#24 Matthew Graham, RHP. Short Season: 0-3, 6.85, 22.1 IP, 10 BB, 19 K's, GO/AO= 2.43. Rookie AZL: 1-0, 5.63, 8 IP, 5 BB, 8 K's, GO/AO= 2.50.
Since John Barr took over as Scouting Director, the Giants seem to be starting a pattern of taking a raw, high upside high school pitcher somewhere about rounds 6-10. Graham is one of those, taken in round 6, 2009. He's a typical Texas pitcher, tall and big-boned at 6'4", 225 lbs. He turned 20 early in the season, which is one reason why the Giants may have started him out in short season ball, but it was his first professional action. Despite the high ERA's, there are some things to like here. He's an extreme groundball pitcher with a decent K rate. He needs to cut down on the walks and likely needs better secondary stuff to get less hard contact. Drafting these kinds of players in rounds 6-10 is a smart way to go. If even one out of 5 hit their ceiling, heck, if even 1 out of 10 do, it's a great return for those rounds of the draft. At this point Graham is still a wild card prospect, very high ceiling, but also high risk of being a bust. I would think the Giants will have him in some role in Augusta next season. He will probably have a similar ranking on my 2011 list.
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I completely agree - Matt Graham is the kind of pitcher the Giants need to take a flyer on every year. I still have some small hope he makes it to the majors; but he'll still be in the mid-20's on my list.
ReplyDeleteI have faith that Graham will figure it out. The GB rate is too good and he throws hard enough to be very effective. He sort of reminds me of how Brandon Webb was early in his career with the high walks, good K rate and awesome GB rates. I am not saying that we have Brandon Webb, but he is a big guy and after being a top prospect earlier in his HS career he probably had a growth spurt and is still figuring out his new longer body and arm slot. I am very excited to see how he fares in the Augusta rotation next summer. Thanks for the awesome blog Doc.
ReplyDeleteI am a big fan of HS picks in the 7 - 15 rounds; not so much in the 1-3 rounds (except for the super-studs like Bum). In these late-early rounds, if you hit 1 stud in 7 or 8 picks, that is a GREAT return. If you have that kind of return for a 1 -3 pick, that is not so great (still early to close the book, but 2007 is not looking so hot at this point).
ReplyDeleteI do not know much about Graham, but I like the strategy with him (and Kickham, Jones, etc)
Don't think Graham will pan out, but I think we should keep collecting lottery tickets like him every year (in the draft, in Latin America, dumpster diving...)
ReplyDeleteOne day, we'll hit on a lottery ticket, and be very, very happy.
FYI, my study on the draft found that the odds of finding a stud even in the late first round is about 10%, not even 1 in 7 or 8 picks. Odds way worse by rounds 6-10, should be much less than 1%.
ReplyDeleteI would also add Matt Cain as another first round HS draft pick that panned out as a super-stud.
I like Graham as a pick for the same reasons, you pick enough of them, they will start paying off. The draft, for better or worse, is a volume business, which the Giants has maximized by focusing more on pitching.