As the late Raiders radio announcer Bill King would say, Holy Toledo! There was just something that felt vaguely ominous about the way the last minute cancellation of the press conference to announce the Giants signing of Carlos Correa SS went down yesterday. Turns out our worst fears came true. The deal is cancelled. Apparently the Giants are the ones who pulled out over a medical issue. Before the evening was over, Correa signed with the Mets for 12 years/$312 M or 1 yr/$38 M less than the agreement with the Giants.
At this time, it is not known what the medical issue was. Beat writer Susan Slusser stated the doctors disagreed. It's a bit unclear what that means. Did the doctors hired by the Giants disagree with Correa's docs? Dld Giants non-medical personnel disagree with the docs? We may never know. I don't recall anything close to this happening with a major free agent contract before. The history of players who fail post-draft physicals does not bode well for Correa or the Mets. He has a history of missing time with a variety of injuries although none besides a back issue seemed likely to be a dealbreaker on a contract.
Only time will tell if this turns out to be a dodged bullet for the Giants and their fans. In the short term it is an unmitigated disaster. There are no comparable players left on the free agent market. The Giants just went from being a team that could compete with any team in MLB to a likely non-playoff contender with no way to make up the lost ground. Longer term, the Giants were already perceived as an organization which struggled to attract top end free agent talent. Will future free agents look at this as treachery and another reason to put them on their Do Not Go There list? We may analyze the ripple effects of this non-deal for many years to come.
Turns out the Giants and Correa's medical teams disagreed on some unnamed finding in his medical report. Apparently the Mets disagreed with the Giants too although as someone on Twitter pointed out, the fact that the Mets deal is for significantly less suggests it was not a zero-risk issue.
ReplyDeleteor the premium for getting a guy to sign with this team in SF?
DeleteAt least it will be fun to root for Schmitt and Harrison making their debuts and to see crawford finish his last year of his contract at SS. Plus whatever the churn turns up.
Wether Giants dodged a bullet or not is not what we want to hear. As a life long Giants fan, I will defer my attendance till they actually put a product on the field that is meaningful. Can we bring Sabean back? At least he spend money for better or for worse.
DeleteA few years from now we might find out the Giants dodged a huge bullet. That said, today the franchise looks pretty bad to the common fan. Right or wrong social media is already blowing up asking for heads to roll.
ReplyDeleteGiants just limited themselves to this one FA after missing the last few years, so missing him adds a extra sting.
I wonder if they turn to the trade market now, they had to be some desperation with all the noise. Do we overpay for a Bryan Reynolds type? Do we empty the farm for a year of ohtani // head start to signing him?
There is a line in Pavs' article that may be telling. "Sources said earlier this month that the Giants had concerns about Correa's previous back issues and SOME GIANTS OFFICIALS REMAINED WORRIED EVEN AFTER HE AGREED TO THE LONG-TERM DEAL..." The more I meditate on this, the more I believe this deal was probably owner driven and Farhan was never on board and looking for something he could use to persuade ownership to back out.
DeleteOn the Locked on MLB podcast, Sully makes a big point that the team looking really good right now is the Astros. Hm...who just came over from the Astros front office to be the Giants GM? Yep, Peppermint Pete! Gotta wonder if Pete Putila might have stuck his hand up in the back of the room and expressed some things.
DeleteThe Giants aren't looking good now. Did they bungle this situation? Why was the press conference scheduled before the physical was completed . Boros said the Giants had time to work something out but never called back. The Giants owe the fans an explanation as to what happened. I agree that it sure looks like it was ownership who had cold feet since this was a huge free agent potential signing. I thought at 1st FZ had something to do with it, but don't think so now
DeleteUltimately ownership has to approve a deal of this magnitude and would also have to approve backing out, but it is my understanding that baseball people generally hate megadeals like this and Farhan more than most. It was Greg Johnson who opened his mouth about the "slugger in New York and the four shortstops" on the market to something to that effect at the postseason presser. Not saying FZ and Pete were entirely unhappy to let ownership go get them an all-star caliber player, but I do think they were the ones whose doubts about the baseball wisdom of the deal finally won out and convinced Johnson and the ownership group to back out.
DeleteThere is nothing wrong with the Giants walking away from the Correa deal because of a failed physical. Listened to a podcast with Ned Colletti, former Giants assistant GM, and he said any thing is possible as to why the deal fell apart. Won't know until we hear more from the Giants. The part that made no sense to him is why the Giants called a press conference and cancelled it at the last minute.
DeleteI've read interesting articles by Jeff passan and Baggs that Giants doctors had legitimate/obvious concerns after the exam on the long term stability of Correa's right leg due to a broken fibula he suffered in 2014 as a minor league player . Boros even called the Twins after the Giants backed out, and they wanted time to check out what the Giants found, so the Mets swooped in. I'm not a medical professional and I won't put you on the spot for your medical opinion as to whether the broken fibula should raise long term health concerns for the player, but this was a 13 year contract. But maybe I should have waited for more details of the story to come out before implying the Giants may have been too cautious about this. Maybe they dodged a bullet here.
DeleteWay out of my area of expertise. I know Jack Youngblood, the great defensive end for the Rams once played in a Superbowl on an acutely fractured fibula, but that was just one game. From what I read about Correa's 2019 injury it was more than just a simple fibula fracture so the "carpenters" might have seen something concerning on an image. Unreliable source, but I read the "physical" was done at a highly respected orthopedic facility. My guess is it's a legitimate concern but with a speculative long term outcome so room for disagreement. I can certainly understand being conservative when the risk is $350 M over 13 years. In retrospect I'm guessing both sides might want a day or two between the evaluation and the press conference instead of trying prescheduling the presser for the very next morning.
DeleteThanks for your sensible medical explanation on what might have happened here. It was upsetting the way the Correa signing fell through, as you can imagine, but as more information comes out its making a little more sense.. The Giants have the right to back out on a 13 year mega deal especially due to the player not passing a physical. I still want to hear the Giants side in the future . I totally get the part of having a legitimate medical concern with a speculative long term outcome.
DeleteThe defensive problems on the left side is probably solved with Schmidt. He plays a flawless a SS and third and will hit for average and continue to get better. The pitching will be fine. Good job shoring up staff for now. The issue is how do they score runs. Hopefully Hanniger stay relatively healthy and maybe Braun gets called up sooner than later. We somehow need to improve offensive production
ReplyDeleteI know I'm a dreamer but I have this crazy idea that if Davis and Villar both get 500 PA's they'll combine for 60 HR's. I can also envision Wade Jr having a big season if he stays healthy. The Giants really, really need Joey Bart to break out.
DeleteSuper hard to envision Joey Bart coming anywhere near breaking out at this point. I think we know who he is.
DeleteThe other question I'm wondering about is are the Giants too overly cautious with these big contracts?
DeleteI share your dream.
DeleteOne thing is certain: Steve Cohen and the Mets are making a mockery of MLB and the Players Association. A relative few are benefiting while some good American cities are relegated to a 2nd class position with teams that have "none chance" of competing. The luxury tax alone that the Mets will pay is greater than the total payroll of nearly a dozen teams.
ReplyDeleteWho not living in New York is excited about a NYC World Series?
Even the Megalopolis in Southern California can't compete!
Surprisingly, the relatively "homey" cities of Philadelphia and San Diego are trying to compete outspending Greater LA, but they will need a lot of luck to overtake the maniacs in NY.
Yes, I don't get the commentators out there in social media land who are saying that Cohen is good for baseball. I am all for players getting paid a wage commensurate with their impact on the game and on the financial success of the team that employs them, but what's happening right now with these 10+ year contracts and the concentration of talent into big market teams and teams with ultra-rich owners makes essentially disenfranchises fans of over half the teams which is not good for MLB or baseball.
DeleteI'm glad that this deal fell through. Between Schmitt, Villar, and Luciano, the Giants should be set for infielders for the near future. Saddling the team with a 13 year contract for possible damaged goods would've been counter productive.
ReplyDeleteI totally agree. The long term, sustainable approach is to develop your own stars, plus other farm hands whom you may trade to obtain more young stars (which we could not do this past summer due to the tepid demand for some, or perhaps many, of our prospects).
DeleteOn the other hand, I can understand what ownership and management are thinking - they have to sell tickets. This is a big market team. You can do the wait-and-let-the-deal-come-to-you with free agents you deem supplementary or non-core (but with perhaps good or great upside reward). With free agents who will be the main or core players on the team, there will be tension between the baseball people and marketing staff. The latter would prefer more certainty as soon as possible to get their start-your-dreaming campaign going.
26M per year isn't going to cripple a team with the pockets the Giants have, especially when no other contracts are on the books a couple years from now. 10 years from now that 26M is probably utility player money at the rate contracts are growing. If Correa was worth 5+ WAR for a handful of years while you try and grow your own core pieces it would have been worth it. Joc Pederson looking like the #3 hitter on this team.
ReplyDeleteThe long term outlook hasn't really improved since 2018 when FZ took over, and that's sad because we bottomed out with some good draft picks in those early years.
Well, now one can dream of the left side fill with Luciano or Arteaga and Schmitt in 2024 and enjoy a well deserved farewell tour of Crawford in 2023 !!!
ReplyDeleteAs good as Correa is, I was under the impression he was not the right free agent for the Giants. Let's built the team around our kid
I am so glad they backed out! Correa is 28 years old. He's at the sweet-spot of athleticism and skill building for athletes. He will continue to build skills for years, but his athleticism will decline, slowly at first, but 35 it'll really drop and he will be unfit for the position. Over the last 62 years only 20 players have managed to play SS at 35-and-older and accumulate 1000+ PAs. Six of them managed to accumulate 10 or more fWAR.
ReplyDeleteThe best was Ozzie Smith, who was a genetic freak to begin with, who accumulated 18.1 fWAR over 6 seasons. However, his offense kicked the bucket in his age 38 season and his defense, which had already been slowly degrading for years took a nose dive as well. Over his last four years Smith earned 5.3 fWAR.
That's about $22 million/fWAR. For the production you can get out of a $3 million infielder like Jace Peterson.
It would incredibly unreasonable to believe a guy with a history of back-problems will be playing well at 35, never mind 41. Or have we forgotten Scutaro not being able to come back when his back got hurt. Or how Panik was never the same defensively after he hurt his back never mind the concussion that seemed to really impact his ability to hit and turned a promising career into journeyman and, eventually, out-of-baseball with an early retirement.
In general, it seems to me, the best time to get a marquee free agent is
Delete1. when you have a bunch of young stars emerging and you wan to add to that to make the team even more competitive
or
2. when you just won 100 games, or more, in the most recent season. Everyone, or just not a few, wants to join a winner (or a perceived winner).
Although no one needed to shed a tear for Brandon Crawford, he'll go out as he and his fans wanted: Giant SS G.O.A.T. from beginning to end.
ReplyDeleteKinda nice.
Maybe his Brandon Brother will take a game-played-performance-based contract for 2023.
Too bad the Giants didn't get a center fielder in the draft, but YtY services, and there are several in the system in Doc's Top 9: Matos, McCray, & Brown.
For the Farhan haters, On Doc's Top 50:
3 of top 4 are FZ's (Luciano isn’t)
8 of top 10 are also (+ Matos)
11 of top 14 (+ Pomares)
14 of top 18 (+ Ramos)
17 of top 22 (+ Cruz)
26 of top 32 (+ Rodriguez)
Many remember and remind us FZ's First Round 1 loser (Bishop, and maybe Bednar), but forget the many not-so-great 1st round choices for the Giants since 2010 (Gary Brown, Kyle Crick, Christian Arroyo, Tyler Beede, Chris Shaw, Phil Bickford), the NO choice in 2016, and the maybe good choices Bart and Ramos.
Or trading away the first choice in 2009.
Or the 2008 1st round supplemental – who was that? Conor Gillaspie.
The Giants had SIX – 6 – 1st round choice and supplementals in 2007 (fortunately the first one was MadBum).
More not so good choices in 1st rounds? Emmanuel Burriss, David Aardsma, Craig Whitaker, Todd London, and Boof Bonser (!) – all 1st round and 1st round supplementals since 2000.
Most of those guys were picked under Brian Sabean who did turn things around with the 3-in-a-row 2006-7-8 (plus the winner in 2009 traded away).
The point is always look at the whole body of work: Although FZ's first 2 picks were Bishop and Wyatt, the future, even if he doesn't last to see it, should be good. His 3rd pick, Grant McCray, might be the Giants CFer of the future.
I remember Sabean was criticized as well for those first round misses.
DeleteThose who did then, as well as now, can at least be said to be consistent. The same critics perhaps expect more from FZ, assuming life in general involves progress (for example, 21st century medicine vs. 18th century health care, or internet connection today vs. 10 years ago).
All true. But a couple of these guys need to break through and break out this year.
DeleteIs it too far fetched to think maybe the Giants didn’t sell as many season tickets as they thought they would have after this signing and decided to pull the plug?
ReplyDeleteCorrea wasn’t enough to move the needle and bring back enough fans so they blamed some pre-MLB injury and bailed. I wasn’t a fan of signing Correa until he was ours and now that he is gone I don’t miss him all that much but I do think we look like a complete joke of an organization.
It is painful, embarrassing, and frustrating as a fan of a team that is being mismanaged like this but the silver lining is that after the 2023 season they can blame all of this mess on Farhan and hopefully fire him.
Yeah, I remember those 1st round picks you mentioned being busts, and was critical of Sabes back then. FZ was brought in with the expectations of the farm system producing help for the major league team. FZ deserves some criticism with some top prospects taking a step back. But hiring Pete Putila might be good since he has extensive background in player development. It seems to me that it's too early to judge the farm system yet under FZ since he's only been involved in 4 drafts, a small sample size plus the 2020 minor league was lost. McCray is an interesting prospect drafted in 2019 out of high school. I think Doc would agree most high school prospects need 5-6 years in the minors to make it to the Big leagues. Also like Trevor McDonald High school pitcher drafted in 2019.
ReplyDeleteFZ and his scouting staff deserve credit for the emergence of some of the lower round draft picks but at some point you have to get production from a first round pick or two. Yes, it is still too early to judge all but Hunter Bishop, but the trend is worrisome. And hey! Maybe Hunter Bishop stays healthy and breaks out in 2023?
DeleteI was lukewarm on the Correa deal all along. But today’s events were something of a tire fire.
ReplyDeleteAnother angle to this: If FZ felt worried about his future he would have tried to save the day, instead what he thought was the best decision for the longer term. Enthusiasm is deflated, once you start caving to fan pressure there is no stopping.
ReplyDeleteJust saw this on ESPN from Jeff Passan- Seems the injury in question was..."Their concerns were with Correa's lower right leg, which had been surgically repaired in 2014 after he broke his fibula on a slide during a minor league game." Wow. If that is correct than seems likely that Farhan was looking for a way to back out of the Correa contract. A broken leg injury that he has been playing on for the last 8 years?
ReplyDeleteRead the article also. The Giants doctors seem to think this broken fibula injury in 2014 raises concerns as to whether his leg will hold up long term playing SS. This was a 13 year contract. The Twins wanted to check it out too after Boros went back to them. I'm not a medical professional but want to hear the Giants side of this once it's ok to do so.
DeleteSee my reply to LG's excellent question back up in the thread.
Delete