Sunday, December 5, 2010

Down on the Farm: 2010 Giants Top 50 Prospect Review- #5 Rafael Rodriguez

#5 Rafael Rodriguez Short Season: .163/.250/.209 43 AB's. Rookie: .301/.323/.398 with 2 HR's 123 AB's.

RafRod, as he has become known among Giants prospect watchers, was a bit of a mixed bag in his second professional season after signing a 7 figure bonus as a 16 year old in 2008. He started the season in Salem-Keizer playing against mostly college draftees in either their first or second years of professional experience. He as overmatched, although in a very small sample size. He went on the DL with a back strain and resurfaced in Arizona back in Rookie ball. He hit .301 including .342 over his last 10 games, and hit a couple of HR's compared to zero in 2009. He failed to show the strike zone control from 2009 as he struck out 23 times against just 5 BB's. He has drawn some criticism in the blogosphere, particularly from a guy who goes by the handle of fla-giant who has completely written him off as a prospect and made comments like he is "dead to me." RafRod has always been labeled as a raw talent, but fla-giant has criticized him for lack of athleticism and weak musculature. This is a theme that has been picked up on some other Giants oriented websites and the herd mentality has taken hold. RafRod has been all but written off as a prospect in some circles.

I'm not ready to jump on that bandwagon just yet. I'll just make a few points in rebuttal:

1. RafRod just turned 18 yo in mid-season which means this would likely have been just drafted out of high school had he been from the USA, and quite possibly would not be seeing his first professional action until next season. Seems like that's awfully early to be writing off a prospect who just hit .300 in an age appropriate league.

2. I've never seen RafRod play in person, nor are there more than the sketchiest of scouting reports available, at least that I've been able to find. I have seen pictures of him in action posted on azgiants.com and I found a couple of videos of him on youtube that I'll post here. I'm not a scout, but he looks athletic to me. Yeah, he's a bit on the lanky side, but at age 17 or 18, you want to see some room for filling out the frame. Not to disparage Chuckie Jones as a prospect, but I would be more worried about a kid built like that, with absolutely no room to fill out than I would a lanky kid like RafRod.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0rduqMrKil

www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdU8PCMPl3o

(hope I have those right, if not, just google video for Rafael Rodriguez Giants).

3. Fla-giants has made some pretty bold statements, but I have not seen any basis for why he is making them. Is it based on his personal observation? Scouting reports he has read? One source that think is reasonably reliable and knowledgeable is John Klima of baseballbeginnings.com. He made a scouting trip to the Arizona Instructional League this fall and mentioned RafRod as one of 3 prospects who impressed him, specifically mentioning his tools and projection. I will be interested to see what Andy Baggerly has to say when he writes up his Giants Top 30 Prospects list for BA. He gets most of his info from talking to Giants coaches and player development people. Until then, I'll go with Klima's observations.

I'm not sure exactly where I'm going to rank RafRod in my 2011 list. Based on performance at essentially the same age, I'd have to rank him behind Chuckie Jones, but I have questions about Jones' body long term. I actually like a kid with RafRod's build better in the long run. I could see RafRod dropping a few notches behind Jones, Culberson, Tommy Joseph and a few others. I still think he is top 10-15 at the least, and that has more to do with others moving up than RafRod moving down in my estimation. I would think he should be assigned to Augusta in 2011 where he would be playing with and against a higher percentage of kids close to his age than in the Northwest League.

What do you think?

6 comments:

  1. I had a similar argument with someone way back when regarding Ishikawa: basically wrote him off - said that Giants should just DFA him - while promoting Vericker and Columbus as better prospects long term. If people knew he had said this, nobody would go to his website.

    RafRod is 18 YO. Way too early to be writing him off, the only way I would be writing off someone this young is if he was Marlon Brando or Orson Welles sized (late in life versions). Yes, I can accept him dropping, for the reasons DrB gave, that it is more other rose and/or were acquired than anything drastic that RafRod did.

    I still have high hopes for him. Ron Shandler feels that once a player exhibits a skill, he owns it, he just needs to figure out how to show that skill again. RafRod showed some skills in 2009 that were good, and as DrB astutely pointed out, hit .300 in an age appropriate league in 2010, which is a good skill as well.

    He's only 18. It is not like he suddenly collapsed in performance in 2010, which would be a good reason to think that maybe he's not all that. He is probably still filling out and will add power as he does. Even if he doesn't, he was playing against college-aged players in Salem, imagine if you were playing much older players back when you were younger, wouldn't it make sense that they would dominate you? Aside from weight, there is no good reason to give up on a prospect that scouts thought was a 5-tool player. Lots of stupid reasons though, particularly since it does not cost you anything to keep him in your farm system for a few more years, their salary is a pittance, even if he was that bad, you hold onto him and see if you can change him around.

    But if he's hitting .300 in any professional league at age 18, that's still a good accomplishment.

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  2. ^ Funny, I use to always go to your site after googling Ishikawa while he was stuck in AA.

    As far as Raf-Rod, if he repeats A ball and A+ ball (4 years), he'll still reach AA the same age as Peguero is now. While Peguero is a toolsy guy with a great work ethic, Rafrod is a million-dollar tools guy, with maybe an 18 y.o work ethic (and body).

    Point is, as you both said, he still has a ton of time, so even a "bad" short season shouldn't make him a non-prospect.

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  3. OGC: your reference to Marlon Brando and Orson Welles reminded me of my reaction to seeing a picture of Pablo Sandoval for the first time, so maybe even THAT is not a reason to give up on a kid! LOL!

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  4. RaRod (rhymes better) certainly needs to drop on our lists; I think the question is simply "How much?"

    As enwrit says above, RaRod appears to have a somewhat questionable approach/attitude. Of course, people do change at age 18 or after, but that isn't common. In his case, assuming his potential is as high as people claimed, I think attitude is paramount. I'm waiting to see/hear about an improvement in this area.

    And then, we've got several intriguing prospects that (imho) have to be ranked higher at this moment: Belt, Wheeler, BCrawford, Neal, Kickham, Hembree, Rosin, Kieschnick, and Stoffel - just off the top of my head. And then the next tier of players: Peguero, Runzler, Dominguez, Joseph, MGraham, Ford, Noonan, Culberson, Gillaspie, JCPerez, Tanner, Adrianza, CJones, JParker, GBrown (in whatever order). I don't say RaRod belongs behind all those guys, just that a case can be made that RaRod is perhaps somewhere between #10 and #25.

    Naturally, I'd be thrilled if he turned out to be a perennial All-Star. But I just can't put him very high on my next list - yet.

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  5. Lyle,

    Can you point me to any source of info that says he has a questionable approach/attitude. Not saying it's not true, but sometimes these things get started by someone on the internet who says something they've come up with in their head and pretty soon everybody is parroting the same thing and the next thing you know it's a proven fact. I have looked and looked for reliable info on RafRod and have not been able to find much. If you have something that is quoting a scout or someone in the Giants organization, anything of substance, I'd really like to see it.

    There are quite a few of those names you mentioned who I would definitely rank behind RafRod based on everything I know.

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  6. BA has not had anything bad to say other than that as his body fills out, he won't as good a runner.

    Until I hear something more substantial, it would be my thinking that RafRod experienced a bit of the culture shock in 2010 that adversely affected his performance, at least early on.

    I was thinking about him when I recalled that he's a young kid from a poor part of DR, and in 2009 he spent his time in Arizona where there is a large Spanish speaking population, so at least he could feel somewhat at home. In 2010, Salem-Keizer was probably his first time to a place where there are few Spanish speakers.

    Everyone reacts differently to that, and even American born ballplayers feel homesick going away for the first time. Imagine how much harder that is when you don't speak the local language. And to boot, he was only 17, nearly 18.

    I'll worry about his maturity when he gets a bit older. I don't think many of us were at our best/peak when we just turned 18.

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