DJ Myers, RHP. DOB: 12/24/1994. 6'5", 265 lbs. Drafted 2016 Round 15.
2018 A+: 6-4, 4.86, 96.1 IP, 8.78 K/9, 2.06 BB/9, 1.22 GB/FB, 3.76 FIP, 4.01 xFIP.
DJ Myers is a jumbo sized RHP who has pitched in a swingman role(30 Starts in 60 Appearances) since being drafted in 2016. So far, he has shown adequate K rates, solid BB rates and modest GB tendency. I don't find a scouting report per se but on video he has a nice easy motion where he looks like he's playing catch with the catcher. Kind of brings back memories of Rick Reuschal. Time to take his game up to AA Richmond which is generally more pitcher friendly than San Jose. If he does well there, he can get in line for a MLB opportunity. I would project a swingman/long relief role for him in the majors.
Sunday, February 3, 2019
Scouting the 2019 Draft: Jerrion Ealy
Jerrion Ealy, OF. DOB: B-R, T-R. 5'10", 190 lbs.
Ealy is a 2-way HS star from Mississippi. He is committed to Ole Miss as a RB but also intends to play baseball. 5-tool player in baseball with a nice compact swing that generates contact with power. The ball "jumps off his bat" per PG scouting report. 6.13 60 yd dash. 96 MPH on throws from OF. Projects as a 20/30 with plus D in CF. Football ability is a big issue. Will probably have to go in the top half of the first round to get a big enough bonus to keep him away from playing football in college.
Ealy is a 2-way HS star from Mississippi. He is committed to Ole Miss as a RB but also intends to play baseball. 5-tool player in baseball with a nice compact swing that generates contact with power. The ball "jumps off his bat" per PG scouting report. 6.13 60 yd dash. 96 MPH on throws from OF. Projects as a 20/30 with plus D in CF. Football ability is a big issue. Will probably have to go in the top half of the first round to get a big enough bonus to keep him away from playing football in college.
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #40 Aaron Phillips
Aaron Phillips, RHP. DOB: 10/11/1996. 6'5", 215 lbs. Drafted 2017 Round 9.
2017 Short Season: 3-0, 4.45, 28.1 IP, 11.44 K/9, 4.13 BB/9, 3.68 FIP, 3.73 xFIP, 1.07 FB/FB.
2018 Low A: 6-7, 3.72, 101.2 IP, 10.62 K/9, 1.42 BB/9, 3.54 FIP, 2.82 xFIP, 1.28 GB/FB.
Aaron Phillips had himself quite a season pitching exclusively for Augusta last season. Despite being a college draftee from 2017, he played the whole season at age 21 which is a year younger than most college draftees first full season which makes his level more appropriate. Per Fangraphs, he fits the profile of a late bloomer in that he has height, a frame that can carry more weight and attended a smaller college in the Northeast(St Bonaventure). Also per Fangraphs he throws a low 90's FB that he is not afraid to use up in the zone, a diving curveball. He also gets "way down the mound, which helps his fastball play a bit better than its otherwise fringey velocity would suggest."
Speaking of projectability, per video from Augusta, he already weighs a lot more than 215 lbs. He should move up to San Jose in 2019 where he'll still be age appropriate. I'll try to get out to see him when the SJ Giants come to SoCal.
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I generally don't mess with the list after I put it out, but I had Brandon Van Horn in this slot and after I researched him, I realized he did not belong in the top 50. I dropped him into HM, moved #41-50 up one slot and added LHP Conner Menez in at #50.
2017 Short Season: 3-0, 4.45, 28.1 IP, 11.44 K/9, 4.13 BB/9, 3.68 FIP, 3.73 xFIP, 1.07 FB/FB.
2018 Low A: 6-7, 3.72, 101.2 IP, 10.62 K/9, 1.42 BB/9, 3.54 FIP, 2.82 xFIP, 1.28 GB/FB.
Aaron Phillips had himself quite a season pitching exclusively for Augusta last season. Despite being a college draftee from 2017, he played the whole season at age 21 which is a year younger than most college draftees first full season which makes his level more appropriate. Per Fangraphs, he fits the profile of a late bloomer in that he has height, a frame that can carry more weight and attended a smaller college in the Northeast(St Bonaventure). Also per Fangraphs he throws a low 90's FB that he is not afraid to use up in the zone, a diving curveball. He also gets "way down the mound, which helps his fastball play a bit better than its otherwise fringey velocity would suggest."
Speaking of projectability, per video from Augusta, he already weighs a lot more than 215 lbs. He should move up to San Jose in 2019 where he'll still be age appropriate. I'll try to get out to see him when the SJ Giants come to SoCal.
*********************************************************************************
I generally don't mess with the list after I put it out, but I had Brandon Van Horn in this slot and after I researched him, I realized he did not belong in the top 50. I dropped him into HM, moved #41-50 up one slot and added LHP Conner Menez in at #50.
Saturday, February 2, 2019
Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Brandon Beachy
Remember Brandon Beachy? Yeah, that guy! He burst onto the MLB scene in 2011 with the Atlanta Braves and continued that success into 2012 only to see his career derailed by a torn UCL and Tommy John surgery. Beachy is a reminder that not all TJ's have happy endings. He came back but then suffered a recurrence and had to have a second surgery, which is generally the end of the road for most pitchers. The Dodgers signed him in 2015 but he never got traction with them due to recurring elbow tendonitis. He has not pitched in the major leagues since 2015.
He pitched 12 effective innings in indy ball last year. We all know how much Farhan Zaidi likes to stockpile pitchers with injury histories. There is also the Dodgers connection. I can't seem to find the reference now, but I think I read about him working out with Driveline Baseball. The Giants recently hired one of the main guys from that outfit, so there may be a connection there too.
Everybody seems to be comparing Beachy to Ryan Vogelsong except Beachy has no previous connection to the Giants. Still, it would be a great story if Beachy came back to pitch successfully at age 32 after pitching just 8 MLB innings since 2013 and none since 2015. Oh, and the deal is a minor league deal undoubtedly with an invitation to spring training although I haven not seen any reference to that part of the deal.
He pitched 12 effective innings in indy ball last year. We all know how much Farhan Zaidi likes to stockpile pitchers with injury histories. There is also the Dodgers connection. I can't seem to find the reference now, but I think I read about him working out with Driveline Baseball. The Giants recently hired one of the main guys from that outfit, so there may be a connection there too.
Everybody seems to be comparing Beachy to Ryan Vogelsong except Beachy has no previous connection to the Giants. Still, it would be a great story if Beachy came back to pitch successfully at age 32 after pitching just 8 MLB innings since 2013 and none since 2015. Oh, and the deal is a minor league deal undoubtedly with an invitation to spring training although I haven not seen any reference to that part of the deal.
State of the Giants: 2019 Best Case Scenario, AKA California Dreaming
OK, team! Let's take a break from grinding through DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects and the depressing Hot Stove Updates, let our hair down and have a little fun. It feels like Farhan Zaidi has spent the Hot Stove League season buying up lemons. Let's see if we can turn those lemons into lemonade! Here's the premise: Zaidi is essentially done with his roster building, at least until midseason and next offseason. The Giants go into spring training and the season with the roster they have. What if we project the best case scenario for every player on the roster? What kind of a season would the Giants have? Would they compete for a postseason berth?
Let's break it down(disclaimer: We all know a season never plays out they way you draw it up on paper. Some players may have better seasons than you project. Others will be worse. There will be injuries with players shuttling between AAA and MLB as well as midseason additions and/or subtractions. This is just for fun and to get a rough idea of what this team's absolute ceiling might be, AKA Irrational Exuberance!):
C Buster Posey: Giants hopes to compete in 2019 probably begin and end with Buster Posey's health. At this point there appears to be no likely scenario that they have any semblance of a replacement plan for him. So, Best Case Scenario Buster starts the season in the best shape of his life. We'll curb our enthusiasm just a bit and say Buster bounces back to a 3.5 fWAR season. That's not completely out of the question, right?
1B Brandon Belt: Belt finally stays healthy for a full season and gets into a groove at the plate. Career year of 4.0 fWAR. Again, not out of the question, right?
2B Joe Panik: Panik also stays healthy for a full season, gets some BABIP luck going and puts up a fWAR of 3.0. Could happen, right?
3B Evan Longoria: Longo stays healthy, has had a season's worth of looks at NL pitching. 3.0 fWAR.
SS Brandon Crawford: Crawford stays healthy and has a modest bounceback. 3.0 fWAR.
LF Mac Williamson/Anthony Garcia: One of these 2 guys breaks out and hits 30 dingers. Give up a bit on defense, but good enough for 2.5 fWAR.
CF Steven Duggar: Gold Glove defense in CF will go a long way toward an fWAR of 3.0.
RF Drew Ferguson: OBP of .360 and solid RF defense get him to an FWAR of 2.5.
Bench: With the starters all enjoying healthy and productive seasons, there is not as much opportunity coming off the bench but we'll project 5 players to accumulate a total of 2.0 fWAR.
So far we have 26.5 fWAR from the 13 position players. Let's move on to the pitchers:
SP Madison Bumgarner: Best Shape of His Life. PO'd at trade talk. Pitching for a contract. Stays healthy all season. 4.0 fWAR.
SP Jeff Samardzija: Shakes off whatever was bothering his shoulder last year. 3.0 fWAR.
SP Derek Holland: Repeats 2018 with an fWAR of 2.0.
SP Drew Pomeranz: Stays healthy and bounces back to a 3.0 fWAR.
SP Chris Stratton: Consistently inconsistent. Might not make it through a full season in the #5 role. 1.0 fWAR. Derek Rodriguez and Andrew Suarez will likely start the season in Sacramento but will be a quick bus ride away.
RP Will Smith: Repeats 2018. 2.0 fWAR.
RP Tony Watson: Repeats 2018. 1.8 fWAR.
RP Mark Melancon: Modest improvement. 1.0 fWAR.
RP Sam Dyson: Repeats last year. 0.5 fWAR.
RP Ty Blach Repeats last season. 0.8 fWAR.
RP Reyes Moronta: Repeats last season 1.0 fWAR.
RP Travis Bergen: Irrational exuberance! 1.0 fWAR.
12 pitchers total 21.1 fWAR.
25 Man Roster= 47.6 fWAR
Fangraphs Replacement Team Wins = 52(per Wikipedia).
52 + 47.6 = 99 Wins(rounding down)
We have not projected any one player to have a career year(except Brandon Belt, barely). We have not projected any one player to have a crazy fluke Andres Torres season.
Conclusion: It is possible with wearing a nice pair of Rose Colored Glasses, a little Irrational Exuberance and some California Dreaming to project a best case scenario of not just competing for a postseason spot but winning the darn NL West!
Now, wasn't that fun?
Let's break it down(disclaimer: We all know a season never plays out they way you draw it up on paper. Some players may have better seasons than you project. Others will be worse. There will be injuries with players shuttling between AAA and MLB as well as midseason additions and/or subtractions. This is just for fun and to get a rough idea of what this team's absolute ceiling might be, AKA Irrational Exuberance!):
C Buster Posey: Giants hopes to compete in 2019 probably begin and end with Buster Posey's health. At this point there appears to be no likely scenario that they have any semblance of a replacement plan for him. So, Best Case Scenario Buster starts the season in the best shape of his life. We'll curb our enthusiasm just a bit and say Buster bounces back to a 3.5 fWAR season. That's not completely out of the question, right?
1B Brandon Belt: Belt finally stays healthy for a full season and gets into a groove at the plate. Career year of 4.0 fWAR. Again, not out of the question, right?
2B Joe Panik: Panik also stays healthy for a full season, gets some BABIP luck going and puts up a fWAR of 3.0. Could happen, right?
3B Evan Longoria: Longo stays healthy, has had a season's worth of looks at NL pitching. 3.0 fWAR.
SS Brandon Crawford: Crawford stays healthy and has a modest bounceback. 3.0 fWAR.
LF Mac Williamson/Anthony Garcia: One of these 2 guys breaks out and hits 30 dingers. Give up a bit on defense, but good enough for 2.5 fWAR.
CF Steven Duggar: Gold Glove defense in CF will go a long way toward an fWAR of 3.0.
RF Drew Ferguson: OBP of .360 and solid RF defense get him to an FWAR of 2.5.
Bench: With the starters all enjoying healthy and productive seasons, there is not as much opportunity coming off the bench but we'll project 5 players to accumulate a total of 2.0 fWAR.
So far we have 26.5 fWAR from the 13 position players. Let's move on to the pitchers:
SP Madison Bumgarner: Best Shape of His Life. PO'd at trade talk. Pitching for a contract. Stays healthy all season. 4.0 fWAR.
SP Jeff Samardzija: Shakes off whatever was bothering his shoulder last year. 3.0 fWAR.
SP Derek Holland: Repeats 2018 with an fWAR of 2.0.
SP Drew Pomeranz: Stays healthy and bounces back to a 3.0 fWAR.
SP Chris Stratton: Consistently inconsistent. Might not make it through a full season in the #5 role. 1.0 fWAR. Derek Rodriguez and Andrew Suarez will likely start the season in Sacramento but will be a quick bus ride away.
RP Will Smith: Repeats 2018. 2.0 fWAR.
RP Tony Watson: Repeats 2018. 1.8 fWAR.
RP Mark Melancon: Modest improvement. 1.0 fWAR.
RP Sam Dyson: Repeats last year. 0.5 fWAR.
RP Ty Blach Repeats last season. 0.8 fWAR.
RP Reyes Moronta: Repeats last season 1.0 fWAR.
RP Travis Bergen: Irrational exuberance! 1.0 fWAR.
12 pitchers total 21.1 fWAR.
25 Man Roster= 47.6 fWAR
Fangraphs Replacement Team Wins = 52(per Wikipedia).
52 + 47.6 = 99 Wins(rounding down)
We have not projected any one player to have a career year(except Brandon Belt, barely). We have not projected any one player to have a crazy fluke Andres Torres season.
Conclusion: It is possible with wearing a nice pair of Rose Colored Glasses, a little Irrational Exuberance and some California Dreaming to project a best case scenario of not just competing for a postseason spot but winning the darn NL West!
Now, wasn't that fun?
Friday, February 1, 2019
Hot Stove Update: Giants Claim John Andreoli; DFA Derek Law
John Andreoli, OF. DOB: 6/9/1990. B-R, T-R. 6'1", 210 lbs. Drafted 2011 Round 17(Cubs).
2018 AAA(Mariners): .287/.397/.401, 18 2B, 5 3B, 3 HR, 19 SB, 14.2 BB%, 22.2 K%, 388 PA.
2018 MLB(2 teams): .230/.284/.262, 2 2B, 2 SB, 7.5 BB%, 28.4 K%, 67 PA.
John Andreoli of the Cubs organization and Ian Miller from the Mariners were two OF's who I wanted the Giants to target in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft. As it was, Andreoli was released by the Cubs and granted free agency before the rule 5 draft and signed by the Mariners in January 2018. He got a cup of coffee with the Mariners but was DFA'd and claimed off waivers by the Orioles after just 6 MLB PA. He got 61 more PAs with the Orioles who then DFA'd him on Oct. 31. He was claimed of waivers by the Mariners only to get on the DFA merry-go-round and is now a Giant by way of the Rangers. Got all that?
The reason I wanted the Giants to target him in the Rule 5 draft is his ability to play CF, career OBP of .373 and 45 SB/600 PA. Voila! There is your CF/leadoff hitter. Andreoli now joins a saber's dream group of castoffs and misfits vying for jobs in the Giants OF, all with some reason buried in their stat line why you might think they could have a breakout season.
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In a corresponding move, the Giants DFA'd Derek Law who once seemed like he might be the Giants Closer of the future but has had a very rough last 2 seasons. I would say there is a good chance he clears waivers.
2018 AAA(Mariners): .287/.397/.401, 18 2B, 5 3B, 3 HR, 19 SB, 14.2 BB%, 22.2 K%, 388 PA.
2018 MLB(2 teams): .230/.284/.262, 2 2B, 2 SB, 7.5 BB%, 28.4 K%, 67 PA.
John Andreoli of the Cubs organization and Ian Miller from the Mariners were two OF's who I wanted the Giants to target in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft. As it was, Andreoli was released by the Cubs and granted free agency before the rule 5 draft and signed by the Mariners in January 2018. He got a cup of coffee with the Mariners but was DFA'd and claimed off waivers by the Orioles after just 6 MLB PA. He got 61 more PAs with the Orioles who then DFA'd him on Oct. 31. He was claimed of waivers by the Mariners only to get on the DFA merry-go-round and is now a Giant by way of the Rangers. Got all that?
The reason I wanted the Giants to target him in the Rule 5 draft is his ability to play CF, career OBP of .373 and 45 SB/600 PA. Voila! There is your CF/leadoff hitter. Andreoli now joins a saber's dream group of castoffs and misfits vying for jobs in the Giants OF, all with some reason buried in their stat line why you might think they could have a breakout season.
*********************************************************************************
In a corresponding move, the Giants DFA'd Derek Law who once seemed like he might be the Giants Closer of the future but has had a very rough last 2 seasons. I would say there is a good chance he clears waivers.
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #39 Chase Johnson
Chase Johnson, RHP. DOB: 1/9/1992. 6'4", 192 lbs. Drafted 2013 Round 3.
2018 AA: 2-5, 3.86, 58.1 IP, 5.71 K/9, 3.24 BB/9, 2.09 GB/FB.
Chase Johnson burst onto the prospect scene in 2015 sporting a high-90's FB, strong strikeout rates and dominate GB rates. He struggled with injuries the next two seasons and finally underwent TJ surgery in 2017. He came back last year with mixed results. He still has the dominant GB stuff, but the K rate left a lot to be desired. Pitchers sometimes break out in their second post TJ season, so 2019 will be a big one for Chase with a chance to move way up these rankings or washout for good. He is currently listed on the AAA Sacramento roster, so I believe he is still in the Giants organization.
2018 AA: 2-5, 3.86, 58.1 IP, 5.71 K/9, 3.24 BB/9, 2.09 GB/FB.
Chase Johnson burst onto the prospect scene in 2015 sporting a high-90's FB, strong strikeout rates and dominate GB rates. He struggled with injuries the next two seasons and finally underwent TJ surgery in 2017. He came back last year with mixed results. He still has the dominant GB stuff, but the K rate left a lot to be desired. Pitchers sometimes break out in their second post TJ season, so 2019 will be a big one for Chase with a chance to move way up these rankings or washout for good. He is currently listed on the AAA Sacramento roster, so I believe he is still in the Giants organization.
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