Thoughts on the 2014 NLDS Giants vs Nationals: Keys to the Series

I'm not going to lie.  On paper, the Washington Nationals look like the best team in the postseason, and it's not particularly close.  They are so good that they will probably have a starting pitcher with an ERA of under 3 pitching out of the bullpen.  They have good hitters from 1-8 in the lineup.  If there is a weakness, it might be the bullpen, but that is only relatively speaking.  They have a strong bullpen too.

Of course, facing a team that is better on paper in the postseason is nothing new for the Giants.  The Phillies in 2010 looked every bit as imposing.  I mean, they had Roy Halladay coming off a postseason no-hitter against a very good hitting team!  We all know what happened in 2010!

This is a different Giants team than the one that took the field against the Phillies in the NLCS 4 years ago.  That team had a 1-2 SP combination of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain at or near their peak.  After that, the starting pitching might have been a bit shaky with a rookie Madison Bumgarner not quite the beast he is today and Jonathan Sanchez who could be brilliant but could also completely lose the strike zone at any time, and of course, Barry Zito who was left off the postseason roster entirely.  The offense was held together by bailing wire led by two guys, Andres Torres and Aubrey Huff having career years.  Buster Posey was a rookie, although a very good one.  Pablo Sandoval was on the bench do to conditioning issues and poor play.  The Brandons were in the minor leagues.  Their right and left fielders were reclamation projects picked of the waiver wire.  We won't even talk about the SS and 2B, two old players whose bodies were literally in the process of falling apart.  What the Giants did have was the best bullpen in baseball, so good that it gave them the best pitching staff 1-12 in baseball!  They also had a much despised and ridiculed manager who was secretly the best in baseball without anyone knowing it.

In many ways, the 2014 Giants are a better team than the 2010 team.  The lineup is younger, faster and stronger.  Aside from Madison Bumgarner, the starting pitching is probably not as strong, although Jake Peavy looks like a reasonable stand-in for Matt Cain.   The bullpen is similar but lacks the dominant closer they had in 2010.

So, despite the apparent dominance of the Washington Nationals, the Giants are not bereft of weapons, particularly on the offensive side of the ball.  What do the Giants need to do to win this series?  Here are my Keys to the Series:

1.  Get a great start from Jake Peavy and win game 1.  This sets up Madison Bumgarner pitching game 3 in SF with the series no worse than 1-1 and an outside chance of being able to go for the sweep.  So game 1, IMO is huge and it is not a stretch to think Peavy is up to the task.

2.  Get in front first.  It seems like the Giants have too many starters who take an inning or two to get comfortable and into a rhythm.  They cannot fall behind this Nationals team and expect to win.

3.  Play great defense.   The Nationals have a great defense too, but don't concede the field to them.  Don't give up runs you don't need to give up.  Keep the games close into the late innings.

4.  Pence and Pablo play within themselves.  At the end of the regular season, it looked like both players were trying the win the game in 1 AB on every AB.  They did better against the Pirates in the Wild Card game.  They need to keep that going.  This series will be won by a long lineup that keeps the line moving.  There may be situations where they have to swing for the fences, but in most cases, the HR's will come from guys like Brandon Crawford in the Wild Card Game who was just trying to hit a Sac Fly.

5.  Brandon Belt.  Not sure what it is, but I think this guy is going to have a huge postseason and he's the type of hitter that can carry a team if he's hot.

6.  Bruce Bochy.  Boch was a difference maker in both 2010 and 2012 and in the just completed Wild Card Game.  He might be the best manager in baseball and is one championship short of being a no brainer for the HOF.  Matt Williams has done a nice job where others have failed in Washington, but this is his first postseaon as a manager.  He might be starting a HOF managing career himself, but chances are he is not.  Look for Bochy pushing the right buttons to be a difference maker once again.

What are your keys to the 2014 NLDS?