As a quality analyst in the medical field, I have a motto: One is an event. Two is a trend. Three is a pattern. As early as a year ago, I started posting about a potential troubling trend of poor decisions in the draft since Farhan Zaidi assumed the role of President of Baseball Operations aka "GM". In fairness, poor draft outcomes under Bobby Evans was part of why he was fired, but improved drafting had to be one of the goals ownership had in mind for the new regime. I reviewed the Giants drafts under Bobby Evans and concluded the fails, at least from first round draft picks, were more due to where the Giants drafted than to drafting mistakes as very few players drafted in the 10-15 slots after the Giants were any more successful than the Giants picks.
After four years of drafts under FZ, the ongoing failure of Giants first round draft picks is starting to gain national attention. Just yesterday I read one review who pointed out that the Blue Jays drafted Alek Manoah RHP at #11 in 2019, just one pick after Hunter Bishop OF. Now, I liked Alek Manoah in the 2019 draft and would have been happy if the Giants drafted him, but I had Bishop ranked higher and if it was my decision to make, I would have drafted Bishop. I tend to give drafting teams a pass if there is just one "coulda, shoulda, woulda" player taken in subsequent picks but if they made the only "bad" pick in draft that was subsequently stronger, then something went wrong in the draft process. With that in mind, let's review the 2019 draft and see if we can see what went wrong.
Obviously, the Giants had no control over players picked ahead of them so we'll list them without analysis:
1. Adley Rutschman C, Orioles
2. Bobby Witt Jr. SS, Royals
3. Andrew Vaughn 1B, White Sox
4. JJ Bleday OF, Marlins
5. Riley Greene OF, Tigers
6. CJ Abrams SS, Padres
7. Nick Lodolo LHP, Reds
8. Josh Jung 3B, Rangers
9. Shea Langeliers C, Braves
Rutschman is obviously going to be a huge star for the O's and Langeliers, who was traded to the A's, is looking good enough for them to trade Sean Murphy this Hot Stove League season. In between, several listed players made their MLB debut with varying success. We all know where we stand with Hunter Bishop as the #10 overall pick. A combination of multiple injuries, the lost 2020 season to COVID 19 and an extreme "three true outcomes" approach left him stuck struggling to find traction in A+ ball and unprotected and unselected in the Rule 5 Draft. What about the rest of the first round picks? What has become of them in the intervening 4 seasons? Let's break it down:
11. Alek Manoah RHP, Blue Jays. 2022(MLB): 10-7, 2.24, 196.2 IP, 51 BB, 180 K. Ace level pitcher! Yes, the Giants could have drafted him, but I don't think many analysts were predicting anything close to this level of success for him in scouting reports.
12. Brett Baty 3B, Mets. 2022(AA/AAA): .315/.410/.533, 19 HR, 420 PA. 2022(MLB): .184/.244/.342, 2 HR, 42 PA. Widely considered an signability overdraft, Baty has progressed nicely through the minor leagues and raked at AA/AAA in 2022. His MLB debut did not go so well but it was a SSS and he looks like a future star.
13. Keoni Cavaco SS, Twins. 2022(A+): .231/.275, 397, 11 HR, 7 SB, 396 PA. Late riser in the 2019 draft. Widely considered a raw toolsy project. So far, that is not looking so good for the Twins, although too early to be considered a bust.
14. Bryson Stott SS, Phillies. 2022(MLB): .234/.295/.358, 10 HR, 12 SB, 466 PA, fWAR= 1.4. Stott is the guy I mock drafted to the Giants but I had Bishop ranked higher on my draft board. He was the starting SS for an NL champion Phillies team last season with decent results for a rook, but Trea Turner now the SS in Philly.
15. Will Wilson SS, Angels. 2022(3 levels): .250/.346/.452, 13 HR, 289 PA. FZ essentially bought himself a second first-round draft pick from the 2019 draft by attaching Wilson to the Zack Cozart trade. Wilson has struggled since coming over to the Giants organization then broke a hamate bone just as he seemed to be gaining some traction last season. Could still be a major leaguer as early as 2023, but it's also probably a make-or-break season for him.
16. Corbin Carroll OF, D'Backs. 2022(minor leagues): .307/.425/.610, 24 HR, 31 SB, 442 PA. 2022(MLB): .260/.330/.500, 4 HR, 2 SB. Corbin Carroll is an example of why I believe it's best to shoot for the best player available in the first round and let the rest of the draft take care of itself. Yes, Grant McCray is a nice overslot pick in round 3, but right now we would prefer to have a Corbin Carroll in the Giants organization than Bishop, Wilson and McCray combined.
17. Jackson Rutledge RHP, Nationals. Struggling in the lower minors.
18. Quinn Priester RHP, Pirates. Pitched well through 4 levels including AAA last year. Should make MLB debut in 2023
19. Zack Thompson LHP, Cardinals. 2.08 ERA in 34.2 IP for the Cards MLB team in 2022.
20. George Kirby RHP, Mariners. Established MLB SP.
Out of the next 10 players drafted after Bishop at #10, 6 have reached the major leagues. One is an established ace level pitcher(Manoah), one is a solid rotation SP(Kirby), One looks like a sure thing future start(Carroll). Cavaco and Rutledge are the only two likely busts.
Bishop put up great numbers in college and was ranked highly on most draft boards, but there were at least a couple of red flags: A high K rate and a pronounced dropoff in performance against better competition. It would be interesting to know the Giants internal scouting report and discussions here but it appears the 2019 draft was a missed opportunity to significantly upgrade the organizational talent level.
Just call it what it is. Bishop is a bust and has no future on this team. Farhans drafting has been crap
ReplyDeleteGreat analysis
ReplyDeleteBishop's approach to hitting in college was good, yes, when the pitching wasn't.
ReplyDeleteHis first professional year began 4 days after his 21st birthday, and he was assigned to S-K 16 days later. In his first 25 games in A-, he walked 29 times and struck out 28.
Then came 2020 and the Covid year.
Since he's been on a downward track.
At Eugene last year, Bishop struck out nearly 3 times as often as he walked and 37% of AB's, but when he did hit the ball he hit it well with about a third of his hits being for extra bases. Plus he's pretty fast with 20 steals in 22 attempts. His BABIP of .328 could imply hitting the ball hard.
This is may be overly simplistic, but he swings at everything! He'd probably strike out less if he didn't swing until he got 2 strikes, at least until the pitchers figured that out, but maybe they wouldn't.
Correa was on KNBR (when he was going to be a Giant) talking about his own approach to hitting, how he won't swing early in a count unless it's in "his zone" to drive it, and he knows his zone.
Certainly, Bishop must be getting a lot of personal coaching – is he listening?
How about pairing him with Bonds, put Barry in his pocket this Spring? Certainly, Bishop would look up to Bonds, listen to him.
Hopefully, he got the message last month: he was left unprotected, no one wanted to take a flyer on him, not even teams with small parks where his power would thrive – if he hits the ball. His Steamer projection is regressive. Has he hit bottom?
Re help from Bonds: Could he or would he help a fellow Arizona State alum?
DeleteTheir final seasons as "Juniors" @ ASU (Bishop was a year older than Bonds) were quite similar as well as very good. Bishop had 280 PAs, Bonds had 282. In some areas Bishop was better than Bonds, notably SLG & OBP, but in strikeouts he was very worse. Bishop was either walked or HBP in more than 20% of his plate appearances. He hit a HR in every 20 ABs that he wasn't walked or hit.
Barry was good from the get-go in pro ball, Hunter has not been good other than "flashes" but ultimately he just doesn't "connect" consistently. He strikes out far too much and increasingly so.
Can someone get through to him?
Reference:
https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/player/1094/
https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/player/204102/
10th pick sure has some lore to it!
ReplyDeleteTimmy "The Franchise" Lincecum - who singlehandedly revived a ton of Giants fans (including me for sure!) from their frustrations and slumbers of boring baseball. 2006 draft!
Michael Tucker - the unlucky gent the Giants decided to punt a draft pick by deliberately signing before deadline when nobody else would touch him way back in 2003/4! 1992 draft!
Stoner Phil Bickford! Toronto drafted him - he didn't sign. The Giants would draft him later. He's still pretty much a bust. 2013 draft for the blue jays!
Just getting warmed up. The GOAT for the Giants - Madison Bumgarner in the fabled Gigante 2007 draft. One of the best Giants drafts ever! The sneaky genius of Sabean was all the selling that went on - the Freddy Sanchez trade for prospect hound favorite Tim Alderson stirred the interwebz back in the day! And monitoring every Bum start was amazing. I'm going to just remember back to October 31st 2010 one of my favorite days ever and have a moment of zen. 2007 draft!
1989 draft Montreal drafted a guy named Charles Johnson - he didn't sign... not THAT Charles Johnson - the absolutely horrible owner who needs to sell our favorite team pronto - he had a great career catching after being re-drafted by the Marlins. 1989 draft!
2014 the Mets drafted Michael Conforto! He's currently being considered by the Giants as a FA! Because life is hilarious. Injury risk? What injury risk? 2014 draft!
only 10 #10 picks have NOT made the show. Hunter Bishop has some big expectations. I was in favor of the pick. Injuries suck.
Top 5 #10 picks overall - Mark McGuire, Robin Ventura, Ted Simmons, Tim Wallach, Eric Chavez. That's a whole lot of infield hitting prowess!
It's a very special pick for Los Gigantes that created magic.
Thanks for the analysis!
A lot of great names in there, Shankbone.
DeleteToo bad Bishops failure pales in comparison to the aborted Correa signing
ReplyDeleteI am as disappointed as anyone over the Correa fiasco but the social media meltdown over it is an overreaction, IMO.
DeleteI’m guilty as anyone for overreacting but the organization definitely did not handle this well. If they can field a winning team, all will be forgiven.
DeleteI hope to be proven wrong, but personally I feel nixing the Correa deal has done an immeasurable amount of damage to the Giants brand. Having no one from representing the team talk to the media makes it worse. If they had to overpay for a free agent before, it's going to be even more now. Also, the fans are starting to turn on the team and ownership.
DeleteIt was not handled well, for sure.
DeleteLooks like the Mets have concerns too, maybe Giants did dodge one?
DeleteBut the 2020 draft could turn out to be the best Giants draft ever and it only went 5 rounds.
ReplyDeleteIt could......
DeleteThree things have to happen to make the non-signing on Correa a disaster:
Delete1. He must stay healthy, better than he has been. Excluding 2020, his games/year going backwards are: 136, 148, 75, 110, 109, 153, 99
2. His fWAR must go up, and much better in the front loaded years than it has been (assuming the back end of the contract won't be anywhere nearly as good). Excluding 2020, his fWAR’s going backwards are: 4.4, 6.2, 3.8, 3.4, 5.0, 3.9, 3.4
3. He'll need a surrounding cast to perform, better than the Giants have been year-to-year lately, excepting the 2021 anomaly. Where will that come from? Doc's blog, especially the reader comments, don't express a lot of confidence in the farm and the drafting of the last 4-10 years, especially in recent comments about FZ and his picks.
One player does not make a team: look at the glory years of Barry Bonds one World Series - lost.
Look at the 3 WS winners: was there one player carrying the team? Arguably you could say Posey in the last 2, but that's overlooking the supporting cast, especially the pitching.
IMHO, the Giants dodged a very bad contract, and they haven't said "Why" – their comment is that they are prohibited from expressing medical results.
Why, in our collective disappointment, don't we give them the benefit of the doubt?
BTW, next year's FAs don't look too shabby: Ohtani will be signable which Judge never was, Machado has 3 years of better fWARs than Correa ever had plus his overall numbers are better than Correa's – and, he never cheated.
IMO the Giants farm system is better than what the people who are furious with Farhan make it seem and not as good as the In Farhan We Trust folks want to think.
DeleteNever liked the pick because he was a half a year wonder in College. If you want to gamble, do it on a young player with exceptional tools like Corbin or Leiter. Also funny thing, I’m pretty Evans would’ve had drafted Manoah because he had a track record of drafting giant sized pitchers.
ReplyDelete