Low A: .252/.333/.308, 0 HR, 40 SB, 11 CS, 24 BB, 49 K's in 250 AB.
Jesus Galindo has one outstanding tool, speed. He is a true speed demon and very aggressive on the basepaths. The problem is he doesn't hit very well and has shown virtually no power. The BB's rates are decent and the K rates are not terrible, but in 4 minor league seasons in the organization, he has hit above .260 just once and the .308 SLG% is the 2'nd highest of his career. After 4 seasons and at age 22, it looks more and more like he needs to dramatically change his approach to have a chance.
They should have a new stat, net stolen bases or NSB.
ReplyDeleteNSB can be defined as
NSB = SB - CS
or
NSB = SB - (c x CS), where c is a weighing factor.
It's possible that c > 1.
You get 3 outs in an inning. You get, theoretically, unlimited bases in an inning. Use 2012 numbers, the MLB average for a team is about 2200 total bases (I assume stolen bases are excluded here)in 162 games. On average, you get 1.5 bases an inning.
If you get caught, you cost your team 33% of the outs in that inning. You steal a base, you increase the average from 1.5 bases to 2.5 bases or 66% more.
It would appear the facter, c, is < 1, unless it's a rally killing CS.
On the other hand, there are 701 runs, on average, per team.
DeleteSo, you get 701 over (162 x 9) = .48 runs per inning scored per team.
The same 701 runs are scored on 2233 total bases or 0.3 runs per base, i.e. it takes about 3 bases to socre a run (to get an idea, for example, via walks, you need 4 bases, or walks, to score the first run, but the next base, ie., the next walk, will also score a run).
So, an out costs .48 runs.
A base is worth .3 runs.
It would seem that, in this case, c > 1. You can say c = 1.6.
Sorry, an out costs .48/3 or .16 runs.
DeleteSo c < 1.
c = 0.5.
BLSL,
DeleteI suggest you look up an article on Fangraphs re. the changing value of the being Caught Stealing. It turns out it is variable depending on what kind of a lineup a team has.
If you get on base for a team that has a string of HR hitters behind you, you absolutely do not want to get CS. You can score from 1B on a HR just as easily as from 2B and if you get CS, you rob yourself of that opportunity.
If you get on base for a team that doesn't hit very many HR's, then your chances of scoring from 2B are significantly higher than from 1B and if you get CS, you haven't lost as much because you aren't very likely to score if you remain anchored to 1B anyway.
Also, if you play for a team that plays a lot of low scoring games, the value of scoring 1 run becomes greater in comparison to the value of trying for the big inning.
Thanks.
DeleteIt was based on league averages.
I was going to say, in any follow-up discussion, it (i.e. the value of c) depends on the team and the player.
For example, Bonds is his prime. His outs are worth more than, say, Buriss's at any moment of the latter's career.
So, I can see the point of, and am likely to agree with, your recommended article.
OT: the Giants picked up another competitor for an utility MI spot in Tony Abreu, off waivers from the Royals. I presume he would grab a spot off the 40 man roster, since the Royals waived him, do we have any more spots left?
ReplyDeletehttp://sports.yahoo.com/news/giants-claim-abreu-off-waivers-230244918--mlb.html
I see Abreu on the 40 man and with him, we have 39 active and one restricted (Villalona), so I guess we are OK and presumably have one spot still open with Angel restricted and not counting against the 40.
http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=sf
I looked at his numbers and he had a pretty good 2009 that portended a nice player if he kept things up. He had much poorer seasons in 2010-2012, suggesting that he either was injured or demotivated. If the Giants can coax that talent he showed in 2009, they could have a nice backup MI on their hands, and potential replacement for Marco when he's not producing any more, competing with Panik, Noonan, Tanaka (who said explicitly that he's working for a starting position).
DeleteTanaka?
DeleteKensuke Tanaka signed to a minor league contract in January. Will probably get invited to spring training to compete for a utility IF spot on the roster.
DeleteGallindo appears to need to talk with Andres Torres and see what he did to change his approach. Jesus appears to be another speedster who was taught to slap at the ball, instead of how to truly hit the ball.
ReplyDeleteAssuming the Giants know this, why haven't they changed him yet? Though it could be that he has refused to change his approach, perhaps.