The Padres today did what they had been threatening to do for some time now, traded Adrian Gonzalez to the Boston Red Sox for 3 prospects and the proverbial PTBNL. For the last 2-3 years, AGone was the one and only player in the Padres lineup to give opposing pitchers cause for concern. Not that he was as good as Barry Bonds, but it was a similar situation in that AGone really stood out in that lineup, just head and shoulders above everybody else. Last year seemed like a bit of a down year for Gonzalez, but even then, his line of .298/.393/.511 with 31 HR's was stellar, especially considering his home park, Petco, is easily the toughest in baseball for hitters. The second highest HR total on the team belonged to Ryan Ludwick with 17 and only 6 of those were hit as a Padre. To put it simply, the Padres lineup without Adrian Gonzalez is a wasteland! It is easily the worst in baseball.
Gonzalez was not going to be a Padre past 2011. Padres management had a meeting with his agents and concluded that they would not be able to sign him to an affordable contract extension. That put the Padres in a bind. After all, they only missed the playoffs by 2 games in 2010. Do they make another run while Gonzalez is still inexpensive and then lose him to free agency, or do they get what they can for him now? Obviously, the Padres decided they could get more now. Part of what may have driven this is the soon to expire agreement with the Player's Association. It is widely assumed that the next agreeement will significantly change free agent compensation if not eliminate it entirely.
So, let's look at what the Padres got in return for their star player:
1. Casey Kelly, RHP. Kelly is a former first round draft pick who has vacillated between shortstop and pitching. Finally committed to pitching full time in 2010, he had a rough time of AA ball posting a 5.31 ERA. In his favor are peripheral stats that look much better, age of 20 in AA ball and good scouting reports. He reportedly has a fastball that goes 88-93 MPH plus a decent curveball and changeup. He is a groundball pitcher, but his groundball rate has diminished at higher levels. Kelly is a good prospect, though not great. He is highly unlikely to pitch in the majors in 2011 and one has to wonder how he will fare in the PCL. He will likely have a major league career of some sort, but is not a slam dunk major leaguer let alone a sure thing to be a star.
2. Anthony Rizzo, 1B- Rizzo played in A+ and AA at age 20. He showed excellent power hitting 25 HR's between two levels. He does have contact issues though and hit just .248 and .263 with K rates of 27.4% and 24.2%. Again, Rizzo won't be replacing AGone at first base in 2011 and is not a lock to ever stick as a major leaguer, especially in Petco with power being his only real tool.
3. Reymond Fuentes, OF- First round draft choice in 2009 out of Puerto Rico. Fuentes' main asset is speed, something the Padres seem to be intent on acquiring more of. He was 19 years old last year in low A ball putting up a line of .270/.328/.377 with 42 SB's in 47 tries. Fuentes has a chance to possibly become Juan Pierre with slightly more power, but it will not likely be soon if ever.
4. PTBNL- Word is it will not be a highly ranked prospect.
If I'm a Padres fan, I have to be disappointed with the return for AGone. Padres GM Jed Hoyer worked for the BoSox before taking the Padres job. You have to wonder if he is overvaluing these prospects because he is familiar with them. It just seems like when you trade a player of AGone's caliber, even if he is only low cost for one more season, you have to get at least one player who is ready to contribute right away, maybe a Jed Lowrie or at least a grade A prospect.
I know the Padres performed a lot better than most people, including me, thought they would last year, but Adrian Gonzalez was a huge part of that. Without him, the Padres are little better than a AAA team, even with a couple of fine young starting pitchers in their rotation.
Addendum: Apparently the trade is contingent upon the Red Sox and Gonzalez agreeing on a contract extension. I would assume that the BoSox are fairly confident they can get this done. It is not a well kept secret what AGone's expectations are, Ryan Howard's contract seems to be the starting point for the discussion. Not many teams out there who are both in need of a first baseman and have the jack to sign such a contract. That may have played a role in suppressing his trade value.
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Kelly and Rizzo are good prospects. And that has nothing to do with me picking them in my former keeper league. :^)
ReplyDeleteKelly wanted to be a SS so BoSox allowed him to play both but he just couldn't hit, but was very good as a pitcher. I would rely more on peripherals with him, particularly given his age. But what was his FIP, I would have a better feel for how he did by that.
Rizzo was considered a pretty good hitter by BA, which led me to draft him. He had a down year in 2009 but 2010 was a better one.
Still, I agree, it is a bad trade in that for someone like A-Gon, you would think they would have gotten one pretty good prospect in the bunch, at least pick up Bucholz.
And I do know Bucholz is MLB, just I would have wanted him.
ReplyDeleteHey, bad for SD, good for SF! :^)
I think one thing SD is hoping is that Blanks is ready I 2011, and so thus they can wait. Still, look at what the Red Sox gave up to Florida, and hay still had to take Lowell's bad contract on top of that. Hoyer is, to me, making a make or break decision here. He obviously see more in Kelly and Rizzo than others. I put this up there with Sabean's trade o Matt Williams,but unless they turn out pretty good, he is going to look pretty bad. Again good for SF.
The Padres got screwed in this one. If I remember correctly, there were rumors that a Matt Cain/Prince Fielder deal was on a couple years back. A-Gon, in my opinion is better than Fielder (Gold Glove 1B), but the Padres got much less than Matt Cain caliber. Maybe if they received these 3 plus a big leaguer?
ReplyDeleteSay, sorry, cannot link, but Baseball America has a nice description of all the players they got, and tha key seems to be that they are great defenders while hitting OK. I am feeling better in terms of what they got, but they appear to feel the same way about their staff and 2010's close call, that they were lucky and headed for regression, and so they traded for guys who could pay off in the future. Rizzo could make team mid-season with good first half too, incase Blanks fail.
ReplyDeleteI know batting average is considered a passe' stat, but I tend to be very skeptical of a minor leaguer who can't maintain a BA of at least .280. I prefer .300+, but .280 is really the lower limit for me. I reallly question whether a hitter can maintain a BA above .220 in the majors if he can't keep it above .280 in the minors. There are a few power hitters who can maintain a decent OBP/OPS with low BA's but they are not real common. That's my problem with Rizzo.
ReplyDeleteI would definitely not write off Rizzo as a future impact pitcher, but there's probably more to an ERA of almost 6 than just bad luck
Anyway, this all improves the Giants chances of getting back to the playoffs in 2011 which is good with me.
OK, here is the link: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/trade-central/2010/2611015.html
ReplyDeleteI totally understand your position DrB. On Kelly, I think the hope is that now that he's concentrating only on pitching that his development, which was retarded by his desire to play SS, would accelerate. As a 21 YO in AA, one would expect some level of ownage by the older hitters and lack of development due to lack of focus (supposedly that would help Wendell Farley too, focusing on CF, but that hasn't really paid off yet).
And it's not like I think that he's going to be on our staff's level, but I think he'll be above average, given age and ability to strike out batters. He needs to get walks down and I think being focused on pitching will help.
Also, his main problem was giving up way too many hits, despite the strikeouts, which means high BABIP. But yeah, where there's smoke, there's fire, so maybe he's one of those who give up a lot of hits and thus never make majors.
I think same with Rizzo. He's not going to be a star player like A-Gon, but he could be above average WAR with strong defense and hitting a little above average in general, with his power and high walks. Also, again, only 21 and playing in AA against much older, he should catch up as he gets older. But yeah, low BA is a strong warning sign that he still has some ways to go.
Fuentes is also not that bad a prospect, also strong defense and BA likes his line drive stroke that they think will lead to more pop once he fills out (only 19).
Again, it goes back to Hoyer making the bet that they can make that leap. Too many question marks probably to most people, though BA likes it because they are top prospects in Boston's farm right now. At least they got that, for McGriff, they didn't get any of Atlanta's Top TEN prospects, if I remember right.
Ideally, they should have dealt A-Gon in the last off-season, he had 2 years and would be worth more to another team, and at worse, mid-season, but what type of message would it have been to do that while leading NL West, so they were forced to keep him.
And as you said, good for Giants to get back in playoffs in 2011.
Fangraphs also had a nice overview of deal: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/san-diego-nabs-3-top-10-prospects/
ReplyDeleteAnd here is BA rundown: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/trade-central/2010/2611015.html
I see your position DrB. I don't think BA is passe, it is now just as underrated by sabers as OBP was before by non-sabers. It seems like people are only happy with either/or when it is more a somewhere in the middle thing. See how Brown was universally maligned for his inability to take walks in 2010? They forget about all the hits he got, and also failed to see that when he wasn't hitting in his freshman year, he was all about the walks. The main conclusion I got is that Brown knows his value comes from getting on base, and he will adjust to enable that.
Yeah, the hope for both Rizzo and Kelly is that they were only 21 playing in AA, a league where most players are 3-4 years older and experienced than they are, particularly Kelly, who was pitching full-time for the first time. And Fuentes did OK for 19 YO in low-A. I think neither will be much of a hitter but the strong defense they have will make up a lot of their value on the field.
well, unless black can work miracles, the friars will not be competing for the div title this season
ReplyDeleteAOL Fanhouse had this about the prospects: http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/12/06/prospects-casey-kelly-reymond-fuentes-anthony-rizzo-brett-law/
ReplyDelete