Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Down on the Farm: 2010 Giants Top 50 Prospect Review- #28 Kevin Pucetas; #29 Joe Paterson; #30 Brock Bond

#28 Kevin Pucetas, RHP. AAA: 5-7, 5.69, 136 IP, 61 BB, 95 K's, GO/AO= 1.09.

Kevin Pucetas failed to completely recover from his late season collapse in 2009. He pitched well in 2010 spring training, but again got worse as the season went along. He was always a fairly low-ceiling guy despite pitching well at lower levels and even at AAA level early in 2009, but at this point he is probably a longshot at ever having a significant MLB career. He was traded to the KC Royals after the season as the PTBNL for Jose Guillen. KC has a ton of excellent pitching prospects coming along, but maybe there is a window in 2011 during which Kevin can gain a toehold in the majors.

#29 Joe Paterson, LHP. A+: 1-0, 0.82, 11 IP, 2 BB, 15 K's, GO/AO= 3.25. AAA: 4-3, 3.48, 54.1 IP, 24 BB, 49 K's, GO/AO= 1.56. AFL: 0-0, 2.25, 12 IP, 2 BB, 14 K's, GO/AO= 4.00.

Paterson has put up great looking numbers ever since being drafted in round 10 in 2007 out of Oregon State. I was surprised when the Giants left him unprotected in the 2010 Rule 5 draft, electing instead to keep Alex Hinshaw on the 40 man roster. Sure enough, the D'Backs grabbed him. Paterson will probably never be more than a lefthanded option out of the bullpen, but I expect him to make the D'Backs 25 man roster out of spring training and stick through the season. If that happens, he's a D'Back! Were he to return to the Giants, he would be stuck behind Affeldt, Lopez, Dan Runzler and apparently Alex Hinshaw in the organizational depth chart for LH relief pitchers.

#30 Brock Bond, 2B. AAA: .285/.397/.372, 9 SB, 4 CS. AA: .261/.320/.370.

Brock Bond has developed something of a cult following among Giants prospect watchers on the internet, mainly because he has always put up excellent OBP's. Many sites had him ranked a lot higher than #30. Unfortunately, he doesn't have a whole lot else going for him than OBP, no power, little speed, poor range, weak arm. The Giants sent a loud message that they regard him as an organizational player when they sent him down to AA so a parade of other players could get time at 2B in Fresno. For those of you who like to dream, Bond could turn into a switch-hitting version of David Eckstein, but at this point he is near the back of a long line in the Giants organizational depth chart at 2B.

7 comments:

  1. Of course the Giants rate Hinshaw higher? Didn't they draft him, like 4 times before he finally signed with them?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Something like that. The Giants seem to really, really like Alex Hinshaw. I'm guessing he throws harder than Joe Paterson and the Giants seem to have become very velocity oriented in their pitching evaluation. Can't argue with the results!

    ReplyDelete
  3. At the same time, if they decided to go with Paterson, they would have DEFINITELY lost Hinshaw and kept Paterson. By staying with Hinshaw, they DEFINITELY keep Hinshaw, and possibly keep Paterson.

    Game theory dictates they made the right move.

    ReplyDelete
  4. CSS,

    Not necessarily. Had they dropped Hinshaw and exposed him to waivers, it's possible nobody would have claimed him and then nobody would have taken him in the Rule 5 draft. I'm not criticizing the Giants move. They've earned the benefit of the doubt for the time being. I'm just saying it was interesting, and to me bit surprising.

    ReplyDelete
  5. But they may still be able to keep Paterson. He needs to stay on the 25-man (or DL) the entire season, or be traded to the 'Backs, or they get him back.

    Regardless, losing either of them is not earth-shattering...

    ReplyDelete
  6. Between Hinshaw and Peterson, Hinshaw at least exhibits a strong skill: enough stuff to strike out a lot of hitters, even though he is 28 and Paterson 25 for next season.

    Peterson in AAA walked way too much (4.0 BB/9) and barely struck out enough to make him useful in AAA, which meant not enough for MLB, when you look at his MLE. To make the majors, he'll probably have to drop his walk rate in AAA to below 2.5 BB/9 as well as drop his 9.1 H/9 (meaning becoming a crafty lefty who can do all of that). He was able to do that in AA but not in AAA.

    But he is still on 25, he could develop further and figure it out in AAA, but then he would have to take the next leap to make the majors. Lots of development he needs to do to make majors.

    Unfortunately for him, guys like him are a dime a dozen, many prospects fizzle out when they reach AA or AAA and never make it. But he's close enough that you want to give him that chance.

    However, when you got a guy like Hinshaw with stuff like that, who just needs to control and command his pitches better to make the majors, he's more valuable, in my opinion, than Paterson. Some pitchers, particularly lefties, figure out that last bit later in their 20's but Paterson needs control as well as an out pitch: not impossible, but again, not as likely as Hinshaw to figure it out as his necessary climb will be more.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Looking at Bond's numbers, what I'm seeing is someone a step behind Emmanuel Burriss. They both control their bats well, don't strike out much, both don't hit for much power.

    Bond is much better at gaining walks in the minors, but that advantage should narrow in the majors. Burriss, however, is excellent defensively and can play SS if necessary, giving him much higher utility value than Bond.

    And that is the key there, I believe, neither are sure fire starters in the majors, but both has utility value in their bats. However, being limited to 2B and not playing that position especially well, he provides no positional value nor defensive value. Plus Burriss is a burner while Bond is not, another area of value.

    All that is part of the reason why I didn't understand why so many fans were so interested in him: a guy with high OBP is nice but if he can't hit for any power, nor steal to leverage that OBP ability, and can't play well defensively, nor play multiple positions, he's most probably not going to make the majors, period.

    Burriss has been borderline for the majors because of his inability to hit for power, despite his good control of the bat, his plus plus speed, and excellent defensive ability at 2B. What did that make Bond?

    ReplyDelete