Josh Osich, LHP. DOB: 9/3/1988. 6'3", 235 lbs. B-L, T-L.
High A: 0-2, 3.62, 32.1 IP, 11 BB, 34 K
Josh Osich is yet another pitcher who is hard to place on this list. I could see an argument for him being ranked significantly higher. Halfway through his junior season at Oregon St. in 2011, he was projected as a mid-late first round draft pick with the Giants rumored to be scouting him heavily. He was coming off Tommy John surgery, but was getting double digit K's and even pitched a no-hitter against Trevor Bauer and UCLA. Then he started regressing and was rumored to have recurrent arm problems. The Giants drafted him in the 6'th round while still collecting medical information up until the pick was made.
He made his professional debut in San Jose, an aggressive assignment for a pitcher. He started out in the bullpen, then made two starts then moved back to the bullpen saying he felt more comfortable there. He also had two stints on the DL, the second one for shoulder soreness. He did finish the season with a flourish with 5 shutout innings in his last 5 appearances with 7 K's and just 1 BB in those 5 IP. He had a 2.19 ERA over his last 12.1 IP.
He apparently still has velocity in the arm. Giants Director of Players Development, Fred Stanley told Joe Ritzo on sjgiants.com, "Well, everyone has to love Osich's arm. He can throw some bullets out there. If he stays healthy, he'll be in the big leagues soon." Osich features a mid-high 90's FB and a solid changeup. He is just starting to develop a curveball. He was not allowed to throw breaking balls his last season at Oregon State due to his recent TJ surgery. Staying healthy would seem to be Osich's biggest challenge. Questions about his ability to do that are a big reason I did not rank him higher. That, and I thought it curious that he feels more comfortable in the pen. That just seems like a strange statement to come from a kid who was a starter for a Pac 12 school.
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ReplyDeleteIt's reasonable to say that a player's likely contribution is the product of his staying health and his talent.
ReplyDeleteThat is to say, for any stat, we have
Realized stat = health probability x past stat
Since the number of the signinficant figures of a product is not more than the smaller of the two that make up the product, we should not have stats that are more precise than we can say about the player's health.
I think you (meaning management, not us casual fans who are without the most recent access to a player's health) can discover more bargains, especially for a small market team spending less than say, in 2012, $70 or $60 million on your players, by being more astute than your peers on that health front.
Many a promising career has been derailed by injuries. They can happen as a single catastrophic event or an accumulation of seemingly minor individual injuries. Injuries that otherwise might not be career ending can seriously derail a career if they occur at a critical time. I've always thought that Kevin Frandsen's achilles injury occured at the precise time it could do the most damage to his career.
DeleteYeah, I totally agree about Frandsen. He was poised to become our starting 3B, with no real competitor for the position, so he probably would have held it all season, much like his replacement (forgot his name, from Pirates) did. Instead, he was out all season, really, then probably wasn't fully healthy or at full strength when he competed in the spring and lost, then he sulked his way off the team.
DeleteHad he been healthy, he probably still would have lost the 3B job to Pablo, but likely would have done well enough to get moved to 2B and compete for the starting spot there, and probably win it, we didn't have much there either, Burriss, until the Franchez trade.
Osich and Bandilla have a ton of upside but are also very significant injury risks. Osich needed TJ because of a freak accident btw, it happened on the field but not while pitching. I don't know what to think of the guy saying he prefers the pen. That burst the bubble of getting him on the starting path. Maybe he was trying to be a team player and piggy back on whatever the Giants had him doing.
ReplyDeleteThe Giants have a lot of nice depth with their lefties, between Kickham/Mejia/Escobar, Osich/Bandilla/Surkamp, new draftees McVay and Okert as well as Dreamy Dan Runzler, who might be getting his last chance this year. As the draft has some very interesting lefty arms, particularly on the prep side, maybe the Gints will load up some more come June. Jonah Wesely and Robert Kaminsky look particularly nice, and I just saw a mock that had Ian Clarkin going to us. I'd be cool with that as well, although I like the first two better.
I really love Osich. Great velocity for a lefty, overpowering with some good command. Totally agree that his injury history is the main reason for him being so low.
ReplyDeleteI was a bit disappointed to see the reliever comment too, but given his history of injuries, perhaps that's just a mature recognition that he has been prone to injuries and/or still recovering from his TJS. Also, that is clearly his fastest path to the majors, and maybe that is what he cares about most.
Really excited to see what he can do in AA next, hopefully that is his assignment.
i like drafting Osich in the 6th round because it makes him a low risk high reward draft pick. Hopefully he can stay healthy in 2013 so he can work on developing his secondary pitches. A lefhander with good command who throws in the mid-upper 90's can be useful in any bullpen. If he develops his secondary pitches the Giants might have a late inning weapon out of their bullpen.
ReplyDeleteLG
According to Henry Schulman on twitter the Giants expect to begin discussions with Buster Posey on a "blockbuster extention" sometime this Spring. Great news!
ReplyDeleteLG
Much as I love Buster Posey, I'm not sure how I feel about a "blockbuster extension." Buster carries a lot of risk with him due to the position he plays. I am also not convinced that we've heard the last of that ankle injury either.
DeleteWith risk comes rewards. Buster is a rare rare bird. This is the type of franchise move you have to make. Just like with Matt Cain.
DeleteCount me in on Buster. I do not expect him to stay at C his whole career, just long enough to find his replacement and to rake in a huge contract. That is OK with me, without him we do not have two championships, sign him up for as long as he is willing, I would like him to be a career Giant.
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