I would also say a key to the Giants is to take advantage of subpar defense up the middle, the Cards OFs are not excellent, especially their LF. And I'm not buying Jhonny Peralta's UZR. We'll expect runs to come at a premium, so does that mean its a good thing to bet the over?
ReplyDeleteGo Gigantes!
Pure speculation, but I have a hunch that Crawford will be our surprise 'hot hitter' in this series. He was looking confident at the plate in the Nats series, and had several solid "at 'em" drives that were within inches of being big hits. I'm feeling that he might be able to extend a couple of key rallies when we need them. Again, just a hunch.
ReplyDeleteAs always, GO GIANTS!