Trader Billy was at it again today shipping power hitting first baseman Chris Carter along with 2 prospects, RHP Brad Peacock and C Max Stassi to new division rival Houston Astros for Jed Lowrie and RHP Fernando Rodriguez. I've gotta say, this one has me scratching my head a bit on several levels. Not that it means anything because I scratched my head at some of Billy's moves last year and it all worked out swimmingly for him in an exciting playoff run.
The centerpiece for Oakland is, obviously, Lowrie. Lowrie has always had tremendous potential to be a power source at SS, but he is coming into his age 29 season and has yet to stay healthy enough to reach 400 AB in any season. On top of that, the A's already spent $6.5 M on a two year contract with Hiroyuki Nakajima ostensibly to be their SS. So who is it, Billy? Nakajima or Lowrie? Maybe Billy sees either Nakajima or Lowrie as more of a utility guy, but it seems like an awful lot to spend in $$$ or trade for a utility guy. Maybe he sees Lowrie as a third baseman?
It's quite easy to see why the Astros made this trade. Chris Carter has the potential to become an elite power hitter and is not even arbitration eligible yet. His contract is controlled through 2018! Peacock may or may not be a serious pitching prospect, but Stassi is a legitimate catching prospect who hit 15 HR's last year for Stockton in the Cal League. So the Astros take in a very nice haul for a guy who has been injured in every season of his career so far. It's not clear who is going to play SS for the 'Stros, but who cares? They aren't going anywhere this season anyway. They are just trying to accumulate talent, and they got talent in this trade.
The trade also has significant fantasy impact as it frees both Chris Carter and Brandon Moss from a 1B platoon in Oakland. Suddenly you can add 2 pretty exciting first basemen to your fantasy rankings where really none existed before.
What do you think of this trade?
Monday, February 4, 2013
DrB's 2013 Giants Top 50 Prospects #46: Jesus Galindo
Jesus Galindo, OF. DOB: 8/23/1990. 5'11", 175 lbs. B-S, T-R.
Low A: .252/.333/.308, 0 HR, 40 SB, 11 CS, 24 BB, 49 K's in 250 AB.
Jesus Galindo has one outstanding tool, speed. He is a true speed demon and very aggressive on the basepaths. The problem is he doesn't hit very well and has shown virtually no power. The BB's rates are decent and the K rates are not terrible, but in 4 minor league seasons in the organization, he has hit above .260 just once and the .308 SLG% is the 2'nd highest of his career. After 4 seasons and at age 22, it looks more and more like he needs to dramatically change his approach to have a chance.
Sunday, February 3, 2013
DrB's 2013 Giants Top 50 Prospects #45: Edward Concepcion
Edward Concepcion, RHP. DOB: 10/3/1988. 6'3", 190 lbs. B-R, T-R.
High A: 4-3, 6.10, 48.2 IP, 37 BB, 51 K', GO/AO= 1.20, BAA= .218, 2 Saves.
Edward Concepcion has been kicking around the lower levels of the Giants organization for several years now. At this point, you'd have to think he is a non-prospect except to one thing: He can throw a baseball 98 MPH! I saw him pitch on a night when he looked completely dominant. He is obviously very hard to hit. He gets the K's. He mostly keeps the ball on the ground. It's just when he gets that wild hair up his nose, as Kruk would say, he completely falls apart. If he ever gets on top of that, you have a dominant setup man or even closer on your hands.
High A: 4-3, 6.10, 48.2 IP, 37 BB, 51 K', GO/AO= 1.20, BAA= .218, 2 Saves.
Edward Concepcion has been kicking around the lower levels of the Giants organization for several years now. At this point, you'd have to think he is a non-prospect except to one thing: He can throw a baseball 98 MPH! I saw him pitch on a night when he looked completely dominant. He is obviously very hard to hit. He gets the K's. He mostly keeps the ball on the ground. It's just when he gets that wild hair up his nose, as Kruk would say, he completely falls apart. If he ever gets on top of that, you have a dominant setup man or even closer on your hands.
Saturday, February 2, 2013
Fantasy Focus: Shortstop Rankings
There is a lot potential value at the shortstop position this year, but the risk is high from the top of the list to the bottom. Let's check out what's available:
1. Ian Desmond, Nationals. 72 R, 25 HR, 73 RBI, .292 BA, 21 SB in 513 AB. I have Desmond at #1 while a lot of lists have him in the 6,7 range. Some analysts don't like his K and BB ratios and question the repeatability of this performance. It's healthy to be skeptical, but I don't believe the risk is greater than Troy Tulowitzki's health.
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies. 33 R, 8 HR, 27 RBI, .287 BA, 2 SB in 181 AB. TMT(Two Month Tulo) would be a clear #1 if you could count on him to stay healthy. Many fantasy owners will still bet that he will.
3. Jose Reyes, Blue Jays. 86 R, 11 HR, 57 RBI, .287 BA, 40 SB in 642 AB. Reyes is coming off a healthy season in which he may have modestly underperformed. He will have a high price because some owners overvalue SB's. The move to Toronto could boost his power into the higher double digits to boost. Past injuries continue to lurk in the background.
4. Starlin Castro, Cubs. 78 R, 14 HR, 78 RBI, .283 BA, 25 SB's in 646 AB. Owners who believe Castro is still on the steep upward part of his career trajectory will be willing to pay a high price. They may be right.
5. Hanley Ramirez, Dodgers. 79 R, 24 HR, 92 RBI, .257 BA, 21 SB in 604 AB. This is really not a bad line, BA excepted. Ramirez is a guy whose fantasy rep may have taken enough of a hit to make him a bargain on draft day.
6. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies. 102 R, 23 HR, 68 RBI, .250 BA, 30 SB in 632 AB. The BA is a bit ugly, but solid, even elite production in other categories. How long can he keep doing it?
7. Ben Zobrist, Rays. 88 R, 20 HR, 74 RBI, .270 BA, 14 SB in 560 AB. Zobrist has the added allure of multiple position eligibility and he's a guy you can count on to deliver solid, if unspectacular value in 5 categories.
8. Derek Jeter, Yankees. 99 R, 15 HR, 58 RBI, .316 BA, 9 SB in 683 AB. Jeter is the Energizer Bunny. When is the battery going to die?
9. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians. 70 R, 16 HR, 68 RBI, .270 BA, 9 SB in 555 AB. Solid numbers but don't pay too much!
10. Alcides Escobar, Royals. 68 R, 5 HR, 52 RBI, .293 BA, 35 SB in 605 AB. Escobar went undrafted and unclaimed in my 10 team league last year. Very nice option to boost your SB's late in a draft. I'll let him go if he gets bid up much higher than $2-3 though.
11. Elvis Andrus, Rangers. 85 R, 3 HR, 62 RBI, .286 BA, 21 SB in 629 AB. Someone in your league will pay a lot for Elvis Andrus and it will be a mistake. Virtually equal or better value is available at bargain basement prices.
12. Zack Cozart, Reds. 72 R, 15 HR, 35 RBI, .244 BA, 4 SB in 561 AB. I expect these numbers to improve in 2013 with 20+ dingers a real possibility.
13. Erick Aybar, Angels. 67 R, 8 HR, 45 RBI, .290 BA, 20 SB in 517 AB. Very cheap source of steals while protecting your BA. Angels fans may overpay for him.
14. Marco Scutaro, Giants. 87 R, 7 HR, 74 RBI, .306 BA, 9 SB in 620 AB. A little light on HR's and SB's, but won't hurt your BA R or RBI. Eligibility at 2B and 3B but most owners will want to use him at either SS or 2B.
15. Jean Segura, Brewers. 19 R, 0 HR, 14 RBI, .258 BA, 7 SB in 131 AB. Segura looks to be a lock to start at SS for the Brewers from the get-go. Some potential to fall flat on his face, but if he sticks should end up with at least 25-30 SB's.
16. Andrelton Simmons, Braves. 17 R, 3 HR, 19 RBI, .289 BA, 1 SB in 166 AB. Manager Fredi Gonzalez proclaimed that he has penciled Simmons into the leadoff spot in a goosed up Braves lineup. Given his minor league record, if Simmons can get on base at a .335 clip from this position, he will score a ton of runs and get close to 20 SB's.
17. Josh Rutledge, Rockies. 37 R, 8 HR, 37 RBI, .274, 7 SB's in 277 AB's. Rutledge will likely move to 2B if TMT(Two Month Tulo) stays healthy, but will have SS eligibility in most leagues. The whole Rockies IF situation is a bit crowded and a bit fluid so I'm not convinced he can be counted on for 600 AB's.
18. Jed Lowrie, Astros. 43 R, 16 HR, 42 RBI, .244 BA, 2 SB's in 340 AB. Lowrie has never been able to stay healthy a full season, but if you want to take a chance at the end of the draft, the payoff could be nice if he finally pulls it off.
19. Everth Cabrera, Padres. 49 R, 2 HR, 24 RBI, .246 BA, 44 SB's! in 398 AB. A lot of owners will look at the SB's and pay a high price. You can't steal 1B, and Cabrera is not a lock to hang onto the starting job.
Sleeper Watch: Brandon Crawford. Call me crazy but Crawford grew a lot last year and was a very tough out by the postseason. Just ask Lance Lynn!
Rookie Watch: Didi Gregorius, D'Backs. D'Backs are stockpiling young SS's so it's anybody's guess what they have in mind, but Gregorius appears to be first in line.
Again, if you are willing to pay a price to get a top SS, there is the possibility of great reward. Personally, I'm going to go stars and scrubs and go bottom fishing for my SS.
DrB's 2013 Giants Top 50 Prospects #44: Dan Burkhart
Dan Burkhart, C. DOB 3/6/1989. 5'11", 215 lbs. B-L, T-R.
High A: .298/.362/.439, 2 HR in 114 AB.
Burkhart was the Giants 10'th round draft pick in 2009 out of Ohio St. He got a late start on the 2012 season showing up in San Jose in June. He hit just .217 in 23 AB in June but caught fire in the second half hitting .333/.390/.493 after the all-star break and .387/.472/.548 over his last 10 games. Defensively, he was the backup catcher to Andrew Susac and DH'd the rest of the time.
He has a classic catcher's build with a thick body and even thicker legs. He most likely profiles strictly as a backup catcher, but the current boon in platooning around baseball gives added value to his lefthanded bat.
High A: .298/.362/.439, 2 HR in 114 AB.
Burkhart was the Giants 10'th round draft pick in 2009 out of Ohio St. He got a late start on the 2012 season showing up in San Jose in June. He hit just .217 in 23 AB in June but caught fire in the second half hitting .333/.390/.493 after the all-star break and .387/.472/.548 over his last 10 games. Defensively, he was the backup catcher to Andrew Susac and DH'd the rest of the time.
He has a classic catcher's build with a thick body and even thicker legs. He most likely profiles strictly as a backup catcher, but the current boon in platooning around baseball gives added value to his lefthanded bat.
Friday, February 1, 2013
Scouting the Draft: Dillon Overton
BA released it's 2013 Top 50 Draft Prospects. #26 on their list, the slot where the Giants are picking as of now, was college LHP Dillon Overton of Oklahoma. Overton is a name that has not been on my radar, so let's take a closer look.
Overton is a skinny LHP listed at 6'2", 160 lbs on the Oklahoma team website. The picture they have posted on the site certainly does not make him look a pound heavier than that. Whether that makes him "projectable" or whether he is just skinny and will always be skinny is a matter of conjecture, I suppose. BA's very brief scouting report has his FB at 90-94 MPH with good secondary stuff. His 2012 numbers were certainly respectable: 6-3, 3.15, 122.2 IP, 24 BB, 126 K's. The 126 K's were good for 8'th in the country in K's.
I would say the Giants tend to favor big bodied pitchers, but but historically they have drafted and developed pitchers of all shapes and sizes so if they like everything else about him, his size should not be a barrier.
Overton is a skinny LHP listed at 6'2", 160 lbs on the Oklahoma team website. The picture they have posted on the site certainly does not make him look a pound heavier than that. Whether that makes him "projectable" or whether he is just skinny and will always be skinny is a matter of conjecture, I suppose. BA's very brief scouting report has his FB at 90-94 MPH with good secondary stuff. His 2012 numbers were certainly respectable: 6-3, 3.15, 122.2 IP, 24 BB, 126 K's. The 126 K's were good for 8'th in the country in K's.
I would say the Giants tend to favor big bodied pitchers, but but historically they have drafted and developed pitchers of all shapes and sizes so if they like everything else about him, his size should not be a barrier.
DrB's 2013 Giants Top 50 Prospects #43: Carter Jurica
Carter Jurica, 2B. DOB: 9/23/1988. 5"11", 185 lbs. B-R, T-R.
High A: .300/.365/.407, 6 HR, 6 SB, 43 BB, 74 K's in 403 AB.
Jurica is another guy who has flown under the radar since being drafted in the 3'rd round out of Kansas State in 2010. Jurica was a holdover for San Jose and he moved from SS to 2B, both of which should have diminished his prospect status, but he really turned in a nice season that got better as it went along. He hit hit .329/.389/.459 in the second half. He does not possess any standout tools, but knows how to hit and puts up solid K and BB numbers. If he uses his extra experience with San Jose to get off to a strong start in AA, he could move way up this list by next year.
High A: .300/.365/.407, 6 HR, 6 SB, 43 BB, 74 K's in 403 AB.
Jurica is another guy who has flown under the radar since being drafted in the 3'rd round out of Kansas State in 2010. Jurica was a holdover for San Jose and he moved from SS to 2B, both of which should have diminished his prospect status, but he really turned in a nice season that got better as it went along. He hit hit .329/.389/.459 in the second half. He does not possess any standout tools, but knows how to hit and puts up solid K and BB numbers. If he uses his extra experience with San Jose to get off to a strong start in AA, he could move way up this list by next year.
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