Sunday, December 2, 2012

Scouting the Draft: 3 College RHP's

Here are 3 profiles of college RHP's, 1 who is consistently ranked in the late first round, 1 who has been linked to the Giants in 1 mock draft and 1 who caught my eye as a possible riser or sleeper who may be available in round 2.

1.  Ryan Eades, LSU.  Eades is consistently listed in the late first round in early mock drafts.  He was a bit overshadowed at LSU by Kevin Gausman but has emerged a breakout candidate based on his stuff.  He stands 6'3", 200 lbs.  His FB sits at 91-93 MPH and touches 95.  He shows command of 3 secondary pitches, slider, curve and change with the curve showing plus potential.  The concern is his performance has not matched his stuff.  Here are  his stat lines from 2 college seasons and his 2011 Cape Cod League when he was named the CCL pitcher of the Year:

2011 NCAA  4-1, 4.81, 43 IP, 18 BB, 31 K.
2011 CCL     3-0, 0.84, 32.1 IP, 7 BB, 23 K.
2012 NCAA  5-3, 3.83, 94 IP, 28 BB, 63 K.

I'm always suspicious of college guys who scout better than their performance, but Eades may be poised for a breakout.  You can find a more complete profile and an 8+ minute video over on Big League Futures linked to the left.  To my eye he has a clean 3/4 delivery with quick arm action. Moderate effort. Strong follow-through I do not have GB ratios, but I would guess he induces a lot of GB's.  Eades is the 12'th ranked college draft prospect by BA.

2.  Andrew Mitchell, TCU.  One mock draft had Mitchell going to the Giants at #27(draft placement will change with the signings of FA's with qualifying offers).  He is listed at 6'3", 220 lbs.  FB goes 90-93, touches 94.  Secondary stuff is developing. He has stronger K ratios than Eades, but has had control issues and his stuff sounds like it is not nearly as developed.  Here's his stat lines from 2 college campaigns:

2011  6-1, 2.84, 76 IP, 31 BB, 73 K's.
2012  5-3, 3.74, 77 IP, 46 BB, 101 K.

Again, there is a more complete profile on Big League Futures with a video clip.  In the video he had an easy motion.  The guy making the video had a radar gun that was registering 88-91 on fastballs.  He struck out a LH batter with a breaking ball at the back foot.  The southwest region is tough on pitchers so his performance there may project to higher levels.  He certainly has a big league body.  He is listed at #62 on BA's college draft prospects, so could be available clear down in rounds 4-5.

3.  Aaron Blair, Marshall.  This guy is actually my favorite of these 3 even though he seems to be not as highly ranked in mock drafts.  He stands 6'5", 220 lbs.  FB 90-92, touches 94.  Has a change and curveball that he commands and can throw in FB counts.  He has performed well for Marshall in 2 seasons and was a Cape Cod League All Star in 2012.  Here are his stat lines:

2011 NCAA  2-3, 2.72, 36.1 IP, 13 BB, 34 K.
2012 NCAA  2-8, 3.98, 83.2 IP, 28 BB, 82 K.
2012 CCL     6-0, 1.17, 38.1 IP, 12 BB, 44 K.

Again there is a full profile on Big League Futures as well as video.  It's the video I fell in love with.  Check out his arm action and tell me what you think.  One more observation.  In the video, he's pitching with a runner on base and for a big guy seems to deliver the ball quickly with almost a slide step.  BA has him ranked at #38 in is college draft prospects list which would make him available in round 2.


  1. I have always liked the guys who's stuff don't translate into performance. It seems like they either fall of in the minors or they are just one piece away from putting it all together, and I believe the Giants are that organization that can do that. Maybe that's just me being biased.

    I also believe those kinds of guys are great late first rounders or second rounders. Obviously when you take a guy as one of the top ten picks, he's generally got great stuff and potential, and has also gotten the results, but I think hes exactly what you look for in the late first round and then just hope that he has a breakout season sometime soon in the minors

    1. Thanks for the comments. I will post more in the future.

    2. I love your draft stuff. Getting me excited for June really early, makes me a little sad.

  2. With Stanek, Crawford and Bobby Wahl getting all the hype, I really like that 2nd tier of pitchers. I agree, I really like what I saw from Aaron Blair in that video. You'd think he has a good chance to add on velocity with that frame - I think the knock on him is he's throwing more in the low 90s (BA chat my source on that) but he has that nice mix of pitches which screams pitcher. You throw low 90s but can pitch AND you can dial up the heat when you need it, you will go far.

    Keep your eye on this guy: Coming off of TJ, the Giants seem very active in OK in both college and prep lately and never shy away from TJ guys. High heat, maybe he'd profile more as a reliever.

    I don't like Eades delivery nearly as much as the other guys. If Crick went to TCU I could have seen his profile as close to Mitchell's - great stuff with control issues galore.

    ASU's Trevor Williams will get some hype, I like the guys you picked more. Colby Suggs looks like a reliever at the next level. Pepperdine has a righty named Scott Frazier along with a nice lefty named Aaron Brown. Also, USF has another live arm to keep an eye on - Alex Balog.

    1. I plan to do a part II on this one and Scott Frazier will be in that one. I liked him out of HS and I like him even more now.

    2. I'm doing a post on lefties in the draft and lefties in the Gints org I'm going to put up soon on MCC.

    3. Not linked over to the left on your site anymores!