Word came in late on New Year's Eve that Yusei Kikuchi had reached an agreement with the Seattle Mariners to beat the posting expiration deadline of Jan. 2. No numbers on the deal yet, but it is reportedly for 3 years with both a player and team option. The player part of the option is a standard 1 additional season. The team part is more unique in that it is for an additional 4 years. Not sure exactly how that will work as details are still emerging.
As you probably recall, Kikuchi is a big lefty from Japan who's FB sits in the mid-90's and touches 98 MPH. He backs that up with a couple of good secondary pitches with excellent command. Here's the thing about Kikuchi: I have not doubt he will be an excellent pitcher as long as he stays healthy, but there's the rub. By my count, he has missed significant parts of 3 seasons, all with shoulder issues. Historically, Japanese pitchers who have come to MLB have almost all had significant durability issues. I wouldn't hold that against Kikuchi if he had a clean health record, but he doesn't. Again, we still don't know how many dollars the Mariners are investing in him, but I am happy to let them take that risk.
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I have a new theory about the Giants inactivity in the free agent and trade market. It's based on very little more than a hunch, but hear me out. My theory is that Giants ownership really really wants to sign Bryce Harper and still thinks they have a shot at him. Zaidi may be part of that pursuit or maybe ownership instructed him to not make any significant moves until they have either signed him or given up the chase.
Gotta say, I pretty much assumed we would see Harper sign with the Dodgers within days ofter the Kemp/Puig trade and there did seem to be a spike in the Harper to the Dodgers rumors right around then, but they have certainly died down since.
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Mariners "bought" him...
ReplyDeleteMLBTR: Kikuchi will earn $43MM over the first three years of the contract, Heyman reports (Twitter link). At that point, the Mariners can then choose to extend Kikuchi for $66MM over the 2022-25 seasons, which would make the deal a seven-year, $109MM contract overall. If the M’s don’t exercise this four-year extension, Kikuchi then can opt to exercise a player option for 2022 that would pay him $13MM.
Lots of money for a guy who may have health issues -- much too much for Giants who have these issues already.
I like your hunch Dr B - I think the Giants would immediately become a 2019 playoff contender with Harper in RF. The only things left to solve would be SP depth (Keuchel, why not?) and backup catcher, although Zaidi might want a platoon partner in CF. I hope for Mac W in LF if he hits like the start of last year.
ReplyDeleteWas Shinjo so bad that he swore the G's off of the Japanese market forever?
ReplyDeleteI was kind of hoping this was the move that we were waiting for. Guess not.
Are these missed opportunities? The Giants haven't played in the Asian market (or, to a lesser extent, the old international market) at all. A little risky, sure. But there are successes. Looking at Zaidi's old house, Ryu & Maeda. Neither a game-changer, but both very solid major league players playing on very reasonable contracts. (Thinking Ryu's first contract.)
I'd love to know if the Giants were making a serious play for Kukuchi.
Shinjo!
DeleteGiants should have had him last year. His 2002 would have been best OFer on the Giants (better than McCutchen when adjusted for Games) and he was a pretty fair fielder.
Was he an unhappy Giant? He hardly played in the glorious WS.
I noticed the other day a title of a youtube video called "Adam Dunn: The Weirdest Career in MLB History," and thought how he was maybe the quintessential moneyball or today's-analytics-lovers player maybe of all time. And maybe he was ahead of his time because he was around when this analytics boom hadn't taken off yet. I would love to see a breakdown of his career by you Dr. B if you have the time and/or interest. I think it would be a fascinating analysis mainly because he seemed to be so ahead of his time as maybe the best true outcomes player of all time and the exact type of player this new wave of baseball analytics seems to be sighting after.
ReplyDeleteThat pretty much sums it up. Dunn was an extreme 3-true outcomes player. A crazy high percentage of his PA's ended in a BB, K or HR. He was a sabermetric darling until defensive metrics started showing up in the conversation. He was a terrible defensive player who should have never set foot on the field except to bat as a DH.
DeleteTulo goes Yankee, maybe his best opportunity to "in-your-face" Toronto?
ReplyDeleteWith Gregorius out 'til summer he might get to play -- is everyday good for him and his feet?
Doesn't seem like the best landing spot for him: the Yankees have to play to WIN and still may end up a WC again.
i think a cheap option for the outfield is avisail garcia on a one or two year contract and could be cheap power. marco estrada would be a good rehabilitation project for the giants in the rotation on a minor league contract as a bridge until shaun anderson is ready.
ReplyDeleteI have to say getting Harper would be exciting and definitely would make the fanbase happy but I don’t think that makes us contenders. I think we are thin at SP and could probably use a few short term contracts. Guys like Derek Holland and Gio Gonzalez could fit the bill. I also think Adam Jones on a 1-2 year deal could be a low cost high reward situation.
ReplyDeleteHenry Schulman, SF Chronicle, reports "Zaidi suggested he is taking a different course, trying to be patient in a slow-developing market and negotiate as many moves as he can to improve a team that is not one or two players from contending."
ReplyDeleteSchulman concludes "... the decision to pass on Kikuchi provides further evidence that the new administration does not feel it can set the Giants on a proper course by grasping at a few shiny baubles on the market."
Schulman says Zaidi pledged to improve the Giants by making "one good baseball move after another" -- is the one and only move to date the Venditte signing? Or the 2 Rule 5 signings which only are operative if they are on the opening day roster?
Zaidi: "We're very motivated, obviously, to fill those needs and get better. But we don't want to get into that mode of desperation, which will hurt us more in the long run."
OK, the Giants are not going to tear down the team per Larry Baer, and they're not going to compete in 2019, my interpretation of Farhan Zaidi.
www.sfchronicle.com/giants/article/Giants-Zaidi-downplays-expectations-for-13503616.php
I have no problem with Zaidi letting the market come to him. We'll see if that's how it plays out in the end.
DeleteGreat article and timely. What he's doing makes sense, try to make moves to get better now with an eye for the future. They're changing the way they do business, no more making questionable moves going for it every year.
ReplyDeleteIt's one thing to think longer term than just filling the holes for next season. It's quite another to not make any significant moves at all. I want to see how the rest of the Hot Stove season plays out before I proclaim that Zaidi is on the right course.
DeleteSchulman also had an interesting discussion on his Twitter last night and followed up with the interview today. It seems like Zaidi thinks that the best chance to get out from under all the bad win now contracts is to stop giving them out for now. You're right though best to see how the rest of the off season plays out before proclaiming anything.
DeleteI think there are players out there who can help the Giants be competitive in 2019 who don't require adding to the bad contracts, but I also think they have the resources to overpay for, say, an AJ Pollock who would help now and in future seasons.
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