DrB's 2013 Giants Top 50 Prospects #12: Ricky Oropesa

Ricky Oropesa, 1B.  DOB:  12/15/1989.  6'3", 225 lbs.  B-L, T-R.

High A:  .263/.338/.425, 30 2B, 3 3B, 16 HR, 10.1% BB, 25.7% K.
AFL:      .234/.373/.362, 2 HR, 18.6% BB, 27.1% K.

First the obligatory disclosure.  I have never claimed to be in unbiased reporter in any of my writings, but I work with Ricky's mom and have followed his career closely since he was a junior in HS, so I am particularly biased in regards to him.  You can take my opinions for what they are worth and certainly have a right to hold and express your own, in a constructive way, of course.

Brian Sabean has been vocal in the last few years that he does not think the Giants will be able to convince power hitters to come to SF as free agents, so they will have to draft and develop their own.  Since the arrival of John Barr as scouting director, the Giants have followed a now familiar pattern of drafting up-the-middle players in round 1 and then look for at least one power hitter in the next 2-3 rounds.  The result has been a modest infusion of prospects with potential to develop into MLB power hitters, but who also have some flaws that could derail those efforts.  It appears the hope is by adding 1-2 per draft, 1 or 2 will eventually make it.

Ricky Oropesa may be the most promising of these players currently in the Giants system.  He has a pedigree, coming out of a Pac 10 program, a conference that tends to be known more for it's pitching and plays at a very high level.  In addition to his power, Ricky has also shown solid plate discipline and the ability to take walks.  The Giants challenged him by assigning him to high A San Jose for his first professional experience and he responded with a successful season finishing just behind the more experienced Adam Duvall in RBI's with 99.  The Giants rewarded him with an assignment to the Arizona Fall League, a league generally reserved for top prospects with AA and AAA experience.   Again, he hit a couple of HR's and drew a lot of walks.

A lot of people have focused on a relatively low BA and his strikeout rate and consigned his 2012 season to the failure bin.  I beg to differ for the following reasons:

1.  As I already mentioned, high A ball is an aggressive placement for even a college draftee's first professional experience.

2.  While the Cal League is a hitters league overall, San Jose is no better than neutral and specifically suppresses LH power due to what I have read is a prevailing headwind from RF.

3.  Selective hitters are going to have higher strikeout rates precisely because they go deeper into counts and you can't get to strike 3 without getting to strike 2 first!  It's really a very simple mathematical concept that the "OBP is Everything" crowd generally does not comprehend.  They can't have it both ways.  If they want higher walk rates, they have to be willing to accept the higher K rates that go along with it.  The same mathematical dynamic also suppresses BA's as the walks do nothing to help your BA but the K's make it harder due to the necessity of generating a higher BABIP.  OK, maybe if you are more selective, you will hit better pitches and have a higher BABIP, but it seldom works out that way.  Also, it's mighty tough to get a good pitch to hit with 2 strikes.

Having said all that, I do think Ricky may need to become a bit less selective at the plate in order to cut down on a pretty steep K rate, but a change in approach carries risks too and he might be better off being a 3 true outcomes guy.  But, it doesn't really matter what I think, now, does it?  Here's some quotes from Fred Stanley in his recent interview with Joe Ritzo on sjgiants.com:

"Ricky is a big strong kid.  He was starting to figure out how they were pitching him.  He had a pretty solid year.  I think if you asked him, he'll tell you he'd like to cut down on his strikouts a little bit.  But when you're a strong guy and have the opportunity to hit 30 home runs, you're going to strikeout some.  He learned a little bit about himself this year."

"Oropesa is learning to play first base.  There are a lot of things going on with your footwork around the bag.  J.T. Snow, Will Clark, Russ Morman have been working with him.  He's received a lot of instruction.  Every time he came out on the field during (fall) instructional league, he had an assignment on what we were working on for that day....That would have been tough during the regular season because you're playing 150 games and travelling.  You don't want to wear everyone out.  Instructional league was a time where we really bore down on him and he made really good progress."

AA is Ricky's probable assignment for 2013. It will be a very big challenge, especially in those first 1-2 months when the weather is still cold and he faces a lot of pitchers with way more professional experience.  What he has to do, in my mind, is keep his head above water and show improvement.  He's not young for his level but he's not old either.  If he simply keeps his head above water, he has time to build on that in 2014.  Hopefully he does a lot better than that!