Sunday, January 27, 2013

DrB's 2013 Giants Top 50 Prospects #38: Jacob Dunnington

Jacob Dunnington, RHP.  DOB:  2/2/1991.  6'2", 160 lbs.  B-L, T-R.

Low A:  1-0, 4.50, 10 IP, 5 BB, 14 K's.

AA:       0-0, 1.76, 15.1 IP, 8 BB, 18 K's.

AFL:  0-1, 6.75, 9.1 IP, 4 BB, 14 K's.

OK, I admit I had no idea where to rank Jacob Dunnington who might be one of the more intriguing prospects in the Giants system, but remains intriguing precisely because we still don't know all that much about him.  He was signed as an undrafted FA out of HS which makes him unusual right out of the chute.  The fact that he bore such a striking resemblance in many ways to Tim Lincecum only heightened the sense of intrigue.  Smallish, boyish looking, Washington State, heck, he even bats lefthanded!

The big problem in evaluating him is that after 3 seasons in the system, we still have a very small sample size of under 120 IP.  On the plus side, he has maintained K rates well above 9 per 9 innings.  His walk rates could stand to be lower but they are not terrible.  His ERA's have been variable.

We know little about his scouting report.  I found an article from the Richmond Times-Dispatch from this last August that suggested he has filled out his frame to 180 lbs and has gotten his velocity as high as 95 MPH.  That's about it.  If those things are true, at age 22, 2013 should be a time for him to take the next step and build up some innings.

I would expect to see him back in Richmond to start the 2013 season.  Given the relative weakness of the pitching coming up from last year's San Jose team, I wonder if we'll see him in the Richmond rotation?


  1. Lincecum reference gets a lil more love in the fact that Timmy was born in Bellevue and Dunnington in next door Redmond.

    I had the articles handy, here you go:

    And another one from his time in Augusta:

    The Steve Kline quote is the money part to me:
    "He has the willingness to go after people, and that's a rare trait to have," Kline said. "He's got good stuff. He's got three-plus pitches."

    I remember a year ago you were thinking rotation for Dunnington, I think the Richmond club has some holes in the rotation, that might just be the ticket.

  2. This is the kind of underdog story that I'm a sucker for. Little guy, undrafted, signs for nothing. He'd be young at 22 for AA. His overall minor league ERA is 2.64. 12.1 K per 9 IP. Yep, the walks are a little high. But, all in all, the numbers seem pretty encouraging.

    Anyone know why he only had 25 IPs last year? (He had 65 in '11)

    Thanks for the links Shank.

  3. I wouldn't really know about him if not for DrB. He is a great story, rooting for him.

    Was pleasantly surprised that he got to pitch in AFL, good sign of what the org thinks of him.

    About his high walk rate, what people need to remember is that many pitchers can survive high walk rates if they have even higher strikeout rates, resulting in a K/BB ratio of at least 2.0 if not much higher. He was fine at every step last season, good sign for the future. Also good is that he's still striking out over 9.0 K/9. That is a good sign of dominance that should hold up should he reach the majors.

    Given his numbers, and at such a relatively high level, I would have thought that he would be higher than 38th, but I think that the others above him also look intriguing too for their own good reasons as well, so as DrB notes, don't sweat the ranking, enjoy that we can have these joyful conversations down so low. His main issue appears to be his lack of pedigree and lack of knowledge about him. But the numbers, for me, are very compelling, looking forward to what he does in 2012, could be a Dirty kind of late find who rises fast and high.

    Reminds me of another guy who we signed outside of the draft and he reached the majors at some point, can't remember who, Accardo?

    1. I would agree with all that but caution that the sample size at each level is microscopically small.

    2. Yes, definitely small sample size at each level, my main plus point is that even as he rose, his K rate and K/BB ratio was still very good at each level. Small samples but he continued the performance as he rose, so that stuck out for me.

  4. Is he a new member of the 95MPH+ club?

    1. Possibly, although I would take the newspaper article with a grain of salt.