In a somewhat surprising move today, the Giants formally declared Tommy La Stella 1B/DH to be a sunk cost and designated him for assignment despite owing him $11.5 M on a heavily backloaded final year of his 3-year contract. A move was necessary to make room on the 40-man roster for Taylor Rogers LHP and was an indicator that the easy roster decisions have already been made. I really thought the Giants would try to keep La Stella on the roster into spring training to see if he was healthy enough to play 2B. There is another move coming up as soon as they formally sign Michael Conforto OF that will likely hurt more.
The move does seem to create some clarity for the roster going forward which barring a trade or an unexpected free agent signing is likely close to set going into spring training. The Giants are likely to carry 13 non-pitchers on the Opening Day active roster including Joc Pederson who will mainly DH leaving 5 OF's, 5 IF's and 2 C. There appear to be 4 IF locks: Brandon Crawford SS, Thairo Estrada 2B/SS, Wilmer Flores 3B/2B/1B and J.D. Davis 3B/1B. Marco Luciano will certainly start the season in the minor leagues. That leaves David Villar 3B/2B/1B, Isan Diaz 2B/SS? and Brett Wisely IF(he's played all 4 IF positions in the minors). All 3 have options so there is room to add another infielder to the roster and still keep all three. One option would be to swing Lamonte Wade Jr between the OF and 1B which would allow them to carry Blake Sabol OF/C who cannot be optioned due to his Rule 5 Draft status.
Here is how the 13 non-pitching roster spots might play out to maximize player capital:
Catchers: Joey Bart, Austin Wynns
IF: J.D. Davis 3B, Brandon Crawford SS, Thairo Estrada 2B, Wilmer Flores 1B/3B/2B/DH, Lamonte Wade Jr 1B
OF: Mitch Haniger RF, Michael Conforto LF, Mike Yastrzemski CF, Austin Slater CF/LF, RF and Blake Sabol LF
DH/LF Joc Pederson.
Of course we'll see who gets DFA'd when they formally sign Conforto but I think it will most likely be one of 3 pitchers: Yunior Marte RHP, Sam Long LHP or Thomas Szapucki LHP.
Although I don't know about the rest, I will say this:
ReplyDeleteGetting rid of it leaving David Villar, aka the most exciting reason to watch this team in 2022, would be an extremely silly move. If you have to get rid of somebody, get rid of Wade.
I know you will hate this but Wade Jr has one thing Villar doesn't: A lefthanded bat. The guy who most closely matches Villar's profile is Wilmer Flores and I highly doubt Flores is going anywhere, although I'm still scratching my head about why they gave him a 3 year deal when they had much younger, arguably better, comparable players in Villar, Davis and Schmitt. Villar has options so starting him back in Sacramento as depth would not exactly be getting rid of him. On the other hand, Villar doesn't have anything left to prove in Sacramento and has 30 HR upside. I agree that other than hoping against hope for a Joey Bart breakout, Villar and J.D. Davis are the most exciting Giants position players looking forward to the season.
DeleteHello Dr. B. Thanks for the insight. I agree with you - I was also scratching my head with the Wilmer Flores extension. But The Giants love acquiring/keeping 'experienced' guys over taking a risk on a younger player (often one of their home grown).
ReplyDeleteIn 2014, they had a guy who, without a huge reputation, went thru the minors doing nothing but hitting HR. He played 3B, but was not a stellar defender. They could have stuck with him there, But they really wanted Casey McGehee. They could have tried to move him to LF. But they really wanted Nori Aoki there. So they got rid of Adam Duvall.
In 2018, they had a similar guy, talented, but without a huge reputation, who did nothing but play well thru the minors. He was even a talented defender - he could play all 3 OF positions, including CF. And he always could hit. They could have given him a shot. But they already had Gorkys Hernandez in CF, and really wanted Andrew McCutchen, a true CF, if the Hernandez thing did not work out. So they got rid of Bryan Reynolds.
Today, they have David Villar - a guy who looks like he could hit 30 HR - in the majors - if given 500 AB. Heck, he hit 9 or 10 last year, in 150 odd AB. But they will likely start him back in AAA - where he does not belong - just so they can keep Wilmer Flores or Austin Slater or Blake Sabol.
They have been that way for at least 10 years. They always seem to go for the high floor-limited ceiling types, rather than roll the dice on those who are the other way around.
Which is why, as a Giants fan for the last 50-odd years, I see this year's team coming in at or around .500.
Meanwhile, they'll patiently wait for Mac Williamson and Jarrett Parker. When the former pays off, he gets a silly concussion. The latter? A dumb broken collarbone.
DeleteMakes me wonder if we're just cursed. Still, better to play them and they fizzle than to move them elsewhere where they start and star.
Giants "got rid" of Adam Duvall at the 2015 trade deadline trying to stay in the 2015 race, swapping him for Mike Leake. Duvall was in the minors at the time, having had a callup with the Giants the year before. Had he done better than slash .192/.234/.342 in 77 plate appearances, perhaps they might not have traded for McGehee.
DeleteIn any event, it wasn’t 3B that doomed the Giants in 2015: they had another 3B prospect in the system, Matt Duffy, who was called up in 2015, played very well at 3B, and was 2nd for ROY with a 4.4 fWAR.
Duvall has a total fWAR of 11.1 in his 9-year career, having achieved an fWAR between 2.0 and 2.7 3 times, and being below 1.0 in the other 6 years.
Thank you, Theseus. IDK why some folks just can't seem to get past Duvall. Yes, he has hit a few HR's in his career but he has been a below average player by WAR most of his career.
DeleteDuvall wasn't all that and a bag of chips. He was a mediocre defender at 3B due to his inability to get the ball to first base on a consistent basis. He ended up being an okay major league player once he was moved to the OF where his inability to make accurate throws wasn't such a burden. But he wasn't particularly special in the majors. And of his 10.4 bWAR, 5.3 of it came in 2016 & 2017, the only two seasons where his bWAR was 2.0 or higher.
DeleteCorrect me if I am wrong Doc. I seem to recall at some point the Giants were concerned about Duvall"s D! His only fault in my review was that he never hit for great average yet his power and D War rating were/are excellent.
ReplyDeleteGreat post by the earlier poster by our history of moving past our own Ie Duvall and Reynolds
Happy New Year!
Richard in Winnipeg
As Theseus documented above, Duvall has been a below average player by WAR most of his career.
DeleteDuvall's minor league was reputed to be a below average defender but mostly played 3B in the minors. He's ended up as a plus defensive OF. In fairness, he's earned about 2.5 fWAR and 32 HR per 600 PA but that comes with a .289 career OBP and negative offensive run production. So, I don't quite get the ongoing hand wringing over the Duvall trade in some corners of Giants fandom.
DeleteGood morning Doc. Not to further hijack this topic but... I am curious about where this Giant's off-season goes next? I was hoping to get your thoughts, and opinions on who the Giants might still bring onboard for 2023? Free agency, trades, DFA's and other non conventional means of player acquisitions. I think we all agree there are still holes to be patched if not repaired. Who strikes your fancy? Either from an emotional attraction to a more stat driven appeal, where do you see the 'Churn-driven ' machine looking at next. I will confess that I believe and hope that this is still a work in progress for the upcoming season. Eager to hear your musings!
ReplyDelete(Long term Fan..1953 was my first Giants game, in Tokyo, as a young boy with my father. It was their tour of the Far East and my father was stationed in Japan with the Army. I have never looked back in frustration!) Now I am living in Boston and still bleed 'Black and Orange, so I appreciate your Blog more than you might ever know! Thank you again for your years of thought and effort for all of our diaspora around the Web!
best,
Kevin in Boston
Oh wow! Thank you for the kind words, Kevin. I am actually OK if FZ stands pat at this point. I guess the things I would really like to see are not what most fans are looking for. I want to see if a healthy Lamonte Wade Jr can regain his 2021 form. I look at Blake Sabol's AAA numbers and see a potentially exciting MLB level bat, at least good enough to be a 5'th OF. I really want to see what David Villar and J.D. Davis can do with 500 PA's. On the pitching side I guess I'm way higher on Sean Hjelle than most analysts and want to see what he can do with a bulk innings role.
DeleteMaybe a dude who can go get it in CF, and not necessarily overpaying for Bryan Reynolds, would be a good get, but then they would have to trade either YtY or Austin Slater which would not break my heart either, especially if it got them a good prospect or two.
DeleteThey could also use a reserve middle infielder who can really pick it at SS.
DeleteHappy New Year Doc, thanks again for your great takes on your blog. Wondering if a major trade could happen in the spring. I believe FZ has said everything is on the table this off season. They have been very transparent on their intensions, maybe too transparent in my opinion. What about trading for Rafiel Devers if he becomes available. He's a free agent in 2024. Oh Alexander Suarez had a nice stat line in single A, interesting that he's Luis matos cousin. Also not closing the book on Correa until he signs, what a bizzare story
ReplyDeleteDevers would be nice as long as they didn't have to empty out the farm system for him. He's a 1 year rental. Speaking of, I MLBTR says the Padres are looking to trade Ha-Seong Kim. He, Crawford and Estrada would make a sweet triumvirate up the middle.
DeleteDoubt the Padres would trade with the Giants though.
DeleteMaybe the Red Sox might like Yazstremski for Devers
DeleteIt would take a lot more than YtY for Devers.
DeleteHow about Elvis? Solidify the middle of the infield, back up Craw against LH pitchers, would he come, would Giants want him?
ReplyDeletePossible
DeleteAndrus has never played anywhere but SS.
DeleteNo one year rentals. Period. They never work out and are always an overpay. None of the championship teams had one year rentals. Follow this lead and only purchase what will be helpful longterm.
ReplyDeleteAccording to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal (subscription required), the Orioles might move shortstop Jorge Mateo if the right deal is out there. That's because Baltimore has a lot of young middle-infield talent coming up through the organizational ranks, which might make Mateo expendable. The 27-year-old led the AL with 35 steals and played excellent defense at short in 2022.
ReplyDeleteMateo is interesting. Terrible K/BB but there is the speed and plus defense at SS, 2B and all 3 OF positions. Wouldn't want to give up a lot for him.
DeleteJoey Wendle might be available for cheap from the Marlins. They might take Brett Wisely who has options for Wendle who is in 3'rd year of arbitration. Giants could then offer Wendle a 2-3 year deal at a lower AAV than his projected arbitration award.
Delete