Monday, December 3, 2012

Hot Stove Update: Scouting the Rule 5 Draft

I've been cruising around the internet looking for Rule 5 eligible prospects who could conceivably interest the Giants.  It's not easy to get a read of who is Rule 5 eligible because you start with the universe of all prospects and then look at each one to see if they have played the number of years necessary to gain eligiblity.  Besides, I really despise the Rule 5 draft.  IMO, it's ruined way more players than it's helped.  Still, for devoted prospect hounds, it has a certain intrigue to it.

As for eligible Giants, the only one I think might be seriously at risk is LHP Chris Gloor who has AA and AFL experience with some success.  Other names who might interest someone include OF Nick Liles, OF Ryan Lollis, 2B Ryan Cavan, UT Alex Burg, RHP Craig Wescott.  None of these players is at high enough risk to use a 40 man roster spot to protect and none are prospects the organization cannot afford to lose.

I could see the Giants taking a flyer on a relief arm, reserve MI, or a 5'th OF.  Here are a few names to consider:

1.  RHP Ryan Chaffee, Angels.  Hard throwing Righty played at A+ and AA levels last year with composite line of 7-1, 2.60, 65.2 IP, 36 BB, 84 K's.  He did not pitch well in just 6.1 IP, in the AFL.  Will be 25 years old in 2013.

2.  RHP Josh Fields, Red Sox.  Former first round draft pick of the Mariners.  He was a college closer for Georgia.  Pitched for AA and AAA last year  4-3, 2.01, 58.1 IP, 18 BB, 78 K's. Will be 27 years old in 2013.

3.  OF Kenny Wilson, Toronto.  Toolsy OF who will turn 23 yo in January.  B-R, T-R.  Played at low A and High A levels last year.  .260/.362/.358 with 5 HR, 55 SB, 12 CS.  Gets on base and steals bases.  Superior defensive CF.  Young enough to have some upside and could possibly stick as a 5'th OF on a good team.

4.  2B/SS Odubel Herrera, Rangers.  B-L, T-R.  Turns 21 in December.  Played at high A Carolina League last year  .284/.335/.382, 5 HR, 27 SB.

5. 2B Rafael Ynoa, Dodgers.  B-S, T-R.  25 yo.  Played at AA level .278/.364/.352, 0 HR, 23 SB.  AFL  .330/.374/.515, 2 HR, 7 SB in 97 AB.  I'd like to see this one just to annoy the Dodgers.

Of course, there is an strong possibility that all these guys will be long gone by the time the Giants pick comes around.

Anyone on your Rule 5 radar?

20 comments:

  1. This is a long shot but Nate Freiman is one i would like. He has power to provide and maybe even compete with Belt.

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  2. Wow, wonder why Ynoa is not protected if they put him in the AFL and then he did so well. Yeah, I would be OK with a pick up like that.

    Yeah, hard to find these players, I would just leave it to MLBTR to put together an interesting list, or even BA should.

    Isn't Giants prospect hounds up in arms over Bond? Of course, he was available last season, i think, and no team bit on him then either.

    Those types - relief, utility MI - seems to be the types the Giants picked previously in past Rule 5 drafts, so good call on that. And we have picked up so many free agent OF that one via Rule 5 would not surprise me (oh, was Velez a Rule 5 guy? I recall picking him up from Mariners or Blue Jays, but can't recall how).

    I like Fields' numbers. Wilson looks good too. Ynoa as well.

    As you note, the Rule 5 draft is not really that easy to call, nor have any been successful for the Giants. But with Johan and Hamilton and Uggla as big surprise hits from prior drafts, that will keep interest high in his process, even though it is likely that nobody does anything good enough to stick.

    That would be an interesting study by BA, how players selected have done in that season after the pick, how many get returned, how many sticks, etc.

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    1. Velez was a minor league Rule 5 draft pick from the Blue Jays. I don't remember what qualifies a player for it and the requirements for keeping the player, but it's something that's very under the radar and no one really pays any attention to (to give you an idea of the quality of players exchanged in it, I believe Velez is considered the most successful player to come out of that portion of the Rule 5 draft).

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    2. Ynoa was protected by Oakland.

      DrB, in an earlier post you said the Giants draft position at #27 might change depending on the FA with qualifying offers. How is that possible? Don't teams just lose their 1st round (if their pick is not protected) pick to the players old team? and I think they get 2picks but that other pick is after all teams have drafted in 1st round. Am I wrong?

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    3. Oops. Sorry I thought you were talking about the pitcher, my bad.

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    4. Velez, if I recall right was drafted under the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft, so we didn't need to keep him in the majors.

      The reason the Giants draft position might improve is that in the new CBA, any team drafting in positions 11-30 can lose their pick if they sign any free agent given the qualifying offer by their former team. The old team does not get that pick, the pick just disappears. However, it is "replaced" by giving the old team pick in the supplementary first round. Thus if the team picking at 20 (whoever it is) signs Hamilton (who I assume got the offer from the Rangers), pick 20 would disappear, everyone after that in round one moves up one, putting the Giants at #26, and there is only 29 picks in the first round. But the Rangers would get pick #30 in the supplemental round (in this example, they are the only team getting such a compensatory pick; they have some rules regarding how to order the teams, probably from worst team record to best would be my guess).

      So there is still only 30 picks before the second round (actually, I think one team got a compensatory pick from the 2012 draft because they failed to sign their pick - Appel? - so I think the first round technically has more than 30 picks for 2013; I'm just trying to show an example), and instead of getting the pick of the team signing, you get a lesser pick that falls into the supplementary first round.

      This used to reward competing teams with a lower (better) draft pick when losing teams sign their free agents plus a supplemental. Now they only get one pick that is worse than what they would have received from the signing team before.

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    5. OGC, there are also the competitive equalization picks that are thrown into the sup round. I believe there are 5 picks that go the the 5 poorest teams (or something like that). Not sure if these go before or after the compensatory picks, though...

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    6. Ah yes, forgot about that additional wrinkle, thanks. Plus they can also trade them, though I think that there is a window for that.

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  3. V pleased to see that Pagan will be a Giant at what seems to me, given the inflation rate in baseball, a reasonable price: a $5M signing bonus with a $35M backloaded contract over 4 years. If we can sign Scutaro for two years and snag a good bat for LF, I'll be happy. I trust the FO to insure we have a strong bullpen via pickups like Mijares and Kontos, if not via our farm teams, so that we can be as set as one can be for the new season. ST games start Feb 23 . . .

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    1. Wow, after all the rumors, didn't think the deal had a chance to be so low on an AAV basis, $10M per seasons average. I guess the point about giving Pagan the qualifying offering is now moot, since even if the Giants did do that, with this signing they don't get a pick out of it.

      I can live with the extra year at this amount, particularly since it is backloaded. This is a nice pre-Christmas gift to Giants fans. This also boosts the Giants offense for 2013, giving us a better chance to repeat.

      Go Giants!

      Now let's get Scutaro signed.

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    2. Yup. Well done, Sabes! Hey, if Gary Brown forces the issue, Pagan's contract should be eminently tradable unless he totally tanks.

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    3. Looking good! Like the signing, don't have to sweat losing that draft pick opp, and now they can go looking for a LF and hopefully Scutaro.

      I think Pagan can be a good RF at PacBell, and I think the Giants are setting up Gary Brown for success instead of failure through taking the pressure off.

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  4. I glad that Pagan is coming back.. The contract is 1 year too long for my taste, but Pagan's game suites AT&T park well and he's an important piece for the Giants to have to defend their WS title. Lets hope they get Scutaro signed, but not for 3 years, which according to rumors is not out of the question.

    My initial reaction, was wow what does this say about their evaluation of Gary Brown? He's probably not on the fast track to MLB.. Then again, maybe they could also move Pagan to a corner OF spot to make room..

    LG

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    1. I would not be shocked to see Pagan move over to a corner to accommodate Brown. Although you are probably right that the Giants think less of him. There's no way that the Giants would have signed a centerfielder long term a year ago with the kind of season brown had a San Jose. The Giants still really like Browns attitude and liked that he volunteered to go to minor league conditioning camp after the AFL. I would not be surprised to see Gary Brown playing some sort of role for the Giants next season.

      And Scutaro might be a little harder to sign at this point, with the Yankee's interest likely growing after the news with A-Rod. I know the Giants do have some interesting fall backs though.

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    2. That's good to hear about Brown volunteering.

      While he's there, he might work on improving his base stealing as well as conditioning.

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    3. I wouldn't count on Hunter Pence being a Giant past 2013 meaning that Pagan or Brown could play RF while the other takes CF.

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    4. I like Pence, and hopefully we can sign him long term, along with our homegrowns.

      I do not think that there is any huge message on Brown here, as Pagan would be OK in LF.

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  5. I wonder if Ian Kinsler would become available? Profar and Andrus seem pretty locked in for the middle infield roles for the foreseeable future.

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    1. Kinsler has said he is willing to move to the OF to make room for both Profar and Andrus if necessary. I'm sure he will make the move if Hamilton signs elsewhere.

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  6. Morse for Casilla

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