Tuesday, January 1, 2019

Hot Stove Update: Yusei Kikuchi is not Coming to San Francisco

Word came in late on New Year's Eve that Yusei Kikuchi had reached an agreement with the Seattle Mariners to beat the posting expiration deadline of Jan. 2.  No numbers on the deal yet, but it is reportedly for 3 years with both a player and team option.  The player part of the option is a standard 1 additional season.  The team part is more unique in that it is for an additional 4 years. Not sure exactly how that will work as details are still emerging.

As you probably recall, Kikuchi is a big lefty from Japan who's FB sits in the mid-90's and touches 98 MPH.  He backs that up with a couple of good secondary pitches with excellent command.  Here's the thing about Kikuchi:  I have not doubt he will be an excellent pitcher as long as he stays healthy, but there's the rub.  By my count, he has missed significant parts of 3 seasons, all with shoulder issues.  Historically, Japanese pitchers who have come to MLB have almost all had significant durability issues.  I wouldn't hold that against Kikuchi if he had a clean health record, but he doesn't.  Again, we still don't know how many dollars the Mariners are investing in him, but I am happy to let them take that risk.

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I have a new theory about the Giants inactivity in the free agent and trade market.  It's based on very little more than a hunch, but hear me out.  My theory is that Giants ownership really really wants to sign Bryce Harper and still thinks they have a shot at him.  Zaidi may be part of that pursuit or maybe ownership instructed him to not make any significant moves until they have either signed him or given up the chase.

Gotta say, I pretty much assumed we would see Harper sign with the Dodgers within days ofter the Kemp/Puig trade and there did seem to be a spike in the Harper to the Dodgers rumors right around then, but they have certainly died down since.

Monday, December 31, 2018

DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #1 Joey Bart

Joey Bart, C.  DOB:  12/15/1996.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 220 lbs.  Drafted 2018 Round 1, #2 overall.

2016(College):  .299/.351/.382, 10 2B, 4.6 BB%, 19.54 K%, 174 PA.
2017(Cape Cod League):  .309/.389/.433, 2 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 10.62 BB%, 23.01 K%, 113 PA.
2017(College):  .296/.370/.575, 13 2B, 13 HR, 7.69 BB%, 24.04 K%, 208 PA.
2018(College):  .359/.471/.632, 12 2B, 16 HR, 15.07 BB%, 20.59 K%, 272 PA.
2018(Rookie AZL):  .261/.320/.391, 2B, 3B, 4.00 BB%, 28.00 K%, 25 PA.
2018(Short Season):  .298/.369/.613, 14 2B, 2 3B, 13 HR, 5.91 BB%, 19.70 K%, .318 BABIP, 1.32 GB/FB, 53.5 Pull%, 203 PA, 6 PB, 15/36 CS.

Joey Bart didn't come out of nowhere his junior season in college, but he did significantly improve on his sophomore numbers to boost his draft stock into the discussion for #1 overall.  The Tigers took RHP Casey Mize and the Giants got the guy they really wanted anyway.  You could easily make an argument that Joey Bart is the best catching draft prospect since Buster Posey in 2008 although Mike Zunino from 2012 may want to differ. At any rate, Bart did not disappoint in his pro debut.

You can nitpick the stat line, but it's a really good line for a pro debut!  I tried to compare Bart's line with Posey and Zunino at the same stage but that's really hard.  Buster Posey hardly played at all in 2008 and the Mariners were hyper aggressive with Zunino placing him in A+ and AA in 2012.  Things to like about Bart's debut line include 203 PA's of experience, the .318 BABIP which is sustainable and the relatively low K rate.  He will want to work on being a bit more selective, hopefully without blowing up his K rate.  He will also want to try to put the ball in the air a bit more.  His ratios through college and his pro debut are remarkably stable and if he just continues to do what's he's been doing, he'll be fine.

I would expect Joey Bart to start out the 2019 season in A+ with a promotion to AA about midseason if he gets off to a hot start.  If Buster Posey comes back healthy the Giants will have no reason to rush Bart.  Even if Buster's catching days are about over, the Giants should still let Bart come at his own pace and fill in the catcher position with a short term bridge.  Bart's ETA could be as early as midseason 2020 but more likely 2021 and will be somewhat dependent on Buster Posey's circumstances.  At his peak, I would expect Bart to hit for more power than Buster but with a lower BA. I think he will have more usable power than Zunino because he will hit for a higher average.  He could be an All-Star caliber catcher for several years.  He is currently ranked as the #23 overall prospect by MLB Pipeline.

DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects

I appreciated the feedback I received from the community on my preliminary Giants Top 50 list for 2019.  I have taken the suggestions to heart and made some changes in the list to reflect it. As always, try to not get too hung up on the exact rankings.  The main point of this exercise is to get better acquainted with the Giants farm system in general and with specific prospects.

1.  Joey Bart, C.
2.  Heliot Ramos, OF.
3.  Marco Luciano, SS
4.  Logan Webb, RHP.
5.  Melvin Adon, RHP.
6.  Gregory Santos, RHP.
7.  Shaun Anderson, RHP.
8.  Aramis Garcia, C.
9.  Chris Shaw, LF.
10.  Ryan Howard, IF.
11.  Drew Ferguson, OF.
12.  Travis Bergen, LHP.
13.  Garrett Williams, LHP.
14.  David Villar, 3B.
15.  Alexander Canario, OF.
16.  Jalen Miller, 2B.
17.  Heath Quinn, OF.
18.  Sean Hjelle, RHP.
19.  Jose Marte, RHP.
20.  Jacob Gonzalez, 3B.
21. Sandro Fabian, OF.
22.  Manuel Geraldo, SS.
23.  Diego Rincones, OF.
24.  Juan DePaula, RHP.
25.  Camilo Doval, RHP.
26.  Seth Corry, LHP.
27.  Jacob Wong, RHP.
28.  CJ Hinojosa, IF.
29.  Tyler Beede, RHP.
30.  Abiatal Avelino, SS.
31.  Jacob Heyward, OF.
32.  Tyler Herb, RHP.
33.  Aaron Bond, OF.
34.  Sam Wolff, RHP.
35.  Patrick Ruotolo, RHP.
36.  Carlos Sano, RHP.
37.  Johneshwy Fargas, OF.
38.  Bryce Johnson, OF.
39.  Chase Johnson, RHP.
40.  Aaron Phillips, RHP.
41.  DJ Myers, RHP.
42.  JJ Santa Cruz, LHP.
43.  Orlando Garcia, 2B.
44. Tyler Rogers, RHP.
45.  Garrett Cave, RHP.
46.  Solomon Bates, RHP.
47.  Conner Menez, LHP.
48.  Blake Rivera, RHP.
49.  Conner Nurse, RHP.
50. Yorlis Rodriguez, 3B.


Honorable Mention:  Brandon Van Horn SS, Sean Roby 3B, Frankie Tostado 1B, Jose Layer OF, Abdiel Layer IF, Dalton Combs OF, Sam Moll LHP, Kyle McPherson 2B, John Gavin LHP, Olbis Parra RHP, Kelvin Beltre IF, Peter Maris IF, John Russell RHP,  Jordan Johnson RHP, Matt Winn C, Jonah Arenado 3B/1B, Norwith Gudino RHP, Jeffry Parra C, Ismael Munguia OF, Malique Ziegler OF, Logan Baldwin OF, Luis Moreno RHP, Jesus Tona RHP, Trent Toplikar RHP, Keaton Winn RHP, Francis Pena RHP, Ricardo Genoves C, Nico Giarratano SS, Randy Norris OF, Logan Harasta RHP, Marco Gonzalez LHP, Jasier Herrera RHP, Jacob Lopez LHP, Ben Madison RHP, Chris Roberts RHP, Julio Rodriquez RHP, Fabian Pena C, Aynesber Sivira 2B, Beicker Mendoza 1B, Austin Edgette OF, Patrick Hilson OF, Bryan Hernandez OF, Tyler Flores OF.

Dominican Dandies:  Ivan Armstrong RHP, Jesus Gomez LHP, Josdeiker Marcano RHP, Samuel Quintana LHP, Juan Sanchez LHP, Sonny Vargas LHP, Rodolfo Bone C, Luis Toribio 3B, Ghordy Santos SS, Richgelon Juliana OF, Jairo Pomares OF, Luis Matos OF.

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Q: Would the community prefer if I do the individual profiles from top to bottom or in reverse order? Let me know in comments below.

Sunday, December 30, 2018

Scouting the 2019 Draft: Brennan Malone

Brennan Malone, RHP, HS.   DOB:  9/8/2000.  6'3", 203 lbs.(PG lists at 6'5', 210 lbs)

Young, athletic righty with a big fastball that gets up to 97 MPH in bursts but generally sits in the low 90's.  Scouts think there is more in the tank based on peak velocities and projectability.  His secondary stuff is in early development, but per Perfect Game, his curveball improved with each outing.  He is moving to IMG Academy which faces stronger competition than most high schools.

On video, Malone shows strength in his upper legs with moderate drop and drive.  His arm action is fluid with moderate effort.  The frame is strong with some projection to add weight and strength although weight could become a problem in the future.

MLB Pipleline ranks him #10.  Fangraphs has him at #20 and PG has him at #4 overall draft prospect.  I like this kid a lot although with so many great hitters in this draft, the demographic risk may be more palatable later in the first round than the Giants at #10.

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DrB's Updated 2019 Draft Board:

1.  Bobby Witt Jr., SS, HS.  5-tool athlete with MLB bloodline who can stick at SS.

2.  Adley Rutschman, C, College(Oregon St).  Excellent catching prospect whose bat had a huge sophomore breakout.

3.  CJ Abrams, SS, HS.  4+ tool prospect with best wheels in draft.  Power lags a bit.

4.  Shea Langeliers, C, College(Baylor).   Solid catching prospect with potential for a plus bat.

5.  Andrew Vaughn, 1B, College(Cal).  Top college power bat in the draft.  The numbers guys will like him better than the scouts.

6.  Josh Jung, 3B, College(Texas Tech).  Disciplined bat with power potential.  Has arm to play 3B at highest level.

7. Riley Greene, OF, HS.  Top HS bat in draft with an advanced hit tool with plus power.  Lack of speed puts a lot of pressure on the bat.

8.  Brennan Malone, RHP, HS.  Ideal pitcher's size and frame with projectability in a fastball that already reaches 97 MPH.

9.  Graeme Stinson, LHP, College(Duke).  Jumbo sized lefty with "plus-plus" slider.  Low risk/high floor prospect, but I see him as a likely reliever in the pros.

10.  Carter Stewart, RHP, JC.  Has tools to be an ace. Will need to overcome health concerns after "failing" physical with Braves last year.

Saturday, December 29, 2018

Fantasy Focus: Impact Rookies- Josh James

Josh James, RHP, Astros.  DOB:  3/8/1993.  6'3", 206 lbs.

2018 AA:  0-0, 2.49, 21.2 IP, 15.78 K/9, 4.15 BB/9.
2018 AAA:  6-4, 92.2 IP, 12.92 K/9, 3.79 BB/9.
2018 MLB:  2-0, 2.35, 23 IP, 11.35 K/9, 2.74 BB/9.

Josh James is a rookie who may slip under some radars on fantasy draft day.  He's ranked as just the 95'th top prospect on MLB Pipeline.  People who know who he is may recall him as a reliever in the 2018 postseason, but he actually started in 24 of 39 appearances across 3 levels including 3 of 6 in the regular season for the MLB Astros.

James had a huge breakout in 2018 mainly due to a major increase in FB velocity from the low 90's to high 90's.  He attributes his late success to treatment of his sleep apnea and improved conditioning.   In addition to the FB he throws a good changeup that is his top secondary pitch and a slider which can be an out pitch at times.  He still struggles with command at times.

The command issues may eventually force him to the bullpen full time but with the Astros losing Charlie Morton and Dallas Keuchel to free agency and Lance McCullers Jr. to injury, James is the odds on favorite to win a rotation spot out of spring training even is Colin McHugh is ticketed for one of the openings.  If you target Josh James in the late-middle rounds of your draft or in the $5-10 range in auctions, you have a good chance of landing him for a great value.

Hot Stove Update: Angels Sign Jonathan Lucroy

It wasn't too long ago that a Jonathan Lucroy signing would be headline Hot Stove news.  Now, it's so insignificant, I had to debate whether to even post anything on it.  He is coming off a season in which he posted an OPS of just .617, his worst in his entire MLB career.  He also slipped in several defensive metrics although he threw out more than 30% of basestealers.  The Angels signed him yesterday for 1 yr/$3.35 M with incentives that reach to about $4.5 M.  His BABIP has been down from career norms for 2 seasons now.  Some analysts might look at that and say it's his new normal.  Others may say he's ripe for a bounceback.  For catchers at age 32, it's more likely the former.  Kevan Smith will likely be the backup C with Jose Briceno getting more salt in AAA.

I would say this signing has no impact on the Giants as I didn't see them signing Lucroy as the back up plan for Buster Posey.

Friday, December 28, 2018

Scouting the 2019 Draft: Graeme Stinson

Graeme Stinson, LHP, College(Duke).  6'5", 260 lbs.

2017:  3-1, 6.67, 28 IP, 14.29 K/9, 3.81 BB/9.
2018:  5-1, 1.89, 62 IP, 14.23 K/9, 2.76 BB/9.

Stinson is a jumbo lefty who worked as a swingman last year at Duke with 4 starts out of 23 appearances.  He had the highest K/9 of any college pitcher with at least 62 IP.  His scouting report includes a low-mid 90's FB and a "plus-plus" slider that is his best pitch.  He also has a changeup but has not used it much coming out of the bullpen.  He pitched 6 shutout innings in his final appearance and is expected to be a starter for Duke in 2019.  Final ranking on draft boards will depend on how he is able to sustain a SP role.  Biggest rap on him is his unathletic body.  Obvious comp would be David "Boomer" Wells.  Not that he is a bad prospect, but the fact that he is the top ranked college pitcher on some draft boards tells you all you need to know about this year's college pitching talent.  I would estimate a greater than 50% chance he ends up as a reliever in the pros.  #9 draft prospect on MLB Pipeline.  #14 on Fangraphs.

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DrB's Updated 2019 Draft Board:

1.  Bobby Witt Jr., SS, HS.  5-tool athlete with MLB bloodline who can stick at SS.

2.  Adley Rutschman, C, College(Oregon St).  Excellent catching prospect whose bat had a huge sophomore breakout.

3.  CJ Abrams, SS, HS.  4+ tool prospect with best wheels in draft.  Power lags a bit.

4.  Shea Langeliers, C, College(Baylor).  Solid catching prospect with potential for a plus bat.

5.  Andrew Vaughn, 1B, College(Cal).  Top college power bat in the draft.  The numbers guys will like him better than the scouts.

6.  Josh Jung, 3B, College(Texas Tech).  Disciplined bat with power potential.  Has arm to play 3B at highest level.

7.  Riley Greene, OF, HS.  Top HS bat in draft with an advanced hit tool with plus power.  Lack of speed puts a lot of pressure on the bat.

8.  Graeme Stinson, LHP, College(Duke).  Jumbo sized lefty with "plus-plus" slider.  Low risk/high floor prospect, but I see him as a likely reliever in the pros.

9.  Carter Stewart, RHP, JC.  Has tools to be an ace.  Will need to overcome health concerns after "failing" physical with Braves last year.