At least on paper, Brandon Nimmo OF seemed like a perfect fit for the Giants: CF? Check! Lefty Bat? Check! Rumored MAGA acolyte? OK, maybe not. It doesn't matter now because Nimmo signed an 8 yr/$162 M contract to continue playing for the Mets. That is 3 yr/$52 M more than what MLBTR projected he would get in free agency. The massive inflation trend in MLB continues unabated. Now, Nimmo is a good ballplayer when he plays and well worth the AAV of $21 M, but 2022 was the first time in his career he accumulated more than 600 PA's and the first time he had more than 500 since 2018. So the 8 yrs is a giants leap of faith. Then there is the MAGA thing.......
Carlos Correa SS is still on the market. So is Dansby Swanson SS. I like both players but I am sure Correa is looking at the Trea Turner SS and Xander Bogaerts SS contracts and thinking he should get at least 12 years. As for Swanson, I've been a big fan since he was drafted by the D'Backs out of Vanderbilt but I just don't see him choosing to play his home games in San Francisco.
As they say over on another blog, might be time to see what's available in the Brebbia aisle.
I read recently that one Sad Diego contract is now deemed not so expensive.
ReplyDeleteAnd that brings us to this point - will we, next year and the year after that (etc), see bigger contracts? If so, why not lock into a few now? Imagine if Nimmo would get $200 million next year, getting him for $160 million this year could be considered a Moneyball-type of move. (And putting that idea in hindsight, shouldn't we have been more willing to spend in previous years? Could we have spent more, for example, last year?)
It is not uncommon business people who want to jack up revenue in the short term to take on long-term contracts that will cripple a company. This is because the big returns and bonuses happen soon and those same people will usually move on from the company before the bad times hit. These recent deals reek of this tendency. (Sole exception was Judge, I think, because he offers such a generational marketing opportunity.)
ReplyDeleteThere may be a few more such deals this year, but there will be chickens coming home to roost. I'm just as happy not to sign the Brandon Nimmos of the world for those sums. And, sure, I like Correa, but not even at the figures Turner or Bogaerts received, and Correa will want materially more. I'd still be OK with Senga and a few more Mitch Hanigers.
Oh well, there will be Machado next year...
ReplyDeleteTeams competing with SF for talent probably slip this line in their pitch: "How would you feel about being pinch hit for in the 5th inning when the other team changes pitchers?"
How much would a couple of $30+ mill a year players help a team whose best everyday player’s bWAR last year was 1.6?
Add 10 wins? Maybe, but they also lose their “best” pitcher, and FZ is not going 5 years or more @ $30M+/year for him – his career high is 178 IP (5.7 innings per start last year) even playing every game of his career with a DH.
The Giants won 12 of their last 16 (.750 winning %) to finish @ .500 – why should a .500 team without a star playing every day think a couple of studs is all they need? Or that they could sign them?
Are top players pining to play in SF?
The time to add the Whiz-Bangs is when you have a good team and it will push you over the top. SF's 2022 record was 8th of 15 in their league, maybe a stud or 2 could get them to the playoffs but to the Promised Land? When your starting 1Bman is LaMonte Wade Jr whose 4-year career bWAR totals 1.6, and you’re not looking to improve that?
Who are the “sure things” coming up in the next couple years that the Giants can promise? Is their sales pitch all on some AA and A+ players? Back in 2019 Joey Bart was the best Giant prospect. It’s also been Heliot Ramos. (Maybe he only got to 2nd before being jumped by another 20 yo.)
On a completely different tack, one of many good things about your blog, Doc, is your language.
Have you tried to read Flavor out loud?
Thank you for the kind words, Theseus. .500 does seem far away from contention but is it really? With Haniger set as the starting RF(cross our fingers for good health), Slater and YtY can platoon CF which leaves LF as an needed add. Moving to the IF, I am fairly bullish on Villar and Davis at the corners, no platoon, let Crawford have a farewell season and Thairo man 2B. Sabol and Wisely have options and can be IF/OF depth in Sacramento and there is Casey Schmitt. Unfortunately the lynchpin if success or failure may rest on the bat of Joey Bart which, my heart tells me he's gonna break out but my head tells me that's a thin reed to lean on.
DeleteOne the pitching side, they definitely need another SP or even two and Senga is my dream but there is Sean Hjelle and Kyle Harrison ready to step up. Then they need a couple of depth pieces behind Doval in the bullpen.
DeleteIn summary, they need an OF but it can be a LF. Conforto on a 1 year deal? SP and RP. They do that and there is enough upside to keep my hopes alive for a postseason berth.
DeleteCorrection: Blake Sabol has options but is a Rule 5 draftee the Giants traded for so has to stay on the 26 man active roster or be offered back to the Pirates.
DeleteIf the Giants ever want to sign a top of the market free agent, the owners have to be willing to make offers that will blow teams out of the water, otherwise it's going to be tough to sign those players. Maybe they had to go up to $400-$425 mil to stand a chance to sign Judge. Maybe that's why they finish 2nd all the time on signing big free agents. Then again maybe they saved them selves from a bad contract later on.
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DeleteYour analysis is excellent if only looking for a playoff team.
Of course, the playoffs in 2023 could make a believer in next year's FAs for 2024.
One step at a time.
Maybe they can buy Correa, an offer he can't refuse, perhaps an option after one year if he does well and SF doesn't, and he's still young.
FZ should find another prove-it starter that works, throw out 2 hooks, and Churn for relief.
Pitchers like to come to SF to prove themselves. There are many unsigned potentials there.
And Taylor Rogers in relief, wouldn't that be a hoot!
If not Correa, then there's no Shiny New Toy but there are plenty to improve the team and it needs it.
6-8 more wins will make the Playoffs and then there is 2024, an even year, 10th anniversary of the 3rd WS win. It could happen, but, as always, Lady Luck, come home.
Postseason is a crapshoot. Getting in is at least 80% of the game.
DeleteDuring an inflationary period, you buy assets earlier, because next year, they will be more expensive.
ReplyDeleteLast year, you didn't say you would spend a lot (compared to the claim you made recently about spending a lot this year).
This year, you say you will, but haven't bought much yet.
Next year, the money you don't spend, the money you save this year will buy less.
That's (salary) inflation for you. (I think this falls under Money Ball...)
That is one way to look at it. The next question you have to ask yourself is if it's an inflationary period or a bubble.
DeleteJust a reminder that the same fanbase that just a few years ago couldn't wait for several 5 year contracts that went bad on the back end to finish now are mad because the Giants seem to be missing out on 9 and 11 year contracts.
ReplyDeleteI read somewhere that some contracts these days are done to reduce the annual pay by lengthening the contract. So, $20 million dollars for 10 years is more like $40 million for 5 years.
DeleteIf so, that makes salary inflation (looks at contracts at their annual pays, rather than just the total amounts) even more pronounced.
Secondly, I think, a few years ago, we were on the descending leg of a sine curve, and wanted to exit some old contracts, in order to sign new ones. And thus those impatient fans couldn't wait. Now, we tell ourselves we are, or believe ourselves that we should be, on the ascending part of the sine curve, and thus, the impatient fans, again, can't wait to see some splashy contracts signed.
Of course, the ownership and management encourage this type of thinking by claiming the desire, and/or having the ability, to spend...a lot...this offseason.
Maybe a more reticent approach is better; on the other hand, you have to be vocal (about stars coming in) in order to sell more tickets though.
I should probably exclude Posey from others owners in that last comment, because he said about a week or so ago that his own experience with those winning years shows that growing your own stars is the way to go.
DeleteThat contrasts with that we-have-a-lot-to-spend-on-free-agents approach.
A big part of the frustration we are seeing is due to expectations created by controlling owner Greg Johnson after the season ended.
DeleteThat's true Doc, just get tired of hearing how the Giants finish 2nd all the time pursuing top level free agents.
ReplyDeleteOn another note heard an interesting interview on you tube with one of my all time favorite Giants Will Clark who works for them and keeps up with Giants farm system. He says Giants farm getting better under FZ. Larry Kruger asked him who is the #1 hitter in the system he would tell FZ not to trade. The 1st player he mentioned was Vaun Brown ,(OF,), and 2nd player mentioned was Casey Schmidt (3rd base). He said Schmidt is a gold glove 3rd baseman already.
ReplyDeleteThere are definitely some bright spots on the farm. It's tough to make up for a series of first round fails, although the jury is still out on some of those. The bright spots are more scattered than you would hope to see in a true talent pipeline.
DeleteIf they really believe in those bright spots, they need to give them opportunity. FZ did mention David Villar as a reason why they could let Evan Longoria go. Haven't heard a word about Sean Hjelle but he deserves a chance to build on a strong finish to last season.
DeleteI'm sure Hjelle will be given a chance in spring training. This is why the jury is still out on the drafts when FZ took over for me. There are still high draft picks like Bart, Hjelle, and even Ramos from before FZ took over who are still trying to establish themselves as major league players
DeleteRe the MAGA issue (if there is one): San Francisco is probably – nay, assuredly – the very last place a "MAGA acolyte" would want to go.
ReplyDeleteOTOH, NY isn't "RED" either – seems like there would be a strong preference for Florida and Texas.
Although Southern, Atlanta is progressive.
All said, sports isn't very political – if Society as a whole were as apolitical as Sports, it would be better world.
Part of that was a failed attempt a humor, although I think the political leanings of the city and region are a potential deterrent to some players who otherwise might be willing to sign with the Giants. I forgot his name now, but there was a relief pitcher who caused a stir by refusing to kneel for the anthem with the rest of the team. That is probably not the only reason he was DFA'd not too much later but I would guess it played a role. It is also possible for people to grow and feel differently after they experience things firsthand. Jeremy Affeldt, for one, has been quite open that he had negative preconceptions about the area when he came to Giants but felt much differently by the time he retired.
DeleteSam Coonrod! No matter what Johnson’s beliefs are I’m pretty sure he believes in turning a profit on his investments. Right now it is really hard to justify what these other teams are doing. It is over the borderline reckless and the smartest thing at this point is to probably let these teams hang themselves with these contracts that will inevitably bite them in the butts.
DeleteOne thought however which seems like a logical move is to convince either Correa or Swanson to come here on a short term for an amount they can’t refuse. Correa especially because of his age and the fact he did it last year with the Twins could be convinced to sign if the terms were something like 2 years 100 million.
Sounds pretty crazy but overpaying by twice as much for 2 years is kind of like giving twice as many years to someone but without the burden of them taking up a roster spot or having dead money the last half of the contracts. This way you pay for the years you really want the player and by the time he is gone you have some of these younger prospects ready to take over. Correa would still get $250+ million in 2 years when he is a FA again at age 30 and we would get his best years and a bridge to our prospects.
That's similiar to what Machado got from the Padres: 5 years/$140M, then a player option: $32M/FA every year for 5 years starting next year.
DeleteHe'll be a FA next year, in his 30 yo year: He thinks he can beat $32M/year. The way things are, why wouldn't he?
I'm wondering if the Giants ownership has problems closing out these huge free agent deals after hearing the Mets owner getting involved at the last minute closing the Nimmo deal., And Yankees ownership closing the Judge deal.
DeleteLG: This is possible. Giants are owned by a consortium and basically have to take a vote whereas teams that are completing these deals have just one owner who can not only say yes in an instant but take over the negotiation.
DeleteGood point Doc. Maybe ownership needs to be asked if they are taking an active enough role closing these deals out. Maybe I'm wrong, but I seem to remember the Giants getting more deals done when Peter Magowan was part of the owner ship group. I thought he was out front in the Barry Bonds signing..
DeleteAt the time, the Bonds signing was the biggest of all time, but that was a unique situation. Magowan was still in the process of buying the team and flew way below the radar and the process moved a lot slower in the pre-digital age. He and his partners at the time wanted to make a big splash to transform the Giants. They did their homework, consulted with experienced people around the league who told them Bonds was a generational player. When they approached him, they had no idea he wanted to be a Giant just as much as they wanted to sign him. They offered him the biggest contract in MLB history and he couldn't sign fast enough. I don't remember if Magowan was the controlling owner when Barry Zito signed but Zito was the only other comparable signing they have ever made.
DeleteStop it!! > Aaron Rowand, Barry Zito Where are you?
ReplyDeleteBuild from the draft and make some good mid season acquisitions AKA the 10 12 and 14 years.
Check the Yankees records on boat anchors
Carlos Correa will never lead us to the promise land nor would Aaron Judgr.
God bless him everyone ( Christmas here) Barry B did not. He was fun to watch
but at the end of the day> we were brides maids in 2002!!
Stop whining like a bunch of wankers!!
Buster, Matty, Timmy,Brandon x 2 and a bunch of mid season additions made the difference.
Farhan needs to stick his slide rule where the son dont shine and spend more on draft and developement.
One or two cazillion dollard signing wont do it.
Dr B forgive my major rant> Oh yeah and England lost today so i am really feeling snarky!!
Richard In Winnipeg
I agree, last run was based on home grown talent with mostly secondary talent, not quite sure they have that now, if they go that route maybe 2 more years .
ReplyDeleteThe Giants won 3 championships in 5 years because they hit the jackpot on three consecutive first round draft picks. That was partly good scouting and partly luck. That is a trifecta that almost never happens in any sport, let alone baseball.
DeleteFWIW, the 4th consecutive 1st Round was Zach Wheeler.
DeleteMaybe some help in 2014.
Maybe with different coaching he wouldn't have lost 2 years to TJ and maybe helped in 2016 – Game 4?
If 2 "if's" isn't bad enough, how bad is 3?
I know I've said this before but I saw Zach Wheeler pitch one of the most dominant games I've seen in Lake Elsinore. One of many young pitchers with early elite velocity to end up losing time to TJ.
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