#10 Francisco Peguero. A+ .329/.358/.488 10 HR, 16 3B, 19 2B, 40 SB, 22 CS. in 510 AB's
Well, now that the Cliff Lee furor has started to die down, maybe we can get back to looking at prospects. Francisco Peguero had another stellar season for San Jose on the heels of a combined .353 BA over two levels in 2009. He showed a progression of power with 16 triples vs 5 and 10 HR's vs just 1. Peguero is your classic "tools" player with great "projectability." I saw Peguero 4 times this year and really liked what I saw. He's very athletic looking and has a bone structure that looks like it can still support at least 10-20 lbs more weight and still be athletic looking. I would estimate that the power progression will continue as he fills out that frame. He will need that power. Whlle he can play CF, he played mostly RF for SJ as Juan Perez was apparently the superior defensive CF. In Peguero's favor, he did display enough arm for RF. He's got plenty of speed as you can see from all the triples, and SB's, but he needs to work on being a smarter basestealer as you can see from too many CS. His other main fault is a persistant unwillingness to take walks. That won't matter as long as he can hit .329 or more, but may become a problem as the pitching gets better at higher levels. I'm thinking this guy may actually not be a leadoff hitter though. After he fills out and his power is fully developed I could easily see him hitting in the 3 hole. He will likely move up into the top 5 Giants prospects on the 2011 list. One tough question will be his relative placement vs Gary Brown who is a very similar player.
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Even if Juan Perez is the better defender, if you think Peguero will be the CF in SF eventually, wouldn't you develop him as a CF rather than a RF? I am rather surprised by the power number that Peguero had this year. I think the Giants' may actually think that he'll be in RF. Brown then, would remain in CF.
ReplyDeleteTaking Peguero 2.0 and Peguero 3.0 with the first 2 picks in the draft this year always puzzled me. What is your take on the strategy behind those picks?
ReplyDeletecal -
ReplyDeleteI was thinking the exact same thing. Maybe the Giants really are just drafting who they think to be the top talent available?
From what I have read, I am under the impression that Brown is a pure centerfielder, (a very good one defensively as well) and that Parker is more of a corner outfielder (possibly RF). They may not be the same type of player that Peguero is or may become. In any case, an outfield comprised of some combination of Brown in CF, Peguero/Parker in RF and Neal/Parker/Peguero in LF figures to be as good a defensive OF as we have seen in SF in a while.
ReplyDeleteHey team!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comments and questions.
Just a guess, but I'm thinking the Giants see Peguero as a guy who will develop enough power, and has a good enough arm to play RF in the majors. I am quite sure at this point that Brown is the CF of the future until he proves he can't cut it.
As for drafting similar players, for equal talent I would have liked to see the Giants draft a pitcher either #1 or 2, but I'll guess the Giants saw Brown and Parker as the BPA's. Their strategy was probably correct in that Rosin and Kickham appear to be every bit as good as the available pitchers late in the first and second rounds while Brown and Parker would undoubtedly be gone by the 3'rd and 4'th rounds.
On the other hand, the Padres got a guy in round 5, Rico Noel, who I like almost as well as Brown.
There are almost endless ways of analyzing it.
Keith Law had this to say in his chat ( http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/36040/mlb-insider-keith-law ):
ReplyDeleteJosh G (Sacramento)
Is one of Gary Brown, Jarrett Parker, or Francisco Peguero good enough to be the Giants CF of the future?
Klaw (12:59 PM)
Brown. Peguero's interesting but raw. Never liked Parker's swing.
I know this is about Peguero, but I really like Brown a lot. His 2010 season performance was the best in the Big West conference over the past 7 seasons, and much better than his teammate Colon, who was drafted much higher (though partly because he agreed to sign for less and quickly, I heard). His battling line - and ISO amazingly - was even better than what Evan Longoria put up in the same conference on the same team in his last college season. Only Longoria, Kurt Suzuki, his teammate Colon, and Kyle Blumenthal (who fizzled out in minors). And Brown had the best bat control of all the hitters, striking out the least. And he has gold glove potential to boot.
Back to Peguero, he didn't really do that well for SJ. Good, mind you, but not like major league path good, he'll have to prove himself at each level. Particularly since he was 22 YO in A+, that's the average age there, basically (he's slightly young for CAL). If I remember right, the Giants were really touting him last spring, have to think that his move to RF was also motivated by thought that he could be a good OF off the bench, speed, bat control, should he not develop much more. His discipline at the plate is good though, not striking out a whole bunch, so if he can take more walks, he wuld be an ideal leadoff hitter, though as noted, he really needs to work on his base-stealing techniques, but he was good lower in the minors, percentage-wise, so maybe he just needs some more teaching and development.
Oh, the list of players are those who hit over 1000 OPS in Big West in past 7 seasons.
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