In hot stove speak, the term "non-tender" has taken on an active meaning as in the Giants "non-tendered" Brian Wilson last night. To read that, you would think the Giants handed Brian Wilson a piece of paper and had him sign it or some other action that involve them, you know, doing something. In reality, "non-tendering" was a non-action, the absence of a contract offer. Now, Brian Wilson may or may not have received some sort of notification from the Giants that a contract offer would not be forthcoming, but the way Brian Wilson officially knew he had been "non-tendered" was when 9:00 PM PST passed and nothing happened.
Brian Wilson is now a free agent because under MLB's Collective Bargaining Agreement, if the Giants offered him, an arbitration eligible player, any contract, it had to be for no less than 80% of the $8.5 million he made in 2012. The problem with that is Brian Wilson sat out all but 2 games of the 2012 season after undergoing his second "Tommy John" surgery. If you look up a list of pitchers who have undergone two TJ surgeries, there is nobody on it who you would want to pay $6.8 million for them to pitch for your team. Oh, and the Giants won a World Series without Brian Wilson's participation. Now don't get me wrong here, a healthy Brian Wilson would be an asset to any team and well worth a 20% raise let alone a 20% pay cut, but he's not healthy now and there are no guarantees he'll be healthy next year or ever again. In fact, it seems likely that he won't ever be fully healthy again! There is a common perception that ballplayers get paid for past performance. Not true! Ballplayers get paid for what someone THINKS they will do in the future. Now that is partly based on past performance, but other factors such as present and future health play a big part too.
It is now believed the Giants are interested in re-signing Brian Wilson as a free agent to a contract with a relatively low base-pay(which, BTW, would still put Brian Wilson well within the 1% club) with incentives for how much he is able to play. Brian Wilson is said to find such an offer "insulting" because of all he has done for the Giants in the past. Admittedly, Brian Wilson has done a lot more for the Giants than just pitch for them. He is a near-genius at calling attention to himself. By extension, he has called a lot of attention to the Giants too. That has resulted in countless sales of fake beards, gnomes and other geehaws that baseball fans love to spend their hard earned money on. My daughter will be heartbroken if Brian Wilson is not a Giant next season, and if he's a Dodger, well, let's not even think about that one.
Still, for all Brian Wilson has admittedly done for the Giants, the Giants did a lot for Brian Wilson. They drafted him after his first Tommy John surgery in college. They stuck with him through struggles in the low minors when a lot of teams might have released him. They stuck with him after he strained an oblique muscle in something like his second major league pitch. They gave him to opportunity to be their MLB closer with minimal apprenticeship as a set up man when not many observers were seeing it(OK, they were desperate, but still....).
Brian Wilson was paid $8.5 million last year while spending the entire season on the DL. I hope he invested that money wisely. If he did, it will be enough to allow him to live comfortably for a long time. He's an unusual guy and I certainly wouldn't put it past him to make it all the way back as a MLB closer, but the chances of that happening based on our prior experience with repeat TJ surgeries is pretty small. As for the Dodgers paying him a lot of money just to annoy and embarrass the Giants, well, I would remind them of Jason Schmidt and Juan Uribe. How did those contracts work out, Ned?
Around the League: There were several interesting "non-tenders" around the league yesterday including Andres Torres, Ryan Sweeney and Jermaine Mitchell.
Is it just me or did the Braves make a very strange trade by sending Tommy Hanson to the Angels for Jordan Walden? I'm guessing that trade tells you something about what the Braves think of Hanson's long term health.
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It will be sad to see Wilson in another uniform, but it looks pretty likely.
ReplyDeleteThe Braves are going to be scary. I really liked Hanson, but getting Walden makes that back end of the bullpen even more nasty. Walden, Venters, Kimbrel will shorten games for sure.
I have also read reports that the Diamondacks would trade Justin Upton if they could get Andrelton Simmons in return. Why is Simmons so valued? The Upton brothers and Heyward would look nice in the same outfield.
Dr B, do you have any information about Simmons that you could enlighten us with? Thanks
Simmons is an elite defensive shortstop who has the potential to become an average to slightly above hitter.
DeleteDo the giants have any chance to get simmons and flip him for upton?
DeleteWhat kind of prospects would that take
I do not recall any instance of Brian Sabean being involved in 3 way or sequential trades of any significance. Maybe flipping Ronny Paulino counts but I don't consider that on the same level as flipping Simmons for Upton. I think it is highly unlikely the Giants do that just on Sabean's history alone.
DeleteThe Braves already rejected offers from a fairly highly motivated Rangers team for Simmons. The Rangers almost certainly have more firepower for trades in their system than the Giants. I just don't see it as a fit.
freddie will also not be offered an invite to st.
ReplyDeletehe was a good giant
wilson will always be a giant, no matter where he ends up. wish he wasnt taking this so hard. he knows its a biz, which is why he developed a persona that could be easily marketed.
i wish him well. long live king hembree
bacci
in other notes. mark purdy and the majority of baseball sports writers in this country, along with he who painted his sock to make it look like he was bleeding during the ws...are all dicks
ReplyDeletei have spoken
bacci
in more news...sorry for taking up space.
ReplyDeletenate was released and torres is close to release. giants should make a play for andres. still would be a very good 4th of and very reasonable salary. and great clubhouse guy.
for a kid who grew up in the bay, nate never really seemed all that happy as a giant. maybe thats cuz his mom was a a's fan and the majority of his family are bum fans. or it may just have to do with how the club dealt with his development and how he was treated once he got up. too bad beane doesnt rank defense highly. he would be a good fit for the a's. im sure he will get signed somewhere. i wish him the best on his future as a well traveled journeyman
Well, Beane values defense now a lot more than he used to. I think once a player gets a certain rep around the league it takes a special situation to break out of that.
DeleteI think Nate has pretty well established a rep as a guy who is streaky, gets hurt a lot and while he has a great arm is not always accurate with it. Otherwise his D is average to slightly above average.
I have to say I smelled trouble way back the first time I saw his swing in the minors. He's never been able to completely shorten that up to reduce his K rate to acceptable levels.
A study I read in THT annual last year found that when comparing top prospects kept vs. traded, the team trading knew something was up, as the average WAR was higher for kept ones. I think that concurs with DrB statement that the Braves know something is up with Hanson. An article I saw, not sure if Fangraphs or not, showed his velocity dropping a lot too. But the Angels are desperate so they are giving it a shot.
ReplyDeleteNate was able to get his K rate to acceptable levels, his issue was consistently doing that. Also, one month he is like Bonds or Pujols, next month he is not even Neifi, no team will put up with that indefinitely and Nate just could not break that pattern. Funny if Nates mom is As fan because he would not have made the majors with the As since he could not do walks or boost his OBP. Ironic he ended up with Giants, a team that made it possible for tweeter like him to win two rings.
Good accounting of all that the Giants did for Wilson, great job! Very good things to point out that it was not a one way street, that the Giants did a lot for him too. Given his usual theatrics, does anyone think he is making a big stink just to make it a bigger story?
Yes, more or less.
DeleteCan never discount pure ego when it comes to athletes, but Wilson knows the value of grandstanding and staying in the news.
If Wilson signs with the Dodgers, he's dead to me. A real Giant like Ryan Vogelsong wouldn't even listen to such an offer. Anywhere else and Brian Wilson goes instantly into the Giants-Marketing Hall of Fame.
ReplyDeleteWhy doe the D-Backs seem to want to flip Upton so readily? He's young and has an unreal ceiling. Is he a low character guy? I thought that was more the MO of the other Upton.
Freddy was a great Giant. Bummer he just couldn't make it back... He's an example of pure heart and determination going out there and making it happen - a reminder that telling your kids "they can do whatever they want if they put their heart into it" isn't a total lie.
I like where our team is at. If we miss out on Pagan, maybe this will be like 2011 and we re-load, re-tool for 2014?
I think some people are mistaken about what we have. Even if we lose Pagan, I expect big strides from Belt and Crawford and if Pablo can stay healthy, we still have a pretty darn good lineup. No need to break the bank, I say stand pat and spend it for a mega-star after Zito's deal expires.
I don't think the D'Backs are all that anxious to trade Upton. I think they feel they need to upgrade several areas and if they can get multiple high ceiling, inexpensive, MLB ready prospects in a deal for Upton, it's a way to leverage talent into even more talent. It will take an overwhelming offer to pry Upton loose from the D'Backs.
DeleteAgree with pretty much everything else you said here. I expect offensive progress from Belt and Crawford and I think a huge season from Pablo is not a pipedream.
DrB,
DeleteObviously this is a lot of projection and guesswork, but is there a big-name player that will be a FA after this coming season? My theory is pretty straightforward: we won with pitching, we should hold our dough, wait for Zito to expire and then... wait for it... spend our money on more pitching. Obviously Posey will have to be extended at some point, but is there any FA pitching after 2013 that you would have your eye on? Do you think Sabes can count on pulling a rabbit out of the hat with the filler-bullpen guys every year?
A lot of questions here for a progressing, improving "real" fan. The calls to spend a lot of money on Angel Pagan, who really is just a little above-average CF IMO just doesn't make sense, especially because in the last 7 or 8 years we have an awful track record of overpaying position guys like Rowand and Huff, but more so because this team has won on great pitching when it matters.
Anon,
DeleteI hear what you are saying. Just don't see that as the future of how to build a MLB team. MLB Trade Rumors, linked over on the left, has a list of projected 2014 FA's. It's a fairly uninspiring list. I'd say the top name is Robinson Cano by a pretty big margin. Difference making free agents will become more and more scarce as more teams have the money to lock up their homegrown stars.
The only way to get impact talent is going to be to scout, draft/sign and develop well and then make trades for what you can't develop from within. FA's will be for filling in the blanks with role players.
I think it may be better for the giants to stay in house for pitching, because that is where they have really excelled. I wouldn't be shocked to see Tim Lincecum being the biggest pitcher available next offseason. Hopefully either Mike Kickham or Chris Heston develops into an mlb ready, back or middle of the rotation starting pitcher. For 2014 or 2015 I would like to see guys like Clayton Blackburn, Kyle crick and Chris stratton being ready for their big league assignments. And, as far as the bullpen goes I think we could see both Heath Hembree and Brett Bochy being factors at the big leagues next year
DeleteI also wouldn't be surprised to see Eric Surkamp. He had tommy john surgery late in 2012 but you never know
This link has all of the 2014 free agents. It does have some interesting ones like Roy Halladay, James Shields, and Johan Santana. Also Barry Zito has a vesting option if he reaches 200 IP in 2013, which is a definite possibility considering the fact that he pitched 199 in 2010 and 184 in 2012.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/2014-mlb-free-agents.html
I don't think it is a matter of Arizona wanting to flip Upton, it is more to see if any team is willing to overpay to get him from the D-backs.
DeleteThe thing to me is that they were not as good as 2011 nor as bad as 2012. They were like 10 games over .500 in one-run games in 2011, then like 10 games under in 2012. Put them at .500 for each season and that puts them roughly in the 85-89 win range both years, which is not good enough to win the division title, generally, and getting into the wild card play-in situation is not the ideal thing to do now. They need to make a jump in talent to get into serious contention at some point.
That leap would have been their good pitching prospects, but maybe they feel that they are not as good as most thought they were before the 2012 season, so flipping Upton now could yield that bounty of prospects and talent infusion. On top of that, his salary will escalate in the next two years to $14M, not really cheap anymore for a mid-tier revenue team. Selling off three years control is a very valuable item to other teams, and they would be willing to play big for that. And frankly, he hasn't been THAT great a player, good certainly, but also up and down, two of the last three seasons were relatively ordinary, though still good.
And it is not like they will be giving him away, he would need to be blown away to be enticed to trade him away. And they do have a good replacement in Parra should they be able to find a desperate sucker willing to part with a lot of prospects for Upton. So they are trading from strength, and frankly, he's the main star to trade to get that big bundle of prospects that they need to compete with the nice set of pitchers that they have been collecting. Particularly since the new team would have Upton for 3 years.
And given that there are a lot of teams searching for CF help, he might get lucky, one team would be left with no great option for CF and then might succumb to trading a lot of prospects to the D-backs. I wouldn't be surprised if they might keep that door open for mid-season as well as next off-season.
Thanks for your comments guys, great to dive deeper into this stuff and think it through!
DeleteThe variables on Wilson are what make this an interesting scenario.
ReplyDeleteSecond TJ surgery top the list, of course. But then there's more.
Timing: Sounds like he is rehabbing slowly, bringing up the question of just how much an ultimately recovered Wilson can pitch in 2013.
Effect: He simply was not nearly as effective in 2011 as 2010. My belief is that he almost completely stopped throwing his slider in 2011. Devastating pitch, and he scraps it? Why? Whatever blew out in 2012, was wearing down in 2011, and Wilson knew. So, the question is not just will he be able to pitch again, but also will he be able to pitch like 2010 again. Almost certainly, no.
The circus: His act simply won't play in some organizations and some communities. His options are somewhat limited.
This is a business decision. By the Giants. But also by Wilson. His acting offended, very publicly, is going to affect his future prospects.
I'm still hopeful that Wilson sees what the market has to offer (which, if Ned doesn't get involved, should be sparse), and then comes back and plays nice with the Giants on a decent incentive deal. Its really in his interest. And if he pitched 2010-style, he WILL end up the closer.
As it is, can anyone see a team handing a pitcher in Wilson situation a closer job when he likely won't be on the field opening day? And with all the question marks once he gets there?
Yeah, your take is pretty much right on. Short of Ned Colletti wanting to embarrass the Giants and willing to spend crazy amounts of money to do it, I just don't see Wilson getting anything more than what the Giants appear to be willing to offer him. If there is someone else out there willing to give him more, let them take that risk.
DeleteFrom Wilson's standpoint, if he can get a great deal out there, more power to him. He should definitely take it. For him to not listen to a Giants offer just because he's sore over being non-tendered would be poor business decision on his part.
MLBTR is sounding like the Phillies are going hard after Pagan. I like Pagan but he's not worth getting into a bidding war over. If the Phillies want to overpay, move on the plan B.
DeleteThe rumor I saw somewhere, probably there, is that the Phillies are thinking 3-4 years and the Giants are the only other team to make some sort of offer to him so far. Probably something will happen by the Winter Meetings, and if the Phillies go 4 years, I think Pagan is gone. Thanks but no thanks, I think we'll be OK, though obviously better with him than not.
DeleteIf the TJ II doesn't work out, then Wilson can become the Giants official team mascot. Lou Seal, move over. Crazy Crab, grab some pine crab meat. The Beard is in the House!!! Fear The Beard is the best mascot slogan, hands down, ever.
ReplyDeleteCome on Wilson will make more $$$ pitching The Beard mascot then he ever would pitching the ball. Certainly easier on his elbow. And he can still get on with Amy G.
All good, Fear The Beard, not the ball.
On the non-tendered list... How about Brandon Snyder?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=snyder002bra
He's only 26. RH hitter, he can play 1B in a pinch. Maybe be the backup Catcher emergency guy instead of Pablo. His power never really materialized, he's more of a doubles hitter. But he might be a very cheap dovetail for Blanco in LF if we can figure out CF. I just like the former top pick status and his relative yoot.
Is Snyder ready for LF? Looks like he got in 4 games for a total of 3 chances in the minors, and then the 10 games in the OF in the Bigs for Texas this year (4 starts and only once for a CG). Or for emergency catcher? Last real time he spent behind the dish was 2006 in A (besides getting into one game in 2011 at AAA and another with Texas in 2012). He's got 81 games total at catcher. Pablo has 100 more games at catcher and more recently (2007 in A+). I think the Giants can do a lot better. Now if the Gizzlies need a right handed 1st baseman, and the Giants want to stash him in the organization - I don't think gathering former prospects is a bad idea. Looking at his B-R page, I doubt Snyder gets a major league deal from anyone.
DeleteI doubt he'll get a major league deal as well. He hunted for a position, ended up at 1B. I don't think LF is a stretch. The emergency catcher was a lil tongue in cheek - how many times did Pablo don the tools of ignorance last year?
DeleteThe Giants might be able to do better, but one thing about all these scrapheaps that comes up a lot, you have to start with high talent. Arias was high talent, Vogelsong was considered one of the best arms in the system along with Nathan per Raggs, that type of thing. Blanco might not have been a top prospect, but he brings plus speed and plus defense. This catcher they just signed was a top 100 BA guy, etc.
Any thoughts on adding Ichiro to the outfield? Obviously he still has some speed in the OF to offer and has contact skills at the plate. Might be able to platoon the hot hand between Ichiro and Blanco without breaking the bank or burying Brown if he ends up being ready earlier than we think...
ReplyDeleteI would be OK with Ichiro on a 1 or at most 2 year deal.
Delete