#18 Conor Gillaspie, 3B. AA: .287/.335/.420 with 25 2B, 8 3B, 8 HR. AFL: .306/.350/.597 with 5 HR in 72 AB.
Conor Gillaspie is on a forced fast track to either the majors or the waiver wire due to signing a MLB contract when he was drafted. Normally, a team can keep a prospect in the minors 4 seasons before exposing him to the Rule 5 draft, at which point they can protect him by adding him to the 40 man roster. Once added to the 40 man roster, they have 3 years worth of options before they have to keep him on the 25 man active roster or expose him to waivers. With Conor Gillaspie, the option clock started the first season after he was drafted. What that means is, he will have to make the 25 man active roster by the spring of 2012, or the Giants will have to put him on waivers, allowing other teams a chance to claim him, before sending him down.
As a .400+ hitting 3B in college, Conor seemed like a good bet to beat those odds and be a major leaguer with room to spare. It hasn't quite worked out that way. He hasn't been terrible in the minors, but neither has he put up the kind of numbers that make you think he is, or should be, on any kind of fast track to the majors. .287 is a good BA for the Eastern League and he's starting to show a bit of power. His AFL performance was kind of a breakout, but a very small sample size and the AFL is notorious hitter's league.
Conor's fortunes may well be tied in a negative way to Pablo Sandoval's. If Sandoval has another bad year and washes out of the Majors, Conor might be the guy the Giants try next at 3B. If Pablo rebounds and looks like he can play 3B for a few more years, then the only opening would be at first base and it's even tougher to see Conor developing the kind of power you want from a first baseman. If Pablo has a good season, look for Conor Gillaspie to be packaged in a trade before the Giants have to expose him to waivers.
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I'll repost this from my comments about Thomas Neal:
ReplyDeleteLeague average line in the Eastern League this year: .259/.332/.397
Gillaspie road: .320/.364/.457
Gillaspie home: .250/.299/.375
The Richmond park was an extreme pitchers park. Gillaspie's (and Neal's) road numbers were much, much better and probably closer to their true talent level. It gives hope that Gillaspie's performance in the AFL is for real. Although the precipitous drop in BB% is disturbing, the emerging power is hopeful.
I think Gillaspie will have a good year in AAA, because the PCL will give him a boost. As a LH bat, I think all he needs to do to make the Giants in 2012 is a) have a decent year at the plate; b) split time between 3B & 2B; and c) not completely suck defensively.
Dave, where do you get minor league splits? I've been looking for such a resource. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteDrB, as Dave noted, 2B is where I see Gillaspie's future with Giants. Many reports I read when we got him said that he might end up at 2B. And given that Sanchez's contract is up in 2011, that leaves an opening in 2012 for Gillaspie, Burriss, Noonan, Culberson to shoot for.
And as noted, he would be a backup choice at 3B should Pablo not work out (figuratively and literally). I still think Pablo will, so I think 2B is Gillaspie's best chance to make the majors with Giants. Plus, giving how Bochy mixes and matches, could see Gillaspie at 3B and Pablo at 1B some games, if Giants forced to keep Gillaspie on MLB roster.
OGC, I usually go to www.FirstInning.com because it has K% and BB% readily available, which I really like as stats. I think FanGraphs has recently expanded and updated their sections for minor leaguers. I can't remember where I got the league average numbers for the Eastern League -- perhaps from milb.com?
ReplyDeleteI don't think Gillaspie has played much, if any 2B so far. Having seen him play in the Cal League, it's hard for me to visualize him playing any kind of D there at all. With Noonan, Culberson, Willoughby, Izturis and Ryan Cavan already at the Keystone Sack, I just don't see Gillaspie moving over there. If the Giants have plans to do that, I'd like to see the documentation.
ReplyDeleteI could see Gillaspie being a LH pinch hitting specialist along the lines of Dave Hansen. He could fill in a bit at corner infield positions as well, as Hansen did on occasion.
ReplyDeleteI don't know how much, if any, second base Gillaspie has played. I just think his chances of making the Giants in 2012 skyrocket if he shows the defensive versatility to play both. He could be the utility IF in that case.
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